Do you actually believe in “Russian Hackers” lol

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp20...16.html#item-4

Now obv the Krassensteins are Dem partisans and not a viable source, but the matter is going to get investigated by the FBI and they'll get to the bottom of it eventually

It's not a clear cut case though the - Hunter Biden flew across the country to drop his computers containing incriminating info off at a blind guy's store and never came back for them and then the guy copied the files and gave them to Rudy Giuliani who in turn instead of verifying them with law enforcement decided to turn them over to a Murdoch (Fox News owner) media outlet - obviously this story is not what happened, whether the documents/emails are real or not will clearly come out now that law enforcemnent is investigating and if they are real, they certainly weren't obtained in the manner that Giuliani and co originally claimed.

To insinuate that Russia doesn't want Trump to win is absurd they've openly said as much and the intelligence community showed clearly that they interfered in 2016, there is no reason to believe they're not doing it again and the Trump campaign embraced that help once and will do so again

Whether there is anything to this Hunter Biden stuff other than he obviously had a drug problem and is still very much up for debate

If someone who's 100% convinced it's all real wants to lay odds let's bet, escrow 10k vs my 1k i'll take minimum of one of these 'Hunter Biden's hard drive' documents/emails proven to be a fake within 18 months. After all, that's what this thread is about, betting on things - or anyone reputable/vouched for we can do it without escrow

Would also take 'exact story as told by Giuliani determined not to be true' at evens (regardless of whether docs are real or not) - if any interest in that we can hammer out the specific terms/grading

Take your tin foil hat off mate.

Hey if you disagree the bet offers are right there in the post

I mean Hunter Biden stuff is unlikely to change enough peoples minds to make a difference anyway but the information has not been confirmed to be credible yet

I'm not saying it definitely won't be but again

Bet offers are in the post

It's achieved the desired effect of getting Trump a 'but his emails' to rail on, but voting has already started, he's going to need to improve his position by a ton with independents to have a chance

I realize that political forums are full of conspiracy theory lunatics, but imagine stumbling into a betting forum, looking at odds, being given an opportunity to grab 60% interest for your money over 16 days at a bet that's probably at least 85% to hit, and instead of accepting all the free money people are trying to throw at you you choose to believe absurd conspiracy theories which, even if they somehow were true, would not affect the election.

PS. I guess these burismorons got what they wanted, since the FBI opened an investigation... to find out if the so-called emails are from Kremlin

Bought more Biden today, can't stop laughing at this ridiculous market. Trump gets covid, the line barely moves. Biden stutters for 2 seconds, Trump's odds skyrocket. It's revealed Trump is broke and paid less taxes than a 13 year old boy delivering newspapers, the line barely moves. A bunch of lunatics spam the internet with the most obvious fake story of all time that the actual media doesn't even bother to spread, Trump's odds skyrocket.

This is why the odds are so good. There are hordes or ******s waiting to bet on Trump who interpret every little negative move for Biden as Trump winning by a landslide, and there isn't enough money to cover the other side because 99,999% of the "fun money" is on Trump. Biden's side would need to match it by 2:1 for the odds to even just stay afloat, and people would need to be movitated to do it for just a measly 50-60% gain when you can get 200% betting on Stable Genius!!!1 so obv people choose the other side.

It's free money, and you choose to go on and on about EMAILZ instead. I would recommend finding other hobbies than sports betting because probability clearly isn't your thing

You’re actually insane. Good luck betting Biden, if he wins your money going to be useless anyway.

It’s laughable how confident you are about this market.

If your argument here that people only listen to the stuff the mainstream media said was true, Hillary would have absolutely slaughtered in 2016.

Nobody has given any argument why this is different than 2016 except "But yo polls bro, was within the margin of error last time now it isnt lolz" and "Well Biden isn't as hated as Hillary"

Those may be true but remain to be proven. At this point you are guessing just like the rest of us.

Swoop, you realize the Bidens are originally from Delaware, right?

You're so dishonest in the way you present information "Well, he was in LA but he flew ALL the way over to Delaware for no reason and happened to drop off the laptop there"

Like, maybe he was visiting some of his family that was there? And then dropped off the laptop.

But you are so incredibly biased, look at how you present the SAME information.

I'm not even a Trump supporter, honestly. I bet him and I think he's done some good stuff, but he's clearly in the pocket of Israel, as is Biden.

In fact, recently Biden even said something to the effect of, "I must commend Trump on his Israel policy, I don't agree with him on alot of things, but that I must agree with him on" etc etc

It's pretty clear who controls things, but as I've said at the end of the day politics is essentially a trumped up (get it?) reality show and Trump is more entertaining.

And it's extremely entertaining watching people like you lie and twist the truth and mislead, when I actually know more information and can see you doing it, just like the media does. For what end? For you it's just to look smart ITT, sadly. At least the media gets paid to do it.

Zplusz with the only sensible reply on here.

If the NY Post story is accurate, the FBI has a copy of the original water-damaged laptop. Its contents should be able to be authenticized. The FBI has yet to comment. Perhaps the original plan was for the Trump campaign to time this release to get the FBI to release a statement just prior to election day as they did in 2016 but with so much early voting it won't matter which is classic Trump.

-175. Buy the dip or wait for the drip?

2016 - Why polls were wrong a quick summary.

1. The polls didn't account for education at a state-level. People with college degrees were more likely to take surveys than people without, and the polls skewed towards people with college degrees who voted for Clinton. Education level didn't matter in previous elections, (thats why some pollsters didnt even bother asking that question), but it did a lot in 2016. Clinton won college-educated voters by 25% in 2016, Obama by 4% in 2012.

2. Trump won undecideds by over 10% in 2016. And there were a lot of undecideds. it gave Trump around a 2% boost.
3. Turnout for Trump voters was higher than expected.

The polls were pretty good in the 2018 midterms. Turnout was the highest in over a century, from 36% in 2014 to 50%+ in 2018. That 40% jump is staggering. Feel free to disregard the midterm elections.

I believe polls are the best forecasting method we have. Yes they have missed in the past, and yes they may miss again in the future. If Trump wins this time around, I will gladly admit I am wrong. Then I will look at why the polls were incorrect and try to learn from them.

Another good predictor on election success is fundraising dollars, and Biden has been crushing Trump in the past two months. (Yes Clinton beat Trump in 2016, but lost the election)

And let's be honest, there are very few things that will change how people will vote in this upcoming election. Biden could fall asleep at the wheel and drive his campaign bus into a crowd of people, and hes still going to win california by over 10 points.

If you think Trump will win, go on 270towin.com and build your map.

If you don't see Trump winning being within margin of error in 2016 and Trump winning not being within margin of error in 2020 being more crucial to this election than some absurd tabloid story about a laptop that the FBI has already been investigating for a year without finding anything, I don't know what to say.

The real story of this election betting-wise isn't even the outcome. The story is that there's a historically huge disrepancy in odds, the kind of thing that bettors see wet dreams of, and instead of putting money on the very obvious +EV option, people are discussing wet laptops and all kinds of irrelevant **** and trying to justify the dumbest bet they have ever made without seeing the forest from the trees.

Forest:
Trump's odds right now are +174 (indicating over 36% chance)
His chances according to 538 are 12% (+733)
His chances according to purely just polling data are ~4% (+2400)

Trees:
Blind computer repairman, Hunter Biden, Rudy Giuliani, crack, Ukraine, China, Burisma, Steve Bannon, New York Post, Qanon, Antifa, fake news media, left-wing bias, yadda yadda

Yet all people seem to care about is these random trees when there's a hugeass forest asking you to dive in and enjoy free EV because the margin of error is HUGE. The polls can be so incredibly wrong this year and Biden will still win handily. The polls being wrong and betting on Biden being +++++++++++++EV aren't mutually exclusive, Burisma having an effect on the election and Biden still winning aren't mutually exclusive. Nate Silver being wrong and Biden still winning aren't mutually exclusive. The "but 2016! the polls are wrong!" bros being right about almost everything yet Biden still winning aren't mutually exclusive. I don't know how many more times I can stomach having to tell you these things.

As a side note, my least favorite part about all this is that if Trump wins (which can happen! His chances are still probably better than me hitting 3x green traffic lights in a row, which happens to me every day), I'll have to listen to endless blabbings about Trump bettors being "right" when they made an idiotic -EV bet and happened to hit their backdoor gutshot or whatever. And if Biden wins, I can't even rub it in because all there's left to say is "well, we'll never know what the true probablities were, but I'm happy to have run above EV here because Trump's chances sure weren't 0"

Oh well 538 and polling data must be right. The betting markets are usually wrong anyways, there's only tons of volume forming those markets. You/538/polls > all the people willing to wager money in the world!

Congrats I think we can lock this thread up, Biden's already won, Trump's drawing dead as has been stated

This election is not political for me. One side is talking about keeping babies alive at all costs, the other side wants to kill as many as they possibly can and let 8 yr olds chop their dick off. This is a spiritual war, and people like you blinded by the media are part of the problem.

lol

Buying the dip because Trump told me to

The funniest part of 2016 retconning is that data and logic performed pretty reasonably (at least if you were looking right before the election). Like in order to bet on Hillary at close, you really were trusting a narrative moreso than following the data. 538 laid out the exact scenario of how Trump could win and gave him a very non-trivial chance. There were many people who bet on Hillary because "there was no way someone like Trump could win," but the data very much said that it was a possibility.

But the lesson that people have learned is that they should ignore the data and trust their stories and narratives more! It's been almost 4 years of people doing this (mostly people who lucked their way into a maybe +EV bet on trump in 2016) and losing horribly on almost every politics event since then. Sadly, the bonanza may soon be ending if Biden wins (as seems very likely).

otoh we have but his emails

otoh we have trump's worst issue flaring up in the most important region of the country right before election day

Is this you zplusz?

Where is the lie?

I'd be genuinely curious to hear arguments about why Trump wins this election. You know, stuff that's based on some kind of actual data, and not just "but I feel like it'll happen".

Like, okay, let's accept "Burisma will blow up in Biden's face as happened with Hillary's emails" as one theory. I'm not very convinced about it, but let's say that could happen. Okay. Is that your *only* theory though? Because if it is, you're screwed.

Anything else? Since zplusz you apparently agree with the tweet above, what is this other "available data"? Can you please link me to it so that I can save my $$$ and still hedge my bets at a solid profit? So far all I'm hearing is "because Nate Silver was wrong and I'm better at analyzing data than people who do it for a living but I refuse to explain my methods". Btw, Silver's analysis beat the betting markets at a ~100% ROI in the election last time. Literally all you had to do was open 538, see him giving Trump just shy of 30% on election day, check his odds, oh cool +500, and you were printing money. Now it's a similar disrepancy in the other direction, but all of a sudden he's wrong, but no one's capable of explaining why without including dead babies and Hunter Biden's laptops in the explanation. I think he's almost certainly at least a little bit wrong, and there's a chance he might even be wrong big time, but I've yet to hear a single plausible explanation why that would be.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...-cases-deaths/

you could argue trump has some inherent advantage with late breaking voters. problem is biden is >50% in states that equal 273 ev (gets rust belt, but not nevada), so if the polls are right and trump gets every undecided and 3rd party voter, he still loses.

you basically have to think the polls are more "wrong" than they were in 2016, by a factor of like 2 or 3

Yeah, this is what I've based most of my betting decisions on. In 2016 in swing state x Hillary was leading like 41-36 so there was a lot of room for Trump to get past her. Even Hillary despite a very successful last second tarnishing campaign and an FBI investigation didn't actually *lose* any votes, she even added to her tally in many states that she ended up losing, Trump just got the late breaking voters in his favor. But even if Trump gets every single late breaking voter again, how do you win the state when the other guy already has 51%+?

I have yet to hear a single explanation to this third grader math problem. The only kinda halfway semi-plausible one is the theory about shy Trump voters. It's a theory I believe in (in terms of it being a thing). But the problem is that in any poll you can also vote empty. I find it super hard to believe that hordes of shy Trump voters would click Biden when they could just click empty / undecided etc if they wanted to conceal their vote. I don't know about you guys, but when I read stuff by Trump fanbois anywhere, I'd say them naming Biden as their candidate is close to a cardinal sin. No chance millions of them all over the country are doing that when they could just say they don't know yet.

Furthermore, a very large portion of these polls are made using robot callers, online quizzes etc, which makes it much less likely the person won't reveal their true opinion, or at least that they'd be clicking the opposite. I absolutely believe that if you call some random Trump voter in a small village in rural Massachusetts that's 98% democrat he might not say to a live caller that he votes Trump. But that's still pretty damn far from there being an effect over 1000s of polls all over the country having the same phenomena, even in deep red states where Trump's been losing ground at a similar rate, and all these so-called shy voters choosing Biden instead of undecided.

To me, at best the shy Trump voter theory explains his low numbers in many states, but it doesn't explain Biden's high numbers at all. And of course there are also the Fox news / other very Trump-biased media polls, which show the exact same numbers.

So, as a conclusion, if a poll says 52-42 Trump, I have absolutely no problem believing the "real" numbers are actually 52-46 or whatever. But good look turning that into 52-53.

the map if the state polls are as "wrong" as they were in 2016



oops. just makes texas D and Ohio and Iowa R

Damnit can't edit this anymore, that was meant to say 52-42 Biden obviously

But keep thinking this is a historical betting opportunity! Lmao

There is no pandemic and I truly feel sorry for you that you live your life thinking there is. There must be fear, I imagine. I have no idea what it is like to feel fear. I only know the feeling of taking my enemy's life, watching the light fade from his eyes.

Metaphorically speaking, of course.