No polling shows the dems to win Arizona. Their hot dogs have gotten too spoiled and shrivled. A fresh hot dog is needed. Kamala can only offer a taco.

ah last i checked i thought it leaned dem

either way, arizona is highly unlikely to determine the winner

JB, I like you and this isn’t a good bet for you. I think you’re taking the worst of it. But if you’re offering, I’ll take it.

Settlement August 23, if for some reason nobody is nominated by then, we’ll call it no action. If Kamala is the nom on that date, no action. Anyone besides Kamala or Michelle Obama, you win. Michelle Obama, I win.

I offer my humble $2,500 to your $5,000.

Please confirm if we are on, or let me know if you’d like to make any amendments to the above.

Booked.

Settle via btc?

Shoutout to our boy Clum for facilitating.

Yep, BTC works for me

Perfect.

If you decide you want MOAR, just post in here. There would need to be a seismic shift in market conditions for me not to accept.

have this closer to -150 than +200. wp

I think Beshear would be a better condiment than Kelly. I don't know if KY is swingable for the Dems, but it certainly seems possible, given they elected a Dem governor. Beshear is young, good-looking, has a good-looking wife. Kelly's kind of unpleasant to look at. Obviously this is very superficial, but so are American voters.

Can we stop with the hot dogs? I don't get it, is it some sort of meme i'm unaware of or is it just a weird attempt to be funny that everyone finds funny except me?

Insert Principal Skinner 'am I that out of touch? no, it is the children who are wrong' meme here I guess

Anyway, 0-1 but fortunately had less on it than I wanted so nothing cycle-ruining yet, failed to fire my long shots which included Harris which was a pity since that would have been epic at +5500 but anyway, on to the Dem VP slot and then the general

Harris's start has been better than I expected and Vance seems quite unpopular so far so i'd say we're back to close to a flip in the general although market still has Trump -140 odd on Betfair, but considering he was shorter than -200 just after he got shot that was a pretty short lived bounce. I expect Kamala will have some issues once they start going hard on the 'slept her way to the top' and 'hypocritical prosecutor' angles, but at the same time both are very minor scandals compared to actual Trump scandals, just Trump is sort of immune to scandal at this point. No desire to get involved in the general on either side yet, but this week's gone a bit better for the D side than I expected after Joe stepped aside. I was a bit worried Harris would just crater in support but she seems to be polling better than Joe is granted it could be a honeymoon period and one poll even had her leading today. Feels flippy but way too early to know.

Not sure yet who I like for D side VP, I get the case for Kelly, white dude, Astronaut hero, swing state Senator who can be replaced by the governor without any fuss as opposed to losing a popular governor for a swing state although it feels like Shapiro or Whitmer may be a bigger electoral help but I doubt they go with a double female ticket with Whitmer, strongly think VP will be a white male to 'balance' the identity politics side of things with Harris being a black/indian woman. Very ironic that I think we'll be getting a white male diversity pick, lol

Kelly, Shapiro, Cooper, Beshear seems quite reasonable in order of favouritism which is where the market has it, I very much doubt Boot-edge-edge gets it as the 5th fav because he doesn't bring anything really to the ticket swing state wise and LGBT people are going to overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic ticket regardless of who is on it. Beshear is a popular red state Dem but Kentucky won't be in play in the general regardless so losing him as governor makes no sense and for Cooper, while he's term limited, if NC goes blue the Democrats have already won several swing states ago. Shapiro and Kelly make the most sense to me and Kelly being a hero astronaut whose wife was shot in an act of political violence blunts the effects of Trump's assassination attempt a bit (if the ex congresswoman wife of the Dem VP candidate was also shot and actually seriously injured in an assassination attempt, it blunts the effectiveness of Trump is a unique victim of political violence angle and makes it more bipartisan)

If I had to pick today i'd say Kelly is the most likely VP and Shapiro second most likely but that's exactly where the market has it so don't really feel the need to get involved on either atm

I think Kelly is the better VP candidate overall but if Shapiro can lock down PA for the Democrats it may be worth it since obviously most D paths to 270 include Pennsylvania (unless they can sweep AZ/GA/NV etc and hold enough of the midwest)

Lot of money and endorsements for Kamala now. Just missing the Barack endorsement which is the most important one. If he announces it I'll concede my Michelle Dem nominee bet.

Will look to lay Kamala at evens to win on pres, as I don't think dems are going to continue with this clown all the way into Nov. There's no way she can win unless they try to take out Trump again or they completely fudge the swing states like they did in Maricopa cty and GA last election.

Trump is 1.69/1.70 on Betfair atm, you're not going to get evens right now but may later in the cycle depending what happens with the polling. By default I very much doubt either candidate goes shorter than 1.50/-200 prior to a few weeks out and stays there the entire time

What happened to being able to choose the candidate through a proper open convention? What does their D in DNC stand for?

Just bet on a successful takedown of Trump at 166-1. I don't like doing these sorts of bets, but fair value is considerably better than 166-1.

Secret Service is building a second barricade on Pennsylvania Ave today. I don't know if that means Netanyahu is swinging by after all or not, but they're prepared for Lafayette to get rowdy.

I thought assassination markets were highly frowned on or illegal. Guess not. Or offshore book doesn't care.

LOL, where would a bet like this even be available? Seems a bit much, even for an offshore. Would think any kind of "death" prop would be highly frowned upon, especially an assassination prop...

God how did I forget about these swoop essays? Glad that we are coming back together for our quadra-annual ritual of making money off the fraudulent dance of pretending America has a functioning democracy. Can we get domer and that Scandinavian guy in here again? I liked the part where they turtled after being flagrantly wrong for months.

skinner. i can see it.


if averse to hot dogs maybe try steamed hams

we need to bring back whomever was behind that elves burner account who was wrong on everything but then past posted "i put entire networth on kamala vp minutes before the announcement so i made money on it" and then was never seen from again

i always thought it was toothsayer



buttigieg is steaming from nothing to still very unlikely, thinking of adding buttigieg no to my hilldawg no portfolio - can't imagine they bring in a guy who brings in no states and is gay - they need the kind of vp that someone who is not repulsed by trump would admire and buttigieg ain't that - but they also just straight crowned kamala when if they were going to do that whitmer was the 10x better choice so wtf do i know?

house, idk if this was trolling or not, but if it wasn't, could you please explain your thesis?

would cry laughing if buttigieg were vp. seemed like a rising star until he completely bungled being transportation secretary, something i didnt know was even possible

Now there's a name I haven't heard in a long time.

Kinda sucks. Don't think he brings anything good other than sucking Trump's knob. And after the Dem switcheroo, someone else may be better for GOP.

Not a fan either, and will not be voting for him in 2028.

Considering Trump had to hit the 3-outer to keep going you are probably on to something, sadly.