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Old 12-17-2020, 02:48 PM   #1
Gallagher_
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2021 Political Betting

Now that the 2020 election is behind us, I figure it's time for a thread on 2021. (If you don't agree that 2020 is behind us, take it to the 2020 thread).

I'm seeing a lot of these presidential appointments at 85 cents on PredictIt. Like Pete as Transportation Secretary. I know it's not guaranteed they end up the final choice or that they pass confirmation, but it still seems like clear value. Am I overlooking anything?
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Old 12-17-2020, 03:18 PM   #2
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

Without Senate control it's not a lock that any given nominee is confirmed, and I'm not sure that Biden or the Democratic Party would be fully committed to appointing acting secretaries to get around that. 85c seems in the ballpark for most announced names right now?

In any case I don't think it's that far off if it is wrong.
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Old 12-17-2020, 05:25 PM   #3
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

There's also always the outside chance that a prospective nominee could get #MeToo'd between now and the confirmation hearings (a la what Andy Cuomo is currently going through, not that he ever had a realistic shot at a Cabinet position anyways.)


It's also hard to read too much into historical precedents given how much more contentious and divided politics has become over the past 10 years, especially the last 4. It feels like we are in fairly uncharted territory in that regard.


I'd agree with qotd in that in my nonexpert opinion it feels like mid 80s seems about fair for most of these nominees (aside from Neera Tanden obv, who is ~50c for a reason.)


I'd be interested in hearing what Domer thinks about these markets as well as the "objection to election results" markets for various GOP senators.
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Old 12-18-2020, 06:18 PM   #4
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

Fudge and Haaland both plummeted to just over 50% today. Not seeing any noise about challenges to either. Drawing out the confirmation process against Haaland would look terrible for Rs in particular given the history of the Department of the Interior.
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Old 12-18-2020, 06:24 PM   #5
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

I recommend reading the contracts carefully and using your best judgment from there.
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Old 12-18-2020, 06:40 PM   #6
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

Expecting the Republican Party to act in good faith and allow Biden a proper transition is optimistic unless Dems scoop both runoffs in Georgia and control the Senate (and even then it'll rely on Dems like Manchin to vote for whoever the nom is)

I don't feel super keen to bet anything at 85c+ between nominations not being set in stone, Republican obstructionism, metoo stuff especially for male nominees, etc

Western Australia has a state election in a few months, the incumbent Premier is a stone cold lock if the state stays Covid-free after NSW's latest outbreak as WA have crushed the Covid response even harder than QLD, and QLD's incumbent was re-elected in a landslide due to keeping the state covid-free and I expect the landslide in WA to be even bigger. Every person I know in WA left or right leaning is thankful that their Premier's response has been so good.
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Old 12-18-2020, 06:41 PM   #7
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin View Post
Fudge and Haaland both plummeted to just over 50% today. Not seeing any noise about challenges to either. Drawing out the confirmation process against Haaland would look terrible for Rs in particular given the history of the Department of the Interior.
When has the thought of looking terrible ever mattered to today's Republican party?
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Old 12-18-2020, 07:15 PM   #8
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

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When has the thought of looking terrible ever mattered to today's Republican party?
I just don't see how obstructing Haaland would be in their interests strategically, in the case that they decide to target some of these nominations for battle.
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Old 12-18-2020, 07:24 PM   #9
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

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I just don't see how obstructing Haaland would be in their interests strategically, in the case that they decide to target some of these nominations for battle.
Something like 70% of the party thinks that Biden's win is illegitimate. Until proven otherwise, I am going to assume that every nominee will be obstructed for every conceivable reason just by default.

All of this could change immediately based on the Georgia runoff results.
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Old 12-18-2020, 07:35 PM   #10
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

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Something like 70% of the party thinks that Biden's win is illegitimate. Until proven otherwise, I am going to assume that every nominee will be obstructed for every conceivable reason just by default.

All of this could change immediately based on the Georgia runoff results.
Sure, but with the nuclear option they only need 51 votes. Traditionally these confirmations would be nearly automatic via a voice vote.

However if you look at Trump's timeline the Senate didn't get around to voting on HUD or Energy until 3/2. Interior on 3/1. Not sure if that was due to Trump incompetence or Russia drama interfering.

I don't see that there is a Senate 2021 calendar yet.
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Old 12-21-2020, 02:07 PM   #11
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

I ended up just shorting Trump appointees at around 7c a pop.

Anyone have thoughts on "Trump files for president before 2022"? I bought in on yes, then realized I don't really know the advantages/disadvantages of filing versus just saying you're running.
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Old 12-23-2020, 05:16 AM   #12
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

Obviously saying you're running is better equity, filing requires a serious bid, Trump will def rant about 'maybe I should run' in 2024 if he's not facing too much personal disaster in way of lawsuits etc once out of office.

Actually running requires him actually wanting to be president again and willing to subject himself to the possible humiliation of either losing the nomination or election if either happens
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Old 12-23-2020, 11:54 AM   #13
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

Touting Star Spangled Gamblers podcast. You can also subscribe to their Patreon and they'll send out their picks and tips mentioned in the podcast in advance so you can front-run whatever impact they might have on the market. In my experience and opinion following their plays blindly is +EV although I usually just bet the ones that are the easiest money. Let's make 2021 a great year for our high-yield savings accounts at PredictIt, everyone.
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Old 12-23-2020, 01:04 PM   #14
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
Touting Star Spangled Gamblers podcast. You can also subscribe to their Patreon and they'll send out their picks and tips mentioned in the podcast in advance so you can front-run whatever impact they might have on the market. In my experience and opinion following their plays blindly is +EV although I usually just bet the ones that are the easiest money. Let's make 2021 a great year for our high-yield savings accounts at PredictIt, everyone.
Thanks. The host sounds exactly like Mike "Shroud" Grzesiek to me.

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 12-23-2020 at 01:21 PM. Reason: clarification
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Old 12-23-2020, 08:41 PM   #15
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

Listened to some episodes. I agree with zoltar, think there is value in Trump self pardon. Why wouldn't he do it? It's Trump.
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Old 01-11-2021, 11:05 PM   #16
Gallagher_
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

Anyone have thoughts on this market?

It seems to come down to when Ossoff and Warnock get certified? Read the rules closely.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...-2020-election
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Old 01-20-2021, 01:03 PM   #17
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

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Listened to some episodes. I agree with zoltar, think there is value in Trump self pardon. Why wouldn't he do it? It's Trump.
Nope! Wrong! I read trump was going to do it but talked out of it by his aides and lawyers but who knows if the reports are true, oh well.
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Old 01-20-2021, 06:45 PM   #18
qotd
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

Had some PI money free up today so I'm going in a little bit on Fudge for HUD at 69c and Haaland for Interior at 73c. Wish I could have done this a few days ago, but oh well. Value is value and I'm relatively sure both of these are values.
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Old 02-18-2021, 08:06 PM   #19
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

looking for bet on newsom to get recalled. Can anyone find odds on this?
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Old 02-18-2021, 11:10 PM   #20
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

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looking for bet on newsom to get recalled. Can anyone find odds on this?
Closest thing I've seen.
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Old 02-18-2021, 11:24 PM   #21
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

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Thanks yea I saw that too. He is offering me even odds that newsom.will get recalled for large bet. He also same guy offered trump at even odds even after the election date. This time though maybe it's close even? I feel like I'm the favorite taking no still even though it looks like will go to election

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
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Old 07-01-2021, 11:22 AM   #22
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Re: 2021 Political Betting

Here's a bet for you: https://twitter.com/JohnCleese/statu...92678490337281
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