This is terrible for Trump's reelection prospects. 1) it eats up two weeks of campaign time that he desperately needs. 2) Guarantees the media focus on covid instead of Trump's strong points like the economy. 3) The spectacle of nearly a dozen prominent Republicans getting sick emphasizes that they can't keep America safe. How are they going to protect your family if they can't even protect themselves? Plus shows they've been wrong about masks, social distancing, etc this entire time.

Boris Johnson got a 4 point uptick in approval rating after he was diagnosed, but no improvement in horse-race polls. Johnson wasn't so closely identified with the anti-mask faction either. Bolsonaro's ratings went down.

what magic things was he going to do campaigning which are going to be more effective than getting very ill and recovering? that's such a great story for his base to rally around, and the far left just can't help themselves from sinking to his level and making themselves look classless. it's the perfect storm for a candidate who needed to shake things up

in 2-3 weeks time, if he recovers, the narrative will be "see, we told you it was just a flu. we all got sick. we're all better now. there are worse outcomes associated with closed schools, closed offices. evictions divorce domestic violence etc."

seems harsh. any speculation why?

there's wishcasting and then there's holidayinthesun posts

I'm glad you agree it's classless to make fun of a political opponent who has recently fallen ill.

https://metro.co.uk/video/2016-trump...ction-2261576/

COVID being a bigger issue is very unlikely to be good for Trump. He is consistently very underwater. And I can't see this story of how he got it by ignoring health advice, possibly covering it up and spreading it to many others, etc. playing well with the people who already disapprove of this handling of COVID.

Great analogies, guys. I love analogies, especially poker ones. I love how the word has "anal" in it, if that gives you an idea of how I really feel about them.

Anyways, you've both provided no evidence again other than "polls blah blah". I believe polls are way more off than you're saying. I guess we'll see.

Hint: the reason people might not wanna answer the truth in polls is cuz this is what happens when you're a trump supporter (note the increasingly violent ends)

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mag...r-biden-speech

https://komonews.com/news/local/patr...ter-08-30-2020

At that time it was just Asia and a very few central European countries that were pro-mask, pretty much nobody in the UK was.

The main political issues that early on were related to government incompetence not really a political divide in terms of scepticism. It may also have made a difference that his pregnant fiancee had it too.

Bolsonaro was a more hardline covid-sceptic, he announced he had it then took off his mask and continued talking to journalists, so that's not going to get him sympathy obv.

Trump is probably in the middle of those two. IMHO this moves the needle not in terms of votes but mostly in terms of probability due to it running the clock down.

https://www.theroot.com/proud-boy-tr...ack-1844988988

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/tru...-away-with-it/

https://www.complex.com/life/2020/09...ers-protesters

Do we really want to go down that road again dude ?
Grow up.

zplusz if you want Trump at anything close to evens i'll take Biden for however much you want with escrow etc

Obv you can get better prices elsewhere when the market unsuspends though, because you're wrong and Trump is an underdog right now because the data says so

Obviously it's not a lock with a month to go but to objectively state that Trump is a fav right now is wrong

Right lets discuss this rationally.

Are the "Shy Trump voter" or "Shy Biden voter" factors this year bigger or small than "Shy Trump voter" and "Shy Clinton voter" factors in 2016? If so why?

No big opinion myself but interested in what others say.

P.S. How do the numbers of undecideds compare to last cycle? Presumably that's where the shy voters would mostly be hiding.

stupid libs. after trump gets his 14 point coronavirus sympathy bump, it's going to be 2016 all over again

Undecideds don't matter here. This is an election where whoever brings out their base better, will win. 60% of eligible voters didn't vote in 2016. That number may go to 70% here.

Trump is way better at bringing out his die-hard base. Also Biden voters are terrified of viruses, won't even leave the home.

They're pushing hard for mail-in ballots for those people, but alot of people don't know how/won't make the effort.

As long as we're booking bets here, I'll take the over on turnout at 30%.

What shy Trump supporters? If anything, Trump supporters are the loudest. That demographic doesn't exist anymore.

You realize you have those percentages completely backwards?

60.2% of the voting eligible population voted in 2016..

What I'm saying is that significantly higher numbers of "shy Trump" or "shy Biden" voters - i.e. people unwilling to tell pollsters who they are going to vote for - would be likely to tell pollsters that they haven't decided. So if pollsters are reporting high numbers of undecideds then it's possible that it includes a lot of "shy" voters.


Is that not just availability bias though? When you think of a Trump supporter you think of someone you know who is "out" as one, not somebody who still isn't even sure yet if they're going to actually vote and is keeping quiet about it because you don't know about that person.

I would say though that while "shy" voters can have an impact on polls and lead to elections being called wrongly for the more "socially acceptable" option (UK parliament 1992 is a common example given) instead of the one that is actually most popular in the privacy of the voting booth, this is unlikely to happen in this case for the following reason:

If there has been a relative change in the "shyness" of Trump or Biden/Clinton voters during the 2016 - 2020 period, it would also correspond to a relative change in social acceptability of one side or the other, and if such an underlying change has happened then it would be accompanied by at least a bit of a change in votes too - and the 2016 election was so finely balanced that effectively if you predict any shifts like that in the mood of the population then you're also predicting the final result of the election.

My bad, you're def right. Still, my point stands.

40% who could vote didn't in 2016. That number could go to 45 or 50% imo this time.

The facts and logic crowd seem to be making election predictions by feel. Good luck

Minor UK-based betting exchange Smarkets is not suspended. Current spreads:

Biden 1.53 1.54
Trump 2.96 2.98
Pence 100 150
Harris 140 170

Brag:
I managed to get some money on Biden at various points in early and mid September for an average of 1.83 (-120).

Beat:
Deposits weren't instant so the line moved away from me a couple of times.

Variance:
Was worried a bit after Ginsberg passed away, but the debate and Covid made up for it.

I honestly wish Trump well. Bets are no action if either candidate passes away.

To add something constructive, most of the forecasts are done using polling data (with some fundamentals). Polls being inaccurate are a legitimate critique for the forecasts - so what you can do is to adjust the polls using you think are the correct numbers.

For example, if you think the polls overcount Biden voters (or miscount shy voters), you can adjust Biden's numbers by X percent, and if you think all the undecided voters will vote Republican, you can adjust the models by assigning 100% of those voters to Trump (compared to the 50-60% that most models currently do).

You can do all of the above at both a national and state-wide level to come up with your own forecast.

If you are lazy, you can just use www.270towin.com. One path to victory for Trump is to win Pennsylvania (in addition to AZ, OH, NC, GA, FL).

BOL

A humbling Herman Cain/coronavirus timeline:

6/24: Attends Trump rally, maskless

7/2: Tests positive for Covid-19

7/10: Says he’s improving

7/15: Says his doctors seem happy

7/27: Says he’s really getting better

7/30: Dies

7/31: Ghost tweets that COVID was no big deal.

There's a real good chance Trump takes a turn for the worse later this week. Dexamethasone turns off your immune system, so you suddenly feel great, but of course that comes at a cost later.

There is a video on Twitter where he appears to be gasping for air as he poses for photos. This is still a serious situation.

Do you lot genuinely believe Trump might die of Covid? lol.