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Old 07-01-2020, 03:24 AM   #1351
vinivici9586
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by LektorAJ View Post
From overseas, I'm having trouble describing someone who voted Clinton in 2016 (or decided not to vote) and is going to vote Trump this time. Can some of you describe people you know like that and what their reasons are?
ummm. ppl who like the economy. or ppl who think the libs have gone too far
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Old 07-01-2020, 07:26 AM   #1352
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

imagine wanting democrats to win

every single democrat run city sucks balls

25 most dangerous cities are democrat run

poorest cities are democrat run

what was that stat about republicans only having the poorest cities 8% of the time for the last 70 years?

black people die in blue states who control everything top down for the last 50 years yet it's the cops fault or white people

what a clown world
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Old 07-01-2020, 10:24 AM   #1353
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

All of the high income high quality of life cities in America are run by Dems basically

Red states like Kansas and Mississippi are net receivers of government funds blue states are net generators of wealth.

Red America lives off the hard work of the highly educated and wealthy blue America

Where do you live lvr if it's in a city shouldn't you be moving to rural Idaho or Kansas or Kentucky or Alabama to live in a Republican paradise

Oh wait all of the bottom performing states in almost every quality of life metric are the ones that vote Republican
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Old 07-01-2020, 10:27 AM   #1354
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by LektorAJ View Post
From overseas, I'm having trouble describing someone who voted Clinton in 2016 (or decided not to vote) and is going to vote Trump this time. Can some of you describe people you know like that and what their reasons are?
These people do not exist. Trump has lost some moderates who hated Clinton and decided to take a risk on him. A couple percent of his voters have died and been replaced with liberal 18-year-olds. He has gained virtually no one. I think pretty much the only way he can win is if someone hacks the voting machines.
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Old 07-01-2020, 11:11 AM   #1355
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I said I'd ban myself, but I just want to further backup some of the things Swoop said.
Land, or more specifically home ownership, is one of the biggest contributors to private wealth in this country. Around 76% of white Americans own their own home, while only around 46% of African Americans own a home.
Through home ownership, you can get a loan to open up your own business, a student loan for your children, etc.
My parents bought their house in a predominantly white neighborhood in 1976 for 36k. It is now estimated at around 900k.
It's a two family. When a real estate agent of ours brought over a black couple, way back when, to look at the apartment for rent, after they left, the neighbors came out. They yelled from across the street, "if you rent to N'rs, we'll burn your house down" . Needless to say, we rented the second floor to a white couple.

Red states have the biggest poverty rates.
Worst health.
Worst wealth.
Some red states have the life expectancy of third world countries.
Red America is a backwards country in itself, not only culturally, but in every imaginable respect.
Yes, blue states have a higher cost of living. Because they are so wealthy. And on average, people in Blue states earn so much more. Robust economy translates into higher living costs.

But yes, blue states have also failed black Americans. By putting them in cheap public housing, away from access to jobs, and of course, housing discrimination.
White America created the ghetto.

Ok, can I can myself again.
Goodbye
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Old 07-01-2020, 11:24 AM   #1356
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

i hope you're joking about the self ban nepeeme, would suck if you left
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Old 07-01-2020, 11:52 AM   #1357
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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i hope you're joking about the self ban nepeeme, would suck if you left
Rick, that's nice of you. Thanks.
I just found myself putting out information and then later analysing it. Didn't want to be putting out misinformation.

Ok. I'll just vett myself better in future before posting.

I'm back y'all!!
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Old 07-01-2020, 12:07 PM   #1358
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/...012%3A01%20a.m.

Wow, just as I was telling my own personal little backstory, this just came out in the Boston Globe. This is a total coincidence. I just opened up my Globe app now.

I think I need to cut back on subscriptions. Maybe I can use that money for sports betting?
Or maybe concentrate more on my work?
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Old 07-01-2020, 12:22 PM   #1359
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by vinivici9586 View Post
ummm. ppl who like the economy. or ppl who think the libs have gone too far
These are specifically people who voted Clinton last time or made an active decision not to vote who are saying this to you?

Maybe just my male perspective but I thought "libs gone too far" was when Clinton entered a debate where her big pre-prepared "gotcha" against Trump was that she'd discovered he thought it reasonable to ask someone employed as a professional beauty queen to stay in shape. Her perspective was so warped she led on that instead of plenty of the other things she could attack him on. Living in Europe though I'm maybe less sensitive to the race-based stuff though.
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Old 07-01-2020, 01:20 PM   #1360
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by vinivici9586 View Post
ummm. ppl who like the economy. or ppl who think the libs have gone too far
Wouldn't people who think the libs have gone too far have voted for trump or not voted in 2016? Economy has record unemployment while running record deficits if that's what ppl like
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Old 07-01-2020, 01:41 PM   #1361
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Wouldn't people who think the libs have gone too far have voted for trump or not voted in 2016? Economy has record unemployment while running record deficits if that's what ppl like
Sometimes when adults look at the economy they look at more variables than just who the president is... like maybe if there is a pandemic or not.

It is odd that you chose to attack a republican on high unemployment though. Repubs typically value low unemployment where dems typically value high unemployment via which side of the coin they are on for things like minimum wage, corporate tax rates, high income individual's tax rates, obamacare, business regulation & increasing/expanding government handouts.
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Old 07-01-2020, 02:08 PM   #1362
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by LektorAJ View Post
These are specifically people who voted Clinton last time or made an active decision not to vote who are saying this to you?

Maybe just my male perspective but I thought "libs gone too far" was when Clinton entered a debate where her big pre-prepared "gotcha" against Trump was that she'd discovered he thought it reasonable to ask someone employed as a professional beauty queen to stay in shape. Her perspective was so warped she led on that instead of plenty of the other things she could attack him on. Living in Europe though I'm maybe less sensitive to the race-based stuff though.
to be clear, i don't know any clinton -> trump voters. this is just my guess as to the two most likely reasons someone would switch.

agree that staying home is more likely than a switch.
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Old 07-01-2020, 03:23 PM   #1363
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

i agree on the clinton vs. trump voters........

trump has lost tons of voters. hasn't picked up very many. i would argue trump will have picked virtually none....... i would think he's likely to lose alot of active military votes. and if he started to lose retired military, look out below

4 things: 1) biden is so much more likeable than hillary; 2) trump had a curiousity factor in 2016. now it's more like a nightmare factor; 3) biden will probably actually campaign in wisconsin and michigan; 4) biden is from scranton, pa.

disclaimer: lots of time left, polls were wrong in 2016, voter suppression/supreme court chicanery etc...
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Old 07-01-2020, 03:26 PM   #1364
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by critiakx2 View Post
Wouldn't people who think the libs have gone too far have voted for trump or not voted in 2016? Economy has record unemployment while running record deficits if that's what ppl like
i think liberals are going way way too far and it's a joke the kid glove treatment they get from the media ........ but i'd take anything over trump. 4 more years of trump might be irreversible. pence is fine (for me.. maybe not if you want abortion rights though)
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Old 07-01-2020, 04:26 PM   #1365
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie View Post
i agree on the clinton vs. trump voters........

trump has lost tons of voters. hasn't picked up very many. i would argue trump will have picked virtually none....... i would think he's likely to lose alot of active military votes. and if he started to lose retired military, look out below

4 things: 1) biden is so much more likeable than hillary; 2) trump had a curiousity factor in 2016. now it's more like a nightmare factor; 3) biden will probably actually campaign in wisconsin and michigan; 4) biden is from scranton, pa.

disclaimer: lots of time left, polls were wrong in 2016, voter suppression/supreme court chicanery etc...
curiosity factor is underrated. 2016 was good conditions for a change candidate and trump was change on 2 levels (other party and anti establishment)

i think he might also be inherently better as a a challenger candidate than an incumbent candidate. seems like he struggles with messaging beyond trolling the libs + stock market.
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Old 07-01-2020, 08:17 PM   #1366
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Not sure what exactly makes a half dead person with a penchant for putting his foot in his mouth/forgetting things like Biden “likeable”. I suppose Hillary is more unlikeable and arrogant/entitled, but that’s a pretty low bar for Biden to clear
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Old 07-01-2020, 08:20 PM   #1367
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Not sure what exactly makes a half dead person with a penchant for putting his foot in his mouth/forgetting things like Biden “likeable”. I suppose Hillary is more unlikeable and arrogant/entitled, but that’s a pretty low bar for Biden to clear
lol.
Who's half dead, Biden?
Trump can't drink a glass of water.
I bet Melania doesn't want to live in the White house because she's tired of changing Trump's adult diapers.

Edit: You Trumpsters are just too funny.
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Old 07-02-2020, 04:53 AM   #1368
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Red face Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Big move to Duckworth today in VP stakes. Rice clear end fav now demings drifts a bit

Biden's team probably betting Duckworth and rice as the Harris alternatives atm
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Old 07-02-2020, 10:57 AM   #1369
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

What about people changing from Trump to Biden have people met voters like that?
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Old 07-02-2020, 11:51 AM   #1370
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by bahbahmickey View Post
Sometimes when adults look at the economy they look at more variables than just who the president is... like maybe if there is a pandemic or not.
I think people look at the economy very basically: do I have a job? did I take a paycut or get a raise? In 2010 voters blamed democrats for high unemployment and deficits despite a major holdover from the 2008 crash. People who lost their job are not going to give the government a pass for the pandemic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie View Post
i agree on the clinton vs. trump voters........

trump has lost tons of voters. hasn't picked up very many. i would argue trump will have picked virtually none....... i would think he's likely to lose alot of active military votes. and if he started to lose retired military, look out below

4 things: 1) biden is so much more likeable than hillary; 2) trump had a curiousity factor in 2016. now it's more like a nightmare factor; 3) biden will probably actually campaign in wisconsin and michigan; 4) biden is from scranton, pa.

disclaimer: lots of time left, polls were wrong in 2016, voter suppression/supreme court chicanery etc...
I agree with this base case, though not sure how many voters trump has lost. A lot of reasons why someone would stay home for Clinton vs. Trump but vote for Biden vs. Trump imo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ View Post
What about people changing from Trump to Biden have people met voters like that?
I don't know anyone who has changed from Trump to Biden or vice-versa. I know a few who voted for McMullin but not sure where they're landing this time.
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Old 07-02-2020, 01:21 PM   #1371
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

We all read how some of us here, just a few months ago, were so certain Trump would win.
I'll go on record to say Biden can only lose if the election is rigged.
Because enough people, who didn't vote last time, have now seen enough of Trump. Nothing Trump does from here on out will change their vote.
Even if Trump doesn't lose any voters, he's still going to lose.
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Old 07-02-2020, 03:21 PM   #1372
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

On one hand cases keep going up on the other hand it does kind of feel like there has to be some reversion to the mean here. At some point. I mean, dems are trading at 20c to win by >280 electoral votes.

This is only winning by 276

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Old 07-02-2020, 04:13 PM   #1373
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

That map looks really aggressive to begin with, though if Biden wins TX/AZ/GA I'd imagine he's probably winning IN too.

State level dem ohio +120 has better much odds than the GE, seems hard to believe Biden loses Ohio and wins GE. Similar thoughts on AZ repub +130, hard to see Trump winning general without AZ but could carry it in a loss.
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Old 07-02-2020, 04:55 PM   #1374
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

iowa falls before indiana and probably texas. agree with the premise that that map should be a top 10% outcome, not top 20%.

economist model has texas - > alaska - > south carolina - > missouri -> mississippi -> louisiana - > indiana

kind of amazing that BO carried it in 2008
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Old 07-02-2020, 05:13 PM   #1375
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

what's more likely? dems lose minnesota or republicans lose texas, ohio, and georgia?
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