Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-05-2020, 09:45 AM   #1551
noon
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 358
Re: 2020

Whoever Biden picks for VP should just stay in the basement till November 3rd.

Matter of fact, Joe Biden himself should just stay in the basement till November 3rd.

This election is in the bag if the Democrats don't screw it up.
noon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2020, 09:50 AM   #1552
Nepeeme2008
veteran
 
Nepeeme2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: In position
Posts: 2,133
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

On Kamala Harris and her father and Elves's claims about their relationship.
According to Elves her father, a Stanford professor, "denounced her in the strongest terms." Well, what does that mean exactly Elves? That he strongly criticized her DA record of locking up her fellow blacks? He's a professor, probably another Ben Carson, He was upset at her for pandering for votes after she pretended to have smoked marijuana in order to come across as more black.
that's why all this "denouncement in the strongest terms" was all about.

I don't like her either, but let's not embellish things to try to make a point.
Edit: the fact that he said something instead of respecting his Dao and keeping quiet I think says something about him and about her.

Last edited by Nepeeme2008; 08-05-2020 at 09:58 AM.
Nepeeme2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2020, 09:56 AM   #1553
parttimepro
old hand
 
parttimepro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,262
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I pretty much agree with Swoop, except the "severe likeability issues." I mean, I think she's fine there. Not Obama levels of charisma, but not Hillary levels either.

There is one perfect candidate, Michelle Obama, and she doesn't want the job. If Biden can convince her, I'd be happy to lose $850.

Everyone else has flaws, and it's just a question of who Biden will perceive as the best candidate and best future president. Since it's one person's decision, it'll never be a lock.

I do think the photo of Biden's notes on Kamala is a tell, and I think elves' interpretation is pretty crazy. I can't prove that, any more than anyone could prove that viral dress was blue and black way back when. I mean, if they were break-up notes, why wouldn't he have them for all the contenders? He didn't even really talk about VP in that appearance. It looked to me like he wanted to be careful to say exactly the right thing if a journalist asked him about his chosen candidate. Anybody else, he could be imprecise and it wouldn't matter much.
parttimepro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2020, 11:07 AM   #1554
Spreek
centurion
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 133
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by parttimepro View Post
I do think the photo of Biden's notes on Kamala is a tell, and I think elves' interpretation is pretty crazy. I can't prove that, any more than anyone could prove that viral dress was blue and black way back when. I mean, if they were break-up notes, why wouldn't he have them for all the contenders? He didn't even really talk about VP in that appearance. It looked to me like he wanted to be careful to say exactly the right thing if a journalist asked him about his chosen candidate. Anybody else, he could be imprecise and it wouldn't matter much.
Why didn't he have notes for the other candidates? Because they weren't in the news from multiple people in his campaign shitting on them in various news articles. There was nothing to defend there. It was *clearly* an answer to be used in the event that someone asked him about his thoughts on the Chris Dodd nonsense.

I don't know if I would read into it that Kamala is definitely not the pick, but it's probably not the sort of note he would have if he had definitely decided to choose her either.
Spreek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2020, 12:32 PM   #1555
parttimepro
old hand
 
parttimepro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,262
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

That's a pretty good point.
parttimepro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2020, 03:09 PM   #1556
TomG
Pooh-Bah
 
TomG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: prop manager, crowdsource syndicate
Posts: 3,984
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

It's my understanding that Kamala's father is proud of his Jamaican heritage and was denouncing his daughter perpetuating the pot smoking Jamaican stereotype when she joked about that being the reason for her past usage. He wasn't denouncing her as a person. Please correct me if I have this wrong.
TomG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 12:03 AM   #1557
Elves
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 20
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
If I had to make a case for Harris (and I don't like her much personally) it would be

Sharp debater, should eviscerate Pence in the VP debate, clearly intelligent and willing to play dirty if required to win (see Biden attack first debate), won't be bullied by Trump and is 'tough'.

Former prosecutor makes it harder for Trump's 'law and order' talking points to stick or call her soft on crime

Senator from a blue state, no downside of losing her Senate seat

Young and ambitious, clearly wants to run for President in the future and is clearly qualified enough to take over the Presidency if Biden dies

Decent demographic fit as a woman of color

Comes across as a moderate but has a fairly progressive voting record as a Senator so can play up either moderate or leftist credentials depending on the need at the time

The downside is

Comes across as insincere in the fight for social justice because as an ex prosecutor she basically made her career throwing POC in jail for stuff like pot and distrusted by the progressive left

Willie Brown/slept her way to the top stuff. Republicans will run hard with that, and it will be a problem.

Severe likability issues because she's seen as insincere and also can come across as a 'bitchy bossy woman' which might be scary to midwestern voters - basically all of the same 'strong bossy not likeable woman' downsides Warren has, and Warren has all of the same upsides except being black plus Warren is liked a lot more by the progressive left (although not the insane fringe Warren is a snake left, but thats barely anyone and those voters would hate Kamala more anyway)

Not from a swing state, not particularly well liked by black voters considering she herself is half black

While she's a good campaigner on paper, the more people saw of her the less they liked - remember she was one of the first to drop out after briefly trading as the favourite for the nomination after the first debate

I'm not sure the perfect candidate exists for Biden right now - the best thing he can do is figure out who will do the least harm to the ticket while helping him with at least one key demographic. I feel like he's doing a perfectly fine job of running a 'lets get things back to normal' campaign while letting LOLRepublicans The Lincoln Project effectively run his viral attack ads for him and just staying out of Trumps way and letting him hang himself. The only three ways Biden should be able to lose from here barring a major new scandal which is unlikely given how heavily he's been vetted are either Trump finds a way to cheat successfully, record low turnout or Biden somehow makes this election not a referendum on Trump and becomes even less likable himself somehow.

Kamala Harris is a horrific debater. Tulsi knocked her into outer space. Tulsi told the world that Kamala Harris kept an innocent person on death row due to a late filing technicality. He was stone cold innocent, and Harris's office was aware of that fact, but because the convicted guy's attorneys had missed a certain filing deadline, they fought tooth and nail to keep him locked up. In response to Tulsi Gabbard Harris shook her head, then gave the stupid response that she was against the death penalty.

Harris's biggest moment was also her lowest, and that is when she ambushed Biden trying to knock him out of the race. People forget that lots of people were trying to write Biden off at that time. If Kamala was likeable at all, didn't have a horrific record as a prosecutor, and didn't have such a bad personal history, she might have knocked Biden out and slingshotted into contention.

Harris had the T shirts ready for sale that night, her campaign quickly derailed, and she dropped out so as not to be embarrassed by her lack of support, particularly among black people. She polled at about 5 percent in South Carolina. People also forget that Bernie Sanders was the overwhelming betting favorite in March, and for a brief moment you could get Biden at 15 and 20 to 1 to be the Democratic nominee, and 60 to 1 to win it all. That quickly changed, but it shows you how wrong political punditry usually is. So wrong...almost every time. Nobody had Pence on the list...It was Chris Christie and Bob Corner. Trump was never going with another loudmouth like Christie.

Harris waited until Biden was a lock to support him. If it would have been Bernie she would have supported him. Harris is a fraud and it is known by all who view this with an open mind. Biden's advisor in the selection process was stunned when he asked Kamala Harris about her attack on Biden. He was stunned at her lack of remorse at all. Even Trump basher tv show host Stephen Colbert asked her about it. She just cackled and said "It was a debate" over and over as Colbert surprisingly pressed her on it. She never ever addresses any serious question, nor does she ever admit to a mistake.

Harris has become an obnoxious Twitter partisan loudmouth with daily lazy talking points that mean nothing, and also shamed humanity trying to pass anti-lynching legislation the week after George Floyd's death. She knows this is her only shot in her life to have a chance at being president, so she is going to go down in flames with boring partisan yapping about issues she had zero interest in before she started angling for the presidency.

Everything about her is negative, wrong for the moment, wrong for the big historical context of the presidency, and so for about 50 reasons she will never be chosen. There is nothing positive at all about her that would cause anyone on earth to choose her over Rice or Warren. Elizabeth Warren is far more deserving, but of course her fault is that she she have been born ten years later and should not have been white. People talk about Warren not being able to win Massachusetts. She has always been more of a national big issue politician, and not winning Massachusetts, as someone here mentioned, is not all it seemed, as she had no chance, her supporters knew it, and a decent chunk moved to Bernie. I'm not saying she is loved there, but....

Warren is the sincere person you would want a heartbeat away. Biden could easily go with Rice because Rice does not appear to be the type who would run in four years. Same for Bass. Warrens age might actually help her in this regard. Kamala Harris is the last person Biden and his administration would want as the next in line, for a host of obvious reasons.

Don't drink the Kool Aid. Kamala Harris never gets chosen here, and I mean never. The analysis in this thread is so bad. People talking about swing states...lol. No matter whom is chosen, even if it was somehow Whitmer from Michigan, or Demmings from Florida, it doesn't matter at all in those states. I bet that three months ago less than 15 percent of Floridians knew who Val Demmings was. I'd bet under that number for a lot.

This selection is a Big Picture long term decision for the Democratic party, and the insiders who will actually make the decision are not passing the historical torch to Kamala Harris. It just isn't happening. Most of the insight here and in the media is similar to when professional sports gets close to the playoffs. For example, you will have two bad teams in the NFL playing with three weeks to go...The home team can still make the playoffs if they win out, while the road team is already eliminated. Teams are essentially equal in talent. Home team is minus 6 points and everybody jumps on them because they "have something to play for". They miss the Big picture. There is more pressure on the home team, while the visitors play as if there is nothing to lose, and the visiting team players are also playing for next year's paychecks and contracts, as well. Take the dog every time because the lazy analysis is the wrong side. This happens all the time in the NBA, as well.

Last edited by Elves; 08-06-2020 at 12:11 AM.
Elves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 12:19 AM   #1558
Elves
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 20
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
On Kamala Harris and her father and Elves's claims about their relationship.
According to Elves her father, a Stanford professor, "denounced her in the strongest terms." Well, what does that mean exactly Elves? That he strongly criticized her DA record of locking up her fellow blacks? He's a professor, probably another Ben Carson, He was upset at her for pandering for votes after she pretended to have smoked marijuana in order to come across as more black.
that's why all this "denouncement in the strongest terms" was all about.

I don't like her either, but let's not embellish things to try to make a point.
Edit: the fact that he said something instead of respecting his Dao and keeping quiet I think says something about him and about her.



Kamala Harris' father said she disgraced her Jamaican family by using a 'fraudulent stereotype' to joke about smoking weed
Sinéad Baker Feb 21, 2019, 2:30 AM
Kamala Harris

Sen. Kamala Harris' father criticized a joke she made referring to her Jamaican heritage in response to a question about marijuana, according to the news website Jamaica Global Online.When Harris was asked on a radio show last week whether she had smoked marijuana, she said jokingly, "Half my family's from Jamaica — are you kidding me?"Donald Harris, a professor emeritus of economics at Stanford University, said in a statement to Jamaica Global Online that the senator's grandparents "must be turning in their graves."

Kamala Harris last year said that "making marijuana legal at the federal level is the smart thing to do and it's the right thing to do."

Sen. Kamala Harris' father accused her of disgracing her family by using a "fraudulent stereotype" to say that she had obviously smoked marijuana because she is part Jamaican, according to the news website Jamaica Global Online.

Harris was asked on the radio show "The Breakfast Club" on February 11 whether she had ever smoked weed. She jokingly responded, "Half my family's from Jamaica — are you kidding me?"

She said she smoked a joint in college. "And I did inhale," she said, laughing. "I just broke news."

Her father, Donald Harris, a professor emeritus of economics at Stanford University, criticized his daughter in a statement to Jamaica Global Online last week.

"My dear departed grandmothers (whose extraordinary legacy I described in a recent essay on this website), as well as my deceased parents, must be turning in their grave right now to see their family’s name, reputation and proud Jamaican identity being connected, in any way, jokingly or not with the fraudulent stereotype of a pot-smoking joy seeker and in the pursuit of identity politics," he said.

"Speaking for myself and my immediate Jamaican family, we wish to categorically dissociate ourselves from this travesty."


Is that strong enough for you? If you want to make free money betting against Harris, go watch her Breakfast Club interview, read the comments and look at the dislikes, then compare her interview, comments, and dislikes with Andrew Yang's interview from the same week. Andrew Yang is Asian and 90 percent of the Breakfast Club viewers and commentators are black.
Elves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 12:28 AM   #1559
Elves
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 20
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by parttimepro View Post
I pretty much agree with Swoop, except the "severe likeability issues." I mean, I think she's fine there. Not Obama levels of charisma, but not Hillary levels either.

There is one perfect candidate, Michelle Obama, and she doesn't want the job. If Biden can convince her, I'd be happy to lose $850.

Everyone else has flaws, and it's just a question of who Biden will perceive as the best candidate and best future president. Since it's one person's decision, it'll never be a lock.

I do think the photo of Biden's notes on Kamala is a tell, and I think elves' interpretation is pretty crazy. I can't prove that, any more than anyone could prove that viral dress was blue and black way back when. I mean, if they were break-up notes, why wouldn't he have them for all the contenders? He didn't even really talk about VP in that appearance. It looked to me like he wanted to be careful to say exactly the right thing if a journalist asked him about his chosen candidate. Anybody else, he could be imprecise and it wouldn't matter much.
You are angling for some strong Dunce Cap activity if you think that those notes were because Biden had chosen her, or was even thinking about choosing her. I'm not sure if the Moron Olympics got cancelled this year due to the pandemic or not, but you are doing some serious training right now and I expect to see you on the podium soon. We can have a virtual podium shortly when Harris is of course not chosen, is soon forgotten, and left to whining on Twitter to nobody who cares. She will do that for a while, I guess. She could easily get voted out of the Senate (or just leave) and history will laugh at the idea that some people thought she might be Vice President, and therefore next in line to be president. Big lol all around. Some of Kamala Harris's family history has some serious insincere politicking in it. Do some research. Career politicking, and easy to see lack of substance from a number of them.

Last edited by Elves; 08-06-2020 at 12:35 AM.
Elves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 08:43 AM   #1560
LektorAJ
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
LektorAJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: none
Posts: 7,531
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
it does matter because because when you use another alt persona to hide the real belief of wait for it... another alt persona... it kind of undermines anything you say
Meh - surely you should still be able to think about how you would answer the point if it was made by someone else, and, if there isn't a good answer, change your beliefs as you would if the original point had been made by someone else.

Isn't there a name for this logical fallacy?
LektorAJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 08:57 AM   #1561
Nepeeme2008
veteran
 
Nepeeme2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: In position
Posts: 2,133
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/1...rs-2020-075651

This helps explain somewhat why Harris did so badly with black voters.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/poli...s-favorability

And here's how she ranks in popularity.

Elves has a point. She appears to me to be disconnected from the black community. The community she's identified with. This is not surprising given her family background. She's basically only black in skin color. And she's light skinned black at that. She could pass easy for a latina. I think that makes a difference in how you are treated growing up, and subsequently how you feel about yourself. But that is really irrelevant to Biden picking her or not. It doesn't mean she has no chance.
Nepeeme2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 11:12 AM   #1562
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 8,215
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ View Post
Meh - surely you should still be able to think about how you would answer the point if it was made by someone else, and, if there isn't a good answer, change your beliefs as you would if the original point had been made by someone else.

Isn't there a name for this logical fallacy?
i wasn't being clear enough, it has nothing to do with impacting the argument, i agree with "probably isn't kamala" thesis before elves popped up

i just find it disrespectful is all i'm saying and that counts a lot for me
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 12:01 PM   #1563
noon
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 358
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

It's sad Biden can't find a VPOTUS candidate that doesn't have baggage.

It just keeps getting worse and worse for Karen Bass.

Question: Who has less baggage, Kamala Harris or Susan Rice ??
noon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 03:32 PM   #1564
Nepeeme2008
veteran
 
Nepeeme2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: In position
Posts: 2,133
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
It's my understanding that Kamala's father is proud of his Jamaican heritage and was denouncing his daughter perpetuating the pot smoking Jamaican stereotype when she joked about that being the reason for her past usage. He wasn't denouncing her as a person. Please correct me if I have this wrong.
No, you are not wrong.
Nepeeme2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 05:30 PM   #1565
vinivici9586
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
vinivici9586's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 9,560
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by noon View Post
It's sad Biden can't find a VPOTUS candidate that doesn't have baggage.

It just keeps getting worse and worse for Karen Bass.

Question: Who has less baggage, Kamala Harris or Susan Rice ??
Whitmer shares going up - maybe the nittiest choice
vinivici9586 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 09:25 PM   #1566
Nepeeme2008
veteran
 
Nepeeme2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: In position
Posts: 2,133
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Ok guys, I know everyone here is riveted to their seats about who's going to be the Democratic vp choice, but let's change things up a bit and add some spice to our lives.
I know Nate Silver has long been a household name on this forum but no one, to my knowledge, has mentioned Alan Lichtman. The So called guru who supposedly has made the right presidential pick since 1980. I think it was 1980?
Well, he's just come out with his 13 point model, or system, or whatever you want to call it. He's just predicted, a day ago I think, that Biden will win and Trumps will lose.
So there you have it. It's done. Unless Trumps declared martial law and invites Russian troops to help police the streets I guess. With this guy, you can't put nothing past him.
Nepeeme2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2020, 07:06 AM   #1567
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 21,161
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Predicting 7-8 or so elections in a row isn't super impressive when about half of them were outside the margin of error, from memory only 3 of them were close (both Dubya elections and Trump)

By that metric if people picked randomly for races inside the margin of error and took the fav for those outside the margin of error 1 in 8 pundits should have a 100% ratio
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2020, 07:53 AM   #1568
LektorAJ
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
LektorAJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: none
Posts: 7,531
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
Ok guys, I know everyone here is riveted to their seats about who's going to be the Democratic vp choice, but let's change things up a bit and add some spice to our lives.
I know Nate Silver has long been a household name on this forum but no one, to my knowledge, has mentioned Alan Lichtman. The So called guru who supposedly has made the right presidential pick since 1980. I think it was 1980?
Well, he's just come out with his 13 point model, or system, or whatever you want to call it. He's just predicted, a day ago I think, that Biden will win and Trumps will lose.
So there you have it. It's done. Unless Trumps declared martial law and invites Russian troops to help police the streets I guess. With this guy, you can't put nothing past him.
Presumably Lichtman's model has considered and discounted that possibility though
LektorAJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2020, 08:30 AM   #1569
Nepeeme2008
veteran
 
Nepeeme2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: In position
Posts: 2,133
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Predicting 7-8 or so elections in a row isn't super impressive when about half of them were outside the margin of error, from memory only 3 of them were close (both Dubya elections and Trump)

By that metric if people picked randomly for races inside the margin of error and took the fav for those outside the margin of error 1 in 8 pundits should have a 100% ratio
Well yes, even I predicted earlier a Biden victory. And I'm sure no one here will mistake me for a prediction expert

But the point is none the less, all his predictions have come true. If you guys want to see it for yourselves, I caught it on the fake New York Times YouTube channel. And I have some friendly advice for anyone here who might not be happy with the result of Trump losing. Just leave
Nepeeme2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2020, 11:39 AM   #1570
Spreek
centurion
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 133
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Lichtman's model is total bunk.

But you also somehow completed flipped it. He predicts trump will win, not biden.
Spreek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2020, 12:54 PM   #1571
Nepeeme2008
veteran
 
Nepeeme2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: In position
Posts: 2,133
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

https://www.themarysue.com/allan-lic...ediction-2020/

I'm not going to argue whether Lichtman's prediction model is bunk or not, but he clearly is predicting a Biden win, so I don't know what Spreek is talking about.
Nepeeme2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2020, 01:02 PM   #1572
Nepeeme2008
veteran
 
Nepeeme2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: In position
Posts: 2,133
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

https://youtu.be/RsUwGB7X5Po

Multiple sources. And I'm sure everyone knows his website.

I think it's clear i don't like Trump and blame him, rightfully so, for the countries troubles. Not Dr. Fauci or the Who or ANTIFA but Trump. But this has nothing to do with that.
Just posting what Lichtman predicated.
And yeah, sure, rubbing it in a little. Sarrrrry baass.

Last edited by Nepeeme2008; 08-07-2020 at 01:14 PM.
Nepeeme2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2020, 01:19 PM   #1573
Spreek
centurion
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 133
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

lol my bad im dumb

misread article, and confused him with some other bunk "fundamental" modeler. there are so many of them hard overfitting, its pretty funny.
Spreek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2020, 01:23 PM   #1574
Nepeeme2008
veteran
 
Nepeeme2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: In position
Posts: 2,133
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spreek View Post
lol my bad im dumb

misread article, and confused him with some other bunk "fundamental" modeler. there are so many of them hard overfitting, its pretty funny.
Oh no problems.
Maybe I should apologize.
But anyways. I get it, his methodology is rather archaic. He's been using the same model for over 30 years! And I'm not totally convinced either.
To tell the truth, I'll be convinced of the results only a month before the election. But by then the polls and all other indicators should hold up for a month.
Nepeeme2008 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-07-2020, 01:34 PM   #1575
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 21,161
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Rice in to 3 bucks or so on Betfair, Kamala at 2.16ish

Everyone else is super long now, Whitmer/Duckworth/Warren/Demings the next tier


Rice has less baggage, if they're gonna say Rice was national security advisor during Benghazi they could play that card 'Biden was VP during Benghazi' they just spent half a decade trying to blame Hillary for Benghazi, to now try and play the same card on Rice can't possibly be a winning tactic

Unless Rice has a Willie Brown or chucking black teenagers in jail for pot in her past, she has less baggage

I'm actually tempted to fire some more Rice. I feel like it's what Biden will do, a safe pick, someone he trusts, less upside but less downside, etc
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:03 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online