it's been addressed previously - you just keep going in circles

you're also choosing to ignore the actual experience of people because in their marketing they say they won't do it (would they need to say they won't do something if it weren't infamous for happening)


let's say you're very deep and have good equity for a big cash


they call you to congratulate you and remind you to not forget to tip your dealer

are you going to say "no i'm not tipping you, we had the agreed upon fee" and then be able to sleep easily because of this?



you keep on dismissing me but "oddly" haven't accepted my prop bet offer because you know they'll try to shake you down and it'll be very uncomfortable spot you'll lose sleep over them potentially screwing you if you don't agree to a big tip

Well, if you go back and read post #8 in this thread, you'll see the following:

"I think the best course of action is agreeing to tip, but not committing to an amount."

What idiot says they're not going to tip? Why would you say that? You say sure I'm planning to tip, but I don't have a number I've committed to yet as it depends on how much I win.

Why would I prop bet based on an ambiguous term like "shakedown"? To you shakedown means something else entirely. To me, asking for a tip is not a shakedown. If they said if you don't tip, we may not be able to guarantee your picks will be entered on time, then that's a shakedown. You think they'll say that in text or on a phone call? You don't think I record conversations regarding any important business or financial matters?

looks like you got it all figured out

It does seem so.

Hot dog hot dog hot diggity dog!

Hey all,

Survivor is awesome and everyone should play. We've built Survivor Atlas in anticipation of the world loving Survivor. Check it out if you playing Circa. We have all the old contests loaded into our "lobbies." There's also tools to help you find your edge. All free.

We are also helping people play, both those that sign up in person and can't travel to Vegas. If you have any survivor needs, we'll take care of them, and guarantee it will be cheaper than anyone else. Also we're pretty sharp and happy to buy %s and contribute in our own way. The team has 8 figs+ in poker cashes and strong reputation. Opportunities available if you need a proxy, or don't want to fly in, or want to buy in to a syndicate

anyone have a list of sites running online survivor pools now that Nitro isn't running any?

Draft Kings has them.

The worst is the government tip when you hit it big. Seems absurd to me, I mean I haven't won anything huge. But I can say it aint 3 percent friends. Is there an operation that wont tell govt it is tip time?

good docuseries on circa survivor.

rest of the eps out next week

Episode 2: Monday, Aug. 26
Episode 3: Tuesday, Aug. 27
Episode 4: Wednesday, Aug. 28
Episode 5: Thursday, Aug. 29

Did a 24 hour trip to Vegas. Got Circa entries with winners circle. Craps paid for 50% of my entries. Already feel like freerolling. Contrarian time.

I'm not in any survivor pool this year, but I wish you all the best. It's a crazy roller coaster starting mid-season. I love Seattle and Tampa Bay week 1. I also like going YOLO early on because more than likely that entry won't come close to going the distance anyway and if you can get by even 1 week with a zero star team, it's a huge benefit for later in the year, especially in larger pools with double pick weeks. I don't see a "good" YOLO for week 1 though. Maybe in week 2 or 3.

Anyone running a survivor pool I can join ?

Got mine on Tuesday. Let the games begin

#Contrarianism

Tops picks for week 1 are going to be Cin, Buf, Sea, Chi and NO. Anyone going with Sea or NO and hoping for some upsets? Cin seems like a lock but I can see a Buf upset. Sea and Buf both -6 at home. I see more value in holding Buf for week 16 or 18 against NE. Circa very very likely to go the whole 18 weeks unless there's a chop around week 16.

The Bengals wiped out a lot of people... over 50% are gone in one of my pools.

IDK if the Ravens will be a bigger favorite all season than now, but I would guess they'll be as public as the Bengals were Week 1.

Who are people taking this week?

In three pools. Cincy was 32%, 41% and 50% owned. Also is a reverse survivor (pick a loser) where NE was 25%. Baltimore has Washington (-8.5) and Denver (-10.5) in weeks 6 and 9 respectively so I'd be shocked if they were as chalky as Cincy.

Probably going Houston is my big pools. -6.5 at home vs Caleb who looked pretty bad. they have a few games later where they are currently listed between 3.5-6.5 pt favorites but they're all either divisional opponents of on the road.

Dallas (vNO) seems like my play in the smaller pool. Like Houston, they won't be this big of favorites at home vs non-divisional until December.

Atlanta (@Phi) for the loser pool. Other than home to KC next week, they aren't currently slated to be more than a 1pt dog again. They have a pretty cakey schedule.

Jax as a YOLO pick isn't bad this week.

The Jags got me on some of my pools too, but fortunately most of my entries are still alive.

Going by the ESPN contest there isn't a single team with over 20% picked. Jets, Bucs, Browns, and Raiders all seem equally semi-public. I think I'll tag along with them, although the Colts at home against Chicago is tempting me to roll the dice on a 54% shot that nobody else has.

Thoughts?

I just don't see the value in taking underdogs as a contrarian pick in week 3.

Just spread your picks around the big favorites that have low Future Value. I feel like the contrarian plays are way better saved for later in the year when there are a small number of entries left and those will be heavily concentrated on one or two teams.

I like the browns this week . Don’t think they have much future value and their defense should cause a bunch of turnovers against Danny Dimes .

depends on the size of the pool and the payout structure - i can't say much because it's based on work done by others and not myself, but every single option each week has an equilibrium point where it is feasibly the optimal pick

I went with Browns and Titans in all my pools... not looking good at halftime.

How do you even begin to handicap or project out Survivor plays at this point?

Underdogs of greater than 5.5 are 13-2 ATS and 9 have won outright.

You don't.

Just go bet the spreads and don't play Survivor if you're more knowledgeable than the books.