One more question, just ran out of time to edit my previous post. There are some wonky euro bookies offering bets such as "On what day will the winner be announced"? I have a strong suspicion that they probably aren't offering sharp lines, but I don't know what a realistic guesstimate here would be either, and I haven't bothered to try to figure it out since you can probably only get in a couple of hundo anyway. But just in general, do we think that all the mail votes and/or Trump shenanigans might delay the announcement?

Yes, it's unlikely they'll announce a winner on election night unless it's a landslide one way or the other and even if it's a Biden landslide that likely won't show until most of the postals are in, although Fox OANN etc might try and call the election for Trump if he's ahead even if the outstanding postal votes don't support that call etc

Re Nevada idk but the state is a few points bluer than the tipping point now, so if Trump is winning Nevada he's almost certainly been reelected

Jon Ralston on twitter is your guy to follow on twitter for Nevada polling/political news etc if you're looking at props specific to Nevada

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports

I might book it depending what price you want, what price are you after and terms? I assume a zoom/virtual debate still counts as a debate and you just want no debates at all, or do you want no in person debates or what? What price do you want?

Second Jon Ralston as the guy who knows everything about Nevada polling and politics. 538 has Biden about 80% to win NV, which feels about right.

On the What Day Will the Winner Be Announced, I'd be cautious unless they rigorously define "announce". What if one source calls a winner and others don't? PredictIt is doing it right, it has a market for the day that CNN and Fox News both declare the same person president.

It could be the next day, but if it's close it could be months. How long did it take Iowa to get a final number for its caucus?

Itll depend if its close or not but its unlikely to be official for days i'd say given the high number of postal ballots plus the potential that Trump will dispute the results/try and take it to the supreme court and so on or simply say it was rigged and refuse to leave office and so on

Looks like it moved back to Biden by 10-12c again today, I assume market is guessing Trump's comments on soldiers being suckers and losers and all that might cost him a couple percent among military voters/military families as it obviously should

It should, but will a lot of people believe he said it?

He's already publicly said something pretty close about POWs in the context of Senator McCain and it didn't seem to move the needle at all.

Trump won't lose his hardcore supporters, as they simply don't believe the media anymore, but Biden's poll numbers have improved in the latest September polls.
I guess it's the independent and undecided voters that this story influences the most.
This is speculation on my part, but I think the big difference with McCain and now is that McCain was viewed as more of a personal thing between Trump and McCain.
This is different.

I have a lot more wagers on the election than I realized. The money has been sitting for so long. I have a total of 430 on 5dimes alone, and now it's shutting down. Darn it. I know it's peanuts for you guys.
I got
Democrat to win Minnesota -270
Republican to win Georgia -245
Biden to win General +160!
Now all for nothing.
Sad face.

That sucks about 5Dimes, man. Are they voiding the futures bets or what?

I guess. I have, along with everyone else, to somehow nullify my bets and close my account. There's a separate thread for this. If someone who knows the process and wants to post there, or here, with some appreciated guidance. I haven't looked into it yet as to what steps to take.

Hi,

I would like to bet a decent amount on the upcoming election but I'm limited by my country. What would be my best option as a German, French or Swiss resident ?

By the way, you guys in the US are so lucky to have Predictit: anticipating media narratives to buy low and sell high must be so much fun, compared to simply placing bets.

I assume Betfair if it's in your market or could try pokershares if not

IANAL but I think I remember that betting on the outcome of elections may be illegal in Germany - not sure if that's still the case or if it only applies to their own elections. I'd check first though.

For other countries I think most or all online bookies are running books. For example Unibet (where I play poker) is. It's just a question of how much they'll let you put on.

I tend to agree Betfair exchange (not Betfair sportbook) is a better place to gamble on politics if you can, as you can also enter and exit positions and you only pay vig on your net profits (whereas at sport books the vig is built into the pricing of individual bets).

The fact that degens are usually gamblers, directly correlates to fact that degens are usually libtards too. Degen, gambling, and libtard views go hand in hand on average. I'm happy though, makes for better odds for Trump. Same thing in 2016.

MAGA: the libs want to steal your online poker
also MAGA: the libs are degens

lol buddy and what did the polls say in 2016??? You have to learn from history in order to succeed in the future.

the polls that were off by 1% and have been tinkered with since?

nothing like $750 max bet per market with 15% taken out by the time you get paid!

haha another dummy who doesn't know what he's talking about

Unfortunately betfair exhange is blocked in all 3 countries I could play from. I'll look into the other options, though. Thanks for the help.

Any recommendations for US facing sportsbooks that offer fairly high limits and decent odds on longshot bets for politics? Only one I'm really aware of is bookmaker and its hit or miss how their lines compare to the market or betfair (occasionally actually better than betfair exchange, sometimes much worse).

Betfair exchange itself would be ideal with the volume on there, but I assume there's no good/safe way for US gamblers to access it. Maybe if I posted odds -10% from betfair exchange price to a site like fairlay some arbitrager might scalp it and at least I could get the bet? But might be just as likely my bets would sit there for days and days with no action. 10% would be better than the 25-30% or so I'd probably lose to a bookie's lines.

I just took Kamala Harris 300/1 to be president. Does this have value? What does 538 say?

The Kamala bets are the biggest trap bets of the election lol

Edit: Assuming that's her becoming the *next* president. I'd certainly take a 300/1 bet on her becoming president at some point in her life or even at some point during Biden's potential presidency. But in order for her to be elected in November, Biden would have to basically die, and then she would still have to beat Trump.

DNRS: What odds do you have on Biden dying? You want it to be 1 in 160 or so probably if you're getting 300/1 assuming Harris will have about the same odds to win that Biden would

Maybe more like Biden to die 1 in 100-120 times, because Harris is slightly less likely to win than Biden if it's pre-election probably plus there's a very slim chance the Dems nominate someone other than Harris if it were to happen


My gut instinct is it's probably narrowly -EV but with Biden's age close enough to neutral not to be too bad. He is in pretty good health for late 70s though imo, I think Biden is a fav to outlive Trump at evens if I had to pick one even though Biden is a few years older, both are in their 70s and Trump is overweight etc

I'd probably set Bidens line at early 90s and Trumps as mid to late 80s or so for expected lifespan given their current ages etc