You do realise that most Democrats postal voted due to Covid and Trump specifically telling Republicans not to postal vote hence the postal vote, which is counted late, skewed heavily Democratic right

I did not take you for an election conspiracy theorist

Like this cycle Trump told a lot of his voters to vote early in person so the Republican in person early vote is up, which means their election day numbers will be down slightly due to some of that vote being already done by his supporters who voted early this time like he said

@smartdfs the answer to that is 'pollsters have literally adjusted their methodology to try and accurately capture the electorate after the last miss' so it isn't guaranteed.

Also it's a sample size of 2, that isn't enormously statistically significant. Also Roe being overturned may lead to some women who would normally vote Republican and did the last two cycles may be voting for Harris and just not telling their husbands because banning abortion is unpopular.

I'm not saying there definitely won't be a polling error in Trump's favour, i'm saying the market pricing it is as guaranteed is a mistake.

Also early signs seem to point towards high turnout which is generally good for Democrats, if turnout is 2020 type levels or higher Harris will win 90%+, if they're 2016 type levels Trump will win 90%+ etc, I think Harris needs turnout to be within something like 1.5-2% or so of 2020's turnout for her to be a favourite.

I just took Harris PV/Trump EC +350. Could not believe I found this.

What is PV? I am assuming Pennsylvania which is PA in USPS abbreviation. It's a bit confusing. I would hedge out rn and take the money you still can. Early returns aren't looking great.

Best of Luck (BOL)

ITHM "popular vote"

Popular Vote

Sharp money pouring in on harris pv last few days

Ok nice. I have PV +550 tix too. BOL.

Here's my map. Start with 2020 Electoral Map. Give Georgia back to the GOP. Dems pickup North Carolina. Dems hold NV and AZ as well at the Midwest States of WI, MI. PA goes GOP but doesn't matter. Harris wins 284 to 254.

She isn't winning Nevada or Arizona. I like your map besides that.

Harris winning NC is a great bet, imo. The governor's race could cost Trump the election.

Took 0.35u on Harris straight up so far to go with my 0.05u on Harris -99.5 as a big dog

I might get more involved in the morning

My map is the blue wall plus NC go blue as the median outcome

Unsure about Nevada

She wins pop vote but am mad at myself I missed the -165 or whatever the peak was oh well

Mark Lotter on CNN suggested early D voting is well behind 2020 levels in urban areas of swing states.

I would reserve comparing anything to 2020 but interesting nonetheless.

Last minute unit on Harris +158 as my main position will have to do

Am annoyed at myself that I missed popular vote at -160 odd a week ago it was the best bet of the cycle but oh well. When it's fairly flippy I can't pass on a +158 dog although not going insane with multi units like in 2020

GL All

I'm going with 292-246 in favour of Harris as final prediction

Also have dust on Harris -99.5 but tiny sizing at long odds.

What would you make the PV as fair odds?

This got cancelled for being an error line. Was supposed to be +150. Sucks.

I don’t really post here, but have been following along.

Have $2500 to profit $4300 on Kamala

$500 at +300 if not Kamala vs trump bet void (right before Biden dropped out)

$1K at +150

$1K at +130

Trump at -250 rn

Added a unit Harris +215 to the early market overreaction

Think i'm done now

Prob something like Harris -300 to -400 range? Close to where market was day of election haven't checked where it is now

Trump is only -152 to win popular rn, that’s wild

huh? where? i'm seeing kamala still favourite for popular vote

Sorry I meant to say Kamala , she was like -350/-400 a cpl hours ago

hope prediction markets get more respect after today

Well he’s actually -169 to win popular vote in pinnacle now. I honestly thought Kamala to win popular vote was free $