The big knock on Rice as VP is that she's never run for any elected office. Politics is a skill, and she has zero experience. Can she hold her own in a debate? Will she be a gaffe machine? What skeletons are in her closet?

The GOP is convinced she somehow lied about Benghazi. I'm not sure that's such a negative, since the bar for a scandal is much higher than it used to be, and she might rope-a-dope the opposition into relitigating that nothingburger.

Congress looked into Benghazi 54282432348 times and found no wrongdoing I can't imagine re-litigating Benghazi is a winning strat for them especially with Covid, mass unemployment, racial unrest and the possibility the GOP will be embroiled in a national security scandal if it turns out Trump did know about Russia offering and paying bounties to kill American soldiers and did nothing about it while Trump called Russia out friend etc

Obv Duckworth is a POC, she's half Asian and looks more Asian than white, not that being a minority is a pre-requisite although it basically is given the nominee is an old straight white guy. I also feel like even though Duckworth is a war wounded vet her being 'disabled' may be something the GOP use to claim she projects weakness, even though she literally lost limbs serving in the American military nothing stopped them from calling John Kerry a coward and so forth when he was a Vietnam vet running against a guy who ran away from the chance to serve.

I feel like Rice is pretty heavily vetted given her history serving under Obama etc, if the GOP had anything they could use to embarrass her/Obama they probably would have used it by now

Harris has Willie Brown and being a 'tough on crime' hypocritical prosecutor working against her while she's a very strong debater she gives off a sociopath vibe unlike any of the other VP candidates imo, i'm much happier with Biden as the nominee than Harris and i'm not a Biden guy at all on the issues, but as a human being it's pretty clear he's a decent guy, Harris does not strike me as a good human being at all and that worries me. Granted the other side has Trump and Pence and neither of them are good people at all and Trump is almost certainly the most narcissistic and dishonest person to be elected in America or at least in the modern era

I'm really not sure what Biden should do tactically speaking. I have no idea if Demings has skeletons but as an ex police chief if she does they'll be terrible so if he goes that way he needs to vet her hard. Biden's team needs to be sure his VP pick is as clean as Obama was etc and beyond that it shouldn't really matter as long as they're not a gaffe machine

I'm legitimately curious whether the Dems are sitting on an October Surprise level scandal for Trump. Hillary clearly made a huge mistake releasing the grab them by the pussy tape as soon as she did in hindsight, she should have dropped it on election week, the outrage had died down a bit by election day.

If the Dems have an N-word tape or equivalent they should sit on it until the week of the election so it's fresh in the mind of voters to boost turnout on the D side and depress it among conservative-leaning moderates

I don't think Trump has the discipline to not use anything he gets on Biden immediately, he tried to fake the Ukraine/Burisma/Hunter scandal and got caught, the Tara Reade allegations aren't very credible at all given her history of writing weird essays about how erotic Vladimir Putin is and structuring her story in a way to ensure it can't be disproved by not stating any specific dates etc and remaining vague enough that Biden can't show he was in another city or whatever. Trump needs to get his approval ratings up and depress leftist turnout for Biden to win, i'm just struggling to see how he does it. Ranting about confederate statues isn't going to do it. We're less than four months out now. Next month at the conventions is probably the next chance to move the needle in any significant way if he can somehow be Presidential and have good news on, well, anything to share with the nation

At this point Biden's doing the smart thing and basically just staying out of the way while offering 'America needs a leader/uniter' rhetoric. No reason to take risks yet unless it gets a lot closer and campaign heavily in the midwest + obviously the other key swing states as well

Tucker Carlson tried to suggest that Duckworth hates America.
Have you guys seen the latest Trump campaign commercial?
It's a mix of Will Horton and Big Brother. Bizzar. And the more bizzar part is it's being aired on MSNBC and CNN. Good luck with that. In my opinion, Trump is using a losing strategy.

So if Tucker Carlson is attacking Duckworth, that means the Republican's are afraid of her.
So the smart money would be for Duckworth. Oh, excuse mia. Sharp money.

Hey guys,

First time posting on this site. I'd like to place a $50K bet on the presidential election this year and am looking for a safe place to do it, where it's A) safe and easy to place the bet and B) reliable and easy to transfer the money + winnings out after I win.

I've been looking into the oversees sportsbooks Bovada, Bookmaker, Mybookie, etc. but all seem to have their complexities. Thought someone might be able to point me in the right direction.

I'm taking Biden + (whoever) over Bunker Boy and Grandma's Husband. Trump is an absolute D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R and his presidency is a complete **** show. Odds are looking good now with Kanye distraction and FOX news delusions.

If you're American, your options are going to be very limited. Heritage Sports is trustworthy, as is Bovada. But most of these books are going to have pre-set limits of $500 for a wager, though you can make a special request for a larger bet. Easiest way to get the money to these place is with Bitcoin, especially if you're trying to send 5 figures. Pinnacle takes higher bets, but you'd need an agent to place your bet for you, and I won't even pretend to know how you start that process.
If you're connected with higher stakes gamblers, generally in Vegas, you could probably find someone to book a $50K wager privately, but you're gonna need someone to vouch for you, plus put the cash up in escrow.
Good luck. Hope you win.

Bookmaker has 20k limits on the individual winner of the election and 10k limits on the winning party. They'll also move the line some marginal amount for a new account and you can instantly re-bet at the new odds. You'd have no problem getting down 50k. I wouldn't even think about Bovada or Heritage for this guy.

I don't really think it is all that controversial to say that at the very least, Susan Rice deceived the public in her interviews on Benghazi. Whether she outright lied...I think yes, but I guess that is in the eye of the beholder. She went on every Sunday morning show and said that the recent Benghazi assault was likely a "spontaneous attack" spurred on by a youtube video.

This was, I suppose, a plausible theory as the videotape had led to some protests elsewhere...but it was also the direct opposite of our best assessment at the time, and in fact, the Libyan government was already talking about this being premeditated. We now know that the well-coordinated attack had nothing at all to do with the videotape, and people were rightfully skeptical of this from the get go.

Anyway, Benghazi is what it is. Susan Rice was the favorite to be named Secretary of State to replace Hillary after the 2012 election, and withdrew her name from consideration because the Benghazi interviews were going to make her nomination fight extremely bitter if not kill it completely.

The reason why Rice is godawful as a candidate is a lot more than Benghazi, though. It's that she represents Donald Trump's exaggerated boogeyman of a swamp of DC elites who are looking out for themselves and not for the "regular guy."

A quick pause to reflect on this strategy -- this attack worked brilliantly against Hillary, a very unpopular politician in her own right, and is falling on its face in attacking Biden, a not-unpopular politician. The reasons for this attack failing are many, and maybe the single biggest reason is that voters simply don't have the bandwidth to even care about Joe Biden right now. Too much other **** going on in the world. And their thoughts on him seem to be something along the lines of "generic old guy Democrat who isn't Donald Trump."

So how does Rice fit into this? Well the VP pick is going to define "generic old guy Democrat" Biden for a lot of voters, as it is his first big campaign decision that people will actually hear about. His choice will become instantly known and talked about, and will be a reflection of how he wants to run for President.

So here is what Rice brings as a potential definition of Joe Biden: she is a career bureaucrat. She lives in a posh $4.5m mansion in Washington DC. She's never run for office, and wimped out of running in Maine (probably would've been clobbered). Her engagement to her news producer husband was written up in the NY Times. Her children hyphenate their last names (one of her children is a gigantic Trumper). Her parents both have Wikipedia pages. She went to elite schools.

This is like the direct opposite of the campaign that Biden should want to run. People really do not like Trump and people don't care for Biden either -- but what voters REALLY do not like are unelected bureaucrats operating in Washington DC. Voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are yearning for Susan Rice?

Literally your only job in picking a VP is to pick a good leader who doesn't hurt generic old guy Joe Biden as he saunters into November and clobbers uber-unpopular Trump. It'd be insane to bring a person like Rice onto the ticket as not only your VP, but as the bleeping heir apparent of the Democrat party. It suddenly injects all sorts of risks, and the Trump attacks that are currently failing may take on a whole new life as voters start to look at Joe a lot differently.

Excellent. I've never been on Bookmaker and was unaware they'd take such large bets.

I would assess the VP odds like so:

35% Kamala
I think she is a weak frontrunner. There are a lot of drawbacks here, and I personally can't stand her. But I don't think she would hurt Joe too, too much. I think she can fundraise and she is a bit of a "chameleon" politician in that she'll say whatever it is you want her to say. Seems to be a personal connection here, even in spite of the debate attacks. She checks a lot of the VP boxes. The risk you face with her is that voters (many of whom already have strong views on her, and they're not great) see her for who she really is -- a ruthless ladder climber -- and start to feel negatively toward Joe as a result. Joe is running on a "I'm a good guy and I can fix this!" message, and you're gonna have to jam her square peg into that ronud hole with a hammer.

20% Demings
I basically am in love with Val Demings and think she is the perfect pick. She fits snugly with Joe's campaign. I wrote a whole article about it. But I'm at least self-aware enough to know that she is not a traditional pick, and definitely not the frontrunner. Biggest risk here is she doesn't make the final cut, because the Biden team is not seriously considering her (a very real possibility!). If she does make the final cut, I'd probably have her as the frontrunner. So these odds are very polarized to the Biden team taking her seriously.

18% Warren
I think people are way too dismissive of Warren. Her betting odds seem way too low compared to her real life odds. Yes, she also has a lot of drawbacks, and is therefore a bit of a longshot. But, Biden clearly likes her, and apparently asked her if she would be his running mate if he chose to run in 2016. She meshes the various strains of the D party together, and is very popular with AAs. She's clearly the most ready to be Pres of anyone he is considering (and I don't think it is close).

12% Duckworth
I think Duckworth is a GREAT pick for Joe on paper. Once you click off the articles about her life story and listen to her talk as a politician, it's a bit of a different story. I don't think she's a particularly gifted politician nor a gifted orator. We just had a great example of her major drawback this weekend when she answered the George Washington question. She flubbed it, and GOP seized on it immediately. Her biography fits the "do no harm" mantra to a large extent, but I think she is a bit unpolished for a largely media-centric campaigning role.

5% Michele Lushan-Grisham
Long shot, but I think a realistic one. Drawbacks here, but she brings health experience to the table in a time of pandemic. As the only Latina (reportedly) still in the running, she stands a solid chance of making any sort of final list.

3% Keisha Lance Bottoms
I think she's dominated by Val Demings, who brings a lot more strengths to the table. But she has been a loyal Biden soldier since the get go, and that could count for something. Her credentials are very light -- I think she would need another large event to happen in Atlanta where she can again demonstrate leadership to a national audience.

2% Susan Rice
As explained above, I think she is an awful fit for electoral politics in the year 2020 and the Biden team would be insane to pick her. But I am not the Biden team, and I can only assume rationality where it might not actually exist. Maybe Biden is just that big of a friend to Susan that he wants her for whatever reason.

2% Tammy Baldwin
She's a great pick -- except for her Senate seat. It would be a monumentally huge problem to give up her seat if Senate control is in the balance.

1% Gretchen Whitmer
Not much to like about her, but maybe things change and he needs to go all-in on some kind of upper midwest strategy.

2% Other
A few other names reportedly being considered, or maybe someone is being vetted that we don't know about. I don't take a longshot too seriously at this point in early July, but it could happen. And longshots frequently get named VP.

its pre george floyd, but in this thread these guys have warren >> abrams >> harris = demings >>>> klobachaur for winning %

their presidential model looks sorta reasonable https://www.ourprogress.org/

the conventional wisdom seems to be you must choose a POC that can run in 2024, but there's just as much merit in, as domer points out, choosing the most qualified and ready candidate, as well as one who appeals to minorities, and progressives. it's prolly in the dems best interest to be drawing from a wide field in 2024 and don't let the GOP chop down the obvious successor.

Domer - You make some good points here. It's amusing that we still focus on these single incident events as global deal-breakers, when literally we are deceived, lied to, manipulated and overall GASLIGHTED by Bunker Boy and Grandma's Husband every single day. It's become the norm.

Dems seem to find ways to hold to one another to these unbelievable high moral standards, and do everything possible to lose. Case in point: Al Frankin - great senator and as soon as pics emerge of him doing something inappropriate - resigns.

And we do everything possible to shoot ourselves in the foot...like supporting a slogan "Defund the Police," which is the equivalent of handing a bazooka over to the republicans to create fear around life with no police, as if they would literally be "Defunded" and left high and dry, resulting in a world of anarchy. Another example is self-proclaiming as a socialist. I mean, c'mon guys...get it right.

Biden shot himself in the foot when he so publically and emphatically "declared" that he was choosing a woman as VP. I mean, c'mon. Why? Why not say, "I'm considering a strong candidate pool of women, but ultimately I'm going to pick the VP that I feel is going to add the most value for the country...period...end of story." I think he's trying too hard to get elected, evidenced by making these decisions based on optics alone.

I do agree with Elizabeth Warren as a strong frontrunner. She's got the vibrance that Biden doesn't have and gets people excited. She'll draw that unexcited left that loves her and Bernie and won't come across as too "Scary" in the VP role.

Overall, they need to focus on getting in synch by rallying around unity and cut the damn buzzwords like "socialism," etc. Also, hit below the belt for a change.

Stop calling them Trump and Pence and use the Bunker Boy / Grandma's Mother (well at least the former) when referring to these idiots.

All I can say is that hopefully the Trump nightmare will be over soon.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum...ndents-1516244

Trumps strategy seems to be working. Maybe this guy is a genius after all.
Sort of.
Republicans seem to agree with his decisive rhetoric and are rallying behind him.
But he's losing Independent voters.
Is he gambling that enough independent voters will come back to him in four months time?
It just might work. But I think for it to work, the pandemic has to subside and he has to look like he's doing a good job combating it. Which I don't see happening in four months.
To the contrary. It's getting out of control in important states like Florida and Arizona.
And he's continuing to bungle it big time. I think he just can't help himself.
Trump will be Trump.

Edit: this election should be in the revised edition of Mason's book, "the history of gambling".

Double Edit:
A poster recently said that he believed that a lot of the people surveyed aren't telling the truth about their support of Trumps out of shame. Do you guys look at some of the comments made on Yahoo? And some of the comments made on this website even?
People saying all types of twisted, dark things, like Floyed was a thug and deserved to die. Maybe this thought was true four years ago, but those day's are gone. Nobody's holding back on how they really feel anymore. Trump has empowered them.

Impeachment + global pandemic + economic crisis (worstening) + civil disorder + no-where-to-be-found-denial-of-science leadership style = Trump's ultimate demise. With the lack of awareness and denial of reality, there's no coming back from that. No spinning this stuff.

He pulled off a miracle in 2016. The country won't let it happen again.

As lackluster a people might be about Biden, Trump will draw out more voters against him that for him.

I'm also seeing his failing approach being acknowledged by his own advisors - people like Karl Rove, who are long-time conservatives. Trump is just unable to get out of his own way.

So for me, this is an easy bet. I'm going to lose in taxes ultimately so why not take some easy money here and get the best odds possible.

Thanks everyone for the advice. I'll try Bookmaker. Hopefully I can get comfortable enough with them to place a bet there.

The biggest fear I have actually is not losing, it's winning and not being able to get my money out. Can't let that happen.

Bookermaker is one of, if not the most, trusted books out there.

more great comments, thanks

yes, this is not 2016.. almost everything is different.... i do think trump's support might be a little understated, but in the 1%-2% range...... no big surprise this time. people didn't know trump last time. they know him now. not running against hillary clinton. FBI won't be getting involved in the last week this time. i'd say without FBI action, HRC would have won.

trump seems to have stabilized in betting markets.... what is that? kanye west? 4th of July? insanity of some of the progressive's actions these days?.. kanye, while not running and not actually having long-term effect, changed the psychology i think

i'm thinking from here until fairly late in the race that the republicans should be at least 30% to win.. at 40% (juice-adjusted) right now

mark my words...... trump is going to be abandoned by R's senators and house members.

only way R's can keep the senate and apparently they care alot about it.... basically the senate is the way they keep D's from implementing policies. R's don't even care that much about their own policies, just blocking D's initiatives. i read that a couple of places in last week.

no news = good news for trump (altho if we were closer to election no news = good news for biden if hes up 8 in the polls. for now it stops the bleeding)

also jobs reports was decent. economic recovery path is trump's best (only?) path

Have you tried pokershares they'd probably take it via btc if you messaged them i got 10k on and they offered me another 20 when I contacted them although price had moved by then so I passed on the extra

Re trump stabilising I think he's just stopped deteriorating in the polls plus a chance if Kanye is serious about getting on ballots which I doubt he might siphon off 1 percent of the black vote or something and I guess a few writeins but I doubt he'll have an impact unless he's actually on ballots in states that matter

If Kanye actually wants to be on the ballot in swing states, then the deadlines and requirements are as follows;

North Carolina, DEADLINE PASSED
Florida, July 15th, (132,781 signatures required)
Michigan, July 16th (12,000 signatures required)
Pennsylvania, August 3rd (5,000 signatures required)
Wisconsin, August 4th (2,000 signatures required)
Arizona, September 4th (37,769 signatures required)

If we're honest here, if Kanye wants to deliver 4 more years to Trump, he need only concentrate efforts at getting on the ballot in the latter 3 states listed. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania requirements for ballot access are stunningly low. The flip side of that is that there'll be a ton of candidates on the ballots as a result.

I still don't think Kanye qualifies for any ballots but if he's trying to give Trump another term MI/WI/PA and campaign to get a few percent from young/black voters is what he should do - i'm not sure Kanye or Kim are remotely prepared for the hatred he will get from the black community and Hollywood if they give Trump a second term though by siphoning off left leaning votes in a couple swing states only, they will be shunned - if it was a serious effort across 50 states he might be able to claim he's running to win but if he only qualifies in ballots in a couple swing states it's just siphoning off not Trump votes from Biden to help Trump

I think the hype behind this passes within a couple weeks and he quietly moves on from 'running for President' without qualifying for any ballots although the Rs will probably be doing everything in their power to ensure he gets on ballots if he tries to the same way they basically fund the Green party

Ranked choice voting is the solution at that point anyone can run for President right or left leaning or moderate or anything else without playing spoiler and voters rank their candidates in order of choice.

I struggle to believe that West would take any black votes away from Biden.
If anything, he would take away the few black votes Trump has.
Who hasn't seen the images of him with the MAGA hat in the white house, cuddling with Trump?
His right leaning opinions are well documented by now.
Of course, there are enough people I guess who don't pay attention.
What do I know?

Lets stop wasting words on the Kanye West publicity stunt - it's a joke. He and Trump share what I'll call blind narcissistic dimwittedness. I do think it would be pretty entertaining to watch Biden, Trump, and Kanye debate each other on the stage. With Biden gaffing every other word, Trump celebrating the Hueege wall he's built, and Kanye channeling the Yeezey-God to spit out ridiculous conspiracy. It would be an absolute spectacle and take the highest position of the land to an all-time rock bottom.

I mean the whole thing is such a shitshow. Is this really the best we can do? I'm 60/40 that I could do a better job than these guys and I'm sure some of you feel the same way.

On another note, I listened to Val Demings last night for a while. She's a badass. Tough, succinct, direct, smart, and overall very impressive. She would slot in well as VP.

She would absolutely DESTROY Grandma's Husband on the debate state. And those debates will be particularly important this time around, given the reality TV element and lack of sports/entertainment going on. Viewability will be at an all-time high for debates...no doubt about it.

New piece in the Washington Post today.
Headline. " America is running short on masks, gowns and gloves. Again ".

What has Trump and his administration been doing all this time?