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Old 04-07-2021, 08:02 PM   #26
BadBeatBodog
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/7 STRIKEOUTS
Antonio Senzatela u3.5 -113 (BM) 0.96u

4/7 BOVADA ONLY STRIKEOUTS
Antonio Senzatela u3.5 +100
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Old 04-08-2021, 12:37 PM   #27
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
Strikeouts: 8-8 -6.20u on 50.41u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 25-13-1 +12.63u on 92.43u risked

Hits: 0-2 -5.91u on 5.91u risked
YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked

4/7 STRIKEOUTS
Shane Bieber u9.5 -130 (PB) 4.0u LOSS
Kenta Maeda u6.5 -114 (PB) 4.41u WIN
Matt Boyd o5.5 +114 (PB) 2.41u WIN


4/7 BOVADA ONLY STRIKEOUTS
Nathan Eovaldi u5.5 +115 LOSS
Ryan Yarbrough o3.5 -130 LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/7 STRIKEOUTS
Brandon Woodruff u6.5 -130 (BM) 2.54u LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/7 STRIKEOUTS
Jesus Lazardo o5.5 -125 (PB) 3.12u WIN
Blake Snell o7.5 +114 (PB) 3.3u WIN
Flaherty o7.5 +118 (PB) 1.22u LOSS

4/7 BOVADA ONLY STRIKEOUTS
Jack Flaherty o6.5 -125 LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/7 STRIKEOUTS
Jameson Taillon u5.5 -149 (PB) 2.01u LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/7 STRIKEOUTS
Antonio Senzatela u3.5 -113 (BM) 0.96u WIN

4/7 BOVADA ONLY STRIKEOUTS
Antonio Senzatela u3.5 +100 WIN
Strikeouts: 5-4 +3.95u on 23.97u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 30-17-1 +16.58u on 116.4u risked

Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked
YTD Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked

YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked

There will be overlap in picks between the bovada and main strikeouts so it's just sorta to see how well the bovada picks do eventually since their odds are so much better.

4/8 STRIKEOUTS
Taijuan Walker o4.5 -143 (PB) 1.89u
Tyler Anderson o4.5 -156 (PB) 2.09u
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Old 04-08-2021, 12:38 PM   #28
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

nice mang, keep it up
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Old 04-08-2021, 01:16 PM   #29
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/8 STRIKEOUTS
Matt Harvey o3.5 -132 (BM) 2.17u
Jose Berrios u7 -120 (BM) 1.15u
Jon Gray u4.5 +127 (PB) 3.57u
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Old 04-08-2021, 02:44 PM   #30
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/8 STRIKEOUTS
Corbin Burnes u7.5 +100 (PB) 4.96u
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Old 04-08-2021, 04:43 PM   #31
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/8 STRIKEOUTS
Cole Irvin u3 -121 (BM) 1.21u+Cole Irvin u3 -129 (BM) .8u [this particular K prop only had a max of to win 1u]
Griffin Canning u5.5 -130 (PB) 4.89u
Christian Javier o4.5 -156 (PB) 2.51u
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Old 04-08-2021, 09:02 PM   #32
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Not sure if Kelly betting is working out for me because I'm getting absolutely crushed on my bigger bets.
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Old 04-08-2021, 10:23 PM   #33
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
Strikeouts: 5-4 +3.95u on 23.97u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 30-17-1 +16.58u on 116.4u risked

Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked
YTD Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked

YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked

4/8 STRIKEOUTS
Taijuan Walker o4.5 -143 (PB) 1.89u LOSS
Tyler Anderson o4.5 -156 (PB) 2.09u WIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/8 STRIKEOUTS
Matt Harvey o3.5 -132 (BM) 2.17u WIN
Jose Berrios u7 -120 (BM) 1.15u LOSS
Jon Gray u4.5 +127 (PB) 3.57u LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/8 STRIKEOUTS
Corbin Burnes u7.5 +100 (PB) 4.96u LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/8 STRIKEOUTS
Cole Irvin u3 -121 (BM) 1.21u+Cole Irvin u3 -129 (BM) .8u PUSH
Griffin Canning u5.5 -130 (PB) 4.89u LOSS
Christian Javier o4.5 -156 (PB) 2.51u WIN
3-5-1 −11.87u on 25.24u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 33-22-2 +4.71u on 141.64u risked

Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked
YTD Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked

YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked

Can we shatter the units risked in a 2+2 thread record? Should I go back to straight 1u risk/to win?

I remain unconvinced that I have a winning model here. NajdorfDefense, if you see this post are you able to tell me if my picks have generally been in line with yours or not so far?
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Old 04-09-2021, 02:32 PM   #34
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

I think maybe the bovada thing is stupid, but I'm gonna keep the kelly betting for now. If nothing else I think I would like that title of most units bet.

4/9 STRIKEOUTS
Rich Hill o5 +115 (BM) 1.68u
Austin Gomber o4.5 -105 (BM) 2.57u
Johnny Cueto o5.5 +111 (BM) 2.5u
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Old 04-09-2021, 06:02 PM   #35
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/9 STRIKEOUTS
Charlie Morton u5.5 +110 (BM) 1.51u
Kohei Arihara u3.5 +114 (BM) 1.11u
Sean Manaea u4.5 -167 (PB) 1.74u
Taylor Widener u5.5 -105 (BM) 2.62u+Taylor Widener u5.5 -112 (BM) 1.8u
Tyler Mahle u6.5 -167 (PB) 1.02u
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Old 04-10-2021, 02:34 AM   #36
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
I think maybe the bovada thing is stupid, but I'm gonna keep the kelly betting for now. If nothing else I think I would like that title of most units bet.

4/9 STRIKEOUTS
Rich Hill o5 +115 (BM) 1.68u WIN
Austin Gomber o4.5 -105 (BM) 2.57u WIN
Johnny Cueto o5.5 +111 (BM) 2.5u WIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/9 STRIKEOUTS
Charlie Morton u5.5 +110 (BM) 1.51u LOSS
Kohei Arihara u3.5 +114 (BM) 1.11u WIN
Sean Manaea u4.5 -167 (PB) 1.74u WIN
Taylor Widener u5.5 -105 (BM) 2.62u+Taylor Widener u5.5 -112 (BM) 1.8u WIN
Tyler Mahle u6.5 -167 (PB) 1.02u WIN
7-1 +12.67 on 25.24u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 40-23-2 +17.38u on 166.88u risked

Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked
YTD Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked

YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked
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Old 04-10-2021, 12:11 PM   #37
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/10 STRIKEOUT
Trevor Rogers o5.5 -167 (PB) 1.32u
Chris Archer o5.5 -125 (PB) 1.14u
Domingo Germán u5.5 +120 (PB) .88u
Carlos Martínez o4.5 -156 (PB) 3.23u
Jose Urquidy o5.5 +120 (PB) 1.88u

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 04-10-2021 at 12:19 PM. Reason: added urquidy
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Old 04-10-2021, 12:15 PM   #38
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

love me some chris archer, really hopes he figures out how to pitch consistently
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Old 04-10-2021, 01:57 PM   #39
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

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love me some chris archer, really hopes he figures out how to pitch consistently
Archer pitching well so far!

wow I think right as I posted this Archer walks off the field with an injury, really hope he is okay

4/10 STRIKEOUTS
Adrian Houser u4.5 -134 (BM) 1.51u

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 04-10-2021 at 02:13 PM. Reason: archer injury
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Old 04-10-2021, 03:19 PM   #40
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/10 STRIKEOUTS
Logan Webb o4.5 -167 (PB) 2.5u
Chi Chi Gonzalez u3.5 +100 (PB) 5.0u
Chris Paddack o5.5 -114 (PB) 2.03u
Zach Eflin u5.5 -120 (PB) 3.22u

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 04-10-2021 at 03:24 PM. Reason: add eflin
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Old 04-10-2021, 04:18 PM   #41
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/10 STRIKEOUTS
Zach Eflin u5.5 -120 (PB) 3.22u
Zach Davies o3.5 -202 (BM) 5.05u + o3.5 -215 (BM) 4.0u
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Old 04-10-2021, 04:41 PM   #42
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/10 STRIKEOUTS
Bruce Zimmermann o3.5 -135 (PB) 1.27u
Jose Quintana o3.5 -199 (BM) 2.5u
Steven Matz o4.5 -130 (PB) 1.29u
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Old 04-10-2021, 05:28 PM   #43
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/10 STRIKEOUTS
Riley Smith u5.5 -180 (BM) 4.5u + u5.5 -191 2.5u

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 04-10-2021 at 05:32 PM. Reason: riley smith not jeff hoffman
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Old 04-10-2021, 06:41 PM   #44
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

I had the wrong projection for Davies, should've been o3.5 -202 3.22u but I already bet so...let it ride
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Old 04-10-2021, 07:48 PM   #45
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

I posted the davies revised projection before he threw a pitch so I'll be using that in my record because I want the most accuracy in my record based on my projections, but since it lost if there are any objections please let me know. FYI if the bet had won I would've done the same thing. Sorry for the mixups.
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Old 04-11-2021, 12:33 AM   #46
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/10 STRIKEOUT
Trevor Rogers o5.5 -167 (PB) 1.32u WIN
Chris Archer o5.5 -125 (PB) 1.14u LOSS
Domingo Germán u5.5 +120 (PB) .88u WIN
Carlos Martínez o4.5 -156 (PB) 3.23u LOSS
Jose Urquidy o5.5 +120 (PB) 1.88u WIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/10 STRIKEOUTS
Adrian Houser u4.5 -134 (BM) 1.51u WIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/10 STRIKEOUTS
Logan Webb o4.5 -167 (PB) 2.5u WIN
Chi Chi Gonzalez u3.5 +100 (PB) 5.0u WIN
Chris Paddack o5.5 -114 (PB) 2.03u LOSS
Zach Eflin u5.5 -120 (PB) 3.22u WIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/10 STRIKEOUTS
Zach Eflin u5.5 -120 (PB) 3.22u DUPLICATE BET
Zach Davies o3.5 -202 (BM) 5.05u + o3.5 -215 (BM) 4.0u LOSS*
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/10 STRIKEOUTS
Bruce Zimmermann o3.5 -135 (PB) 1.27u WIN
Jose Quintana o3.5 -199 (BM) 2.5u WIN
Steven Matz o4.5 -130 (PB) 1.29u LOSS
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
4/10 STRIKEOUTS
Riley Smith u5.5 -180 (BM) 4.5u + u5.5 -191 2.5u WIN
*Like I said before, for the accuracy of my projections I am counting the Davies loss based on what I posted the bet should have been (-3.22 not -9.05). I would have done this win or lose. If anyone thinks this isn't the right way to record keep please let me know.

10-5 +9.51 on 37.99u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 50-28-2 +26.89u on 204.87u risked

YTD Bovada Only Strikeouts: 1-3 -2.55u on 4.55u risked

YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked
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Old 04-11-2021, 05:34 AM   #47
rickroll
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

curious about your unit sizing, not used to seeing so many units on a single prop but then again i think i'm used to people sharing who reach max bet size once they clear a single unit so could be biased by that

would love to read how you determine that
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Old 04-11-2021, 11:38 AM   #48
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

Sorry I had a feeling the Kelly betting would become a thing. Few people here use Kelly because yeah you're right they're just maxing and relaxing, especially low limit props.


I wanted to be conservative because I didn't know what I had with this model so I just am using an imaginary bankroll of $10,000 and basically one unit = $100. Technically, I should be maxing and relaxing some (most?) of these. But at $100 a unit all of my bets are accurate, i.e. I'm betting exactly that much. I am still going back and forth about the use of Kelly. It would've been easier had I just done one unit to win/lose obviously.
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Old 04-11-2021, 12:34 PM   #49
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/11 STRIKEOUTS
JT Brubaker u5.5 -135 (PB) 2.38u
Jorge Lopez o3.5 -110 (BM) 2.1u
Marcus Stroman o5.5 +125 (PB) 2.91u
Logan Allen o4.5 +127 (BM) 2.36u
Jose Urena o3.5 +112 (BM) 1.14u
Tanner Roark o3.5 -114 (PB) 1.85u

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 04-11-2021 at 12:46 PM. Reason: add roark
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Old 04-11-2021, 01:30 PM   #50
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Re: 2021 2+2 General MLB Picks and Discussion

4/11 STRIKEOUTS
Matt Shoemaker o4.5 -164 (BM) 1.73u
Chris Flexen o4.5 -103 (BM) 1.16u
Mike Minor u6.5 -141 (BM) 2.15u
Brett Anderson u3.5 -123 (BM) 1.96u
Adrian Morejon o4.5 +100 (PB) 4.24u
Mike Foltynewicz u5 -120 (BM) .97u
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