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2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread 2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

07-09-2024 , 01:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
I agree with this.
Biden is dropping out. They are negotiating now and need to figure out the best path forward and how to do it. Kamala + X, X + Kamala, or X+Y? Biden probably wants some sort of exit package too. Portraying strength now, until they come up with a plan and go forward in force.

And I agree that Biden has a better chance of winning than Kamala does.

They are likely waiting until Trump announces VP so they can strategize and put together the best team to combat that.
Yup. Exit package making the most complete sense here. Funding + media weighing out a bigger factor than a letter the old man didn't even write.
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07-09-2024 , 02:10 PM
FWIW, Polymarket Arizona dems offering 3.5-1 for the Maricopa Cty skeletons buried in the desert to make a comeback in numbers and get them the state once again
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07-09-2024 , 02:10 PM
can you translate that into english please?
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07-09-2024 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
can you translate that into english please?
Polymarket is offering 27% on democrats to win again which is great value because the vote counts in AZ in 2020 were really suss with regards to the mail in votes and because you don't need to be a registered citizen voter to vote in federal elections in AZ it's likely they will attempt to fudge that state again ( https://x.com/nedryun/status/1810277222084755890 )
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07-09-2024 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
I meant wrong re Biden wins Nom it's too early to know who wins the general although my gut instinct is trump loses we are a long long way away from having the data to support either guy winning yet biden has poor polling but is running against a guy whose ceiling is sub 50 percent approval too who he already beat once.

Joey B into -167 from +180 last cpl days D Nom seems like the conspiratards who are always wrong at betting things are gonna lose again. What is the Russian telegram channel gonna tell you next that is also wrong?



For someone that said Biden was 2% to drop out like the day before the debate, I'd probably chill on the gloating and just let people discuss it. Obviously a **** ton of Dem supporting media/donors/party loyalists want him out, will they succeed? I dunno, but clearly there is more of an effort to remove him than you ever thought possible so your arrogance seems excessive.
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07-09-2024 , 03:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
I agree with this.
Biden is dropping out. They are negotiating now and need to figure out the best path forward and how to do it. Kamala + X, X + Kamala, or X+Y? Biden probably wants some sort of exit package too. Portraying strength now, until they come up with a plan and go forward in force.

And I agree that Biden has a better chance of winning than Kamala does.

They are likely waiting until Trump announces VP so they can strategize and put together the best team to combat that.
His defiance seems pretty strong and like you said he probably has a better chance to win than Kamala anyway.
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07-09-2024 , 06:42 PM
What carrots would be included in an exit package?
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07-09-2024 , 06:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smartDFS
What carrots would be included in an exit package?
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07-09-2024 , 07:51 PM
Gmc I wasn't referring to you with the Russian telegram channels thing.

Anyway we'll see soon enough DNC is only a month and change away.

2 percent may have been wrong pre debate by a little bit but I don't think Biden was ever more than 10 percent to drop out even post debate maybe 15 percent at absolute max. At no point was it the sharp side vs market price. At no point will it be the sharp side vs market price.

Results will speak for themselves soon enough.
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07-09-2024 , 08:36 PM
Biden is probably dead in 3 years, I dunno what you could offer him that beats being the most powerful man in the world

his kid is on crack, not like you can give him a cushy senator gig in CA
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07-09-2024 , 08:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
Biden is probably dead in 3 years, I dunno what you could offer him that beats being the most powerful man in the world

his kid is on crack, not like you can give him a cushy senator gig in CA
No man. He said today he'll finish the 4 years of his second term.
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07-09-2024 , 09:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Gmc I wasn't referring to you with the Russian telegram channels thing.

Anyway we'll see soon enough DNC is only a month and change away.

2 percent may have been wrong pre debate by a little bit but I don't think Biden was ever more than 10 percent to drop out even post debate maybe 15 percent at absolute max. At no point was it the sharp side vs market price. At no point will it be the sharp side vs market price.

Results will speak for themselves soon enough.
you started with 2% chance of drop out which you attributed fully to death

after it became clear death was not the only impediment to his nomination, you continued doubling, tripling down as the line moved against you, essentially martingaling 20x that you are right and the sharpest mind, but you've offered zero rationale.

despite your certainty he'll be the nominee, you keep insisting we'll find out at the DNC. it's been clear for a while now that their plans to nominate him involve doing it virtually in a couple weeks, unless you're suggesting they're gonna scrap those plans and hold an open convention to decide, in which case Biden -250 is not the sharp side.
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07-09-2024 , 09:41 PM
He's about -185 on Betfair ATM not -250

If you're taking -250 when -185 is on offer sure that probably isn't the sharpest thing to do even though it's +ev

Anyway my point remains that at all points since his price rocketed post debate it's been plus ev to back Biden to be the democratic nominee and that remains true today
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07-09-2024 , 10:09 PM
apologies. he's kind of all over the place at -150 predicit, -250 polymkt, -280 bovada

anyway my point remains you argued his price was +EV at all points in time, even when it wasn't, with zero reasons other than "he prob won't die" and "trust me bro"
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07-09-2024 , 11:53 PM
If he doesnt step down voluntarily the price was plus ev the whole way a d continues to be. It's insane it got to +180 or so.

You do not get to be president by folding the moment things get tough Joey B ran for president several times, finally got there, he is not going to give up his life's work voluntarily and the Democratic party does not have the spine to roll him after he won the nomination against his will even if it was the right move and I could argue it isn't the right move but won't bother

The only way he drops out is terminal health issue, same thing I've been saying all along, and he doesn't have a terminal health issue currently.

Whether he wins the general or not too soon to know but he's going to be the nominee and he always was going to be the nominee.

It's not quite betting on trump after he lost the election stupid but people laying a price to bet against the incumbent president who has already won the nomination unless he declines it because of one bad debate were insane.

I've admitted 2 percent may have been wrong but at no point was it above 10 or max 15 percent even when he was at +180 etc

Political markets love to be wrong like RFK jr has traded as low as 30 bucks at some point this cycle when he is 0.0000000 percent to win the presidency

Biden traded at 9 bucks at one stage to win the general and 2.80 to win the nom lol
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07-10-2024 , 12:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Whether he wins the general or not too soon to know but he's going to be the nominee and he always was going to be the nominee.
Orly?
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/1...le-term-082129
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07-10-2024 , 02:27 AM
The article is from 2019

I mean since the time from which he announced he was running for the democratic nomination for 2024 as the incumbent president
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07-10-2024 , 10:13 AM
any take on trump VP? vance seems like the overvalued 1, i dont really get what benefit he would give trump...he's more firebrand type

scott if he was married i think would have a better shot, a 58 y/o bachelor as VP seems weird

feels like burgum makes the most sense
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07-10-2024 , 10:24 AM
was thinking about this, i think what we learned from kamala is watch whoever steams sharply when we get near expected announcement time and tail the insiders
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07-10-2024 , 11:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
any take on trump VP? vance seems like the overvalued 1, i dont really get what benefit he would give trump...he's more firebrand type

scott if he was married i think would have a better shot, a 58 y/o bachelor as VP seems weird

feels like burgum makes the most sense
fox news just showed vance, burgum, scott/rubio (i forget which), and youngkin - i've never heard of the last guy.

i have no take other than Burgum is about 40% on betting sites.
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07-10-2024 , 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
Biden is probably dead in 3 years, I dunno what you could offer him that beats being the most powerful man in the world

his kid is on crack, not like you can give him a cushy senator gig in CA
Jill!

What are you going to offer HER that beats being the First Lady, having a staff, getting so many of the trappings of the Presidency?

What are you going to offer her that makes her want to go back to Delaware and look after Joe with a small Secret Service detachment for the rest of his life?
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07-11-2024 , 12:45 PM
Give credit to Jill Biden for maximizing their exit package. It's over now that the leaks have come out that Clooney called Obama and he didn't dissuade him from writing his op-ed.

We'll get leaks early next week during the RNC and it will be official Thursday or Friday of next week.
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07-11-2024 , 01:05 PM
Kamala steaming right now on Predictit. I bet he drops out soon.
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07-11-2024 , 03:01 PM
They're officially putting him out to pasture today, sending him with no script to face a bunch of hostile reporters outside in 90 degree heat past his bedtime after a long day of meetings. Likely last press conference of his career
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07-11-2024 , 03:43 PM
the Russian telegram channels moving the kamala market again

guess Obama/Clooney even have that installed on their phone now
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