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Old 07-09-2020, 11:23 AM   #1426
sixsigma7
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

He's been fighting tooth and nail to protect his tax returns and now (as of today's supreme court hearing) we're going to see them.
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Old 07-09-2020, 11:44 AM   #1427
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Just ran across a Fox news article that I thought very interesting.
I have only gotten interested in betting on politics this election cycle. Never heard of this guy.
A certain Stony Brook professor named, wait for it, Helmut Norpoth says, according to his model, Trump's chance of winning the election is 91 percent.
It's based on the primaries. And Biden didn't do well in the primaries. Until South Carolina, that is.
He's supposed to have, or his model, correctly predicted 25 out of 27 elections.
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Old 07-09-2020, 12:30 PM   #1428
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Hmmmm...a FOX news analyst predicting Trump as the election winner at 91%. I'm sure he went on to support these other important facts:

Trump is a self-proclaimed genius. And we also have the strongest economy ever with the largest job growth rate in history.

And the coronavirus vanished in April when the heat came and society is completely back to normal.

I mean, c'mon...FOX is quite literally state-run media. We might as well be in North Korea.

Hannity, Tucker Carleson, Greg Gutfeld, Hannity, the list goes on...walk them all off a plank. We'd be far better off without their delusions. I often wonder if they really believe them. My guess is No.

But the worst in my opinion, (and yes ladies if there are any ladies actually on this thread, I'm going here and you should too), is Laura Ingraham. She was the prototype for the word C*U*N*T*. And quite frankly, I'd like to hit her between the eyes with a spatula.

Okay...I'm done with my therapeutic rant.
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Old 07-09-2020, 12:46 PM   #1429
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I know. I also view that article with a lot of scepticism. But I think what we learned in 2016 is, you can't take anything for granted.
As the way things stand right now, a Trump win would defy all logic. But I wouldn't dismiss this guy just yet, without having a better look into his credentials.
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Old 07-09-2020, 12:51 PM   #1430
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

http://primarymodel.com

Well , here's the web site.
Sounds like the people who wrote this are on some kind of drugs.
But make your own judgements folks.

Last edited by Nepeeme2008; 07-09-2020 at 12:56 PM.
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Old 07-09-2020, 01:03 PM   #1431
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I think we have to go back to basics. Good old fashioned common sense. And stop just blindly looking solely on these models. Wink wink
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Old 07-09-2020, 01:58 PM   #1432
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
http://primarymodel.com

Well , here's the web site.
Sounds like the people who wrote this are on some kind of drugs.
But make your own judgements folks.
garbage in, garbage out.
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Old 07-09-2020, 04:46 PM   #1433
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Amen! Nothing like some good old common sense.
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Old 07-10-2020, 07:46 AM   #1434
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

i'm pretty sure I've been saying future bets are retarded for years now

I wont start now to prove some steam chaser wrong

in addition betting on politics seems immoral to me but that's a different subject entirely
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Old 07-10-2020, 09:47 AM   #1435
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
Just ran across a Fox news article that I thought very interesting.
I have only gotten interested in betting on politics this election cycle. Never heard of this guy.
A certain Stony Brook professor named, wait for it, Helmut Norpoth says, according to his model, Trump's chance of winning the election is 91 percent.
It's based on the primaries. And Biden didn't do well in the primaries. Until South Carolina, that is.
He's supposed to have, or his model, correctly predicted 25 out of 27 elections.
There are a bunch of moronic models that say stuff like this that aren't worth anything. This model is utter garbage, I could probably make a better model in an hour. Anything that has Trump over 90% to win right now is even more laughable than if I were to say Biden is 99% to win right now (he's a favourite sure but obv not 99% right now)

Last cycle there were models that had Hillary at 99.x% when she was 70-75% or so as a fair price given she was up 4ish in the polls and won the popular vote by 2.6% but ran bad in the key swing states (and also made some campaigning errors like ignoring the midwest)

You can also find models that say trump can't get re-elected with his current approval rate or unemployment or he can't lose with the stockmarket high or whatever else this is a fairly unique election in that Trump is a historical-levels hated and loved incumbent by his opposition and base, there's a once in a hundred years pandemic going on, the mass unemployment while stock prices keep being pumped artificially and so on

What matters are Trump's numbers in PA/MI/WI and to a lesser extent in AZ NC FL and places like NH but the Midwest is the battleground on which the election will be decided

The only other factors that matter are enthusiasm levels for turnout, whether there is a realistic chance of Trump outright cheating beyond basic voter supression which is built into every cycle and whether there are obstacles that would prevent turnout levels from hitting 55% or so (once it hits 55-57% or so, Trump is toast)

Betting on politics being immoral when you're a ****ing Trump supporter who thinks racism is the natural way things are and should be is laughable btw lvr - I do agree in general with you though that the lost utility of tying up money for months for futures for a single digit ROI is usually a bad idea, but i'm pretty convinced I have a double digit ROI here and my bankroll's at a point where it won't miss the low five figs I have on so far - if I end up whacking a lot of money on the election though it'll be much closer to the election

In my opinion Trump is about 25% to win atm due to election still being just under 4 months out, market has him at 36% or so right now but if the numbers are the same in a months time it'll be down to 20 or so imo, I doubt market moves Trump much above $3 until at least a few weeks out from the election no matter what the numbers say. If it's the same on election day though with his numbers he's drawing basically dead, there is not going to be a 9% polling error miss. 2% is likely, 5% is possible, once leads are approaching the 10% range in key swing states it's way outside the margin of error barring any major major issues with turnout.

Trump also shot himself in the foot a bit with the attacks on absentee ballots, since his supporters skew older they're normally quite likely to use absentee ballots but with his attacks on them his voters won't want to seem 'disloyal' to Trump and more will vote in person/less will absentee vote, which means some may forget to on the day or whatever. I don't think it'll cost him much but I do think it'll cost him over 0.1% of the vote overall - it'll improve his election night numbers at the expense of final numbers, maybe laying the platform for him to claim the election was rigged without any supporting evidence when Biden outperforms him among absentee ballots, because he basically told his supporters absentee voting is a hoax or whatever.

A lot can change between now and election day but i'm

Tried to talk a (granted rich) non sports betting friend out of betting 10k on Trump today and failed because he consumes too much alt-right media and is convinced Biden has no chance. The casual money's in the market though, this guy is sharp when it comes to buying stock but has no idea what he's doing when it comes to sports betting

Starting to get real in the next few weeks with conventions and VP picks. Let's see whether it shakes up the race, at this point time is Trump's enemy, he needs to change the narrative, energize his base, win over moderates and depress turnout among the Dem base simultaneously over the next few months
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Old 07-10-2020, 12:01 PM   #1436
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Well, may the best man win as they say.
I'd prefer a Biden victory, but I guess whoever wins, the country will still be here the next day.
And I'm saying this because I think, after the previous election, that it's still too early to count the chicks before the eggs hatch. Or something like that.
So this is just my personal views, not a professional opinion.
Biden is performing a lot better than HC was in the polls. If nothing dramatic happens, like some bad dirt coming to light about him, he should cruise to a win.
There is just too big a margin for Trump to make up.
What possibly happened this year with the Trump campaign, and his supporters, is the Hillary syndrome (let's coin that phrase so I can become tik tok famous! Oh, wrong platform). They took a win, because of arrogance and previous results, I guess, for granted.
But like I said. Just my opinion.
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Old 07-10-2020, 12:46 PM   #1437
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...s-biden-324210

Another good article by Politico.

Edit: sure, I said whoever wins, wins. We'll all have to accept and live with the results.
But I prefer to have a President who tells me I have to wear a mask than have a President who tells me I should drink bleach. Not even a contest.

Last edited by Nepeeme2008; 07-10-2020 at 01:11 PM.
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Old 07-10-2020, 01:57 PM   #1438
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Last cycle there were models that had Hillary at 99.x% when she was 70-75% or so as a fair price given she was up 4ish in the polls and won the popular vote by 2.6% but ran bad in the key swing states (and also made some campaigning errors like ignoring the midwest)
yeah and Princeton/Wang is back at it making predictions.

must kill statisticians that the media runs with PrOfEsSoR hAs PrEdIcTeD LaSt 7 ElEcTiOnS stories as if there aren't thousands of professors predicting it and inevitably one or two go 7 for their last 7.

this poll seems pretty devastating. buys biden at least another month of bunker time

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Old 07-10-2020, 04:22 PM   #1439
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I really can't believe Sam Wang has the balls to make any more election predictions. Last time he had Clinton at >99% to win. I saw him give a talk on his prediction methodology, and he ended by congratulating "the next President, whoever she may be."

His model assumed poll errors weren't correlated between states, which is just obviously wrong and an embarrassingly basic mistake to make. I have no idea how he managed to become a professor at Princeton.
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Old 07-10-2020, 08:25 PM   #1440
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

august 18th of this year = 100th year of 19th amendment (women's suffrage)

vp announcement "after august 15th" is 9c on PI
august 9th to 15th is 46c

seems like biden can afford to wait, but he has committed to an "early august" deadline

obama chose biden on august 23rd

prolly too speculative to fire, but am making a mental note
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Old 07-10-2020, 09:43 PM   #1441
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

2016 was strange.. michigan/wisconsin and at least one non-key state (iowa) were gigantic outliers. HRC screwed that up really badly

2016 was supposed to come down to florida/penn... republicans need both, dems need one of them... and ex-mich/wisc missing the polls by massive amount, that is what happens.

trump is pretty much dead i think... but i understand polls were wrong in 2016, long time till november etc. etc.

what do people think of 12% chance trump drops out by the end of halloween night?....... is trump going to stick around if he knows he will lose? complain about cheating/rigged/etc.? or will he bow out after RNC convention?.. i think the market price of 12% is really really enticing. but alot of people think it should be zero for voluntary withdrawal (some chance of health/death/crime/etc/etc.)
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Old 07-10-2020, 11:16 PM   #1442
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Trump absolutely never quits until it's 100% he's going to lose because he has a lot of legal troubles to look forward to when Barr and co stop controlling the DOJ and he can't protect himself with the Presidency

At that point I think it fits his narrative more than quitting to claim it's rigged by [the deep state, illegal immigrants voting, the DNC rigging absentee ballots] or whatever his excuse of choice with no evidence is I think he has a tantrum and declares victory and drops out sometimes but nowhere near 12%

He's probably 1% or so to die before the election between covid and being old/overweight, but i'd be surprised if he isn't still the nominee and running on election day more than 2-5% of the time or so, I think by far the 'obvious' Biden just beats Trump in the election is the most likely outcome barring major changes between now and then

Polling misses in either direction will obv likely be correlated again, but one would assume it's unlikely to be outside the margin of error, i'd expect the result to be within 2.5% of final polling in either direction more likely than not still - the main info we're missing is where will the polling be 3 months and change from now and what does voter turnout/enthusiasm look like

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Old 07-10-2020, 11:44 PM   #1443
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Trump commutes Roger Stone's sentence, when Stone committed his crimes to protect Trump

So that's some fun corruption for today it's sad that at this point all that will come of it is 'oh it's another couple days of negative news cycle for Trump'

Hilarious that he claimed he would drain the swamp and the most generous way we could look at this is he's using pardon powers for a friend rather than a co-conspirator

Naturally it's a commutation not a pardon too so Stone can't be compelled to testify

Obv Presidential pardons need to be reworked in the future so that Presidents can't pardon people they have a personal relationship with
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Old Yesterday, 05:24 PM   #1444
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

This is why Demings won't be VP.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...-police-356573
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Old Yesterday, 07:03 PM   #1445
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Yeah nominating a police chief in the 2020 climate on the D side seems super questionable I doubt there are very many police chiefs in the US who don't have some questionable stuff in their history if you look hard enough

Prosecutors have the same issue, being an immoral authoritarian finally being a minus on at least the Dem side of American politics is nice

When Kamala first announced I remember posting she looks perfect on paper but I could never really trust a prosecutor, same goes for a police chief

I'm holding out hope for Warren but I think Biden will go lower profile given how far ahead he is and pick whoever the female equivalent of Tim Kaine or well, Joe Biden is as far as 'safe bland inoffensive' VP picks go

Only a few weeks to go til we have a VP, market has it Tier 1 Harris, Tier 2 Duckworth and Rice, Tier 3 Demings and Warren now with everyone else 5% equity or less in the markets now
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Old Yesterday, 07:30 PM   #1446
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Trump wore a mask today!
Obviously, he realizes how much trouble he's in.
Trump will never drop out. I don't know why this is even a thing.
First of all, a second term is about the only way he'll stay out of jail. As soon as he's out of office, he's going the Al Capone route. He'll be prosecuted for his taxes. A second term will give him a chance to manipulate the justice system enough, for that not to be a fear of his. The term
Draining the swamp is something more than meets the surface.
I was talking to a guy, not someone I hang out with, but a employee of my company. We were killing time. And he tells me about the hundreds of thousands of kids that are kidnapped by sex offenders each year in the country. And especially a disporportionally big number around the DC area. Trump was elected to stop this. Remember pizza gate guys. I was dumbfounded. It's something I never really looked into. So I wasn't sure about the numbers.
I just stood silent. But yeah, this is what Biden is up against. Of all people, Trump is supposed to be the guy. Lol. I guess all the pictures of him at Epstein's party's are fake. Guys, Trump's core supporters are non college graduates. That says it all.
So, the way things look, Florida, NC, Arizona and Wisconsin are still up for grabs. With Biden at 268 and Trump at 204.
At first glance it looks like Trump doesn't have a chance, but I think he's still very much alive.
Arizona, Florida and North Carolina are more red states and could very easily go to Trump. If Trump's numbers improve.
So that leaves Wisconsin. All Biden needs is one state. But can he hold on? Can he win Wisconsin, which is a very 50/50 state? I think Wisconsin is crucial for Biden. It's still all up in the air.
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Old Yesterday, 07:39 PM   #1447
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
Trump wore a mask today!
Obviously, he realizes how much trouble he's in.
Trump will never drop out. I don't know why this is even a thing.
First of all, a second term is about the only way he'll stay out of jail. As soon as he's out of office, he's going the Al Capone route. He'll be prosecuted for his taxes. A second term will give him a chance to manipulate the justice system enough, for that not to be a fear of his. The term
Draining the swamp is something more than meets the surface.
I was talking to a guy, not someone I hang out with, but a employee of my company. We were killing time. And he tells me about the hundreds of thousands of kids that are kidnapped by sex offenders each year in the country. And especially a disporportionally big number around the DC area. Trump was elected to stop this. Remember pizza gate guys. I was dumbfounded. It's something I never really looked into. So I wasn't sure about the numbers.
I just stood silent. But yeah, this is what Biden is up against. Of all people, Trump is supposed to be the guy. Lol. I guess all the pictures of him at Epstein's party's are fake. Guys, Trump's core supporters are non college graduates. That says it all.
So, the way things look, Florida, NC, Arizona and Wisconsin are still up for grabs. With Biden at 268 and Trump at 204.
At first glance it looks like Trump doesn't have a chance, but I think he's still very much alive.
Arizona, Florida and North Carolina are more red states and could very easily go to Trump. If Trump's numbers improve.
So that leaves Wisconsin. All Biden needs is one state. But can he hold on? Can he win Wisconsin, which is a very 50/50 state? I think Wisconsin is crucial for Biden. It's still all up in the air.
agreed. hopefully biden doesn't fall for the tarp

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Old Today, 10:22 PM   #1448
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Biden polling at +5 in Texas now. Someone tell me why I shouldn’t put my life savings on Biden -150 or Democrat winner -180?
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Old Today, 10:26 PM   #1449
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

The models had Hillary at around 80% to win, and she wasn’t even polling as well as Biden.
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