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Old 04-16-2021, 07:30 PM   #76
BadBeatBodog
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/16 STRIKEOUTS
Jorge Lopez o4.5 -109 (PB) 2.02u
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Old 04-16-2021, 08:44 PM   #77
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/16 STRIKEOUTS
Frankie Montas o6.5 -103 (PB) 2.63u
Andrew Heaney o6.5 +100 (PB) 4.64u
Jose Urena o4.5 +120 (PB) 1.99u
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Old 04-16-2021, 09:59 PM   #78
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/16 STRIKEOUTS
Walker Buehler u7.5 -185 (PB) 5.6u
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Old 04-17-2021, 12:52 PM   #79
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
Daily Strikeouts: 6-6 +2.09u on 29.53u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 87-51-2 +52.68u on 368.63u risked

YTD Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked

YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked

4/16 STRIKEOUTS
Zach Davies o3.5 -156 (PB) 3.57u to win 2.288u LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/16 STRIKEOUTS
Michael Wacha u4.5 -114 (PB) 4.04u LOSS
Jeff Hoffman o4.5 -114 (PB) 2.43u LOSS

Might be rest of plays for tonight
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/16 STRIKEOUTS
Jorge Lopez o4.5 -109 (PB) 2.02u WIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/16 STRIKEOUTS
Frankie Montas o6.5 -103 (PB) 2.63u WIN
Andrew Heaney o6.5 +100 (PB) 4.64u LOSS
Jose Urena o4.5 +120 (PB) 1.99u WIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/16 STRIKEOUTS
Walker Buehler u7.5 -185 (PB) 5.6u WIN
Daily Strikeouts: 4-4 -4.86u on 26.92u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 91-55-2 +47.82u on 395.55u risked

YTD Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked

YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked

4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Tyler Glasnow u8.5 -114 (PB) 6.98u to win 6.123u

Edit to add: I might get burned on this as I have already betting against Glasnow a few times. His new third pitch might mean my lower IP projections need to be revised.

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 04-17-2021 at 01:01 PM.
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Old 04-17-2021, 12:56 PM   #80
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

yowsers, any particular reason for the u on glasnow or that's just what your model output?

I'm pretty heavy on him tonight
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Old 04-17-2021, 01:39 PM   #81
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Trevor Williams o4.5 -143 (PB) 3.65u to win 2.552u
Huascar Ynoa o5.5 +114 (PB) 1.95u to win 2.223u
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Old 04-17-2021, 01:40 PM   #82
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
yowsers, any particular reason for the u on glasnow or that's just what your model output?

I'm pretty heavy on him tonight
I'm just betting what the model spits out. My IP projection is probably too low now that Glasnow has a seemingly usable third pitch.
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Old 04-17-2021, 03:41 PM   #83
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Kwang Hyun Kim o3.5 -158 (BM) 3.95u to win 2.5u
Matt Moore o4.5 -130 (PB) 3.59u to win 2.762u
Nicholas Pivetta o4.5 -143 (PB) 4.63u to win 3.238u
Cole Irvin o3.5 -149 (PB) 1.53u to win 1.027u
Triston McKenzie u6.5 -167 (PB) 4.38u to win
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Old 04-17-2021, 04:22 PM   #84
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Pulled after 5 with 100 pitches at & 7k

Well done, less than ideal for my dfs but with just 1 er and 6 h+bb I can't complain

Enjoy following your thread, will probably start tailing next week

Keep up the good run
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Old 04-17-2021, 04:31 PM   #85
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Thanks that's more like the Glasnow I'm used to. Very good but not efficient.

4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Chi Chi Gonzalez u3.5 -120 (PB) 4.11u to win 3.425u
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Old 04-17-2021, 05:01 PM   #86
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Yeah, to be clear it's not the u8.5 as obviously 9k no way task for anyone, it's that you liked it enough for 7u that surprised me
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Old 04-17-2021, 05:56 PM   #87
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

I had ~7 strikeouts as the projection and that's what Poisson and Kelly told me to bet haha. Here's another doozy:

4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Sandy Alcantara u6.5 -114 (PB) 7.14u to win 6.263u
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Old 04-17-2021, 06:51 PM   #88
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Dane Dunning u4.5 +127 (PB) 3.42u to win 4.343u
Brett Anderson o3.5 -110 (PB) 2.46u to win 2.236u
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Old 04-17-2021, 07:05 PM   #89
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Looks like a bloodbath day so probably don't tail me the luck has run out.
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Old 04-17-2021, 08:23 PM   #90
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Sorry to hear that, you had a pretty good run up to the +52.68 unit peak. Hopefully the model doesn't give back too much to the market before it turns back around.
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Old 04-17-2021, 08:26 PM   #91
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

If you have time to run the numbers and don't mind sharing, I'm very curious to know what the model's root mean squared error and mean absolute error metrics look like compared to the numbers you've been betting into. Interested to see how much of an edge on those metrics was required to go on a +50 unit run.
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Old 04-17-2021, 08:34 PM   #92
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Clayton Kershaw u6.5 -111 (BM) 2.05u to win 1.847u
Zack Greinke o5.5 +136 (BM) 1.18u to win 1.605u
Chris Flexen o3.5 -167 (PB) 8.84u to win 5.293u

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 04-17-2021 at 08:45 PM. Reason: add greinke and flexen
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Old 04-18-2021, 11:40 AM   #93
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Got a few games looking good to me today, good luck!

Yanks -1.5 -120
Cards +150
Dbacks +150
Bosox -115
Reds +135

YTD 3-3
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Old 04-18-2021, 12:57 PM   #94
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
Daily Strikeouts: 4-4 -4.86u on 26.92u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 91-55-2 +47.82u on 395.55u risked

YTD Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked

YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked

4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Tyler Glasnow u8.5 -114 (PB) 6.98u to win 6.123u WIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Trevor Williams o4.5 -143 (PB) 3.65u to win 2.552u LOSS
Huascar Ynoa o5.5 +114 (PB) 1.95u to win 2.223u WIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Kwang Hyun Kim o3.5 -158 (BM) 3.95u to win 2.5u WIN
Matt Moore o4.5 -130 (PB) 3.59u to win 2.762u LOSS
Nicholas Pivetta o4.5 -143 (PB) 4.63u to win 3.238u LOSS
Cole Irvin o3.5 -149 (PB) 1.53u to win 1.027u WIN
Triston McKenzie u6.5 -167 (PB) 4.38u to win LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Chi Chi Gonzalez u3.5 -120 (PB) 4.11u to win 3.425u WIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Sandy Alcantara u6.5 -114 (PB) 7.14u to win 6.263u LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Dane Dunning u4.5 +127 (PB) 3.42u to win 4.343u LOSS
Brett Anderson o3.5 -110 (PB) 2.46u to win 2.236u LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/17 STRIKEOUTS
Clayton Kershaw u6.5 -111 (BM) 2.05u to win 1.847u LOSS
Zack Greinke o5.5 +136 (BM) 1.18u to win 1.605u WIN
Chris Flexen o3.5 -167 (PB) 8.84u to win 5.293u LOSS
Daily Strikeouts: 6-9 -23.26u on 59.86u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 97-64-2 +24.56u on 455.41u risked

YTD Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked

YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked

Welp I got crushed on a record of 6-9 lol. That's one way to lose all motivation for doing this. If anyone tailed I apologize I'm sorry I wrecked you.

4/18 STRIKEOUTS
Aaron Nola u7.5 -108 (PB) 2.76u to win 2.556u
Gerrit Cole u10 -141 (BM) 1.62u to win 1.149u
Madison Bumgarner u4.5 -113 (BM) 1.28u to win 1.133u
Shane Bieber u9.5 -120 (PB) 4.37u to win 3.641u
Wade Miley o4.5 +110 (PB) 5.26u to win 5.786u
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Old 04-18-2021, 02:00 PM   #95
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/18 STRIKEOUTS
Robbie Ray o5.5 +110 (PB) 1.3u to win 1.43u
Freddy Peralta o7.5 -105 (BM) .90u to win .857u
Kyle Gibson o4.5 -143 (PB) .87u to win .608u
Antonio Senzatela u3.5 +114 (PB) 2.38u to win 2.713u

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 04-18-2021 at 02:07 PM. Reason: add senzatela
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Old 04-18-2021, 03:40 PM   #96
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/18 STRIKEOUTS
Jake Odorizzi o5.5 -138 (BM) 1.64u to win 1.188u
Trevor Bauer u8.5 -130 (PB) 1.59u to win 1.223u
Blake Snell o7.5 +116 (BM) .95u to win 1.102u
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Old 04-19-2021, 10:16 AM   #97
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Taking White Sox today -110

YTD 4-7
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Old 04-19-2021, 12:17 PM   #98
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
Welp I got crushed on a record of 6-9 lol. That's one way to lose all motivation for doing this. If anyone tailed I apologize I'm sorry I wrecked you.
haven't tailed yet, just enjoying the thread, will likely start doing it for small amounts once but i often see them after the fact or am deep in my own rabbit hole of dfs projections

but my personal story aside, anyone tailing you clearly has no other options and even in the event your model is flawed, they are very much better off tailing something than just picking the guys they like

besides, i'm sure you know this as well, but you've been killing it thus far, even it's just variance anyone tailing you would have done well for themselves
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Old 04-19-2021, 06:46 PM   #99
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Phillies -110
Royals -120
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Old 04-19-2021, 07:08 PM   #100
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
Daily Strikeouts: 6-9 -23.26u on 59.86u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 97-64-2 +24.56u on 455.41u risked

YTD Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked

YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked

Welp I got crushed on a record of 6-9 lol. That's one way to lose all motivation for doing this. If anyone tailed I apologize I'm sorry I wrecked you.

4/18 STRIKEOUTS
Aaron Nola u7.5 -108 (PB) 2.76u to win 2.556u LOSS
Gerrit Cole u10 -141 (BM) 1.62u to win 1.149u PUSH
Madison Bumgarner u4.5 -113 (BM) 1.28u to win 1.133u LOSS
Shane Bieber u9.5 -120 (PB) 4.37u to win 3.641u LOSS
Wade Miley o4.5 +110 (PB) 5.26u to win 5.786u WIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/18 STRIKEOUTS
Robbie Ray o5.5 +110 (PB) 1.3u to win 1.43u LOSS
Freddy Peralta o7.5 -105 (BM) .90u to win .857u LOSS
Kyle Gibson o4.5 -143 (PB) .87u to win .608u WIN
Antonio Senzatela u3.5 +114 (PB) 2.38u to win 2.713u LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/18 STRIKEOUTS
Jake Odorizzi o5.5 -138 (BM) 1.64u to win 1.188u WIN
Trevor Bauer u8.5 -130 (PB) 1.59u to win 1.223u WIN
Blake Snell o7.5 +116 (BM) .95u to win 1.102u LOSS
Daily Strikeouts: 4-7-1 -5.14u on 23.3u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 101-71-3 +19.43u on 478.71u risked

YTD Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked

YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked

Going to pause the strikeouts experiment. After some thought and a little research I don't think pitcher strikeouts are Poisson because they are not rare enough of an event. Not sure what would be appropriate or what others use to do pitcher strikeouts when they have projections.

I did stumble across these posts on SBR when researching from our very own TomG and Poogs about this very subject, though:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...-total-ks.html

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...p-betting.html
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