going big on NO Biden presidency 2024 @ 0.60 on predictit. sportsbooks and polymarket are taking 0.70-75. significant upside if he has to drop out for health reasons, even if not his approval rating is 15pts below when he took office with a slim electoral margin. even if things somehow change for the Biden better, odds are liable to be around 50/50 in October and can cash out then. see it as decent 65% upside with limited 20% downside come October. think I still have Trump 50/50 if he's in jail.

Imagine even getting 2-1 when fair is 1-1 and not hitting it

Recs will begin to see this ROI soon

FWIW i took polymarket and betfair I just don't trust the former with payouts fully so couldn't HAM the 3-1 being offered, if it were on betfair I'd jam it

Oh yes Nikki, please get more emotional on stage for the handful of voters, I'll take more units at evens for her to not drop out before Super Tuesday if it somehow gets offered on a deranged (but not as deranged as her) market again



https://twitter.com/disclosetv/statu...02626027172261

What are the latest thoughts from the masterminds here on this election?

I gotta admit, even I got spooked by the Hur Report back in February. At the time it seemed so incredibly damaging to Biden. Now in hindsight, it was a classic Fundamental Theorem of Political Betting situation. Buy during periods of weakness. We could have gotten Biden at 40c. What a gift.

Always remember the Fundamental Theorem of Political Betting.

CFTC Wants to Ban Trades Tied to Elections, Sports and Awards Contests. The number of event contracts has mushroomed since Covid, the regulator says as it seeks to separate gambling from investing.

😭

What are your thoughts on the current political landscape Tom?

Biden has lost too many coalitional pieces compared to 2020. He ends up losing in a low-turnout election. Congressional Democrats outperform polls and wind up controlling both the House and Senate. Trump is a lame-duck President on day 1 and with a hostile Congress he has a historically bad 2nd term. Gavin Newsom with VP Kirsten Gillibrand coast into the presidency in 2028.

Sizzling takes. Have you actually modeled any of this? I feel that low-turnout elections may be a thing of the past because of mail-in ballots and no-ID voting. I've done no work on this, but I'd be curious to see the regulations for each state regarding mail-in votes, what it takes to register, number of polling places, etc. My impression is that the more convenient it is to vote, and the easier it is to cheat (with mail-in ballots especially, which seem ripe for activist and NGO shenanigans), the more likely Democrats are to win. I don't know why Republicans seem disinclined to cheat, but having spent plenty of time in both circles, the dynamic seems to be the left wants to facilitate voting to the point of cheating, and the right wants to restrict voting to the point of inconvenience. I don't understand why the right doesn't employ the same tactics they accuse the left of using with regards to cheating, since you wouldn't even have to get away with it—you'd just have to show that cheating took place and therefore we need a much more secure system (paper ballots, IDs, no mail-ins, no machines, everything counted within a day). But that's how it is, as far as I can tell. If anyone has a map of states/precincts by voting regulations, and the populations in those precincts, that would be pretty informative for how to bet.

I hope some organization will assemble an audience of a few hundred people to judge the Trump/Biden debate using Oxford-style rules so we can place bets on who won.

Biden probably thinks of himself as a master of debate and it was his team holding him back from debating. Now that the debate is going to happen, it seems like a defacto acknowledgment from Team Biden that he can't just coast to victory.

Despite what his supporters say, Trump is not a very good debater. Prediction: Biden as the crafty veteran will get Trump to constantly repeat how the 2020 election was stolen from him.

You won't be able to bet on the debate winner according to an objective organization, but bovada (and presumably other books) has lines on who will "win." It's currently Biden -125 Trump -105, and the bet is whom the first CNN poll of debate viewers will say won. I would take Biden up to like -1000 on that, just because I can't imagine CNN would allow their poll to say Trump won.

I think Biden doing these debates is a mistake for him. I don't think anything said during them will change the minds of a significant number of voters, but I think there's a risk Biden has a moment like Mitch McConnell did where the age-degeneration of his brain becomes too glaring to ignore, and that could cost him voters. He seems much more at risk for such an episode than Trump.

This is a pretty good assessment imo.