Rightly or wrongly, people are attaching huge significance to priors based mostly on the results of 2016 (and a little bit of 2012/2008/2004).

IMO this is foolish and produces a lot of mispricings across the map. Better to use demographic priors and a little bit of past data from a variety of past elections (not just presidential).

In general the state odds for biden are worse bets than biden to win election, but Arizona is potentially one of the exceptions.

Idk why people would bet Biden az over Biden win, would be tough to win az but lose the election and the price isn't much better for Biden as

If biden wins az and mi he's at 259 wi gets him to a tie or pa or FL or NC etc gets him to a win and any other EVs on top of wi get the win even the ne or me district

The tipping point is pa or Wi usually Biden would need to underperform the white vote and cuban vote and overperform the other Hispanic vote to win as lose FL wi pa or something to win az but lose the election

I mean it's definitely more possible than Biden winning FL but losing the election but it doesn't seem super likely he wins az but loses

Well, IMO most of the Trump's paths require a 2016 like polling error in the upper midwest. Because otherwise he's cooked. Arizona is notable in that democrats actually have slightly outperformed their polling the last few cycles. It also might be relevant that Trump seems to be more or less giving up on it and going all in on the upper midwest.

Of the paths for a close election that trump wins, I like the MI + AZ flip, trump holds WI + PA + FL the best. Or alternatively MI + AZ + WI flip and NE-2 doesn't which would lead to a 269-269 tie (that trump would win in the House). Close wins for biden could go through AZ+MI+WI+NE2, WI+PA+MI, or FL+1 other. I think a close win for Trump is more likely than a close win for Biden and the close Biden win permutations that go through AZ are not that unlikely.

I think overall I prefer biden election at current prices, but it's not totally unjustifiable to prefer AZ. I have a small % of my biden position on AZ (at -120) as a bit of a diversifier.

They basically don't require just a polling error, they require a polling error several times the size of last cycle AND for the error to be in Trump's favour

Of course if the polling changes things could change but Trump is running out of time to get within the margin of error

A bigger concern than Trump losing a fair election imo is it's close enough that he manages to either outright cheat through compromising the postal voting or in a worse case voting machines but the latter is unlikely and there's no evidence he's attempting it, whereas with postal vote it's clear he's attempting to discredit postal votes and deny their ability to be returned and counted. A major concern is that he tries to say all postal votes are invalid and manages to get a 6-3 supreme court, Dems need to take all steps necessary to ensure Barrett isn't confirmed before the election because Roberts will likely uphold the legitimacy of the supreme court, but if there are five partisan hacks on the court and he's a sixth leaning conservative swing vote, the swing vote becomes someone like Gorsuch probably and there is no guarantee that the rule of law will be upheld although I would hope Gorsuch isn't beholden to Trump and upholds the law you never know. I can't imagine the election ends up in the hands of the supreme court unless it's close after postals, but you just know Trump is going to declare victory early on election night before the masssively D-leaning postal vote is in when early returns show him leading off the back of the R-leaning in person vote due to Dems taking Covid more seriously than Republicans etc and being much more likely to postal vote.

For what its worth I put tracking on my postal vote from Australia (i'm a FL voter living abroad in Aus atm), got confirmation today that it had landed in the US, will follow through to ensure it's counted if need be (i'll be checking with the supervisor of elections staff well before election day to ensure they received it etc), if I don't experience any delays or issues i'll probably be a bit more satisfied that it'll be a fair-ish election given i'm a Registered Dem in a swing state with a Republican governor and a Republican supervisor of elections in my district

I do think Biden is back to about 65% or so having run out some of the clock from 60ish a couple weeks back, although I think the odds of a massive cluster**** where Trump declares voter fraud without evidence (or over like 17 votes or whatever) and claims all postal votes should be invalidated because he was leading on election day and 'Dem postal vote fraud' cheated him with no proof etc and we wind up going to the Supreme Court somehow if it's at all close and that's a very worrying sign

If Trump has to be dragged kicking and screaming from office we might see some domestic terrorism from the MAGA crew especially if he's refused to concede

The debates are probably Trump's last chance to gain momentum and stupidly they spent all year saying Biden is senile and can't put a sentence together which means Biden's expectations for the debate are super low, so if he shows up and speaks coherently and doesnt make any enormous gaffes that's pretty much all it takes for the debates to be a 'win' for Biden in that nobodys mind will be changed from where it is now, Dems will think Biden won the debate, Reps will think Trump did and independents will likely continue to lean in whatever direction they were beforehand since so few peoples minds aren't made up on Trump, the only way he can win is if the alternative is even less acceptable to independents or if turnout is historically low

The debates are huge for Trump. He has to perform well.
But a lot of early voting has already happened in a lot of states. And a lot of mail in ballots have already been mailed.
Trump actually not leaving office if he loses seems far fetched. At least, he'd need the support of the Republican Senate for him to pull off anything like that. I maybe have a big imagination, but I can picture right now in my mind the wheeling and dealing going on behind closed doors between McConnell and Shumer and Pelosi to assure a unified message in case Trump does lose and go crazy. He's probably also trying to get assurance that he'll not be prosecuted if he agrees to leave orderly if he loses. Probably one of the reasons for this whole show.

A lot of it is state charges in NY for tax evasion etc so there's not much the federal govt can do, Presidents can only pardon federal crimes

The Republican senate will fall in line behind whatever Trump does, although they will lose control of the senate a high % of the time when Biden wins given they need a net gain of 3, Alabama means 4, but they have AZ and CO senate seats locked and ME looks very good and so does NC at the moment Cunningham's been polling very well for a while - then IA GA MT are competitive too. I'd say the median outcome when Biden wins in the Senate seats is a gain of about D+4 which gets them to a majority with one spare, obv when Trump wins it'll be more like D+1 or so (I think the Dems still win CO and AZ no matter what for Senate, but seats like NC and ME will likely go to whoever wins the Presidency then stuff like IA MT and maybe GA go blue if Biden wins by a decent margin)

I feel like Trump has set the bar so high for the debates, anything other than a slaughter or Biden having a stroke = a win for sleepy dementia Joe.

Its like when Biden went 1v1 w/ Bernie and all the libs were blown away he could speak in clear sentences and offer semi-persuasive arguments.



I really wonder how many votes get thrown out because of the double envelope ruling in PA.

That mail in vote ruling is ridiculous in PA, the intention of the voter obviously needs to be first and foremost it's undemocratic even

Hopefully only costs the Dems 50k votes or so, Dems should 100% be running ads in PA on how to postal vote correctly explaining the envelope situation etc

Pretty nasty that the Ds likely lose 0.5-1% of the vote upfront due to the stupid postal voting, I mean in FL i can fax my ballot back to the supervisor of elections if I want, with a disclaimer I have waived my right to a secret ballot

Obviously someone returning their ballot in PA wants it counted and if they have one envelope instead of two what does it matter if they choose to waive that privacy pretty ridiculous

I actually quite like Bloomberg spending his money in FL and paying felons fines so they can vote etc, FL is one of the many nice insurance policies if WI/PA go badly for the D side, I can't really see any way they lose Michigan and win the election but they've polled well there consistently

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...?ocid=msedgntp

I found this article interesting in that it must be a very accurate metric of how people intend to vote in Wisconsin and Michigan.
I guess the election it seems is going to be decided in Pennsylvania.

Edit: unless of course Biden manages to win Florida. Which I'm giving to Trump.

So Trump's tax returns just leaked and he's either super broke or has committed tax fraud one or the other

Trump's drifted from 2.22 to 2.32 or so since I last checked

Fake news. His taxes are under audit. They have been for a very long time. That's why he won't release them.
He's a maga good business man, everyone knows that Swoop, jees

Get this decimal nonsense out of here

+122 to +132

Next few weeks are critical for trump if he doesn't get within the margin of error and quickly he's in trouble if the election is fair

Have you checked out The Economist's as well?

https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president

They go into quite a bit of detail under "How this works" on methodology.

Would I be able to play BetCRIS if I were physically in Canada or Mexico when wagering and when cashing out?

Don't want to risk not getting paid out.

I'd imagine asking their support directly would yield the most accurate answer

i don't understand your exact question, but CRIS support are one of the worst in the business so they definitely won't be able to help you.

in short, don't log in from a us ip. make sure you have a proof of address for mexico or canada which is within about 3 months. you'll also need a working phone number for one of those countries to make payouts.

Perhaps I'm missing something, but on the assumption that you're American, is there a reason you are unable/unwilling to simply play at Bookmaker?

Tactically tonight was a small victory for Biden, strategically it was huge. Polls say Biden won, slightly. https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/cbs...te-2020-09-29/
But mainly he just denied Trump any opportunity to shift the race. If the polling were reversed and Trump was up 8 points, grinding the debate into unwatchable garbage might be a decent strategy to run out the clock. He's not, so this was like running up the middle on 3rd and 8 while down a touchdown with 2 minutes left.

second debate is town hall style, which should work well for biden.

which is why trump really needed to draw blood on this one to start the narrative that biden isn't up for the job. he failed and probably fewer people turn in for rounds 2 and 3.

this + slow drip of nytimes tax story, and i'm quite confident biden will have a 5-9 pt lead in polls headed into election.

“Ninety-two percent of Democrats who watched say he won, compared to 82% of Republicans who say Trump won. Thirteen percent of Republicans called the debate a draw, although independents gave Trump the edge.”

Interesting that independents gave trump the edge. I think he did a good job pushing back on Biden’s claim that he’s at fault for the # of covid deaths by saying there would be more under him. Trump pointing out that obama/Biden’s economic recovery was the slowest in US history was also a great talking point that should have been said leading up to the debate at least 1,000 times. He also did a good job saying Obama/Biden inherited an economy that was ready to take off - his quote was something like all you had to do was turn the lights on and businesses were ready to go. Trump also interrupted too much and was his less than presidential self as expected.

Biden seemed lost a few times, but less than expected. He did a good job ducking some economic questions and sticking to healthcare and covid. His answer to why trump shouldn’t nominate a Supreme Court nominee was terrible at best. Calling the president a clown twice seems to go against his MO of being the presidential Candidate.

Trump up to +160ish again now it seems the first debate clearly goes to Biden according to the market

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...-national-poll

"Hold, hold, don't pair the River!"
Nepeeme2008 sweating the river, mumbling to himself that his straight holds up in a monster 3 way pot. MHWG.

BuT tHe PoLlS wErE wRoNg iN 2016

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016...p%20victory%29.

Hey, sometimes Aces do get cracked!