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Old 04-25-2021, 08:47 PM   #126
somigosaden
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
imagine complaining about quality control and inconvenience of vulturing free picks people share online
This forum should be a collaborative endeavor. I don't post here much, but I do post when I have something constructive to say or when I'm adding value to betting strategy. I don't think I've tailed (or "vultured) a single pick from this board in years, except some Euro League picks from Sigs. I'm honestly surprised you would post the above. Do you actually think fansra is not complete noise? Your post makes me think all you are doing here is trying to "vulture" picks. Which, given the square-to-sharp ratio on this forum, must be incredibly futile.

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Originally Posted by fansrajoke View Post
Youíre so contradicting to yourself I donít even know where to start. You want me to post the odds when you know the odds. You want ppl to share idea and models when you immediately attacked mrbaseball in his thread. The only thing between you and me is according to you I shouldnít post picks the way the sharps post their picks. Let me give you a guideline so you donít get lost.

1. Iím not here to please you. There is absolutely no need to post the odds in mlb itís moneyline the team wins or loses and thatís it, unlike football and basketball where the odds are very different.
2. If you want some insight, try to ask with the magic word first.

Have a nice day!
I don't want you to post anything. I want you to keep your worthless spew picks to yourself instead of shitting up the thread with them. You're also so completely braindead you couldn't understand what I said in my prior post. You just wrote "according to you I shouldnít post picks the way the sharps post their picks." You don't even realize I was ridiculing you because the way you post is the complete opposite of how sharps post. You're so completely braindead that you also just wrote this: "There is absolutely no need to post the odds in mlb itís moneyline the team wins or loses and thatís it, unlike football and basketball where the odds are very different." You don't even know the difference between a line and a spread. Do you actually think there is just one book in the world and it posts a line that remains the same for everyone until the game starts?
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:08 AM   #127
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

somi, to be honest i was very surprised to see that post you made since you are otherwise a solid poster as far as i can recall

i pretty much never tail anyone, never even opened a book and whatever action i do book is through bm on acr which has terrible lines so most of the time tailing would be -ev anyway (ie sigs would post he likes pga matchup at -120 up to -135, i'd see it 5 min after he posts it but bm already has line at -140) so i'm primarily here to learn, i contribute when i can but since so many of the people sharing stuff are orders of magnitude ahead of me, there's not much i am able to contribute

as you may see from my posts in the thread, most of my posts here were about observing the process and asking questions, i model a lot myself, but go about the opposite approach of using vegas lines to project for dfs so while what i do will never be profitable in sports betting, seeing how others are solving these problems has dramatically improved my own methods and long term i wish to get competent enough to profitably model not using vegas as an input but rather using hard data to beat vegas

i am not in a position to judge fansrajoke's sharpness, nor am i interested in doing that, if he wants to share his plays then let him, the format he uses certaintly wouldn't be welcome someplace like crowdsource, but again, he's literally the only one posting here after badbeat decided poisson wasn't good for modeling ks and shut it down - so you're basically telling him to stop posting entirely because without him posting here the thread is dead

so regardless of the quality of fansras picks, i still think you're completely out of line telling him to stop posting because it makes it harder for you check to see if one of the top sharps you've vetted shares his plays

and ironically, your post was the exact kind of post sigs mentioned when bid his farewell post announcing he'd stopped sharing his plays
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Old 04-26-2021, 02:40 PM   #128
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
somi, to be honest i was very surprised to see that post you made since you are otherwise a solid poster as far as i can recall

i pretty much never tail anyone, never even opened a book and whatever action i do book is through bm on acr which has terrible lines so most of the time tailing would be -ev anyway (ie sigs would post he likes pga matchup at -120 up to -135, i'd see it 5 min after he posts it but bm already has line at -140) so i'm primarily here to learn, i contribute when i can but since so many of the people sharing stuff are orders of magnitude ahead of me, there's not much i am able to contribute

as you may see from my posts in the thread, most of my posts here were about observing the process and asking questions, i model a lot myself, but go about the opposite approach of using vegas lines to project for dfs so while what i do will never be profitable in sports betting, seeing how others are solving these problems has dramatically improved my own methods and long term i wish to get competent enough to profitably model not using vegas as an input but rather using hard data to beat vegas

i am not in a position to judge fansrajoke's sharpness, nor am i interested in doing that, if he wants to share his plays then let him, the format he uses certaintly wouldn't be welcome someplace like crowdsource, but again, he's literally the only one posting here after badbeat decided poisson wasn't good for modeling ks and shut it down - so you're basically telling him to stop posting entirely because without him posting here the thread is dead

so regardless of the quality of fansras picks, i still think you're completely out of line telling him to stop posting because it makes it harder for you check to see if one of the top sharps you've vetted shares his plays

and ironically, your post was the exact kind of post sigs mentioned when bid his farewell post announcing he'd stopped sharing his plays
Weird post dude. There is no value in just saying some random team name, with no line attached and a record that doesn't take into account odds. 17-25-1 could be way up or way down. That's like pre-school level sports betting.

No one wants to talk much in the way of really how to win at sports betting anymore (rsig provided a lot but few others wanted to publicly discuss) so we are left with random squares posting their picks in these threads. Is there a difference between fansrajoke saying "Yankees" and some other square saying "Yankees -125"? It's probably the difference between a **** sandwich and a **** sandwich with Covid, but I'd still take the **** sandwich sans Covid and I don't think it's inappropriate for someone to ask for their **** sandwich without the Covid.
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Old 04-26-2021, 04:06 PM   #129
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

I'll start posting my long-term losing daily picks and parlays, with lines, for you guys to laugh at to lighten the mood.
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Old 04-26-2021, 06:45 PM   #130
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Orioles, Phillies.

Enjoy the show somi, Iím glad that it got your attention so much lol

20-29-1
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Old 04-26-2021, 06:46 PM   #131
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

NBA 0-2 Cavs +10, Magic +10, Hawks -3.5
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Old 04-26-2021, 07:42 PM   #132
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

I didn’t have time to read all that lengthy responses. But you guys amaze me in every way. First of all, this thread is about MLB picks and discussion, it’s not let me hold your hand and walk you through how I got my picks!!! Let’s have some common ground first okay??? Then if you’re interested in how I got my picks, you ask me nicely. Tbh, there are no sharps that’s gonna show you exactly 123 how they got their picks these days anyway so you’re just wasting your time and my time. End of discussion, now back to MLB picks and discussion thread, any thing irrelevant mods please remove the comments to make this thread what it’s meant to be.
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Old 04-26-2021, 07:43 PM   #133
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Adding Angels, Mariners
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Old 04-26-2021, 08:38 PM   #134
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
somi,
I don't know why you leapt to this conception of me as some bus-station leech just hoping to vulture picks. My time would be better spent collecting cans than waiting to get tailable picks on this subforum. I, like most reasonable people here, come to this subforum for interesting discussions. Some idiot who doesn't even realize that the line they get on a baseball game is important doesn't offer anything interesting. (I'm still kind of blown away by how clueless fansra is—he literally seems to think that writing "Dodgers" has some universal meaning as if there is only one line available, and that there's no meaningful difference between getting the Dodgers at -122 or -147. It's astonishing.) And I think you're not thinking things through when you say that if fansra were to stop posting, the thread would die. What kills threads is zero-value trash, because people stop bothering to wade through it to see if there are any good posts. Take the Cuepee effect in the coronavirus thread. I hardly ever read that garbage anymore because the noise-to-signal is too high. That's what fansra is doing to this thread. If someone posts some interesting stats or trends here, I'm going to miss it because it's not worth my time to open this thread whenever it's bumped only to see "Marlins." And others aren't going to open this thread either for the same reason.
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Old 04-26-2021, 08:53 PM   #135
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

i agree with most of what you said and i apologize for equating you to being a vulture, i know that's not what you're about - i mostly felt you were a bit harsh, i could be mistaken but this was pretty much just the k model and that was shut down

just wish this sub was more encouraging and uplifting, i feel like you could have just asked him to nicely to post his picks in his own thread and i wouldn't have commented

but i do agree it'd be ideal for fans to create his own thread, on reflection you're indeed correct it's unlikely to foster more discussion here if its just a list of picks and thread title is indeed "discussion" - something i was very wrong to ignore myself when i responded
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:00 PM   #136
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Reds
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Old 04-26-2021, 10:01 PM   #137
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

With all these bs it’s even harder for me to keep track of my picks and my records on here. No good deed goes unpunished that’s very true.
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Old 04-26-2021, 11:31 PM   #138
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

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Originally Posted by somigosaden View Post
I don't know why you leapt to this conception of me as some bus-station leech just hoping to vulture picks. My time would be better spent collecting cans than waiting to get tailable picks on this subforum. I, like most reasonable people here, come to this subforum for interesting discussions. Some idiot who doesn't even realize that the line they get on a baseball game is important doesn't offer anything interesting. (I'm still kind of blown away by how clueless fansra isóhe literally seems to think that writing "Dodgers" has some universal meaning as if there is only one line available, and that there's no meaningful difference between getting the Dodgers at -122 or -147. It's astonishing.) And I think you're not thinking things through when you say that if fansra were to stop posting, the thread would die. What kills threads is zero-value trash, because people stop bothering to wade through it to see if there are any good posts. Take the Cuepee effect in the coronavirus thread. I hardly ever read that garbage anymore because the noise-to-signal is too high. That's what fansra is doing to this thread. If someone posts some interesting stats or trends here, I'm going to miss it because it's not worth my time to open this thread whenever it's bumped only to see "Marlins." And others aren't going to open this thread either for the same reason.
Since itís okay to criticize ppl not doing the way you want them to do is okay with mods, I guess I can continue this drama in this thread. This is the most horseshit thing Iíve read on this forum since Iíve joined. MLB picks and discussion has been the same year after year, nothing valuable here and youíre complaining about you might miss something good to you while Iím making noise. Youíre doing the same thing, making noise, other ppl can complain they couldnít see my picks because of this drama going on. Odds is important and everybody knows that, I did post odds early in this thread if you havenít noticed. What Iím doing is to save some time and make it easier for me to post picks. If you follow my picks and combine with your homework you mightíve found something interesting but youíre too lazy to do that. My picks might be valuable to some ppl and to you they might be not but you have no right to assume they have zero value to other ppl. But you win already, to make me realize that Iím wasting my time here. Truly thank you for that, Iím out, congrats!
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