2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread - Page 28 - Sports Betting

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08-05-2024 , 07:44 PM

#676

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 53,593

Coinflip between Shapiro and Walz now

Quote

08-05-2024 , 10:31 PM

#677

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

Insane that less than a day out it's a flip implies she hasn't actually decided or competing leaked info who knows

Quote

08-06-2024 , 07:17 AM

#678

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

In other news, RFK Jr left a dead bear in Central Park as a prank is our 'not the onion' headline of the day and seems entirely on brand for him

Quote

08-06-2024 , 09:36 AM

#679

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 53,593

Walz is the pick

Quote

08-06-2024 , 04:59 PM

#680

PokerHero77

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6,684

Another fave bites the dust.

Quote

08-06-2024 , 10:03 PM

#681

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

Walz seems to be being received fairly positively on the D side. Guess they're going for national appeal over delivering a specific swing state. Trump 1.9x on Betfair it's getting close to flipping but not quite yet

Quote

08-06-2024 , 10:41 PM

#682

PokerHero77

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6,684

Quote:

Originally Posted by spooner90

Just bet on a successful takedown of Trump at 166-1. I don't like doing these sorts of bets, but fair value is considerably better than 166-1.

Looks like there may have been another taker on this bet, [Link].

Quote

08-06-2024 , 11:34 PM

#683

Rollos

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,155

Anybody have any thoughts on Biden resigning at 16%? Seems like clear value on the no side, PredictIt says that a death doesn't count and I don't know what a resignation before the election would do for Harris.

Quote

08-06-2024 , 11:47 PM

#684

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

There's no reason for him to resign early barring health issues as he can ram through any necessary but unpopular legislation after the election but before Harris takes office so she can say Biden did that not me

There is no upside to him resigning before Harris is due to take office unless he becomes literally incapable of doing the job

Quote

08-07-2024 , 12:13 AM

#685

rickroll

Questionable Taste

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 28,242

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rollos

i've been maxed out on the no since i found that

only real threat at this point is an accident/health crisis that leaves him alive but unable to serve

Quote

08-07-2024 , 07:43 PM

#686

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,380

Harris just flipped Trump as the fav on Betfair.

Quote

08-10-2024 , 07:40 PM

#687

PokerHero77

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6,684

Got out of my long dem position today.

Better to make 40% risk free than 100% on a moving target.

Although I am convinced I had way the best of it.

Quote

08-10-2024 , 08:15 PM

#688

rickroll

Questionable Taste

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 28,242

after losing a bit on biden yes on the ticket i cleaned up nicely on predictit vp market - piled it all into dem no because that market was way overpriced compared to polling/other markets but it keeps on dumping - can technically close them all now for a tiny loss (but decent gain overall)

was just hoping to swing trade but it feels like i got in too early - there's a bunch which are wild though, specifically az senate market

Quote

08-10-2024 , 08:18 PM

#689

PokerHero77

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6,684

I would not short dem on any Senate race unless the price was ridiculously bad.

Dem POTUS+House+Senate still good value IMO.

Best bet had to be NO Trump winning all swing states. Only a month ago it was pick, now its -700.

But I don't participate in Polymarket so it's all academic to me.

Last edited by PokerHero77; 08-10-2024 at 08:28 PM.

Quote

08-10-2024 , 09:13 PM

#690

rickroll

Questionable Taste

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 28,242

arizona senate is currently 79% dem win

both are new candidates

was held for a single term by a D turned I who stepped down (party was going to arm primary candidates to remove her anyway since she sided with GOP on the fillibuster so this was much more a face saving stepping down)

was held by an R the term before who retired

it's very much a contested and open seat and both parties are going to absolutely pour national resources into this campaign

the D has the advantage for sure, but it's nowhere near 79%

Quote

08-10-2024 , 09:15 PM

#691

rickroll

Questionable Taste

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 28,242

however, this wouldn't be the first time i did something stupid and didn't understand what i was doing, for all i know it could be fair at dem win 85%

Quote

08-10-2024 , 09:52 PM

#692

Halstad

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Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 7,565

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerHero77

Where do you think Dems can flip a Senate seat? They could still control the Senate if they only lost WV, held everywhere else, and won the presidency.

Quote

08-10-2024 , 09:57 PM

#693

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 53,593

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerHero77

But I don't participate in Polymarket so it's all academic to me.

Why not?

Quote

08-10-2024 , 10:51 PM

#694

PokerHero77

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6,684

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickroll

however, this wouldn't be the first time i did something stupid and didn't understand what i was doing, for all i know it could be fair at dem win 85%

AZ demos are pretty strong D. And they have gotten better since 2020.

Similar in GA IMO.

Quote

08-10-2024 , 10:52 PM

#695

PokerHero77

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Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6,684

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Why not?

I understand one needs to jump thru hoops (VPN, digital currency). For some those aren't hurdles but they are for me.

Quote

08-10-2024 , 11:03 PM

#696

PokerHero77

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6,684

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halstad

Where do you think Dems can flip a Senate seat? They could still control the Senate if they only lost WV, held everywhere else, and won the presidency.

Texas looks interesting. D +700 might be a play as I don't think the odds go much higher so hedging out s/b available.

I've read Kentucky is in play but I can't find any odds.

Quote

08-12-2024 , 05:32 PM

#697

NLOmahaHL

adept

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 765

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerHero77

Texas looks interesting. D +700 might be a play as I don't think the odds go much higher so hedging out s/b available.

I've read Kentucky is in play but I can't find any odds.

I need to see more political ads for Allred. Or maybe I need to watch more network television to see them.

But Ted Cruz sucks because all he does nowadays is culture war. And those odds are great.

Lots (more like all of them) of rural counties go Republican. And they go by like 90/10 margin.

Allred will win in Houston, ElPaso, Austin, and Dallas. He will probably also win in San Antonio.

Quote

08-12-2024 , 05:54 PM

#698

smartDFS

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 2,625

predictit electoral MOV market implies 82% chance of dems winning, with 58% on their separate "which party wins?" market

#efficientmarkets

Quote

08-16-2024 , 12:14 PM

#699

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,339

Hoping for Kamala to announce price controls on PredictIt withdrawal fees soon.

If not, Capital One is offering a generous new election season signup bonus on their Spark Cash Plus card for us high spenders. $2k cash bonus when you spend $30k in the first 3 months plus 2% cashback gets you another $600. Minus the $150 annual fee nets you $2,450 cash. It works out to a rebate of 8.17% that will more than offset PredictIt's 5% withdrawal fee. Just in time for election season betting.

https://www.capitalone.com/small-bus...ark-cash-plus/