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Old 09-18-2019, 05:48 AM   #151
lvr
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

It's just so bizarre that so many white people hate themselves

Only in western countries do people bend over backwards to please minorities
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Old 09-18-2019, 11:15 AM   #152
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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The Democratic ticket will 100% have some kind of intersectional credibility. There is no way that the Dems put up to older straight white men.
Eh... If you're Joe Biden, and you've won the nomination, you've won it by ignoring the Woke Left. And everybody knows you run left in the primaries and center in the general. So why would you turn left then? You don't need to energize your base, they'll be pissed enough at Trump.

I mean, if there's someone out there who has the requisite intersectional credibility who is also going to be the best VP candidate, then sure, pick them. I don't know who that person would be. Maybe Klobuchar? Kyrsten Sinema? Tammy Duckworth? Honestly there aren't that many to choose from.

Like I said, Biden's options are wide open and it's hard to even come up with a top 5. Just pushing back on the idea he can't choose a white guy.
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Old 09-18-2019, 04:09 PM   #153
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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It's just so bizarre that so many white people hate themselves

Only in western countries do people bend over backwards to please minorities
We finally agree on something.

"Intersectional credibility" lol. I cant wait to throw that phrase into some debates.

The left really does see itself as some messiah savior. I find that lefties/"academics" are actually the sneaky most racist people in the country. Every problem that the poor, downtrodden minorities have is because of white people, and the only thing that can fix it are more white people with more government telling people what to do and how to behave.
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Old 09-18-2019, 04:36 PM   #154
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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lol is "intersectional credibility" a bizarre way of saying "not white male"?
Whenever I hear the word "intersectionality," I think of the time Bo called my ex-girlfriend's cat a ****** ****** in August 2012. 2p2's censor will probably block that out, but I think you were still in the chat at that time Poogs, and perhaps you will remember it. It stands out in my memory, because until then, I had never heard those two words together, and especially not in regards to that little cat.

I haven't seen that cat in six years, and I now live in a place where both ******s and ******s are rare enough that a double whammy may not exist for hundreds of miles. Thus, I have no reason to think of those two words together. The term now serves only as a useful mnemonic to remember made-up liberal buzzwords. Ironically, by trying to stop wrongthink, they are actually encouraging it. What a time to be alive.
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Old 09-18-2019, 06:19 PM   #155
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Like I said, Biden's options are wide open and it's hard to even come up with a top 5. Just pushing back on the idea he can't choose a white guy.
I think you're making some good points, I'll think about it some more.
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Old 09-19-2019, 09:14 AM   #156
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Im obsessed with intersectional credibility
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Old 09-19-2019, 09:39 AM   #157
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread




this pretty much sums up society at the moment

I rarely ever meet a person who believes in all this bs yet we are still bombarded with this madness every single day

only weirdos go to protests
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Old 09-19-2019, 12:04 PM   #158
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Its all because of that dang twitter. This all started really happening right around the time twitter got big. Im not looking it up but something like 80% of all tweets are made up by 20% of its users...something like that. Its a tiny, SUPER loud group of very angry, sad and lonely people who everyone just started listening to all of a sudden. Its so weird being kind of in the middle and seeing the country get more and more polarized every day. I always think people think "THIS time in history is crazy!!" all the time, but it really does seem like we're off the tracks here. Who knows, maybe it just always feels like that.
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Old 09-19-2019, 07:51 PM   #159
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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this pretty much sums up society at the moment

I rarely ever meet a person who believes in all this bs yet we are still bombarded with this madness every single day
I do agree it's not as prevalent as mainstream media might have you believe but it's definitely a strong cohort of the Democratic party. They're the loudest, but they're also the most influential. The establishment is terrified of getting in the Woke Left's crosshairs. Just look at a few of these interviews on college campuses, the mindset has infiltrated society.

It's going to come to a head by the time the election comes around.
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Old 09-20-2019, 03:58 AM   #160
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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this pretty much sums up society at the moment

I rarely ever meet a person who believes in all this bs yet we are still bombarded with this madness every single day

only weirdos go to protests
I meet these people all the time—people who go to protests, work for some non-profit that is furthering some left-wing cause, would never associate with someone who voted for Trump. I won't try to guess what your social circle or business environment looks like, but I imagine it isn't particularly young nor in a liberal city. Fire up a dating ap and set it to a liberal city and set the age range to 18–30, and I think you'll be overwhelmed by how effusively 'anti-racist' and SJW-y that population is.
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Old 09-21-2019, 10:39 AM   #161
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Old 09-21-2019, 01:57 PM   #162
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Biden's problems only continue to accumulate. It seems like Warren is getting the nod, problem is Biden has the Black vote and she doesn't.
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Old 09-21-2019, 10:08 PM   #163
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

The optics of the story are worse for Trump than Biden; it's a repeat of 'Trump asks foreign government to help him get elected'

I've donated to Yang and Warren so far this cycle personally, but this isn't going to hurt Biden. Biden being terrible at running for President is what will hurt Biden in the long term. I'm part of the Democratic base (I think) or at least the young/white/liberal wing of it, and I like Biden a lot as a human being but not at all as a politician or on policy. I think that's pretty widely held sentiment, although obv Biden will be very popular with the boomer Dems and the enlightened centrist types etc the main things he has going for him are Obama nostalgia and 'electability' and if Warren or someone else wins both Iowa and New Hampshire which are both swing states that may dent the electability argument

I've become convinced Warren is going to be the nominee, and i've stopped thinking Yang is a fade at 10%, 10 seems fairish now since he's got some upward momentum - it'll almost always be too little too late, but still.

I didn't see Kamala's career politician/prosecutor stuff hurting her as much as it has, but if she's toast Booker may be worth a look at 3ish to sell when he gets some of the black vote if she really is toast. Between the two black candidates only trading at 8% that seems low, one of the two of them surely recovers a bunch of support if Biden stumbles even if neither winds up as the nominee

Still not getting involved $ wise at this point; outside of the obvious like fading Hillary at 5% as she's never going to run this cycle and stuff like Comey to not be indicted I think the best bet is probably Trump not to be reelected he's going to get washed away by a sea of high turnout unless the Republican party has outright captured the voting machines in key states and while there are certainly shenanigans going on and voter suppression etc i'm not sure that can overcome a ~70% level turnout election, i'm not sure anything can with changing demographics, Trump can only win by drastically depressing turnout to Hillary-ish levels (he'll come close to repeating his 2016 vote but can't build on it, and D turnout was super low for Clinton compared to Obama) or by outright compromising enough voting machines and i'm not sure either is likely to happen.

Also, this thread should be renamed 'young white libertarian leaning men debate what the overwhelmingly female and non white Democratic base wants in a candidate'
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Old 09-22-2019, 08:34 AM   #164
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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I think the best bet is probably Trump not to be reelected he's going to get washed away by a sea of high turnout unless the Republican party has outright captured the voting machines in key states and while there are certainly shenanigans going on and voter suppression etc i'm not sure that can overcome a ~70% level turnout election, i'm not sure anything can with changing demographics, Trump can only win by drastically depressing turnout to Hillary-ish levels (he'll come close to repeating his 2016 vote but can't build on it, and D turnout was super low for Clinton compared to Obama) or by outright compromising enough voting machines and i'm not sure either is likely to happen.
I keep seeing it repeated everywhere that Dems are going to have a high turnout, but nobody has provided a compelling reason why. I said the same in an earlier post: If you thought a Trump victory would bring the apocalypse in 2016, and that was not enough to motivate you to vote then, why would you vote in 2020, after seeing that he did win, and the world did not collapse?

You could make the claim that Hillary didn't energise her base to support her, but if the options are Warren or Biden, I don't think there is going to be a big change in that area. Warren is dull and has no charisma, Biden is likable like your friend's grandfather who everyone has something nice to say about, but you wouldn't trust him to make you a coffee without burning himself. I don't think many truly think he would be a good president, or even a competent president. So I don't think either of those candidates would inspire more passion than Hillary.
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Old 09-22-2019, 10:17 AM   #165
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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I keep seeing it repeated everywhere that Dems are going to have a high turnout, but nobody has provided a compelling reason why. I said the same in an earlier post: If you thought a Trump victory would bring the apocalypse in 2016, and that was not enough to motivate you to vote then, why would you vote in 2020, after seeing that he did win, and the world did not collapse?




This is my thought too and why I think Trump is going to win again easily. Although I think everyone largely thinks about what they want to happen and works backward from there so take that for what its worth.
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Old 09-22-2019, 10:51 AM   #166
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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This is my thought too and why I think Trump is going to win again easily. Although I think everyone largely thinks about what they want to happen and works backward from there so take that for what its worth.
My thoughts as well. And lol swoop at this voter suppression nonsense. The Russians and voter suppression are the democratic whiny way of never admitting they were defeated fair and square. Always has to be another excuse. I live in GA where Abrams tried that excuse. Lol she lived in a state where it would always be an uphill battle to flip it her way.

Pretty much every eligible voter has an opinion about Trump and it's not changing no matter what he does. My girlfriend is black and listening to the brainwashed democratic hatred that her siblings all have for Trump is comical at times. Pretty sure every Republican and Democrat across the country has a mindset now where nothing anybody says or days will change their opinion about how they're voting come 2020. Running another woman, and one even more unlikable than Hillary seems like the worst plan imaginable for the dems. Hillary came across as smug and entitled to me. Warren to me comes across as just straight up nuts and weird, and also unlikable. I can't see her standing on a stage with Trump and just not looking like a fool. But that's just me. So dems are either going to hate 4 years of Trump that much, and get off their ass and go vote for anybody this time, or they'll sit at home and not like Warren just like they didn't like Hillary last time and Trump wins again, because I'd figure most people who voted Trump last time will be back out in full force again.

The biggest negative for Trump seems to be the rust belt states that he won last time. They all switched right bc of 8 years of Obama and what it did in their daily lives/jobs, and Hillary didn't campaign as hard as Trump did in those states. I imagine the next dem is gonna hit those states hard in campaigning. The auto industry lost jobs so far under Trump so maybe they'll just vote left no matter what at this point. Ohio is so far in the middle you never know what they're gonna do. I wouldn't be shocked if Michigan and Ohio both went back left. If Trump manages to have 2-4 of PA, OH, MI, WI flip on him then it becomes game on.
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Old 09-22-2019, 10:58 AM   #167
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Yea the voter suppression/russia stuff is embarrassing for the left. They always think theres some big evil wizard of oz out there pulling the strings. The reality is actually scarier...aint nobody in charge.
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Old 09-23-2019, 11:09 AM   #168
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Covered my Buttigieg short and shorted Warren here. For those following at home, that means I've locked in a 20% profit along with a freeroll on Biden and Buttigieg.

I just think Warren is the Howard Dean of this cycle. Plenty of red meat for the base, very popular with the type of folks who pay a lot of attention to politics, but ultimately Dems are going to worry that she's too far left to win. I mean, banning private insurance? Once there's a closer focus on her policies, the median Iowa Democrat is going to have some misgivings. In any case, the media always loves a new story, and fairly soon the story is going to switch from "Warren surges" to "Warren struggles in spotlight".

Buttigieg stands to benefit from both that and the gradual Biden swoon. Iowa polls have him solidly in fourth or even third ahead of Sanders. He's done a great job fundraising, so I expect he'll have enough staying power to be the moderate everyone consolidates to.
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Old 09-23-2019, 11:14 AM   #169
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

In other news, Likud did slightly worse on the most recent election than it did this spring. It looks like Netanyahu is unlikely to be prime minister (and may get deposed as leader of Likud). He'd really have to pull a rabbit out of a hat to manage to get immunity now. There is a pre-indictment hearing in October. Indictment odds have gone from 25% when I got in to 61% today, which I think is still low.
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Old 09-25-2019, 11:31 AM   #170
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Impeach markets are at 58%, which I think is about right, or maybe a little high. NYTimes has 206 House members in favor of an impeachment inquiry, with 218 needed, and that's just the inquiry. It might get there, but it's certainly not guaranteed.

I shorted Biden and went long Buttigieg at 7. I think the Ukraine thing ends up being bad for Biden -- it shines a spotlight on the fact that his hot mess of a son got a board seat on a corrupt Ukrainian gas company, and Biden/Obama pressed Ukraine to fire an anti-corruption prosecutor. Even if their story is true, that they wanted the prosecutor out because he was himself corrupt, the optics are still extremely bad.

Buttigieg has been moving up in the IA/NH polls for a while now, and he may get a boost as a fresh face among all this. Not planning to hold to expiry, necessarily, but I expect he'll trade up to 10 before this is all over.
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Old 09-25-2019, 01:19 PM   #171
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

The markets are implying that trump has a 58% chance of being impeached?
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Old 09-25-2019, 01:47 PM   #172
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Yes.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term
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Old 09-25-2019, 03:37 PM   #173
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I see. Still 80% to finish first term though
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Old 09-25-2019, 10:31 PM   #174
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Impeachment means it goes to senate not that he’s forced out of office.
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Old 09-25-2019, 11:56 PM   #175
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

this Ukraine issue is looking so bad for trump now lol..
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