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2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread 2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Today , 08:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
Trump was up to like around -1000 on some books before they stopped the counting in several important states simultaneously. With all due respect, this seems like revisionist history.

We're talking a couple thousand votes in a few counties under very unusual circumstance.
You do realise that most Democrats postal voted due to Covid and Trump specifically telling Republicans not to postal vote hence the postal vote, which is counted late, skewed heavily Democratic right

I did not take you for an election conspiracy theorist

Like this cycle Trump told a lot of his voters to vote early in person so the Republican in person early vote is up, which means their election day numbers will be down slightly due to some of that vote being already done by his supporters who voted early this time like he said

@smartdfs the answer to that is 'pollsters have literally adjusted their methodology to try and accurately capture the electorate after the last miss' so it isn't guaranteed.

Also it's a sample size of 2, that isn't enormously statistically significant. Also Roe being overturned may lead to some women who would normally vote Republican and did the last two cycles may be voting for Harris and just not telling their husbands because banning abortion is unpopular.

I'm not saying there definitely won't be a polling error in Trump's favour, i'm saying the market pricing it is as guaranteed is a mistake.

Also early signs seem to point towards high turnout which is generally good for Democrats, if turnout is 2020 type levels or higher Harris will win 90%+, if they're 2016 type levels Trump will win 90%+ etc, I think Harris needs turnout to be within something like 1.5-2% or so of 2020's turnout for her to be a favourite.
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Today , 09:06 PM
I just took Harris PV/Trump EC +350. Could not believe I found this.
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Today , 09:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CreedBratton
This is my counter party ��
I’ve got 100k on KH winning PV. 58c entry will ride it out to 100c or bustoville. GL team maga
What is PV? I am assuming Pennsylvania which is PA in USPS abbreviation. It's a bit confusing. I would hedge out rn and take the money you still can. Early returns aren't looking great.

Best of Luck (BOL)
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Today , 09:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
What is PV? I am assuming Pennsylvania which is PA in USPS abbreviation. It's a bit confusing. I would hedge out rn and take the money you still can. Early returns aren't looking great.

Best of Luck (BOL)
ITHM "popular vote"
2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread Quote
Today , 09:32 PM
Popular Vote

Sharp money pouring in on harris pv last few days
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Today , 09:36 PM
Ok nice. I have PV +550 tix too. BOL.
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Today , 11:17 PM
Here's my map. Start with 2020 Electoral Map. Give Georgia back to the GOP. Dems pickup North Carolina. Dems hold NV and AZ as well at the Midwest States of WI, MI. PA goes GOP but doesn't matter. Harris wins 284 to 254.

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