I lost a decent amout of $$ betting on Hillary in 2016. I'm finally pulling the Biden trigger this year. Given the current numbers its hard not to. If it doesn't work out I'm retiring permanently from election betting lol.

His sports stuff is obviously absolute trash, but his politics stuff is fine in general if you'd bet his predictions every cycle from 2008-2018 as of day before the election based on probabilities vs betting odds pretty sure you'd have done reasonably well

Obv he isn't infalliable or anything but weighted polling averages do still have value

His sports predictions obviously have no value whatsoever but he's reasonable for politics stuff, people forget he had Trump at about 30% when the market had him in the 20s on election day from memory and a bunch of dumb pundits and analysts had Hillary at 99% etc

https://politicalwire.com/2020/10/19...r-biden-story/

Biden story is being called a Russian information campaign by 50 senior intelligence officials, Trump back to +16x from +148 or so yesterday - I assume a combination of that plus the ruling that Pennsylvania can count the absentee ballots for an extra few days messes with Republican plans to invalidate/disqualify as many postal votes as possible etc and I guess also the rules for the third debate allowing the moderator to cut the microphones to so the candidates can't talk over each other

Still been a good few days for Trump odds movement wise, but I think that's driven by the BuT hUnTeR bIdEn'S eMaIls stuff and not a tightening in the polls unless we see that in polls released over the next day or two

These Hunter Biden emails don't seem to be moving the needle at all. Even if true, I don't think the vast majority of people really care that much about the former VP's son. There were so many people voting solely against Hillary in 2016 and that's just not happening with Biden, his favorability (or unfavorability ratings) fare way better than Hillary's, especially with independents and undecideds or whatever these people call themselves.

Just curious, any of you guys making big bets on individual states??

Added more Trump +150

Do you think your continual blather that the candidate you like more is a great bet, posted over and over again in slightly different iterations contributes anything to the thread? I can’t point out anything specific which you’ve posted because I don’t read your posts, but I do know that when I see your avatar, I automatically scroll past. That should tell you something about the value you bring to this thread. Ok

There was an upset in 2016 and recency bias because Trump over performed his polling by a couple percent in 2016 and ran the table on it going exactly where it needed to go so people want to be on the underdog/same candidate

But Hunter Biden's emails scandal somehow gains actual traction (unlikely)

Trump's efforts to cheat/**** with the postal vote which skews heavily Dem due to Dems taking pandemic more seriously and potential right-wing supreme court may decide election if it's at all close like in 2000 (this and turnout are the two big threats)

Risk of low turnout due to pandemic on D side only which helps Republicans (unlikely due to Dem base hating Trump, but Dem base does take Covid more seriously and more likely to avoid crowds/etc so it's a possibility, like if turnout was sub 54% or so Trump is decently live and if it's like 50% he'd be a fav, by 60% or so Trump is drawing absolutely dead)

Actual Biden scandal of some sort drops that people care about (not the dumb but his son's emails and he maybe set up an inappropriate meeting or whatever as VP no one gives a **** about that)

October surprise of some sort that actually improves Trump's polling numbers by a few percent so he's within the margin of error in enough states that he has decent paths to 270. Something along the lines of attempted assassination to gain sympathy vote, massive leftist riots on much larger scale than previously, major terror attack on home soil, etc

Biden looks completely senile at third debate/in some public appearance on previously unseen scale so the senile sleepy joe attacks might stick more/Biden dies and Dems replace with less likeable candidate/Biden gets Covid and is on ventilator/verge of death for weeks or whatever during election day (all of these scenarios are also unlikely but who knows)

At least, as someone who thinks Biden is more like a 75-80% fav atm, that's my take on 'ways Biden can lose'

Partisans just betting on their team basically putting enough rec money into the market that neither side is likely to get much above +200 at least until election day

I mean you could still fade Hillary for all sorts of stuff at ridiculous numbers in the 2020 cycle long after it was clear she wasn't running for anything just because of the Qanon cult type people propping up random Hillary gets indicted/Hillary runs for President/Biden secretly planning to drop out and make way for Hillary/Hillary will be VP/Hillary will be VP and have Biden murdered random conspiracy theory of the day

Pick your reason

Right now you can get stuff like Dems win Cali at 93% or (lol) Dems win DC at 96% on Predictit yeah that's not a real book, but there are real books out there with dumb -1000 to -10000 prices on stuff that is way over 99% to win

That doesn't remotely mean there is a 4% chance that Trump wins DC it just means markets are irrational for no reason sometimes and not a ton of people want to tie up money to make 4% you can get the same sort of numbers on Biden to win in Oklahoma in no universe are either of those scenarios happening yet some markets are pricing them as high as 4%

Obv on election day i'll all-in the bankroll on various locks like that but theres no reason to tie up the funds for a month plus when the numbers will be similar on the day again for no reason

But yeah, Biden *can* still lose but there is absolutely no data to suggest Trump is anything close to a favourite, a lot can happen still but there's only one debate and two weeks or so left, so Trump is drawing a lot thinner than he was a month ago as the clock runs out without any change in polling. He really needs to gain a few percent in the midwest if he's going to have a realistic chance, because Trump isn't picking off enough Hillary states to get to 270 if he loses WI MI PA

And over how many elections would one build up "feel" from such unclear feedback?

Not yet because the odds aren't good (though they're getting closer to the overall odds). I'll probably get out of Biden-president before the election and like in 2016 I'll build my wall a bit further back from the battleground (Biden for Colorado, Nevada, Minnesota type of stuff) - though it depends on the odds - I may stick mostly with just Biden-president if he looks safe enough.

Following the tip from reading Chuck's post I have bet no overall control in the senate - which on Betfair rules (need 51 regardless of VP, independents don't count) means Dems need to go from their current 45 to somewhere between 48 and 50 - so turning over 4-6 Rep states assuming they don't hold on to Alabama. At least according to the 538 model the 7th most likely state for them to take in the senate is Montana - if that goes Dem then it's a landslide generally. I may also go for some Republican to control senate too or just close the position depending on how the market moves.

Rarely do you see a thread just completely devolve like this.

I don’t know what a chuck bass is but I detest it and wish it would stop forever.

Agreed. I haven’t read a post by this guy yet.

Honestly you guys are brutal. Both sides. This is making me sad for some reason reading all this

MI, MN, WI all look to be good value on Pinny. 538 gives them 88-92%, their current line is around -240 to -290.

Things to look for:
* How the states voted in the 2018 midterms
* Early voting returned ballots by RVs
* Trump approval rating by state
* Response to the questions such as: Is the country headed in the right direction? How is Trump handling Covid?
* State lean (they are all even or +1 dem)

From the above, a state like MI should probably be -1100 or so. (Whitmer's approval rating went from 43% -> 59% this year because people in MI liked her Covid response)

FWIW, most pollsters are waiting for after the debate to conduct any new polls so theres currently a good window right now to jump on.

So if this was the Monday before election day in 2008, Nate's stuff might beat the market. Too bad it's 2020 and 2 weeks out.

The reality is this: any publicly available model that is widely known either becomes the market or doesn't beat the market going forward. Everyone knows about Nate/538 in 2020. Same thing with Kenpom. Probably beat the market in 2003. Doesn't come close today.

NOOOOO BUT I LOOKED ON HECKIN 538 AND READ NATERINOOOOO I HAVE EDGE ON MARKET!!!!!!!!!!!

What do you mean? Trump went from +240 to +150 within like 24 hours over this fake scandal. It's a bigger movement than Trump getting covid, Trump's tax reveals, or anything else in a similar timeframe. That's how logical the markets are.

I have a bunch of state bets but only because I was being an idiot and it took me a while to realize that it's just way higher EV to bet Biden straight up. The thing is you can bet on Biden winning basically any state and it's +EV, and some of them are very +EV (I saw Michigan -250 today when it's probably ~90%? lol), but it's just always going to be way way more EV to bet Biden straight up. That's where the funplayer money is, random "2016 all over again!" dudes aren't betting the state markets, they are all just betting on Trump somehow winning presidency again. It's understandable to want to limit your risk by betting on different states, but I think it's flat out impossible to justify it from an EV perspective as opposed to just betting on Biden electorial college win.

Two economists walking down the street:

One economist says to the other "Look, someone's dropped a 100-dollar bill."

The other economist says "No they haven't. Someone would have picked it up if that had happened."

-------------------

I'm not American and I think people who care about the internal politics of other countries should almost always pay more attention to the internal politics of their own country. I just care about getting value.

If the markets are supposedly so efficiently priced then how come earlier in the cycle Trump was at 1.85 on Betfair (roughly -117 I think) both to get to 2020 or later and exactly the same odss, 1.85 to finish his term, when the latter possibility requires him to last an extra 12.5 months? The price of 1.85 was also ridiculous, there was a lot of anti-Trump emotional betting in those "Trump-fail" markets. I bet Trump then and I think I got good value.

How impartial. You show up and attack everyone but you add no value except to announce how smug you are.

You don't read my posts but you're an expert on what I'm posting. Do your realize how much of an absolute idiot this makes you sound like?

I haven't said a single thing about which candidate I "like more" aside from the fact that, from the perspective of betting, Biden is the better value. Models could be wrong by as much as 20 percentage points and Biden would still be a better bet. If you can't discuss why or why not this is, then you do not belong here.

You're using past tense here. You can still get filled for a max bid at 96-94c No for Hillary to run in 2020 today if you wanted.

Hunter Biden charges hit the 30s yesterday

Biden to drop by November 1st is at 9c.

biden backers you getting nervous yet? 538 rated A/B pollster says this one is close

Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll

biden just spewing support

That $100 bill has been sitting there for years, everyone knows about it and yet no one goes near it. Weird.

No one is arguing some microstakes market where you have to tie up your money for 3-4 years is efficient or even close.

You're talking s*** about me but saying you haven't read a post by me. What value are you adding except to act like an idiot?

Y'all are mad that I am saying Biden is undervalued like it's a political debate about which candidate I support. It's not. If you can't comprehend this then that's not my problem.

Spewing support? Wat



If you make a judgement about this race based on one poll when you have many available you're doing it wrong.

bro

Lmao

She's running

Well I threw down $100 on Biden solid tie at +275 and $100 on Trump tie predominantly red -150 for next debate. Really looking for the red/blue solid tie combo. With increased partisanship seems decent.

For debates def seems a big fav Biden has a mostly/all blue tie and Trump has mostly/all red

I added some extra Biden -150 today, got 4u or so total now at maybe just under -140ish average, Betfair has -161/-163 for back/lay and one of my locals had Biden -150, so can't say no to what I think is the right side when it's decently offmarket vs a 277 million matched on betfair market with someone trying to get 105k on -161 when I can get -150 - my soft local took a big whack without it capping out the market which was very surprising to me didn't think it'd take that much

I still think there's a strong chance there may be inplay value on election day early in the count, but I have enough now that i'm happy to just hold my position if I don't see any insane value

As I typed this Biden just moved in another cent on Betfair so that's nice I guess

Took a look at the polling, the IBD polls have Biden +2 and +3 by registered and likely voters but they do have the third smallest sample size and the decent sample of remaining polls are all in the Biden +8 to +13 range

Unless we start to see a trend of more and more polls showing it within the margin of error nationally i'm not super concerned, but obv nothing is a lock this far out

I do remain confident Biden is the 60%+ to win that the price I got today requires to be the right side tho

FWIW one of my locals also has Trump 270-299 EVs at +600, so worst case i'll hedge a little for some leeway but we'll see how the next couple weeks play out. Trump winning every realistic swing state plus the whole Midwest is only 306, so one swing state to Biden and Trump is under 300, I still think the most likely outcome is Biden at about 330-340 EV range but we'll see in a couple weeks I guess