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2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread 2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Yesterday , 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by J_Utah
There is free money and massive EV plays on Bovada for the Republican National Convention if anyone plays there.

Will Trump mention in his speech:

MAGA -1400. Free money (MAGA is the title of the Republican Platform)
Seal the border -125. Free money (this is a major platform item and SEAL THE BORDER is in all caps)
A nation in decline +200. Near free money (this is prominent in the platform and also in all caps)
Fight. Fight. Fight +300. High EV play at +300 (this will become a catchprhase)

There are many more.

I apologize if people don't post such things anymore or if no one uses Bovada. Please delete if improper.

I was a pro who used this forum from 2005-2012 under the name Utah. We used to post such prop picks here and they were a steady source of monthly income. I stopped betting in 2012 with the Pinnacle LV arrests and when one of my partners was raided by the FBI. That was enough. But I still follow lines and find opportunties purely out of habit.
good stuff, welcome back

would love to hear more about the bolded
2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread Quote
Yesterday , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by J_Utah
There is free money and massive EV plays on Bovada for the Republican National Convention if anyone plays there.

Will Trump mention in his speech:

MAGA -1400. Free money (MAGA is the title of the Republican Platform)
Seal the border -125. Free money (this is a major platform item and SEAL THE BORDER is in all caps)
A nation in decline +200. Near free money (this is prominent in the platform and also in all caps)
Fight. Fight. Fight +300. High EV play at +300 (this will become a catchprhase)

There are many more.

I apologize if people don't post such things anymore or if no one uses Bovada. Please delete if improper.

I was a pro who used this forum from 2005-2012 under the name Utah. We used to post such prop picks here and they were a steady source of monthly income. I stopped betting in 2012 with the Pinnacle LV arrests and when one of my partners was raided by the FBI. That was enough. But I still follow lines and find opportunties purely out of habit.
Tailed, thanks...
2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread Quote
Yesterday , 09:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
good stuff, welcome back

would love to hear more about the bolded
Here is a write up on the arrests from the FBI. It was not fun. I was wagering about $8 million a month. Although not huge, it was big enough to be noticed. I was connected to these guys and had a $1 million line at Pinny.

I was also supplying automated arbitrage software to many here. So I was very concerned that I could be considered “in the business of gambling.” Some clever doj lawyer could argue my software was akin to a slot machine or gambling device.

I was 40 years old with daughters and had had enough. It’s a young man’s game. It was a cool life though. At one point during all this I was living in Siberia (Novosibirsk) hanging with Russian gangsters. I am quite lucky to be alive. Heck, I knew 5 Dimes Tony, as he taught me the ropes a bit when I started. And they killed him.

https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/ne...s-betting-ring
2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread Quote
Yesterday , 09:52 PM
thanks utah, will read up on that stuff


it's amazing how many posts from people involved in this stuff over a decade ago all lead to 5d tony

what are your thoughts on all the arbitrage stuff out there now and their influencer marketing

2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread Quote
Today , 01:15 AM
johnny utah wins thread

heard 5d tony was killed but never read the story, which is wild

infinite money glitch? sign me up
2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread Quote
Today , 01:26 AM
utah, to clarify: did you go from living in siberia with a $1mil line and supplying arb software to -- post pinny raids -- living life on the straight and narrow (besides picking off low limit bovada props) as a family man?
2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread Quote
Today , 08:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smartDFS
utah, to clarify: did you go from living in siberia with a $1mil line and supplying arb software to -- post pinny raids -- living life on the straight and narrow (besides picking off low limit bovada props) as a family man?
Mostly yes.

I donít have a dime in action anywhere. I just catch myself looking at lines by habit. I donít even know the limits on those props anymore. It used to be $50. But they should not be dismissed because itís a free couple thousand a month. It used to be anyway. And they are just fun.

The million pinny credit line didnít really do much as pinny was ultra sharp. I would sometimes just arb stuff off there. But I also had millions at places that do not advertise or that were derivatives of places like bookmaker. My Vegas partner would settle up with them at the Bellagio or such places.

In 2010, I had brought a stunning Siberian woman and her daughter here. I dated the woman in Siberia for six months and saw how she and her daughter lived in extreme poverty. I went all white knight and wanted to give them a better life. One reason I quit gambling is that I didnít want to go to jail and leave them in such terrible shape after bringing them here. I also had a daughter with the woman shortly she arrived. Just the IRS implication had left me at great risk, and then the arrests and the raid on one of my partners hit.

The story of those three, Olga, Anya, and Natasha, turned out to be incredible and worth everything to me. They all live wonderful lives here and make the most of it. I am still very close to Olga even though we are no longer together. And I am super close to my daughter Natasha. Most nights I am taking her to wrestling, Muay Thai, or jiu jitsu.

So in the end of everything, my journey in pro gambling ended with a win. And that is rare.

I do law now although I am not a lawyer. I just learned law and found a lawyer partner. We are defending a group in an oil rig investment gone wrong that lost $250 million of small investor funds. Lots of innocent people got wiped out. And we are prosecuting a medical malpractice case where our client died a gruesome death (we represent the trustee of the deceased). We either get millions or nothing. So there is still plenty of gamble in my life.
2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread Quote
Today , 09:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
thanks utah, will read up on that stuff


it's amazing how many posts from people involved in this stuff over a decade ago all lead to 5d tony

what are your thoughts on all the arbitrage stuff out there now and their influencer marketing

Hi. I do not know what is out there today at all. But I would not trust it. The dude in the video is silly. We had arbs fully automated almost 20 years ago. Stuff has to be way better today. There is no need to sit at a computer.

We built in a full bet sizing and bankroll management system so you could bet full kelly, half kelly, or whatever you wanted. You could arb or simply place the action on the errant line (smarter). We also built in humanization and errant line detection to prevent looking like a computer and to prevent angering the sites, which was my introduction to 5D Tony as he called me and screamed at me for 30 minutes for hitting an obviously errant line. Then he calmed and told me how things work being a pro and how I was expected to act. Then he gave me a lot of free plays for pointing our errant lines to him that I detected.

I also assume the sites have gotten faster and better at updating their lines. Even 20 years ago, most arb opportunities were so fast that a human without software could not detect them. We had a 3 second standard for retreiving a line, placing it in the db, comparing it to find the arb, and triggering the automated betting sequence. And that is not particularly fast. Pinny was always a problem as they used to limit how often you could read their feed (no idea what they do today). So we set up large blocks of IP addresses from places around the world and we would rotate the ips to pull the line.

From 2005 to 2012, I had multiple high level developers working fulltime building and maintaining the software. It is not easy. So I would not trust anyone based on this alone.

Also, you can't really sell or license arb software as it would quickly cannibalize itself. Too many people would be trying to hit the same arbs. Either too many of your subscribers would miss out or you would alert the sites and bring attention you did not want. The way I solved this was by licensing to a select group here. We didn't all hit the same sites or same bets depending on betting strategy. The software detected around 300-500 arbs a day (maybe more. I don't remember, but it was at least that many). So there was enough diversity to never be a problem.

I would post a graph of the results of my first 4,800 automated bets over 51 days when I was proving out the software. The bet size was only about $500 then. The return over the 4,800 was approx $40,000 or 2%. But I don't have posting priveleges to show here. The chart is wild as it clearly highlights the demon known as standard deviation. While I hit our theoretical 2%, I was actually at $50,000 at bet 1900. This means I lost $10,000 over almost 3,000 bets where I had a positive EV. By sheer dumb luck, you can run bad over thousands of wagers. Everyone knows that, but even today it is still weird for me to see.

Probably more than you wanted to know about arbitrage and arbitrage software
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