Seems low key and a dud like monkeypox was. WHO recently put out some feeler posts and for the first time I saw them get ripped on facebook (they always got blasted on Twitter but now it's everywhere). They might try put something out but it probably won't stick if there's no other crisis attached to it.

Am I delusional or is this an arb opportunity:

a) PredictIt: Will Kamala Harris be the 47th U.S President? NO -285 ($0.74 KAMALA NOT 47th PREZ)
b) Bovada "Will Biden finish his first term as president?" NO +440 ($0.185 KAMALA 47th PREZ) + "U.S. Presidential Election Kamala Harris" +5000 ($0.02 KAMALA 47th PREZ)

Am I missing something besides PredictIt regulatory risk?

Edit: NVM, failed to consider Harris being VP on 2024 ticket and Biden not finishing second term. Let this be a lesson in thinking.

Went to Betfair to check out the latest odds, and alas, they no longer will even let me see their site. Besides a VPN, is there a way to see their stuff?

These are the odds in general.

2024 Next Elected President

Biden +215
Trump +120

US Presidential Election (Which Party Will Win)

Dems +110
Republicans -112

Looking for a way to see their site.

Colorado Supreme Court removes Trump from 2024 ballot based on 14th Amendment’s ‘insurrectionist ban’

Pretty insane, probably gets overturned in the Supreme Court though.

Did Trump ever get convicted of some crime that would qualify as insurrection or rebellion or giving aid to the US's enemies? It seems like he would have to get convicted of that before a court could then rule or whether he should be disqualified on account of the 14th Amendment. I didn't really pay attention to the Jan 6 commission, but I didn't think that convicted him of insurrection in any legally binding way.

Negative. And he was on camera telling the people to protest peacefully and patriotically. Never once did he tell anybody to break into the Capitol. Also the only "insurrection" (if you really want to to call it that) in history where the people didn't take up arms. No a spray or two doesn't count.

Truly blows my mind how high Vivek and Scott traded at various points on the R side, there was never any chance of the Republican party nominating a black man or a brown dude with a funny name, especially when brown dude with a funny name basically shows up to be Trump's cuck and basically worship him in debates he doesn't feel like showing up to.

The only R who ever had a chance to topple Trump was DeSantis and his window closed very quickly after the campaign began because he's basically Trump but less charismatic and more socially awkward and unlikable.

I also feel like Trump is a dog to almost anyone in a general despite Biden's general unpopularity, a lot of sane Rs would be a fav over Biden but Trump is poison to moderates when they're reminded who he is and obviously energises the hell out of the D base which is Biden's biggest problem. It's a lot easier to convince Ds who are apathetic about Biden to vote if the alternative is Trump being President again.

Remember the general hasn't started yet and the R candidates are overwhelmingly scared to attack Trump because it turns off the base they need other than Chris Christie who isn't actually running to win, he's running to look good in the history books as the Republican who stood up to Trump if the party pivots in a new direction post-Trump if he loses badly in 2024 so he isn't actually experiencing a bruising primary and being attacked by anyone other than Chris Christie who does not have much of a voting constituency, since basically Republicans who don't like Trump are now conservative leaning independents after Trump's term so they're not going to be a force in Republican primaries

It's way too soon to get involved, the value is probably on Biden specifically as opposed to generic D as there is no way he is dropping out or not winning the D nom barring health concerns and while he is old as **** he is in good health for his age and isn't going to not run if he's able to, you have to have a certain level of ego to become President, this is the culmination of his life's work and he isn't going to voluntarily give it up unless he has serious health concerns. I quite liked Biden at like +500 mid first term because inexplicably people thought he wouldn't run again but didn't really get set so whatever.

At this stage I don't see any reason to tie up any funds anywhere since the only way Trump isn't the R nominee is if he's legally barred from running and while he almost certainly did commit crimes, I can't see any 12 person jury in America giving him jail time due to it being borderline impossible to find a jury that doesn't have a right winger on it and if he isn't legally barred from running there is no way the Republican base nominates anyone else.

Biden at +235 is good imo but not rushing to tie up funds on it either

Kennedy at +2600 is a firm lay on Betfair, so is Vivek at +9500 and Haley at +1000 since the only way she can be the R nominee is if Trump dies or is barred from running legally and since she's trying to be the moderate she'd likely be a dog anyway if Trump dropped out despite DeSantis being a steaming pile of garbage as a candidate. DeSantis ****ing sucks, but at +5500 he'd probably be a back more than a lay if we were taking a non-Trump R candidate as a hedge in case Trump dies or legally can't run

On the D side i'd imagine Newsom would be the fav since Harris sucks hard as a candidate but the price is ridiculous, if anything Harris at +5500 is a bet on Biden being incapacitated very very late in the campaign but she is one of the few candidates who is so bad she could actually lose a general election to Trump. Newsom, while a plausible alternative D candidate, is way too short and is a lay at +1500 too. Assuming he's a flip in the general that means the market thinks he's +750 or whatever to be the nominee which is ridiculous given he isn't currently running and won't run unless Biden dies or drops out.

Michelle Obama at +5000 is a free money lay, she isn't running obv

Dean Phillips is a lay at +15000 even if Biden drops out primarying the incumbent is poison to the D base and he's widely disliked now someone else would get the nom.

One candidate I haven't hated R side who has been between +30000 and +50000 and is currently +42000 on Betfair is Tucker Carlson. I think there's a non zero chance he's Trump's VP and he is loved by the R base, he would only run if Trump dies/can't but if he were to run and Trump wasn't running he would instantly be a frontrunner on the R side. I think he'd be a dog in the general but I mean, it's +38000 he is vastly more likely to be the R nominee than say Vivek and vastly more likely to be President than Michelle Obama who won't ever run or RFK who has literally 0% chance in an election since his job is to pander to antivaxxers and pro-Trump republicans who would rather vote for Trump or whoever the Republican nominee is, Democrats don't like him and mainstream Republicans won't vote for him over a Republican so I have no idea why the market thinks he's 4% to win, he has about the same chance of being President as I do lol him being half the price of DeSantis who granted won't win but in theory has a path if something happens to Trump is ridiculous.

TLDR at current prices Back Biden (there will be an exit window at +235 if he's gonna lose the general and more likely he trades flip with Trump in the not too distant future when both are the nominees). Trump would be a back-to-later-lay if he got close to +200 too, currently +148 is a bit meh given I think that's close to his fair price given he's 95% or whatever to be the R nominee and I make him a small dog in the general to Biden once the campaign gets underway and Trump reminds moderate voters who he is. Honestly there is probably value in both Biden and Trump being their respective party nominees despite the short prices too, the only doubt I have for Trump is if he's legally barred from running which honestly seems really unlikely and I say that as someone who's pretty left wing.

For long shots the value is Harris, Carlson, DeSantis at +5500 +42000 and +5500 imo

Firm lays on everyone else in the field other than Trump/Biden and the three above

Absolute stone lock lay on RFK Jr at Betfair prices, but you'd make the same 4% sticking your money in a bank so no reason to do it

If anyone wants to back RFK Jr for Pres will happily lay at substantially better than market settling on election day to anyone trusted. Would consider laying various other candidates too but obv don't want to post funds for a year if laying long shots. Would happily offer +4000 or something for say 250 to win 10k if anyone wants to back RFK Jr or open to larger numbers I guess, just don't want to tie up funds for a year for a 4% return so we'd have to settle on election day.

Gut instinct is Biden is re-elected because Trump is the Republican nominee, but he would probably lose to a good Republican candidate, but I very much doubt the Republicans will nominate a good candidate because Haley is the closest thing they have left in the field and isn't particularly good anyway and she's not going to be the nominee anyway.

Strong analysis and agree, I've put 3 (small) bets down on Biden, I don't get how he's such an underdog to Trump and I don't understand where this narrative he's just going to step aside comes from. If he did step aside he'd do it after the election.

I don't think the Republican party is anywhere near as racist as you think it is. You're falling for the media hype. Are there pockets of racism? Sure in a small part of it. Exists in the Democratic party too fwiw. Probably a bit more in the Republicans to be fair but you get the point.

Dear lord that was a lot of **** to write out how much you hate Republicans and see no way any can win. You've wrote the same for every election race so no shocker.

Desantis unlikeable huh? You're not unlikeable when you win your governor re-election for Florida by the largest in the modern era. In 2012 FL went to Obama so you can't say it's just full of idiot MAGA's or whatever.

Biden has the worst polling of any president since Jimmy Carter. If you think there's value then go for it. Everything they do against Trump continues to push his odds higher to beat Biden. The dude has been an utter disaster, and people will vote with their wallets. Meanwhile while Israel/Hamas is going on, Biden is buying oil to from Iran to try and lower gas prices and supporting terrorism bc if gas skyrockets back up, then does inflation and he's 100% toast. Everything about Biden has been a disaster, and he's a deserved dog even against a man who might have to just pardon himself when elected president.

Lol at Republicans not electing a black or brown skinned person. Dems are the entire party history of racism Swoop. https://assets.ctfassets.net/qnesrjo...transcript.pdf

hey guys let's keep this numbers and betting

If anything, boomer Republicans love black and brown right-wingers such as Candace Owens because it provides cover while dunking on identity politics.

I once tried to explain to some right-wing friends that Trump is like being in a destructive relationship with a crazy girlfriend (think Amber Heard). She's super hot though and the sex is amazing so they can't bring themselves to leave. My friends laughed, agreed with that analogy, and then went back to telling me why I should vote for Trump.

I think Biden is and will continue to be undervalued. I really think Fetterman's PA Senate run in 2022 is the right comparable. PA is a swing state that a brain-damaged Fetterman was able to win by 5 points in 2022 against a Trump aligned candidate.

I agree that RFK Jr. has a very small chance of winning but that doesn't mean he and other 3rd players don't play a significant role.

No real bets, just thoughts. Agree or disagree, respect Swoop for putting numbers and odds behind his opinions. Most posts, including mine are just non-actionable pontificating. As bettors, we know everything depends on the price.

I wish Trump/Biden weren't such inevitable nominees it would make the upcoming primaries and caucuses more interesting. 2nd place winner in Iowa is the only real interesting bet.

I hate Biden but I disagree with this, especially the part about voting with your wallet. The stock market is at all-time highs, unemployment is super low, people can get 5% just parking their money in savings accounts. There was inflation from the COVID stimulus (which Trump and Biden were both in favor of), but even that has come way down. The US economy is doing great. And as you said, gas prices are fine. So if people are going to vote with their wallets, I don't think that would disadvantage Biden at all.

And is he even a dog? PredictIt has him and Trump each at 38%. Dems are a slight favorite to win the White House.

I agree with Tom that a brain-dead ****** winning for the Dems in Pennsylvania vs the Trump endorsee is a good indicator for Biden. And now that mail-in/no-ID voting is established in a lot of swing states, and there are another five million illegals in the country that Dems can add to the vote tally since 2020, I would favor Biden over Trump right now.

What makes you think the illegals will favor Biden? Trump did VERY well with immigrants in Florida, for example.

That the inflation has come down is great, but people (and their wallets) don't understand it. They think prices should go back to where they were in 2020. That is (of course) not how inflation works. They see the prices for canned tuna are still what they were.

How does this work exactly?

Do you really need an explanation of why illegals are more likely to vote for Biden over Trump? Biden is much more inclined toward amnesty, toward free health care and housing for illegals, etc. Whereas Trump has threatened many times to send them back and to seal off the border. If you're an illegal, would you vote for the guy who wants to let you stay in the country and give you aid, or the guy who said you're likely to be a bringer of drugs, crime, and rape, and who wants you deported? Trump did well with legal Cubans in Florida, who fled the leftist shithole of Cuba. They are a very different constituency than illegals. To act disingenuous about whether the millions of illegals who've come in over the past three years would favor Trump or Biden makes you hardly worth responding to.

And yes, that is how inflation works. Some people understand that; some don't. Biden isn't uniquely responsible for the inflation. Countering the inflation is that personal wealth is at an all-time high, and average wages are at an all-time high (which is part of what is driving inflation).

Sanctuary cities, which are all Democrat strongholds, erode safeguards that ensure only citizens vote. Mail-in voting is a big part of this. You can go to the registration websites to vote in various states and see for yourself. You register your name, fake or not, and you select that you don't have a Social Security number, and then you put in the address of the asylum center or homeless shelter or Democratic Socialists branch and you get mailed a ballot. It works even without the actual person existing, but it's more credible if they do exist. If you have to vote in person, it's a similar process but instead of getting a ballot in the mail, you just get a registration notice. Then the NGO or sponsoring organization (again, DSA is notorious for this) shepherds you to the polling place and tells you to vote blue. The names and signatures match because they're registered, but they are in the US illegally and have no SSN. They don't have to show ID because the laws don't require it—16 states don't require an ID to vote; 27 don't require a photo ID. So that's how it works. Bear in mind that none if this could be overturned in a recount.

I think it would be naive to think that in places where the people in charge favor illegals voting, they wouldn't be putting their thumbs on the scale by allowing illegal votes. This year D.C. passed the Local Resident Voting Rights Amendment Act, which allows non-citizens to vote in their elections.

Wages are not keeping up with inflation prices. Whether it’s a world problem or not vs Biden won’t matter come voting time. He’s not at Jimmy Carter level low approval ratings bc everybody’s life is going so great and everybody is prospering all around. The country has made it pretty abundantly clear that they hate Biden and don’t want another 4 years of him. Whether they still hate Trump that badly and will vote against him remains to be seen. Trump’s base is going nowhere, and meanwhile Biden…..well let’s just say he won’t be getting 81 million votes this time.

His job creation numbers are all due to the same jobs that left and shut down during covid coming back, and creating **** jobs for a high school educated person, or an actual teenager. Layoffs are in mass in the tech world.

I was wrong about Carter's approval rating. Jesus look how low Biden is.

trump off the primary ballot in maine as well

could see a domino effect

Colorado's has already been reversed. Expect the same in Maine, or the SCOTUS will overrule it.

More context to this: It's a temporary ruling in affect while the case is appealed to the Supreme Court.

BBN come back