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Old 08-10-2020, 07:53 PM   #1601
Nepeeme2008
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

RIP

So, who's next VP front-runner?
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Old 08-11-2020, 10:55 AM   #1602
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
So, who's next VP front-runner?
Rice.

Moved in from 2.6 (+160) to 2.2 (+120) in the last few minutes on Betfair.
Harris at 2.6.

Lots of volatility.

EDIT Harris now 2.7 (+170)
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Old 08-11-2020, 12:08 PM   #1603
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Rice 2.32 (+132, 11/8)
Harris 2.8 (+180, 9/5)

For a long time someone kept offering to lay Rice at 2.44 and got snap-called over and over - presumably arbing by backing her on another site.
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Old 08-11-2020, 12:48 PM   #1604
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

They are setting up Gavin Newsom (spelled correctly) to be the next president of the United States after Biden. Both he and Kamala Harris have speaking slots on the last night of the convention. Prime time slots. Some would say that this doesn't necessarily mean that Kamala Harris isn't being chosen, but it almost certainly does mean that. Gavin Newsom is a superstar politician who has the look of being the one that the baton is passed to in four years. When they speak you will see how laughable the idea that Kamala Harris would be given the VP spot, inevitably tracking towards the presidency. Gavin Newsom appears to be the chosen one for the future.

Pay attention to their speeches. Kamala Harris is a total joke. You guys will be scratching your heads wondering why you didn't load up against her. Anyone whom put multiple hours into Kamala Harris research would have to understand how ridiculous the whole Kamala Harris for VP narrative was. I easily put in over one hundred hours since the lockdown started in March. Way more, actually.

Though Rice appears to be the one, do not be shocked if Biden goes white, with either Warren or Whitmer or even a wild card. Just look at how the odds have changed over the last five months. The lazy media narrative basically dictated the odds from day to day, and week to week Most every horrible journalist always said that Kamala Harris was the most likely choice, showing no insight in their copy and paste click bait agenda driven articles, rarely asking whom was really the most qualified, while mainly glossing over Harris's huge deal killer non-starters.

Harris has, and always had, zero chance. I'm sure some of you are starting to figure this out. Many have suggested Kamala Harris would be great as Attorney General. She would be horrific, as she is a horrible person with horrible judgment, and would use her position to try to right her previous "Top Cop" wrongs. I have a feeling that democratic leadership is going to force Kamala Harris to earn her keep from here on out. She can continue to be a barking dog in the Senate. Lets see how interested and passionate she is with some of these newfound issues she has discovered once her presidential dreams are snuffed out and that carot is no longer dangling in front of her.

Last edited by Elves; 08-11-2020 at 01:02 PM.
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Old 08-11-2020, 12:50 PM   #1605
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Well the announcement is supposed to be this week. Presumably tomorrow.
Like I mentioned before, I didn't wager on this one but I'm super interested to see who Biden picks.
Wish you guys good luck.
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Old 08-11-2020, 01:44 PM   #1606
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Lol....slaying dragons. A handful of my plays.


June 15th

Will Susan Rice Be The Democratic Vice-President Nominee - 2020 US Election? - Yes +642 - (Yes vrs No)


June 15th

Will Kamala Harris Be The Democratic Vice-President Nominee - 2020 US Election? - No -119 - (Yes vrs No)


June 15th

All in - No Refunds - US 2020 Elections - Democratic Vice President Nominee - Elizabeth Warren +1100



May 18th

All in - No Refunds - US 2020 Elections - Democratic Vice President Nominee - Val Demings +1650






April 20th

Will K Harris/A Klobuchar/S Abrams Be The Democratic Vice-President Nominee - 2020 US Election? - No +134 - (Yes vrs No)


April 18th

All in - No Refunds - US 2020 Elections - Democratic Vice President Nominee - Gretchen Whitmer +1000






January 13th

( 2020 Tour Championship) - PGA - FedEx Cup Championship 2020 - Collin Morikawa +5250
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Old 08-11-2020, 02:10 PM   #1607
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

A good example of horrific analysis involves the speaking list for the convention. There are people whom believe that because Rice is not on the list to speak, that she must be the choice. Well, she is the most likely choice, but her not being on the list means zero, as she would never be speaking anyways if she wasn't chosen, unlike someone like Elizabeth Warren. It just shows you how awful political punditry is.

By having Kamala Harris get her speaking part in prime time, allegedly/supposedly right before Biden, and also close to Gavin Newsom's speech, the Democratic machine is showing the world how bad Kamala Harris is, in order to show that the baton is likely being passed to Gavin Newsom in four years. The stark contrast in their images after they speak will once and for all send Kamala Harris's presidential aspirations to zero, while making fools out of all of those whom for many months spoke as if Kamala Harris ever had a chance to be Biden's choice.

Having her and Gavin Newsom speak so close to each other is a genius way for Biden to exact his revenge on Kamala Harris because the talk afterwards will all be about Gavin Newsom, as there is essentially zero chance that Kamala Harris doesn't get blown out by him in comparison.

In any event, I will have officially destroyed your Kamala Harris wagers soon, possibly within a few hours.

Last edited by Elves; 08-11-2020 at 02:22 PM.
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Old 08-11-2020, 02:36 PM   #1608
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Elves, I don't know about your projection, maybe you're spot on, but you're projecting your own personality with Bidens.
I simply don't believe that Biden is such a petty, vengeful person like you're trying to make him out to be. Everyone seems to be of the consensus that he's a compassionate, forgiving, good human being. Maybe you've confused him with Donald Trump?
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Old 08-11-2020, 02:45 PM   #1609
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Just bet a dollar on Warren next president at 1k:1 seems if we simulated this 1k times Biden gets caught in a scandal or has enough heart attacks where she gets the nomination and wins

May even put in an actual wager the more I think about it at those odds
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Old 08-11-2020, 02:59 PM   #1610
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Elves, I don't know about your projection, maybe you're spot on, but you're projecting your own personality with Bidens.
I simply don't believe that Biden is such a petty, vengeful person like you're trying to make him out to be. Everyone seems to be of the consensus that he's a compassionate, forgiving, good human being. Maybe you've confused him with Donald Trump?
Listen up. Kamala Harris attempted to destroy Joe Biden when Biden was vulnerable and people were looking for other candidates. Because she was such a fraudulent candidate, the attempt backfired on her badly. The reason that Biden had the Kamala Harris notes, and the reason she was given a primetime slot close to Newsom's speech is because Democratic insiders want to officially keep the peace, and they also want to make it clear that the Democratic party's future lies with Newsom and not Harris. Harris could have easily cost the democrats their best chance to beat Trump, because without Biden you have Bernie, and Bernie scares people from both parties. The democrats needed a boring safe candidate, and they could only get that with Biden.

It will be evident after both Newsom and Harris speak. The narrative will change to Newsom, who will be the future, and Kamala Harris will never seriously be talked about for vice president or president again. That's just the way it is, and you can either accept it now before it is obvious to everyone, or you can play it safe and finally see the light after hearing them both speak and seeing how quickly Kamala Harris is jettisoned out of the way.

Last edited by Elves; 08-11-2020 at 03:04 PM.
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Old 08-11-2020, 03:10 PM   #1611
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Listen up. Kamala Harris attempted to destroy Joe Biden.
I really shouldn't be doing this. It has little to do with what this thread is really about. But, for the sake of civil discourse and the fact that I'm sort of a nerd, I can't help it. Elves, after all is said and done, let's have a beer. Cheers.

" I don't hold grudges " , Biden.


https://www.newsmax.com/politics/bid.../06/id/980920/
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Old 08-11-2020, 03:22 PM   #1612
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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There are people whom believe...

while making fools out of all of those whom for many months spoke as if Kamala Harris ever had a chance to be Biden's choice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elves View Post

Anyone whom put multiple hours into Kamala Harris research

rarely asking whom was really the most qualified,
You may be right about Kamala, but every instance where you've used whom has been incorrect. It's the subject of all of those clauses.
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Old 08-11-2020, 03:24 PM   #1613
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

CNN reporting Biden has told top advisors who VP pick is. Followed by inexplicable movement for Rice on Predictit. Probably time to consider exiting Harris positions or hedging if you are able to do so.
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Old 08-11-2020, 03:38 PM   #1614
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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CNN reporting Biden has told top advisors who VP pick is. Followed by inexplicable movement for Rice on Predictit. Probably time to consider exiting Harris positions or hedging if you are able to do so.
i think it'll be rice at this point, but i doubt biden advisors are leaking the pick to people who are betting on predictit
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Old 08-11-2020, 03:50 PM   #1615
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Rice had a pump and was at .75 yes at one point yesterday at around ~5:00 to 5:30 pst.
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Old 08-11-2020, 03:50 PM   #1616
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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i think it'll be rice at this point, but i doubt biden advisors are leaking the pick to people who are betting on predictit
Well predictit had Rice leading as of a few minutes ago, then all of sudden just broke HUGE for Harris so am wondering what's up with that...
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Old 08-11-2020, 03:53 PM   #1617
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Then right back down...
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Old 08-11-2020, 03:58 PM   #1618
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Well predictit had Rice leading as of a few minutes ago, then all of sudden just broke HUGE for Harris so am wondering what's up with that...
Letting it ride on Harris... letís do this.
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Old 08-11-2020, 04:11 PM   #1619
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

PredictIt market doing crazy things.


83 Harris yes
17 rice yes
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Old 08-11-2020, 04:11 PM   #1620
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

given movement guess it has to be harris at this point. nh elves
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Old 08-11-2020, 04:13 PM   #1621
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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given movement guess it has to be harris at this point. nh elves

I'm still not sold that this is any different than Rice hitting .75 yes yesterday.
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Old 08-11-2020, 04:17 PM   #1622
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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I'm still not sold that this is any different than Rice hitting .75 yes yesterday.
CNN breaking that it's Kamala Harris...
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Old 08-11-2020, 04:21 PM   #1623
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

EAT YOUR HEART OUT ELVES
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Old 08-11-2020, 04:22 PM   #1624
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

That pump last night of Rice def had me suspect of the movement today.
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Old 08-11-2020, 04:30 PM   #1625
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

elves gonna make the "this will now sink the biden campaign" pivot. have to double down
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