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Old 08-19-2020, 08:56 PM   #1701
lvr
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT View Post
Donít blame me, blame the fake news media complex and the 1%. AOC GOAT.
it did happen thou

swoop literally posted your exact message

the lengths some of you clowns go to defend someone

bish had 60 seconds and ruined it
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Old 08-20-2020, 05:52 AM   #1702
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

lvr, you're doing the bad faith posting thing again

By all means if you want to call AOC a socialist or whatever because she favours leftist policy go nuts you don't need to make up lies about her

Claiming she refused to endorse Biden/endorsed Sanders at the convention to make a scene and trash Biden or sow disunity in the party is a lie, she was literally asked to second the Sanders nomination for president BY THE DNC because that is what happens at every convention where two or more candidates pass the delegate threshold before the winner is formally nominated, Sanders and Biden passed the delegate threshold, Biden won, and Sanders had to officially be put up as an option before they vote and nominate Biden officially BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT THE PROCESS ENTAILS and as a Sanders ally, AOC made sense to formally second his nomination during the convention. One of his other supporters could have done it, the DNC asked AOC to and she complied, that is all.
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Old 08-20-2020, 08:54 AM   #1703
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Swoop, you must realize by now that trying to talk like an adult to that guy is a waste.
What kind of person constantly calls people clowns. That's a mentally and culturally stunted individual. And he's not listening. You're wasting your breath on this guy.
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Old 08-20-2020, 12:10 PM   #1704
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
nobody respects me? yet I get messaged multiple times a week about accounts lol
ok then find one guy here willing to post in the thread that they respect you

just one is all it will take
Still waiting...
Too bad elves is gone, you guys would have gotten along.
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Old 08-20-2020, 12:11 PM   #1705
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Also, I'm sure Biden is super upset that the national media is drawing contrasts between him and AOC.
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Old 08-20-2020, 12:28 PM   #1706
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Haley's drifted out to 60 for VP guess Trump's told enough people he's sticking with Pence

If there was longer left I honestly wouldn't hate the Ivanka price at 500 as it's the sort of thing Trump would do if he could get away with it but it's too close to the R convention etc we'd have heard rumours etc by now, but if it was 6 months away or whatever that'd be tempting
Market seems to have settled back with Trump around the 2.46 mark and Biden around 1.76, ironically the exact price I got a few months ago although I did think there was a legitimate chance that he'd become an unbettable fav if Trump's support completely collapsed with his non core voters and short of the election being highly delegitimized I struggle to see a situation where Biden is much worse than a flip any time soon

Wouldn't be surprised if we see a holding pattern with Trump between +110 and +190 all the way between now and at least the first debate, would be shocked if he hits favouritism or +200 for a while although I do still think he should be closer to +200 than where he is now in terms of his actual chances of winning

I think i'm going back to just holding my small Biden/not Trump for a while until at least the debates

It's honestly insane to me that this election is even close. It's like the electorate just forgot that Trump knew Putin was paying the Taliban to kill american troops and did nothing about it. That would have been a multi year scandal for any regular President and yet he's had multiple scandals since so everyone's moved on

Last edited by SwoopAE; 08-20-2020 at 12:41 PM.
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Old 08-20-2020, 12:53 PM   #1707
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

It's not the issues guys, it's a culture war that's going on.
Americans are only focused, when they're focused at all, to things they want to believe.
Besides, Trump has done, and continues to do, a masterful job of convincing his people that everything is fake and phony and rigged. He's hypnotized and brainwashed half of America. Even Mason said that he doesn't think much of the New York Times!
The problem isn't defeating Trump in November. The problem is what do you do with all these people after, toss them over the wall? Not you Mason.
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Old 08-20-2020, 01:01 PM   #1708
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Wonder what true odds right now are between Biden and Trump
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Old 08-20-2020, 04:09 PM   #1709
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Also curious ^^

What do you think line is now swoop?
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Old 08-20-2020, 04:27 PM   #1710
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I think Trump is more live than people seem to think. I haven’t heard much about the fact that Dems are very COVID-avoidant and Repubs tend to not give a ****.
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Old 08-20-2020, 05:57 PM   #1711
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I think 538 is about right. Biden is a favorite but not a prohibitive one. In this crazy ****ing year, who knows what will happen in the next 3 months?

Also, watch for a Covid vaccine to get approved right before the election.
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Old 08-20-2020, 06:04 PM   #1712
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Thought Michelle Obama killed it. Pitch-perfect appeal. It's really a shame she won't run for president herself.
I agree the Dems should keep running women who slept their way into the White House.
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Old 08-20-2020, 08:06 PM   #1713
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

i think nate's model is a little too conservative given the unprecedented type of election we're going to have -- likely a referendum on coronavirus. people do not care about economic issues right now; it is at an unprecedented low in polling as the #1 issue facing the country (obv corona is #1). that's a huge, huge problem for the president.

biden probably 75-80%, and the 20-25 chance for trump would be tied to biden having a favorability meltdown where voters turn on biden, or VBM ****ery with the post office having a larger impact than anticipated.

simply put, biden is crushing hillary in the numbers he is hitting in the state polls. forget the margins for a second (those are strong as well!), and look at the raw number for biden in all of these states. as compared to 2016, there are very few undecideds, and biden is at or very near 50 in all of the states that matter.

for instance, biden has hit 50 in nearly every recent poll in florida. hillary NEVER hit 50 in a single poll in florida in 2016. doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that if biden hits 50 in a state, trump mathematically cannot win that state.

pretty sure trump has a larger chance of getting blown the **** out (i.e. biden hitting 400+ electoral votes) than he does of winning atm. that could change, but that is where things stand.
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Old 08-20-2020, 08:18 PM   #1714
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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I think Trump is more live than people seem to think. I haven’t heard much about the fact that Dems are very COVID-avoidant and Repubs tend to not give a ****.
democrats are averse to voting in person during a pandemic, true, but every single state that matters has vote by mail this year (texas is the only remotely important state that doesn't have it).

this works pretty strongly against republicans this year (usually a neutral impact) because trump's ramblings have made republicans very averse to voting by mail.

there's likely to be some attrition in dem vote share from VBM rejections, but it's unlikely to be very high (<1%), and could be mitigated and even overcome by the ease of VBM increasing dem turnout overall.
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Old 08-20-2020, 08:41 PM   #1715
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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I agree the Dems should keep running women who slept their way into the White House.
Stop insulting Melania like that, pleeeez
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Old 08-20-2020, 11:09 PM   #1716
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

looks like we getting rich off trump just like in 2016
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Old 08-20-2020, 11:12 PM   #1717
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Still waiting...
Too bad elves is gone, you guys would have gotten along.
lol i missed this but do you know how accounts work?

you guys are so out of the loop you don't even know

what's sad is both of you get people bigging you up in threads then those same people troll you with their alts in the same thread
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Old 08-21-2020, 08:31 AM   #1718
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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I agree the Dems should keep running women who slept their way into the White House.
This is harsh, but it's true that it reveals a problem if a large proportion of the women whom the public can imagine as presidents are former wives and daughters of male presidents.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:00 AM   #1719
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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This is harsh, but it's true that it reveals a problem if a large proportion of the women whom the public can imagine as presidents are former wives and daughters of male presidents.
This is factually true. Maybe the problem is that no one can get elected today without name recognition.
But back to Naj's statement. The premise of is totally false and stupid.
Michelle Obama is a lawyer and a Harvard graduate. Harris also has very strong credentials. Sorry Naj, but that was a pointless and ignorant post.

I guess people are upset right now. It's become apparent to me that Trump would have cruised to re-election if it wasn't for Covid. Of course, Covid-19 exposed Trump for what a hoax of a leader he is. Like an intervention from God. I think I'm starting to find religion again. Hallelujah.
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Old 08-21-2020, 03:35 PM   #1720
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Wouldn't be surprised if we see a holding pattern with Trump between +110 and +190 all the way between now and at least the first debate, would be shocked if he hits favouritism or +200 for a while although I do still think he should be closer to +200 than where he is now in terms of his actual chances of winning
I know you're talking about betting odds, and not his actual chances, but if you look at the mean and standard deviation implied by the Economist and 538 models then we're in a situation where even a 2 pt swing in Biden's favor would be a huge deal.

If you look at a blend of the two forecasts, a 2 pt swing would take Trump's chances from 20% down to 10%. And a 4 pt swing would put them at 5%. He's in a spot where he's very much in the race, but also one where he's walking along the edge of a cliff a little bit.

Edit - and I agree with whoever said the current chances are 75-80%. I'd be hard-pressed to come up with a good argument for a number much outside of that range.
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Old 08-21-2020, 07:07 PM   #1721
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Edit - and I agree with whoever said the current chances are 75-80%. I'd be hard-pressed to come up with a good argument for a number much outside of that range.
Most Repubs don't want to admit their political proclivities. Can have serious consequences these days.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:35 PM   #1722
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

grunching..

the people that analyze this stuff for a living have biden at much higher chance of winning than "markets"......

there is of course this huge proviso that 2016 results were surprising, trump is a wildcard and no one has any idea where voter turnover will come out at. voter suppression may be a huge issue.

OTOH, there are about 10 good reasons why this is NOT 2016.. no HRC and FBI investigation this time. HRC would have won if not for FBI getting back in the last week..... biden is not despised by many moderates/independents. in 2016, 2% of voters had positive opinion of trump and hillary. think about that. people didn't know that much about trump in 2016. he's some billionaire real estate mogul with a popular reality show. sure, he's a bit crazy but he'll probably be ok. of course, now people realize they elected a mentally deranged mean-spirited person. i can't imagine reasonable people wanting 4 more years of trump....... also, might have helped if HRC had put any effort whatsoever into michigan/wisconsin. she did put effort into pennsylvania. i don't think trump winning was that surprising. but winning wisconsin/michigan was.

anyway, we shall see...... but here are the consensus political expert numbers for the key states... joel pipkin tracks this.

wisconsin 81%D, +6% popular vote

pennsylvania 85%D, +6

michigan 89%D, +8

north carolina 63%D, +2

florida 56%D, +1.... this state is always very close. it will be key. trump and social security. trump's odds of winning are about 1% if he loses florida

arizona 65%D, +2.5

other states: mne2 59D, minnesota 91D, iowa56R, texas 56R, ga 56R, ohio 57R, ne2 59D, NH 89D, va 96D...........

the math before DJT/HRC was dems needed florida OR penn. republicans needed both..... of course, michigan/wisconsin went wonky. almost certain michigan comes back to D's in a reasonably fair election. wisky experts say "yes", but i'm not sure......

if michigan goes D, i think D's win with florida. or with pennsyvania and one other state.....

trump desparately needs florida.... bad news is he's upset just about major demographic group there including military..... good news is everyone seems to vote the same way no matter what.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:48 PM   #1723
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

honestly, major media sources dwelling on the differences between biden/kamala and AOC is the best thing that could happen to joe's campaign....... trump's campaign would love nothing more than AOC sticking her nose in this race.

all republicans/conservatives/moderates/independents and probably at least 40% of democrats do not want AOC guiding national policy..

look what happened when it was one progressive candidate against 1 main moderate candidate in the democratic primaries. biden won in a landslide... sanders did well with 4 significant opponents, as would AOC... one reasonable thought was consolidated, biden won easily.

what are progressives going to do if not vote D? vote trump? vote 3rd party (maybe?)?, not vote?........ colleges cancelled classes when trump won in 2016. i can't imagine the reaction being 20x this time..... progressives will have zero chance at setting the agenda in 20 years time if trump gets in for another term. supreme court is very old right now. alot of old dems there (going to check this)
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Old 08-22-2020, 12:46 PM   #1724
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

"People that analyze this stuff for a living". Ha!
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Old 08-22-2020, 02:38 PM   #1725
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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"People that analyze this stuff for a living". Ha!
of course, the alternative is to "shoot from the hip".... and these people were correct ONCE. probably wouldn't have been correct without FBI action in the last week in 2016.

analytic types have done very well in most US elections ex.2016.
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