Here is Nate Silver on this.


https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-you...gnore-internal

Makes sense to me. Some key points 1) campaigns pay better and might attract more skilled pollsters. 2) But they aren't necessarily even trying to predict a winner, so much as discover information to use in the campaign 3) these pollsters are sometimes partisan and biased to their own side.

As Silver says, we often want to believe that there is some extra special secret thing that is far better than what is available to the public. I see people from all perspectives who love to say things like "their internal polls must be terrible," when a politician does something surprising.

There may have been particular reasons that they could get a big advantage on Brexit. And perhaps some other cases. I tend to think internal polls would provide only a small advantage in a prez election. There's also a lot of money and status to be gained if you succeed in public, like Silver.

This thing is over. Trump is your new president. Just look at all the love from all backgrounds and races. Biden really stuck it to them by running a drunk Indian.

https://x.com/Yolo304741/status/1849...ie%3Fpage%3D24

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgq_ZNH7vBE

^ 2/3 chance

Biden not dropping out so they could run a primary and get a more viable candidate than someone who couldn't even make it to iowa in 2020 may go down as the greatest political blunder of all time

but he was totally fine and only 2% chance he would drop out ya know

Nobody liked her when she tried to run for president and couldn’t win a single delegate. She was the most disapproved of VP ever. Suddenly the dems thought they were going to turn her into this loveable princess to the country. LOL Biden really made sure to screw them.

-204 on Bookmaker now. Kammie-La’s post DNC collapse has been one for the ages.

given the liquidity/no juice aspect of polymarket, wouldnt these other sites have to get in line with them or else there would be huge 1 sided scalp action coming in?

Domer alluded to that in his whale post from a few weeks ago

Superbowl coinflip.

Tails is 66% on polymarket.

What do you think happens?

Why would the election be different than that?

is poly truly juiceless? thought i read they siphon a small % of winning pool. maybe that's misinfo

kalshi has zero fees on their election markets. they deploy housebots: great for bettors but kills market-making / arb opportunities

Poly doesn't scrape anything, but there's still generally a spread in the bid/ask. Depends how liquid it is. The president market is quite liquid so very little to no spread.




Whereas here's Thursday Night Football. Much less liquid. However, it's not Polymarket that makes money, it's the market makers. Granted, Polymarket themselves may run the most sophisticated market making bots, I'm not sure. But even if they do, they don't have any advantage over anyone else who might want to compete in that market.

Kind of a side note, but I just realized Polymarket is likely going to grow until most major leagues become essentially vig free. As the liquidity in these games grow, markets are going to merge towards equilibrium. Death for bookmakers who have shaved many points off their customers for decades. Well deserved TBH.

How does Polymarket make money if they aren't vigging the market?

edit: just googled, some things say they charge a fee on winnings (so like Betfair) and some say transaction fees - not sure if it's one, the other or both but they're taking a cut somewhere obv

To follow up on my last post, this has already happened in the really liquid market of the presidential race. Kamala +202 on polymarket, Trump -197 pinnacle -190 Bovada.

If fee is small enough to encourage liquidity providers, which they at least claim it to be, markets will still reach near equilibrium.

Kamala supporters don’t like elections, crypto, betting or football so it will remain rigged at 66%

Fake news!



https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/trading/fees

this would constitute juice, but it's a preferable setup for trading vs. kalshi's taking % cut on every trade (for non-election markets)

Where do you see that because I'm 99% confident it's not accurate.

I'll test it out today. Will make a winning bet.

The main reason I don't think this is true is because winning bets trade around 99.9 before official resolution.

No one is going to pay 99.9 if they're only going to be paid 98.

Sounds like it's only on profits, so 2% of 0.01 in that case

I don't think they take 2% of profits, that seems pretty high

There’s no fee. Happy to bet on it, winner has to pay me a 2% winners fee.

This thread is a snooze fest, when will team MAGA start bull posting?

probably never....thread peaked when biden was supposedly 2% to dropout then faded after that

this election just doesn't have the hype of previous ones, probably for the best

i dont even know why they cancelled the NBA that night, even lebron isnt even bothering to endorse harris this time around and dude got on stage with hillary so just let them play, woke era is over anyway

Yeah. I trust markets and view Trump as the fav.

At the same time, the Floyd vs. McGregor lines happened, even with every remotely sophisticated bettor knowing that the lines were insane and making huge bets on Floyd. I knew APs who didn't follow fighting or really bet on sports who went hard on Floyd. I know a guy who is not an AP and made the only significant bet of his life on Floyd. Everybody with a clue was betting as much as they could stomach on floyd. But the lines remained insane because there was just that much Connor money.

This could be a lesser case. The fact that the types of people who support Trump (male, crypto, etc) overlap so much with the types of people who bet online could definitely be a factor.

If there was a market where, somehow, 80% of bettors were from NY you probably could just fade NY teams forever.

This seems more likely than the markets are being moved by leaked information that never gets to the GP, or people having models that are radically better than the ones we know of. Though, it could be a combination of both factors.

I feel like if Floyd/McGregor happened today that doesn't happen. People have gotten a lot sharper about betting the last 7 years with gambling being legal in most states now.