to me, this is clyburn saying its okay to tap liz

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...lot-of-passion

and its a fair analysis of biden. is Trump: Pence as Biden: Warren?

I think the Scientology and Castro stuff kills Bass as VP pick, makes me wonder what was in Demings background that she went from a top contender to not even one of the finalists

Duckworth or Warren would be a lock if either were black, but they're not...

Harris is well, a cop

So I guess that leaves Rice as my preferred pick of the people Biden might pick

I have enough on Biden that I actually think I want my Bass +5500 to lose if we have to see those scientology/castro clips til the election your job is to not be a negative as VP

Harris has the first debate calling Biden a racist clips you just cant move past that surely Trump and the Rs will have it on loop

I know a few people ITT had serious reservations about Rice being an 'elitist' etc but if she doesn't really campaign and her job is to be black, female and a competent part of the Obama administration who Biden trusts she ticks all the boxes

I feel like if I was Biden i'd have initially picked Warren but after vetting this many black women he sort of has to pick one of them or risk depressing the black vote even though Warren is popular enough with black voters - so Rice is my pick by default due to disliking/distrusting Harris and the Bass Scientology/Castro stuff is a killer even if she can explain away what she meant in both cases, you can't be on camera praising scientology and castro and be a VP nominee

Gonna see how the next few days play out but I may end up making a more substantial play on Rice for VP at the +4xx range

When you're winning, which Biden is, you want your VP pick to do absolutely nothing to change the narrative

Basically, what Tim Kaine was, only he didn't tick any key demographic or swing state boxes as if Clinton had lost VA the election was already lost

Rice is qualified and as non scary for white people as a black female VP can be and doesn't really seem to be widely hated by either progressives or moderates.

If we're going high risk I like the upside on Warren more, but she carries downside risk - if the race was tied i'd probably pick Warren if i'm Biden, but when i'm up 9 points or so and Trump keeps hanging himself with a new bad news cycle every week with three months to go why risk anything that changes the narrative

Saying Warren carries downside risk is putting it mildly.

Warren could not even win her home state presidential primary.

That says a lot.

Caucasian men hate Warren more than they hate Hillary, in my opinion.

Yeah, Trump's whole campaign message is, "Biden is out of it and will be a captive of the far-left people surrounding him." Picking Warren absolutely plays into that message.

swoop, i'd be pretty shocked if someone so heavily involved in benghazi, whether real or imagined, is ever going to be pegged as a vp candidate - no ffing way biden wants to open himself up to that, especially since many of those on the fence are going to cite two beltway insiders vs trump as more evidence of the need to keep trying something new instead of the same old circle of insiders

i think it's insane you guys are worried about someone being a cop but not being involved in benghazi/scientology/etc

the people who would be turned off by cops enough to not want a former one as vp are already voting for anyone but trump and are not the kind to stay at home - they'll be able to rationalize biden is the real person in charge and not all cops are evil - you don't need to worry about being a former cop hurting nearly as much as scientology/benghazi

susan rice is merely included because she's among the most obvious choices who is well connected and it'd be a major gaffe to not at least pretend they seriously considered it imo

i don't know about harris/warren/etc or not but rice and bass are non starters included because it'd look bad if they weren't included

isn't this revisionist history? iirc VA was similar to "blue wall"

so it's duckworth? we've shut down every canddiate except for her

I'm really not sure what to think about this VP race, but my gut says this is being glossed over too quickly. We know Warren is generally the most or 2nd-most popular VP candidate among black Democrats (leaving aside Abrams). So why do we so quickly assume she'd depress black votes? Especially if Biden can commit other important roles to black women as he's already talked about.

I think the political markets tend to heavily overemphasize the views of the people who are on Twitter, working in the media, etc. Those people tend to skew younger and more progressive.

Where that applies here is I think young progressives are the ones who want a black VP more than black voters. I also think young progressives make a lot more of e.g. Harris's record on crime than older and/or more moderate voters, who make up the wide majority of Dem voters.

Yeah I agree warren carries downside which is why Biden shouldn't pick her when he's ahead atm

She also didn't win her home state because by then she couldn't win the nomination so many of her supporters made the practical choice to vote for Bernie who is ideologically similar and was more viable at the time

Agree VA might be revisionist history altho the demographics were def skewing bluer but you're right it wasnt a lock at the time

Still feel like rice may have the least downside Benghazi isn't new and has been litigated to death saying positive things about Scientology and Castro is worse and so is being a hypocritical prosecutor on video basically calling the nominee a racist

Does anyone have an answer to the above?

I still think Rice makes the most sense tactically but again I don't know enough about her beyond 'competent and boring Obama advisor'

No idea re the above post

Bass is drifting back a bunch after the steam a few days ago

Biden also announced he's delaying his pick by up to a couple weeks and has five finalists to interview

I think it's safe to say it's Harris, Duckworth, Bass, Rice and Warren given the betting odds

Harris back to below evens; Duckworth steamed in to third fav and Bass drifted a bit after the scientology/Castro stuff which makes sense

I don't think anyone here is smart enough to have an answer for that.
Trying to comprehend or even attempt to understand the intellectual greatness and superior brain greatness of Elves is futile.
Our only recourse is to take his words unequivocally for the ultimate truth and wisdom the they are.
Questioning or disputing whatsoever he says would be sacrilegious.

Good value, anything over (+200) in my opinion.

Interesting conversation I heard on WGBH Boston Public Radio.
Two guests appear each Monday. A black male theology professor and a black woman religion scholar. Or something like that. I don't remember exactly but they are both great guests.
To the point. Although Duckworth is considered favorable and viewed as a minority, Warren, according to them, would be a bad choice for Biden. It's looked on as negative that she did not win Mass and also her native American claims. And she is not viewed that favorably among black voters.

Holy **** they really are gonna do August 18 (100th anniversary women’s suffrage). Sadly sold my August 15 + shares for a 5c profit the other day

It'd be a pretty bold move to wait till the second day of the convention to announce the VP.

No Kamala Harris is the free money play, and has been since betting was allowed. See below.

1) Kamala Harris ambushed Joe Biden at the first debate in mid-2019. This was a shocking betrayal, as Harris had "supposedly" been close to Biden's son Beau, who died of brain cancer in 2015. She had T-shirts ready to be sold that night, obviously a pre planned attack for many weeks. What is funny is that her message was misunderstood. If you read the YouTube comments about the debate most of the people believed that she was mad about being bussed to school, but what she was trying to say was that she wanted to be bussed, but that Biden was opposed to that policy. Of course, a day later she admitted that her current view is exactly in line with Biden's view at the time, which has mostly to do with states rights versus federal powers.

That ends the decision making right there. Biden never chooses her in a million years. To make it easier to understand, Biden's two closest advisors are his wife and sister, both of whom despise Harris.

2) The Biden notes concerning Harris are the exact things he was told to say in response to questions about her. Those are generic "break up" notes, and not anywhere near what you would say of a chosen, or about to be chosen candidate. If she was the choice, he doesnt need notes three weeks before the decision is announced.

3) The majority of black people believe that Kamala Harris is a fraud, untrustworthy, and insincere. That is the view of most people, generally.

4) Her own father, a Stanford professor, denounced her in the strongest terms.

5) Admittedly had an affair with a married Willie Brown, who then gave her her political start with a cushy six figure position of no real consequence.

6) Fought to keep an innocent man on death row, due to a technicality (delayed filing). This was an exonerated man.

7) Disobeyed California Supreme Court orders to free some non violent offenders. This went on for years.

8) Prosecuted parents of kids who were late for school.

9) Jailed marijuana smokers when the country was moving in the other direction, then admitted to having smoked marijuana in college herself on her interview with the Breakfast Club, laughing it off saying that she was Jamaican. When asked what music she listened to when she smoked in college, she said "of course Tupac" but of course he arrived on the music scene a decade later. Check the likes and dislikes on her video, and compare her interview with Andrew Yangs Breakfast Club interview. Look at the likes and dislikes, as well as the comments. Andrew Yang is Asian, and 90 percent of the Breakfast Club audience is black.


10) Divisive personality.


11) Married to an elitist white guy. Has no biological children of her own.

12) Proven to have not gained national traction when running for president, dropping out before the primaries. The more people looked, the worse their opinions of Kamala Harris became.

13) I could go on and reel off at least twenty more reasons. Just take a step back and think for yourself. Is her history, career arc, and momentum worthy of being president of the United States. She does not motivate anyone in a positive way. She is not a one off charismatic break the mold type like Trump. She does not fit when looking at the Big picture (or any picture).

Does the history of the United States look like this even one percent of the time?

Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, Harris.

She could not be more out of place on the list. Obama would never allow it to happen, either, as she would seriously water down his legacy. History never has Kamala Harris, of all people, being the next black president, but that is exactly the position she would be in if Biden chose her. She is wrong on every big issue (her record speaks).

She called herself Top Cop. Her history against minorities, specifically black males, could not be worse.

Don't be shocked if Biden picks Warren. Susan Rice always gets picked before Kamala Harris, so Harris effectively has zero chance. He has kept some people in the running as more of a pr move. To be honest, Duckworth looks like a sympathy play for the media. By delaying his "official" decision until likely just days before the convention, it brings Elizabeth Warren closer to being the pick than her odds suggest.

Unless a wild card is picked, Susan Rice is most likely, followed by Warren, and then Bass (Scientology and Castro issues are not enough to eliminate her).

Biden never chooses someone who betrayed him on the biggest stage. Harris put Biden at serious risk. If she was a likeable person, or at least had a coherent message that night, or even anything short of a horrific track record, she very well might have permanently damaged his presidential aspirations. That is what she was trying to do.

But in the lazy media's world, and the sheep like followers who don't really put in the research or have their own insights, you would think that Kamala Harris has about a 50 percent chance of being selected.

I will say it one more time. Kamala Harris's odds of being VP are zero.

Elves, do you want to bet? My Harris vs. your Warren, all other picks push, even money. If Harris is a zero, you should jump on this.

Your clown logic is consistent with your clown analysis in this thread. Most of you talk about the VP as if the VP matters in swing states, etc. It is tough to read. You don't understand. Kamala Harris is the one candidate out of the "assumed" short list of candidates whom absolutely does not belong in the group. Her record is not worthy, nor is it the type of record or personal history that will ever be president.

I have already bet against Harris straight up, as well as bet against the group of Harris, Klobucher and Abrams. I also bet Warren at 4, 10, and 14 to 1, and added Rice at 6 to 1. I have some Whitmer, as well.

No, I'm not taking you up on your ridiculous offer, for reasons that are too embarrassing to you to even mention.

The reality is that you simply don't understand the Big picture, and if the media didn't tell you that Kamala Harris was the front runner, you would never have organically put her in your top 20. Of course the media didn't even figure out that Trump was going to win until his odds reached 15 to 1 on the day of the election, after votes were being counted, having started the day at 3 to 1.

Enjoy the announcement. I'm sure you will claim to have hedged your stupid Harris wagers. Every dollar you bet on her is a loser.

Really curious who's main account is behind elves

Maybe Toothsayer? He's a huge dickhead who posts like Elves and has a tendency to get banned. I got into it with him on the BFI board, and he's exactly the kind of guy who would follow me over here.

And Elves, my offer remains open. I've maxed out my long Harris and short Warren positions on PredictIt, and would love to get some more down. I'd think you'd want the freeroll if Harris is really a zero. Maybe you don't have $1700 to bet, though.

I have no idea who Elves is, but I'm not interested in argument by biography anyway. Either his reasoning holds water or it doesn't. I'm interested in arguments why Harris > Rice and why that list of "forgive" Harris points isn't a part of a "let's just be friends" speech and I'm not hearing them.

I have taken the lay side against her on Betfair though I bet on a much smaller scale than many ITT.

it does matter because because when you use another alt persona to hide the real belief of wait for it... another alt persona... it kind of undermines anything you say and basically just boils down to contentious trolling

i'm not sold on it being harris either but i would still find it disturbing if anyone in real life preferred to communicate with me via a sock puppet and pretend like he personally is not in the room

If I had to make a case for Harris (and I don't like her much personally) it would be

Sharp debater, should eviscerate Pence in the VP debate, clearly intelligent and willing to play dirty if required to win (see Biden attack first debate), won't be bullied by Trump and is 'tough'.

Former prosecutor makes it harder for Trump's 'law and order' talking points to stick or call her soft on crime

Senator from a blue state, no downside of losing her Senate seat

Young and ambitious, clearly wants to run for President in the future and is clearly qualified enough to take over the Presidency if Biden dies

Decent demographic fit as a woman of color

Comes across as a moderate but has a fairly progressive voting record as a Senator so can play up either moderate or leftist credentials depending on the need at the time

The downside is

Comes across as insincere in the fight for social justice because as an ex prosecutor she basically made her career throwing POC in jail for stuff like pot and distrusted by the progressive left

Willie Brown/slept her way to the top stuff. Republicans will run hard with that, and it will be a problem.

Severe likability issues because she's seen as insincere and also can come across as a 'bitchy bossy woman' which might be scary to midwestern voters - basically all of the same 'strong bossy not likeable woman' downsides Warren has, and Warren has all of the same upsides except being black plus Warren is liked a lot more by the progressive left (although not the insane fringe Warren is a snake left, but thats barely anyone and those voters would hate Kamala more anyway)

Not from a swing state, not particularly well liked by black voters considering she herself is half black

While she's a good campaigner on paper, the more people saw of her the less they liked - remember she was one of the first to drop out after briefly trading as the favourite for the nomination after the first debate

I'm not sure the perfect candidate exists for Biden right now - the best thing he can do is figure out who will do the least harm to the ticket while helping him with at least one key demographic. I feel like he's doing a perfectly fine job of running a 'lets get things back to normal' campaign while letting LOLRepublicans The Lincoln Project effectively run his viral attack ads for him and just staying out of Trumps way and letting him hang himself. The only three ways Biden should be able to lose from here barring a major new scandal which is unlikely given how heavily he's been vetted are either Trump finds a way to cheat successfully, record low turnout or Biden somehow makes this election not a referendum on Trump and becomes even less likable himself somehow.