i was going to disagree with you and make a point about kamala being on the ballot regardless as no one believes biden will serve all 4 additional years but that hotdog analogy is really good. touché.

eat the goddamn hotdog

dem leadership will convince themselves that the 1st hot dog is shriveled beyond repair, but the 2nd is salvageable if they boil it in water for 3 months and plump it up. of course there's a fresh pack of more appetizing dogs that could be cooked, but those aren't kosher and would have $90M less ad budget to market them

While I agree, all I can figure is that they know that there's not a campaign saving thing they can possibly do for Biden at this point. There's not a dem that they have that is beating Trump anyways, but maybe they're in full blown panic and desperation mode and somehow don't view Kamala the way the rest of the party and Independents do and believe they have enough time to try something over the next 3 months. I mean she was so bad at debating that Tulsi Gabbard handed her ass to to her so badly that Kamala dropped out the next week. She's unlikable and unpopular worse than Biden but he's 100% a dead man walking. They're screwed no matter what but a 90% dead strategy beats 100% dead is all I can figure. Let them panic away.

please mods give tom this as an undertitle

Maybe I'm wrong but I personally see it as closer to the other way around. I see Kamala as basically 100% "dead" with Biden, while unlikely, at least having SOME shot of winning. Current low popularity ratings aside, Biden actually always has been a likeable guy, which is part of how he beat Trump the last time.

If it's not Biden I feel like it almost has to be Kamala. Besides the poor optics of jumping over a black, female incumbent VP, I'm not convinced anyone better wants the nom this cycle. Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, Warnock, Pritzker, Beshear, Cooper, Moore, et al. all have bright futures ahead of them in politics and all likely view themselves as the future of the party. All of them could have a good run in the future. I don't know if any of them want to jump into a sinking ship as their only shot. You can lose in the primary and take another run in a few cycles, but you can't make it to the general and lose and get another shot.

You have 3 months tto build national name recognition and overcome a starting deficit of 5 points in all the swing states. Is that where you want to take your only shot as a 40-50 something rising star? I wouldn't want to sacrifice my career in a lost cause bid. Run in 2028 after Trump and Project 2025 **** the country up and people are angry with the party in power. With Trump out of the race in 2028, Dems likely start with a built in advantage in '28.

It's different for Kamala exactly BECAUSE she's unpopular. She has to know after her 2020 run that this is her only shot. She's not getting it in 2028 or beyond. She's willing to start in a deep hole because it's now or never. Better to have a ~30% chance (imo) than never getting a chance at all. And even if she loses she has a built in it excuse and falling on the sword for the good of the party might buy her some political capital within the party (possibly a cabinet position if Dems win in 2028 or whatever).

All fair and solid points outside of calling Kamala a black woman (she's an Indian as demonstrated by her wearing a full Indian wardrobe and being so proud to be the first Indian Senator when elected. She embraced her father's side only when running for VP for the black vote), and this project 2025 nonsense. Trump has denounced that, and I don't know any Republican that has ever thought a thing of it.

Now can we get back to this hotdog discussion like civilized people? JD Vance seems to come from the boiled hotdog background with no toppings and that's how he came across to me last night, while Trump is only the finest with all the toppings. I liked Vivek better as VP, but he's definitely a vegan hotdog and I don't know if all of America is ready to embrace a vegan hotdog as VP.

thread so back

Eh, she acknowledges both sides. She grew up in the black church and went to a historically black university (Howard). Agree she pandered for the black vote once she ran for office, but so did even Obama (who's also mixed) once he ran for Senator from out of the Chicago area and then later for president. Whatever gets you votes, LOL...

Pedictit now has Biden 17c. I don't know how that reflects w/ other books but it's hard to imagine going much lower without an imminent Biden concession.

You gotta remember, though, we don't eat the hotdog until November. While the first hotdog might look better now, this is as good as it's going to get. It's going to look even worse come November. The second hotdog is not good and may be worse looking now but we have until November to shine it up with ketchup, mustard, and all the fixings. Unfortunately, our perfect analogy breaks down because ultimately we aren't in a position to choose the hotdog. We are getting the first hotdog unless the vendor somehow dies or decides to step away from his cart. Only then might we get to pick the second hotdog. Alright, I'm finished.

Pedictit now at 12c. I'm guessing tomorrow PM or the weekend, when news cycle is light.

yikes, 12c reeks of insiders pounding the market officially frightened

waiting for RNC to finish.

or they drop it as trump is speaking.

Up to 16c.

What is market liquidity on predictit, $50k? I'm sure there are bigger books but I'm not trading this so not too interested.

10c on polymarket

max $850 per position

no limits on polymarket afaik

edit: market liquidity, there's been like $1mil average daily volume on predictit for dem nominee over last couple weeks i think, tight enough spreads on biden yes/no that you can buy max position without moving price much

If they do pull the trigger on Harris I think it's a mistake

Also every D listed who sees themselves as a future president should snap call being the nominee if given a chance, Trump is still a loose cannon who energises the base and it's months away

I think Harris is the worst candidate possible if the Ds do pull the trigger on it

I legitimately don't think Biden would have stood aside if not for getting covid here and he still may not but obviously it's far more likely now than it was a few days ago since health concerns or his family wanting him to exit are basically the two ways he ends up not being the nominee

The Dems have completely **** the bed the way they have handled this regardless

the fact that no democrat wants him to run again is the reason he's being pushed out. that you're now rationalizing it as covid being the reason, when it's clearly not, to maintain your original line that only illness or death would cause him to drop out = denial. the line moved hardest yesterday when it was announced RNC was pushing back its virtual nom process, not on the news he had covid.

ban for lack of hotdog references

Whitmer getting some action. 18c at the moment.

Probably their only plan B. She likely has better chance than Kamala in the midwest swing states. No clue how she polls in GA/AZ, which seem to be key IMO.

correct, no limit on polymarket. if you're using it, make sure to do limit bids rather than market or you'll experience lots of slippage.

house, do you have any hotdog positions currently?