trump lost a lot of his support on the far right as far as i can tell. my sense is people thought he was going to be this revolutionary candidate, but then he was overly friendly with israel, overly friendly with saudi arabia, became soft on vaccines. i think a decent chunk of his core base feels that he sold them out. with the introduction of the war with israel, trump is going to be exposed as even more of a bought and paid for candidate. i think a lot of those voters may be sufficiently disappointed with trump that they see him as equally worthless as biden, and would just throw their vote away on rfk.

apparently rfk has some left wing support, but i don't understand among who. maybe blacks? i know they had fairly high rates of vaccines. but aren't they also the least-informed voters? would they have heard of rfk? i recall them supporting hillary just because they recognized the name, even though bernie's platform would have been better for their needs.

liberals are psychologically more idealistic and conservatives more pragmatic. following that, i'd guess conservatives would be more likely to resist being self-indulgent with their vote, and would vote for their favorite candidate who still has at least some chance of winning. i recall hearing that that's the exact pattern we see. republicans are more likely to "come home" at election time and support their party's main candidate. question is, how many were so put off by trump that they wouldn't come home for him?

lol @ barney big nuts' unhinged rants

Well, Republicans finally found a Speaker and might be able to actually govern now. On the other hand, by electing a social conservative opposed to abortion they just gave every Democrat running for Congress a winning campaign message.

Let us not forget about his election denying and efforts to overturn an American Presidental election

Should make for a good ad or two

Barney big nuts truly unhinged. Part of the whining Biden crowd that regrets their vote for how awful of a president he is and wants anybody other than Biden in 2024, but can only focus on Trump. A special breed indeed.

No point in going back n forth with someone who doesn't live in reality

Just know you support being ruled vs being represented


Good talking to you. Best of luck

Lol Barney big nuts remains totally unhinged. Trump as president equals being ruled. Biden or Obama equals being represented. Lol like the House and Senate and SCOTUS all just magically disappeared with Trump and he just “RULED” away. Lol what an idiot.

Got give it to Trump. He’s been stuck in the mind of the Barney big nuts of the world every day since 2015. That’s quite the talent and why Biden is trailing every poll vs Trump.

Next week's Virginia elections will be an interesting test run for GOP's messaging around abortion. While Youngkin himself is not on the ballot, both the Virginia House and Senate are up for grabs in this supposed bellwether election.

A 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for RILoM (I just made up that acronym) is in line with what most Americans claim to support when polled on the issue. If so, I would expect this to neutralize Democrat's advantage on abortion. That combined with general feelings of dissatisfaction will result in a narrow Republican victory.

Has anyone seen betting odds for Virginia's Legislature? Predictit and Polymarket don't seem to have anything.

For reference, Biden won Virginia in 2020 by 10 points. Things will undoubtedly be closer this year. Statewide Generic Ballot polling gives Democrats a slight advantage.

Disastrous new polling for Biden in key battleground states

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/u...2024-poll.html

The details are so bad across the board for Biden that it's hard to single out just one or two key takeaways.

That said, remember The Fundamental Theorem of Political Betting: Buy during periods of weakness. Our friends on Wall Street (shout out Nagga Naj) refer to this as simply BTFD. This is actually a good opportunity to accumulate some Biden shares (or Trump NO to be safer).

I told you guys what he intends on doing
Now we have proof


He intends on arresting ex Generals and opponents and also intends to sic the US military on American citizens




Trump’s Recipe for a Shockingly Raw Power Grab
The former president and his allies are reportedly planning to lay siege to the rule of law.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...tator-00125767

Pressure is mounting for him to drop out. Should be interesting...

I once over saw an election at a factory for the union President. The 2 people running were POS's. One of the ballots read "anybody but those 2 Mofo's". I'm going with that.

I wonder if there is more Gavin Newsom equity than the market is pricing in.

This is a thread about election betting. Not for you to continuously spew "Orange Man Bad" propaganda. You're truly unhinged. Sad that Trump has lived so rent free 24/7 in the minds of so many dems like barney big nuts since 2015. The rest of us just went on about our daily lives ever since.

Lot's of possibilities here. Biden's dementia gets too awful and the whole country hates Kamala even worse. Newsome becomes the front runner (God help us if so). Trump goes to jail and is viewed as too toxic to back vs Ron Desantis. Desantis becomes the nominee. Or most of the conservatives just don't care and it's Trump or just sit home and we have a completely senile president in Biden for a 2nd tragic term. I can't see anything outside of Trump/Biden/Desantis/Newsome being even remotely logical as candidates that will make it to the end. Biden can't hide in his basement this time and blame covid and will actually have to campaign. Can he do it? I highly doubt it, and most of the Democrats don't want him anymore anyways. They would be best served to wipe clean of him an try and run Newsome, but it's pretty clear Biden is trailing vs Trump or Desantis at the moment and has a lot of work to do. As his mind and age gets worse and worse it just seems like such an up hill battle even as much as the left hates Trump.

Very very rough night for the GOP
Pretty much a clean sweep for the DEMS
Def a bad sign for 2024


Biden +220 is like a gift from god

Dems have been absolutely destroying Maga/GOP for a few years now

Crushing them hard in special elections as well -)

After yesterday's election, I think Democrats should feel a lot better about sticking with Biden. That's multiple elections now where Democrats have successfully weathered the storm. Yeah, Biden's polling is a disaster. But when it comes to actually pulling the lever, voters are so turned off by GOP candidates and positions that they continue to stick with Democrats despite their flaws. That's good news for Biden who is exactly that for most Americans--an uninspiring candidate and disappointing president. If the people in Pennsylvania can rally around and elect John Fetterman, I think it's not crazy they will also get behind Biden. Biden +210.

It's still unbelievable to me that Fetterman got elected. Though I do agree that the Republicans are literally the worst of the worst in pretty much almost every sense and I can see why everyone hates them. They are fun to laugh at and make fun of though.

I'm changing my mind on this after thinking about it and seeing the RFK Jr. polling data showing his support among younger voters in swing states.

The conventional wisdom is that any early polling support for 3rd parties collapses when it comes time to vote and people realize it's time to make an actual choice. However, we're heading into an election with two leading candidates (Biden and Trump) having massive unfavorability ratings. Most people do not want these choices being forced upon them by the two main political parties. Americans are not going to just sit back and accept these two choices. There will be some form of backlash. Among RFK Jr., Cornell West, the Libertarian candidate, and a potentially serious No Labels candidate I think we get the largest 3rd party vote tally since Ross Perot in 1992.

80 vs 77 is not much difference and not only is Biden in much better physical shape it's looking more and more like he is mentally too. There's been a lot of gaffes coming from the GOP front runner lately.

Ahhh a sensible post. Barney big nuts is a raging lunatic so he gets treated accordingly. Hope all is well man. Haven't seen you around in forever here.

Trump calls political enemies ‘vermin,’ echoing dictators Hitler, Mussolini
Former president Donald Trump described his domestic opponents as “vermin” that posed a greater threat to the United States than countries such as Russia, China or North Korea, drawing rebuke from historians who noted his language parallels comments made by authoritarian leaders.

Donald Trump Is Plotting to Make Himself Dictator
His plan is to make the federal government his plaything, and many Republican elites are behind him.
https://prospect.org/politics/2023-0...self-dictator/

This Is How Trump Becomes a Dictator
The former president doesn’t want to destroy the security state. He wants to bend it to his will.

This is part of the animating premise of Trump’s 2024 campaign to consolidate dictatorial power within the White House. Through dubious assertions of presidential authority and the removal of civil service protections, Trump intends to “identify the pockets of independence” within the executive branch “and seize them,” his former budget director Russell T. Vought told The New York Times in mid-July.
https://www.thenation.com/article/po...ecurity-state/

Plans to install Trump as dictator in 2024 are out in the open

https://www.peoplesworld.org/article...t-in-the-open/

Trump dictatorship plans: Worse than we realize
Donald Trump’s plans to establish a virtual dictatorship should he win the White House again in the 2024 election are even worse than we thought. Call it the presidency uber alles.

Trump would suspend parts of the Constitution, as he threatened to do to keep himself in power. He’d replace the non-partisan civil service with political sycophants ready to do his bidding. And he’d claim the powers of the president are absolutely unlimited, as he did in 2019.

https://www.peoplesworld.org/article...an-we-realize/


U.S. 2025 dictatorship threat just got real | Will Bunch Newsletter

https://www.inquirer.com/columnists/...-20231107.html

Thankfully the fat orange pos traitor is going to be found guilty in the jan 6 DC case and jailed

Yeah he is going to be convicted and jailed
Mark my words on it

trial starts march 4th

he will be convicted by a jury of his peers and then he will be put in jail by the honorable Judge Chutkin


Will Donald Trump Be Found Guilty Of One Or More Of The 2020 Election Result Federal Charges?
3/1/24
9:00 PM
Election Result Federal Trial
Yes-300
No+220

it really is interesting to see inside the mind of someone with actue trump derangement syndrome.

Im genuinely curious, what is it about him that angers you weirdos so much? Are you just all the most susceptible to media propaganda? Does he represent everyones personal bully somehow? I know youre probably going to say "He TrIeD tO OvErThRoW DemOcRacy!!!"" but even if Jan 6 never happened, youd still be seething. So what is it, exactly?

What's up Poogs!

In November 2023, The Washington Post reported that deploying the military for domestic law enforcement under the Insurrection Act would be an "immediate priority" upon a second Trump inauguration in 2025. That aspect of the plan was being led by Jeffrey Clark, a Trump co-defendant in the Georgia election racketeering prosecution and an unnamed co-conspirator in the federal prosecution of Trump for alleged election obstruction. The plan also includes directing the Justice Department to pursue those Trump considers disloyal or political adversaries. After the Post story was published online, a Heritage spokesman said there were no plans related to the Insurgency Act or targeting of political enemies within Project 2025.