Even if we grant that 75% of polymarket is americans, crypto holders, who are violating the law, and using VPNs, that does not seem like a scientifically representative sample of voter demographics in swing states. I would venture to guess such profiles skew trumpy on average. Just a hypothesis.

Why does it matter if it is Americans or non-Americans? It's irrelevant. The sharpest people on the site are correcting market inefficiencies. They are curating the best polls and understanding correlations among the states to come up with an accurate probabilistic outcome.

Do I think it is a perfect market, not even close. But I do think it's the best proxy for the probability of who wins.

Still feels like there is a ton of alpha to be had in these markets. People are grossly overrating the public polls which gives the sharp bettors a huge edge when they have some access to the private polls.

People are also bad at reading the tea leaves. Their underestimating the probability of Biden dropping out is a great example. Clooney's op-ed was a death sentence for Biden and the markets didn't account for it enough. No shot that runs without the backing of the most important people in the party (Pelosi, Obama, Schumer). Clooney ran a very public fundraiser with Obama for Biden a week earlier.

When Kamala wants a second debate and Trump doesn't, that tells you Kamala wants to increase variance and Trump wants to decrease it. That tells you both of their private polling gives Trump at least a decent edge. Add on Kamala doing FoxNews and it becomes very obvious.

I think Trump will end up around 70% to win on Polymarket the day before the election. Kamala still has quite a few outs.

meh, obviously there might be some pro trump whales on there just firing but in general it is a highly liquid market with a lot of big money trying to get an edge in forecasting who is going to win

i dont think trump should be an underdog or 50-50 when the site has him at 60 (now 64 with today runup) if that is what you are insinuating

he's leading and probably going to win, just like a team that is a field goal fav in the nfl is probably going to win unless i bet on them then they lose mike evans, deebo, aiyuk, give up punt returns, have to play their 3rd string QB, etc but i digress

How much better do you think private polling is than public polling and why? I think someone like Nate Silver likely has the connections to have access to private polling and I'm sure some on PM do, but I think the majority of the big sharp accounts probably don't.

Rumours all over the place today trump caught on video groping a donors underage daughter

No idea if that's true or not but price has spiked 22c back to Harris after steaming to trump all week today +164 to +142, no video released at this stage though but that's the only thing I can assume it moving it although electoral-vote.com polling averages put NC back to Harris ahead today so could be that too

Still not involved still think on raw polling numbers it's flippy and Harris is right side but I think this close I'm just going to wait for complete info election day or the day before.

I assume either nothing is released and it doesn't affect the election at all or if somehow something is then Trump is cooked would only cost him a couple percent probably but that'd be enough

One thing worth noting is if that tape is real it would have happened at a Trump donor event so there's a good chance it never sees the light of day unless the donor in question both controls the tape and turns on him

I'd expect nothing comes of this but we'll see I guess

Lol the left has already tried everything in the book against him. You really think 2 weeks out this is anything more than a desperation ploy bc Kammie-La is getting crushed that badly?

https://electoral-vote.com/

Thank you for your contribution to the thread that's super helpful.

Election's close to a flip and the market incorrectly has Trump a moderate fav when it should be flippy on the numbers although it did move back 22c to Harris today on Betfair which is pretty substantial, presumably combo of the rumours and better polling for Harris in NC WI and NV today

The left does not need to invent Trump scandals, he has literally hung out with Epstein, was found guilty in a court of law of sexual assault (Carroll), was convicted of campaign finance violations (Stormy), has multiple other lawsuits/cases against him including the classified documents case and he incited a riot at the capitol and tried to blackmail Zelensky into opening a political investigation into his opponent and that's not even touching on the dozens of other verifiable scandals (paid to **** multiple pornstars while married, walked in on underage miss teen usa beauty paegant contestants, ripped off various contractors, mocked disabled reporter, most recently went apeshit over the cost of a murdered soldier's funeral which he offered to pay for, etc)

It's ridiculous that barely touches the number of scandals he's involved in

Obviously Harris isn't perfect but the idea that the left has to 'invent' scandals is hilarious. I noted a rumour that may have contributed towards the 22c Betfair market move today. That's it. It'll either come to something or it won't. Even if it doesn't he's still a terrible person obviously, if people want to vote for him knowing that he's a terrible person that's up to them. This thread is for analysing win %s and bets and so on.

Lol and literally none of the markets care about one single thing the dems have tried or that long drawn out response.

The market literally moved 22 cents in favour of Harris today, reversing the weeklong momentum Trump had

Harris was +164 when I went to sleep last night and is currently +142. Betfair has plenty of liquidity (mid 5 figs both sides to move it a single tick).

I was speculating as to whether that was because of polling or the rumours a video exists.

That is all.

.

Mark Halperin has access to private polling and he's been 2-4 weeks ahead of the public polls throughout the year. Rumors are Nate Silver was given private polling in the 2012 election from Obama's campaign which is how he got his name. I think the sharp accounts definitely have access to it. DC is full of people who like to talk about how well connected they are. If you have an incentive to get access, it isn't that difficult.

if it is close to a flip then how isnt Harris popular vote a smash at -155ish?

if she is anywhere close to Trump in the swing states then she is probably winning by 2-5m popular votes, somewhere like a little more or less than Hillary did.

I mean I do think Harris popular vote is definitely +EV at sub -200 but again waiting for complete info at this stage I think so i'll likely fire whatever I think the value is day of or day before

Fwiw -155 is not even close to available on betfair after today's movement (it's back to about -205) haven't checked polymarket and the crypto markets

If anyone wanted to give me -155 on Harris popular vote would happily book today but holding off at actual market price

I'm pretty sure plenty of Trump supporters would line up for the privilege of having their underage daughters groped by Trump. Obviously none of them care about how anyone treats women.

Ummm ok if you say so bro. Seems kind of crazy sounding nonsense to most people but whatever.

Hardly as crazy as thinking that all the terrible things Donald Trump did in his pre-political days were just things that the Democrats have tried to pin on him.

And seriously, there were a good number of parents of young children who took them to spend the night with Michael Jackson. Some people will give anything just for money or a brush with fame.

Private polling has the potential to be overvalued by non-sharp backers with access to it wanting to take full advantage of their edge.

In the Brexit referendum there was no public exit poll, but financial institutions had a private one. It was obvious from the tons of money going in on Betfair after voting closed that it was saying 52-48 Remain. It was then sufficient to unload the clip on Leave at 48 percent or higher - in the UK, people who postal vote are more often conservative and euro-sceptic, so it was possible to know which direction the exit poll would be wrong in.

Lol so they're about to take down PDiddy but have had about a decade to take down Trump and still have nothing minus hail mary attempts.

Back to -173 on Pinny and winning in every swing state minus MI. The dems really screwed themselves by running Kammie-La who is less likeable than Hillary.

Poly has D Pres R Senate D House at 23c. Looks like a good hedge to me for anyone long Trump, given the correlation to President and down-ballot House candidates.

would not be surprised if fredi is either hsc or gcr

efficient markets... trump is 99.7% to win

it's an order book. put some stink bids in for kamala at 0.5 or so.