Just stating the facts bro. You trying to cover up more than CNN.

Sorry if I hurt your feelings

g

What is that? Is it based on polls, is it your personal prediction or what?

Sure I'm emotionally invested because I'd like to see trump lose but that doesn't change what the data says to bet on.

I'm also emotionally invested every time my fav sports teams play it doesn't mean I bet on them every game.

I hate sweating unders bets because it makes the game unwatchable but I still have piles on the under when it's the correct bet

I'd love to see Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham lose but I'm not lining up to bet McGrath and Harrison and fully expect to be disappointed when Graham doesn't lose most of the time despite trailing in a lot of polls

I wanted yang or warren to win the dem nomination but didn't bet either of them because the price wasn't correct etc

The data says Biden is a bigger fav than the price I got and I could currently arb my bet for a ton of profit although not going to as I think Biden wins a huge majority of the time from here

Trump out to +205 on Betfair today fwiw

can't believe the GOPs polls are skewed too /s

i bought some GOP AZ, FL, NC, GA, OH, TEX shares in July. bought Biden shares in September. sold my AZ/FL/NC GOP shares over the last week to buy Dems to win presidency and PA

a little tempting to just rip all in on Biden at the current prices, but could also zero out my GOP action or let it ride.

Thanks

Ship it!

Wow that guy is delusional levels of wrong

Wow, so Trump is gonna win by bigger margins than last time.
Looks like around 320 Electoral votes to me?
Russia must be counting the votes for US.

based on this what do you pundits think about Republicans to win Michigan +225?

I personally don't care who wins, so this is coming from a unbiased point of view. Is this bad for Biden?



I'm looking at this through two points of views

1) 18-29 lower turn out favors Trump
2) Counterpoint: If you mail in your vote you can't post an instagram picture of you with your I Voted sticker which removes incentive to vote therefore this doesn't mean anything.

Everyone thinking Biden is going to win is as delirious as he is when he doesn’t rest for 4 days straight. As the days progress, Miami-Dade county is becoming redder by the day. The in person voting is quickly catching up to the lame lead by mail dems have. Expect a massive surge come Nov 3.

Also look at Biden’s Twitter account, where he says “return those ballots”. It’s OVER.

Look at his “rally” in PA today, you can hear the far off Trump supporters honking and jeering more loudly than the handful of people present next to the guy. I’m willing to bet there were more counter protestors than people present at Biden’s “rally”.

Talk about delusional with you all lol.

Quick addition is look at the donations coming from bell weather working counties, many of these critical areas have 2x-10x more donations going to Trump than Biden. NPR’s open secrets shows this for given areas. Either these donations are false or the polls are, gee I wonder which?

Is there a way to bet if this with be resolved by either party conceding by Nov 4? Wonder what the line on that is

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...come-be-called

Thanks!

These numbers are from a model (as Michigan does not release party registration information) and NBC has not been even updating the most recent numbers from said model. You can see the most updated numbers from the model here https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

Based on the polled early vote preference, as well as the *actual* party numbers on early voting in other states that release it, this model is insanely wrong. In the real world, Democrats likely have a very large lead in early vote (as they do in most places) and Trump will be trying to make it up on election day, probably unsuccessfully.

where are you getting this data from? the source mentioned in the graphic indicates democrats with an early vote advantage in michigan

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/...l=All&state=MI

Here's some data of donations for the "10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed" according to the Hill[0]. Matched the amounts from NPR's donations page[1].

Macomb County, MI
Biden: $371,035
Trump: $1,808,986

Luzerne County, PA
Biden: $246,029
Trump: $373,833

Kenosha County, WI
Biden: $86,987
Trump: $279,975

Robeson County, NC
Biden: $27,975
Trump: $81,967

Kenosha County, WI
Biden: $86,987
Trump: $279,975

Glades County, FL
Biden: $1,759
Trump: $29,950

Denton County, TX
Biden: $864,306
Trump: $2,460,917

Apache County, AZ
Biden: $8,127
Trump: $54,251

Grays Harbor County, WA
Biden: $53,024
Trump: $113,085

Conejos County, CO
Biden: $3,147
Trump: $4,393

Scott County, IA
Biden: $121,096
Trump: $252,108

Not a single county has Biden leading in donations despite his "record breaking" collections.

[0] https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...tion-is-headed

[1] https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/85834...-2020-election

what are some bellwether states with voter registration by party? i would like to look at some examples of what you're describing.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...chigan-results

What states release actual party numbers before the election is over? I thought a majority of that was based on exit polls (which historically are problematic like surveys but people tend to put more weight on exit polls for some reason). I believe TargetSmart uses both exit polls and survey data in their model.

A lot of states report party registration of early voters (no state reports who they actually voted for of course). For example, IA and PA in the midwest, NC and FL in the south. Of course you have to be careful with party registration because unaffiliated voters lean differently depending on the state (and in the South there are still a lot of Dixiecrats that have been voting republican for 20+ years).

I like this source https://electproject.github.io/Early...20G/index.html which reports just what the states themselves do rather than modelling nonsense.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html
https://electproject.github.io/Early...20G/index.html
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NV.html

Not all states report party affiliation. This is a small sample size.
I am not promoting one outcome over another. Far be it for me to try to sway how anyone wagers here. It's up to each one to make of these graphs what they will.

DefNotRsiggley and TomG are off limits. Anyone here critisizes them in the slightest are doomed to Hades!