I figured I would start a 2021 MLB thread for everyone to post whatever MLB related stuff they want so I don't clog the crowdsource thread with my [losing] picks.

4/4 Strikeouts
Jeff Hoffman o3.5 -156 (Prop Builder)
Domingo German u5.5 -115 (Bovada)
Ian Anderson u5.5 +120 (PB)
Zach Eflin u5.5 +120 (Bovada)

4/4 Strikeouts Continued
Adrian Houser u4.5 +127 (Prop Builder)
Brady Singer u5.5 -130 (PB)
Zach Davies o3.5 -156 (PB)
Mitch Keller u5.5 -130 (Bovada)
Chris Paddack u5.5 -114 (PB)
Dylan Cease u4.5 -114 (PB)

awesome man, will be following along

swamped with work but planning on building one myself this year

4/4 HIT OR NO HIT
Mitch Garver YES HIT +100 (Bovada/BAS)
Avisail Garcia YES HIT -195 (BAS)
Keston Hiura YES HIT -182 (Prop Builder)
Brock Holt YES HIT -160 (Bovada/BAS)
Andrew Benintendi YES HIT -240 (Bovada/BAS)
Adam Frazier YES HIT -230 (BAS)
AJ Pollock YES HIT -280 (Bovada/BAS)
Justin Turner YES HIT -300 (Bovada)
Will Smith YES HIT -215 (BAS)
Ryan McMahon YES HIT -160 (Bovada)
Josh Fuentes YES HIT -200 (Bovada)

Last post sorry for multiples, will try to avoid this in the future.

4/4 HIT OR NO HIT
Elvis Andrus YES HIT -140 (BAS)
Jake Cronenworth YES HIT -190 (BAS)
David Peralta YES HIT -180 (BAS)
David Fletcher YES HIT -195 (BAS)
Nick Madrigal YES HIT -140 (Bovada)

gl

Let’s jumpstart the season with a winner.

Twins -150

Strikeouts: 8-2 +6.27u on 12.15u risked
Hits: 7-8 -9.77u on 29.07u risked

Not a great start but it's a long season. Trying to sneak this first game in and then I will have the rest in a later post. I think being a sports bettor on the west coast is -ev. Going to start kelly betting, will always be units risked whether favorite or dog.

4/5 Strikeouts
Jose Urena o3.5 -146 (BM) 2.07u

4/5 HIT OR NO HIT
Luis Arraez YES HIT -240 (Bovada) 4.35u
Jorge Polanco YES HIT -222 (Prop Builder) 1.65u

Sorry one more post after this with rest of hit stuff.

4/5 STRIKEOUTS
Steven Matz o4.5 -167 (Prop Builder) 2.28u
Danny Duffy o3.5 -167 (PB) 4.05u
Logan Allen o4 +105 (BM) 1.45u
Jordan Montgomery o4.5 -167 (PB) 3.13u
Jose De Leon o5 +113 (BM) 2.13u
Daniel Ponce de Leon o5 -130 (BM) 1.11u
Jacob deGrom u8.5 +100 (PB) 2.07u
Michael Wacha o3.5 -149 (PB) 1.27u
Jose Quintana o3.5 -135 (BM) 2.44u
Frankie Montás o4.5 -130 (PB) 3.12u
Anthony DeSclafani o4 -123 (BM) 0.73u
Carlos Rodon o5.5 +100 (PB) 4.02u

4/5 HIT OR NO HIT
Eli White NO HIT +155 (BAS) 1u
David Dahl YES HIT -195 (BAS) 1.95u
Randal Grichuk YES HIT -190 (Bovada) 1.16u

Let’s test my luck again.

Reds -155

4/5 HIT OR NO HIT
Gleyber Torres YES HIT -215 (BAS) 1.23u
Gary Sanchez YES HIT -170 (Bovada) 1.18u
Adam Frazer YES HIT -215 (BAS) 1.23u
Tyler O'Neill YES HIT -150 (Bovada) 1.27u
Jeff McNeil YES HIT -200 (Bovada) 2.67u
J.D.Davis YES HIT -195 (BAS) 1.28u
Yoshi TsuTsugo YES HIT -118 (Prop Builder) 2.98u
Enrique Hernandez YES HIT -182 (PB) 1.12u
Willy Adames YES HIT -165 (BAS) 1u

4/5 HIT OR NO HIT
Christian Yelich YES HIT -222 (PB) 4.13u
Keston Hiura YES HIT -182 (PB) 3.28u
Omar Narvaez YES HIT -165 (Bovada) 1.94u
Anthony Rizzo YES HIT -182 (PB) 2.84u
Wilson Contreras YES HIT -182 (PB) 2.23u
Carlos Correa YES HIT -170 (Bovada) 2.53u
Nick Madrigal YES HIT -170 (PB) 1.74u

Strikeouts: 9-3-1 +12.56u on 29.87u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 17-5-1 +18.83u on 42.02u risked

Hits: 12-9 -6.71u on 42.76u risked
YTD Hits: 19-17 -16.48u on 71.83u risked

4/6 STRIKEOUTS
Casey Mize u4.5 -114 (Prop Builder) 3.63u

4/6 HIT OR NO HIT
Luis Arraez YES HIT -250 (Bovada) 4.01u
Wilson Ramos YES HIT -190 (BAS) 1.9u

Good stuff. Did you decide to go with full or fractional Kelly?

Let’s go with the Nats today -120 and -1.5 +160

This is fractional, concerned with how big some of the edges I think I have are but we will see how it goes. Probably taking a break from hits for the rest of the games today.

4/6 STRIKEOUTS
Dylan Bundy u5.5 -130 (PB) 3.93u
Gerrit Cole u8.5 +110 (BM) 1.26u
Marcus Stroman u5 -115 (BM) 1.28u
Tyler Glasnow u6.5 +100 (BM) 1.75u
Adbert Alzolay u5 -150 (BM) 3.65u
Germán Márquez u5.5 -125 (PB) 3.26u
Lucas Giolito u8.5 -124 (BM) 2.07u
James Paxton o5.5 -149 (PB) 4.45u
Dean Kremer u4.5 +121 (BM) 2.5u+Dean Kremer u4.5 +115 (BM) 2.5u
Wade Miley o4 -115 (BM) 2.87u
Freddy Peralta u6.5 -130 (BM) 3.25u+Freddy Peralta u6.5 -139 (BM) 2.0u
Dane Dunning u4.5 -132 (BM) 1.49u
Tanner Roark u4.5 -160 (BM) 3.74u
Yu Darvish u7.5 -125 (BM) 2.15u
Chris Bassitt o3.5 -149 (PB) 4.63u

How does WAS -112 not seem like a myspace true lock with scherzer vs smiley

Smyly is beloved by most of the various twitter pitching stats I've seen concocted by all the smart people making these stats and sharing them for free. He had one of the lowest projected wOBA against last season afaik.

Pittsburgh +180
Tampa +100

i get that but scherzer yo

Yeah fwiw I bet washington but it wasn't big so I agree with you overall

Strikeouts: 8-8 -6.20u on 50.41u risked
YTD Strikeouts: 25-13-1 +12.63u on 92.43u risked

Hits: 0-2 -5.91u on 5.91u risked
YTD Hits: 19-19 -22.39u on 77.74u risked

Really bad day, our bet sizing did us in with strikeouts and I think I'm going to retire the hits prop until we start to get some statcast data for hitters and the sample sizes become reliable.

Also, I noticed bovada has really soft strikeout lines compared to other books sometimes but I don't want to include lines that aren't widely available in my record, although I know some people reading this have access to bovada. So I'm going to post the bovada strikeouts separately so anyone following can bet those if they want. My limits on there are only to bet/win $100 so my bovada picks will always be risk/to win $100 but maybe your limits are higher.

4/7 STRIKEOUTS
Shane Bieber u9.5 -130 (PB) 4.0u
Kenta Maeda u6.5 -114 (PB) 4.41u
Matt Boyd o5.5 +114 (PB) 2.41u


4/7 BOVADA ONLY STRIKEOUTS
Nathan Eovaldi u5.5 +115
Ryan Yarbrough o3.5 -130

how many innings you projecting yarborough for, do you treat the TB guys differently?

Projection of 4.4 IP. Yes the opener situation gets tricky but it involves me trying to follow what the Rays are doing. It seems yarborough has ascended past opener status.

4/7 STRIKEOUTS
Brandon Woodruff u6.5 -130 (BM) 2.54u [I noticed someone betting this at the same time as me]

4/7 STRIKEOUTS
Jesus Lazardo o5.5 -125 (PB) 3.12u
Blake Snell o7.5 +114 (PB) 3.3u
Flaherty o7.5 +118 (PB) 1.22u

4/7 BOVADA ONLY STRIKEOUTS
Jack Flaherty o6.5 -125 [BM doesn't have a line for some reason but this is much better than PB if you have access]

Also my yarborough IP projection might even be low tbh

4/7 STRIKEOUTS
Jameson Taillon u5.5 -149 (PB) 2.01u