Whoever Biden picks for VP should just stay in the basement till November 3rd.

Matter of fact, Joe Biden himself should just stay in the basement till November 3rd.

This election is in the bag if the Democrats don't screw it up.

On Kamala Harris and her father and Elves's claims about their relationship.
According to Elves her father, a Stanford professor, "denounced her in the strongest terms." Well, what does that mean exactly Elves? That he strongly criticized her DA record of locking up her fellow blacks? He's a professor, probably another Ben Carson, He was upset at her for pandering for votes after she pretended to have smoked marijuana in order to come across as more black.
that's why all this "denouncement in the strongest terms" was all about.

I don't like her either, but let's not embellish things to try to make a point.
Edit: the fact that he said something instead of respecting his Dao and keeping quiet I think says something about him and about her.

I pretty much agree with Swoop, except the "severe likeability issues." I mean, I think she's fine there. Not Obama levels of charisma, but not Hillary levels either.

There is one perfect candidate, Michelle Obama, and she doesn't want the job. If Biden can convince her, I'd be happy to lose $850.

Everyone else has flaws, and it's just a question of who Biden will perceive as the best candidate and best future president. Since it's one person's decision, it'll never be a lock.

I do think the photo of Biden's notes on Kamala is a tell, and I think elves' interpretation is pretty crazy. I can't prove that, any more than anyone could prove that viral dress was blue and black way back when. I mean, if they were break-up notes, why wouldn't he have them for all the contenders? He didn't even really talk about VP in that appearance. It looked to me like he wanted to be careful to say exactly the right thing if a journalist asked him about his chosen candidate. Anybody else, he could be imprecise and it wouldn't matter much.

Why didn't he have notes for the other candidates? Because they weren't in the news from multiple people in his campaign shitting on them in various news articles. There was nothing to defend there. It was *clearly* an answer to be used in the event that someone asked him about his thoughts on the Chris Dodd nonsense.

I don't know if I would read into it that Kamala is definitely not the pick, but it's probably not the sort of note he would have if he had definitely decided to choose her either.

That's a pretty good point.

It's my understanding that Kamala's father is proud of his Jamaican heritage and was denouncing his daughter perpetuating the pot smoking Jamaican stereotype when she joked about that being the reason for her past usage. He wasn't denouncing her as a person. Please correct me if I have this wrong.

Kamala Harris is a horrific debater. Tulsi knocked her into outer space. Tulsi told the world that Kamala Harris kept an innocent person on death row due to a late filing technicality. He was stone cold innocent, and Harris's office was aware of that fact, but because the convicted guy's attorneys had missed a certain filing deadline, they fought tooth and nail to keep him locked up. In response to Tulsi Gabbard Harris shook her head, then gave the stupid response that she was against the death penalty.

Harris's biggest moment was also her lowest, and that is when she ambushed Biden trying to knock him out of the race. People forget that lots of people were trying to write Biden off at that time. If Kamala was likeable at all, didn't have a horrific record as a prosecutor, and didn't have such a bad personal history, she might have knocked Biden out and slingshotted into contention.

Harris had the T shirts ready for sale that night, her campaign quickly derailed, and she dropped out so as not to be embarrassed by her lack of support, particularly among black people. She polled at about 5 percent in South Carolina. People also forget that Bernie Sanders was the overwhelming betting favorite in March, and for a brief moment you could get Biden at 15 and 20 to 1 to be the Democratic nominee, and 60 to 1 to win it all. That quickly changed, but it shows you how wrong political punditry usually is. So wrong...almost every time. Nobody had Pence on the list...It was Chris Christie and Bob Corner. Trump was never going with another loudmouth like Christie.

Harris waited until Biden was a lock to support him. If it would have been Bernie she would have supported him. Harris is a fraud and it is known by all who view this with an open mind. Biden's advisor in the selection process was stunned when he asked Kamala Harris about her attack on Biden. He was stunned at her lack of remorse at all. Even Trump basher tv show host Stephen Colbert asked her about it. She just cackled and said "It was a debate" over and over as Colbert surprisingly pressed her on it. She never ever addresses any serious question, nor does she ever admit to a mistake.

Harris has become an obnoxious Twitter partisan loudmouth with daily lazy talking points that mean nothing, and also shamed humanity trying to pass anti-lynching legislation the week after George Floyd's death. She knows this is her only shot in her life to have a chance at being president, so she is going to go down in flames with boring partisan yapping about issues she had zero interest in before she started angling for the presidency.

Everything about her is negative, wrong for the moment, wrong for the big historical context of the presidency, and so for about 50 reasons she will never be chosen. There is nothing positive at all about her that would cause anyone on earth to choose her over Rice or Warren. Elizabeth Warren is far more deserving, but of course her fault is that she she have been born ten years later and should not have been white. People talk about Warren not being able to win Massachusetts. She has always been more of a national big issue politician, and not winning Massachusetts, as someone here mentioned, is not all it seemed, as she had no chance, her supporters knew it, and a decent chunk moved to Bernie. I'm not saying she is loved there, but....

Warren is the sincere person you would want a heartbeat away. Biden could easily go with Rice because Rice does not appear to be the type who would run in four years. Same for Bass. Warrens age might actually help her in this regard. Kamala Harris is the last person Biden and his administration would want as the next in line, for a host of obvious reasons.

Don't drink the Kool Aid. Kamala Harris never gets chosen here, and I mean never. The analysis in this thread is so bad. People talking about swing states...lol. No matter whom is chosen, even if it was somehow Whitmer from Michigan, or Demmings from Florida, it doesn't matter at all in those states. I bet that three months ago less than 15 percent of Floridians knew who Val Demmings was. I'd bet under that number for a lot.

This selection is a Big Picture long term decision for the Democratic party, and the insiders who will actually make the decision are not passing the historical torch to Kamala Harris. It just isn't happening. Most of the insight here and in the media is similar to when professional sports gets close to the playoffs. For example, you will have two bad teams in the NFL playing with three weeks to go...The home team can still make the playoffs if they win out, while the road team is already eliminated. Teams are essentially equal in talent. Home team is minus 6 points and everybody jumps on them because they "have something to play for". They miss the Big picture. There is more pressure on the home team, while the visitors play as if there is nothing to lose, and the visiting team players are also playing for next year's paychecks and contracts, as well. Take the dog every time because the lazy analysis is the wrong side. This happens all the time in the NBA, as well.

Kamala Harris' father said she disgraced her Jamaican family by using a 'fraudulent stereotype' to joke about smoking weed
Sinéad Baker Feb 21, 2019, 2:30 AM
Kamala Harris

Sen. Kamala Harris' father criticized a joke she made referring to her Jamaican heritage in response to a question about marijuana, according to the news website Jamaica Global Online.When Harris was asked on a radio show last week whether she had smoked marijuana, she said jokingly, "Half my family's from Jamaica — are you kidding me?"Donald Harris, a professor emeritus of economics at Stanford University, said in a statement to Jamaica Global Online that the senator's grandparents "must be turning in their graves."

Kamala Harris last year said that "making marijuana legal at the federal level is the smart thing to do and it's the right thing to do."

Sen. Kamala Harris' father accused her of disgracing her family by using a "fraudulent stereotype" to say that she had obviously smoked marijuana because she is part Jamaican, according to the news website Jamaica Global Online.

Harris was asked on the radio show "The Breakfast Club" on February 11 whether she had ever smoked weed. She jokingly responded, "Half my family's from Jamaica — are you kidding me?"

She said she smoked a joint in college. "And I did inhale," she said, laughing. "I just broke news."

Her father, Donald Harris, a professor emeritus of economics at Stanford University, criticized his daughter in a statement to Jamaica Global Online last week.

"My dear departed grandmothers (whose extraordinary legacy I described in a recent essay on this website), as well as my deceased parents, must be turning in their grave right now to see their family’s name, reputation and proud Jamaican identity being connected, in any way, jokingly or not with the fraudulent stereotype of a pot-smoking joy seeker and in the pursuit of identity politics," he said.

"Speaking for myself and my immediate Jamaican family, we wish to categorically dissociate ourselves from this travesty."


Is that strong enough for you? If you want to make free money betting against Harris, go watch her Breakfast Club interview, read the comments and look at the dislikes, then compare her interview, comments, and dislikes with Andrew Yang's interview from the same week. Andrew Yang is Asian and 90 percent of the Breakfast Club viewers and commentators are black.

You are angling for some strong Dunce Cap activity if you think that those notes were because Biden had chosen her, or was even thinking about choosing her. I'm not sure if the Moron Olympics got cancelled this year due to the pandemic or not, but you are doing some serious training right now and I expect to see you on the podium soon. We can have a virtual podium shortly when Harris is of course not chosen, is soon forgotten, and left to whining on Twitter to nobody who cares. She will do that for a while, I guess. She could easily get voted out of the Senate (or just leave) and history will laugh at the idea that some people thought she might be Vice President, and therefore next in line to be president. Big lol all around. Some of Kamala Harris's family history has some serious insincere politicking in it. Do some research. Career politicking, and easy to see lack of substance from a number of them.

Meh - surely you should still be able to think about how you would answer the point if it was made by someone else, and, if there isn't a good answer, change your beliefs as you would if the original point had been made by someone else.

Isn't there a name for this logical fallacy?

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/1...rs-2020-075651

This helps explain somewhat why Harris did so badly with black voters.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/poli...s-favorability

And here's how she ranks in popularity.

Elves has a point. She appears to me to be disconnected from the black community. The community she's identified with. This is not surprising given her family background. She's basically only black in skin color. And she's light skinned black at that. She could pass easy for a latina. I think that makes a difference in how you are treated growing up, and subsequently how you feel about yourself. But that is really irrelevant to Biden picking her or not. It doesn't mean she has no chance.

i wasn't being clear enough, it has nothing to do with impacting the argument, i agree with "probably isn't kamala" thesis before elves popped up

i just find it disrespectful is all i'm saying and that counts a lot for me

It's sad Biden can't find a VPOTUS candidate that doesn't have baggage.

It just keeps getting worse and worse for Karen Bass.

Question: Who has less baggage, Kamala Harris or Susan Rice ??

No, you are not wrong.

Whitmer shares going up - maybe the nittiest choice

Ok guys, I know everyone here is riveted to their seats about who's going to be the Democratic vp choice, but let's change things up a bit and add some spice to our lives.
I know Nate Silver has long been a household name on this forum but no one, to my knowledge, has mentioned Alan Lichtman. The So called guru who supposedly has made the right presidential pick since 1980. I think it was 1980?
Well, he's just come out with his 13 point model, or system, or whatever you want to call it. He's just predicted, a day ago I think, that Biden will win and Trumps will lose.
So there you have it. It's done. Unless Trumps declared martial law and invites Russian troops to help police the streets I guess. With this guy, you can't put nothing past him.

Predicting 7-8 or so elections in a row isn't super impressive when about half of them were outside the margin of error, from memory only 3 of them were close (both Dubya elections and Trump)

By that metric if people picked randomly for races inside the margin of error and took the fav for those outside the margin of error 1 in 8 pundits should have a 100% ratio

Presumably Lichtman's model has considered and discounted that possibility though

Well yes, even I predicted earlier a Biden victory. And I'm sure no one here will mistake me for a prediction expert

But the point is none the less, all his predictions have come true. If you guys want to see it for yourselves, I caught it on the fake New York Times YouTube channel. And I have some friendly advice for anyone here who might not be happy with the result of Trump losing. Just leave

Lichtman's model is total bunk.

But you also somehow completed flipped it. He predicts trump will win, not biden.

https://www.themarysue.com/allan-lic...ediction-2020/

I'm not going to argue whether Lichtman's prediction model is bunk or not, but he clearly is predicting a Biden win, so I don't know what Spreek is talking about.

https://youtu.be/RsUwGB7X5Po

Multiple sources. And I'm sure everyone knows his website.

I think it's clear i don't like Trump and blame him, rightfully so, for the countries troubles. Not Dr. Fauci or the Who or ANTIFA but Trump. But this has nothing to do with that.
Just posting what Lichtman predicated.
And yeah, sure, rubbing it in a little. Sarrrrry baass.

lol my bad im dumb

misread article, and confused him with some other bunk "fundamental" modeler. there are so many of them hard overfitting, its pretty funny.

Oh no problems.
Maybe I should apologize.
But anyways. I get it, his methodology is rather archaic. He's been using the same model for over 30 years! And I'm not totally convinced either.
To tell the truth, I'll be convinced of the results only a month before the election. But by then the polls and all other indicators should hold up for a month.

Rice in to 3 bucks or so on Betfair, Kamala at 2.16ish

Everyone else is super long now, Whitmer/Duckworth/Warren/Demings the next tier


Rice has less baggage, if they're gonna say Rice was national security advisor during Benghazi they could play that card 'Biden was VP during Benghazi' they just spent half a decade trying to blame Hillary for Benghazi, to now try and play the same card on Rice can't possibly be a winning tactic

Unless Rice has a Willie Brown or chucking black teenagers in jail for pot in her past, she has less baggage

I'm actually tempted to fire some more Rice. I feel like it's what Biden will do, a safe pick, someone he trusts, less upside but less downside, etc