Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008
Just ran across a Fox news article that I thought very interesting.
I have only gotten interested in betting on politics this election cycle. Never heard of this guy.
A certain Stony Brook professor named, wait for it, Helmut Norpoth says, according to his model, Trump's chance of winning the election is 91 percent.
It's based on the primaries. And Biden didn't do well in the primaries. Until South Carolina, that is.
He's supposed to have, or his model, correctly predicted 25 out of 27 elections.
There are a bunch of moronic models that say stuff like this that aren't worth anything. This model is utter garbage, I could probably make a better model in an hour. Anything that has Trump over 90% to win right now is even more laughable than if I were to say Biden is 99% to win right now (he's a favourite sure but obv not 99% right now)
Last cycle there were models that had Hillary at 99.x% when she was 70-75% or so as a fair price given she was up 4ish in the polls and won the popular vote by 2.6% but ran bad in the key swing states (and also made some campaigning errors like ignoring the midwest)
You can also find models that say trump can't get re-elected with his current approval rate or unemployment or he can't lose with the stockmarket high or whatever else this is a fairly unique election in that Trump is a historical-levels hated and loved incumbent by his opposition and base, there's a once in a hundred years pandemic going on, the mass unemployment while stock prices keep being pumped artificially and so on
What matters are Trump's numbers in PA/MI/WI and to a lesser extent in AZ NC FL and places like NH but the Midwest is the battleground on which the election will be decided
The only other factors that matter are enthusiasm levels for turnout, whether there is a realistic chance of Trump outright cheating beyond basic voter supression which is built into every cycle and whether there are obstacles that would prevent turnout levels from hitting 55% or so (once it hits 55-57% or so, Trump is toast)
Betting on politics being immoral when you're a ****ing Trump supporter who thinks racism is the natural way things are and should be is laughable btw lvr - I do agree in general with you though that the lost utility of tying up money for months for futures for a single digit ROI is usually a bad idea, but i'm pretty convinced I have a double digit ROI here and my bankroll's at a point where it won't miss the low five figs I have on so far - if I end up whacking a lot of money on the election though it'll be much closer to the election
In my opinion Trump is about 25% to win atm due to election still being just under 4 months out, market has him at 36% or so right now but if the numbers are the same in a months time it'll be down to 20 or so imo, I doubt market moves Trump much above $3 until at least a few weeks out from the election no matter what the numbers say. If it's the same on election day though with his numbers he's drawing basically dead, there is not going to be a 9% polling error miss. 2% is likely, 5% is possible, once leads are approaching the 10% range in key swing states it's way outside the margin of error barring any major major issues with turnout.
Trump also shot himself in the foot a bit with the attacks on absentee ballots, since his supporters skew older they're normally quite likely to use absentee ballots but with his attacks on them his voters won't want to seem 'disloyal' to Trump and more will vote in person/less will absentee vote, which means some may forget to on the day or whatever. I don't think it'll cost him much but I do think it'll cost him over 0.1% of the vote overall - it'll improve his election night numbers at the expense of final numbers, maybe laying the platform for him to claim the election was rigged without any supporting evidence when Biden outperforms him among absentee ballots, because he basically told his supporters absentee voting is a hoax or whatever.
A lot can change between now and election day but i'm
Tried to talk a (granted rich) non sports betting friend out of betting 10k on Trump today and failed because he consumes too much alt-right media and is convinced Biden has no chance. The casual money's in the market though, this guy is sharp when it comes to buying stock but has no idea what he's doing when it comes to sports betting
Starting to get real in the next few weeks with conventions and VP picks. Let's see whether it shakes up the race, at this point time is Trump's enemy, he needs to change the narrative, energize his base, win over moderates and depress turnout among the Dem base simultaneously over the next few months