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Old 06-29-2020, 02:56 PM   #1326
rivercitybirdie
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

some great insight here............ thank you

i like "trump isn't the candidate on election day", but as far as i can tell all betting markets are winning/losing nomination in august at R convention..

as per florida, that was a good quasi-arb by on poster.

if biden wins florida it is all over. trump needs to run basically all other swing and battleground states.

2016 election the math was R need florida AND penn. D's need ONE OF THEM.. of course, wisconsin and michigan ruined that math. but basically hillary completely blew those states. with same popular vote margin nationally as 2016, i'd think biden wins those states.
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Old 06-29-2020, 09:38 PM   #1327
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Bolton said that Trump is dangerous and must go. Bolton for Pete's sake. Now Carly Fiorina, who just 3 years ago was running for the Republican nomination, is going to vote for Biden. You must stop and ask yourself, why? At the end, there will only be 2 people in America it seems who'll stick with Trump till the end.
Lol Fiorina was never conservative. Youre way better off harping on why the Bush family endorsed Gary Johnson
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Old 06-30-2020, 01:17 AM   #1328
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Spade Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Lol never conservative

She was ted cruzs running mate ffs Ted Cruz is more of a conservative than Donald Trump on policy
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Old 06-30-2020, 09:08 AM   #1329
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Swoop, give Steelers a break. He didn't know Fiorina was Ted Cruz's running mate.
He was never briefed.
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Old 06-30-2020, 09:14 AM   #1330
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

So when Biden picks some far left black woman to be his running mate, were supposed to assume that their politics are the same? Lol no.

Fiorina was awful in 16. Her endorsing Biden would be a good thing for Trump, if anyone actually cared about her endorsement at all. But Im glad you finally nailed Trump on something. Hes surely finished now!
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Old 06-30-2020, 09:45 AM   #1331
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Nobody cares about Carly Fiorina.

The bad news stories for trump in the past two weeks that decreased his equity of winning are

His ready made attack ad statement that he asked for coronavirus testing to be slowed during the outbreak to make himself look better by lowering the number of cases

The covid outbreak continues to worsen and the USA numbers are worse than any other first world country due to botched response.

Russia paying the Taliban to murder American soldiers trump briefed about it and did nothing and in fact was lobbying to re add Russia to g7 after the fact

The covid asking to slow testing and doing nothing will continue to hurt as the outbreak continues to spread as other countries get their numbers down or even eliminate covid in their borders. As it spreads the economy continues to take a hit as states are forced to choose between locking down or not locking down and seeing more people die or get seriously ill.

Russia putting bounties on American soldiers then paying those bounties as American soldiers were murdered surely hurts him with some support the troops conservatives. Most will vote for him anyway but any lost vote over the issue is one he isn't ever getting back and trump is behind right now he needs to be gaining votes not losing them. I don't see how anyone can still support trump after he was briefed about American soldiers being murdered by Russia and literally did nothing about it. Imagine the outrage on the right if we replace trump with Obama or Hillary doing nothing about bounties being paid by a country to the Taliban to murder American troops being collected.

Obv he can still win but his odds are decreasing by the day he's out to +200 on Betfair as of earlier this evening when I looked. Bad poll numbers continue to come in and every day that passes is one day he can't get back and one day closer to the election. He needs to change the narrative and we're about to tick over into July. By August it's the conventions and the numbers are getting real. Today's news cycle was in addition to the above trump tweeted a video of his supporter yelling white paper and didn't take it down for 3 hours becuase he was too busy golfing for his staff to reach him

Trump's position isn't unrecoverable yet but it's very close to unrecoverable. If his numbers are the same as now by mid september he is toast. His unfavourables put him on par with presidents who weren't reelected not the presidents that were reelected and he's running out of time to change that.
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Old 06-30-2020, 10:04 AM   #1332
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

https://worldpopulationreview.com/st...ating-by-state


Guys, forget about who we like or who we want to be elected.
That's silliness. Our personal preferences and wishful thinking, Steelers, has nothing to do with reality.
Heres a list of state by state approval ratings for Trump that might be more of an indicator than polls.
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Old 06-30-2020, 10:25 AM   #1333
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I wish someone with some expertise could interpret these numbers for us.
What's the threshold for Trump winning a state?
I.mean, he's a sure loser, I think the consensus would be, in Delaware, where he has a approval rating of 43%. In Iowa, where he's ahead in the polls, he has a approval rating of 46% and in Minnesota, where he looks like a likely loser, according to the polls, he also is at 46%.

Edit: his latest numbers in Iowa show only a slight edge over Biden.
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:33 PM   #1334
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

You have to put his approval numbers next to Biden's in each state as some voters will either approve of both ot disapprove of both and split between them it's the regular voters that approve of one candidate and disapprove of the other whose votes are locked in

Trump did better than Hillary among voters who disliked both candidates but currently Biden is ahead in the group that dislikes both which is something trump would need to change to have a chance of winning reelection
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:56 PM   #1335
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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You have to put his approval numbers next to Biden's in each state as some voters will either approve of both ot disapprove of both and split between them it's the regular voters that approve of one candidate and disapprove of the other whose votes are locked in

Trump did better than Hillary among voters who disliked both candidates but currently Biden is ahead in the group that dislikes both which is something trump would need to change to have a chance of winning reelection
That's a good point. What I tried to do, but didn't get very far, and dropped it for the time being, is compare Trumps numbers to Obamas. But I don't know if that makes any sense. Especially since the fact that Obama was so much more popular than Trump.
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Old 06-30-2020, 01:04 PM   #1336
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I guess I'm not the smartest guy in the room. I don't get the bounty thing. It doesn't make any sense to me.
Weren't the Taliban trying to kill Americans all along?
Why would Russia have to incentivize them?

But if it's true that Russia did that, and Trump ignored it, that's a crime against the office. And if Republicans don't care, that's even worse. It would cement what I've been thinking all along. This is no longer a conservative party, but a party of Trump. Sorry if I'm being controversial, but a neo-fascist party. Trump was never a conservative.
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Old 06-30-2020, 01:37 PM   #1337
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Oh, wtf kind of response was that from Trump?
I wasn't breifed?
Give me a break. If it's true, and you didn't know about it. That's a complete failure across the board. And the whole administration needs to resign.
Bunch of bozo's.
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Old 06-30-2020, 03:05 PM   #1338
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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You have to put his approval numbers next to Biden's in each state as some voters will either approve of both ot disapprove of both and split between them it's the regular voters that approve of one candidate and disapprove of the other whose votes are locked in

Trump did better than Hillary among voters who disliked both candidates but currently Biden is ahead in the group that dislikes both which is something trump would need to change to have a chance of winning reelection

But after thinking about it for a while, how can Biden have an approval rating?
He's not in office. There's nothing to approve?

Be it as it may. I think we should only look at it state by state, as far as who's going to win the electoral college, and thus the presidency. Trump is such a polarizing figure, and so historically unpopular in Blue states, it's possible for him to win the election with a historically low approval rating.
The national approval rating only comes into play when determining who will win the popular vote.
It's sort of like trying to figure out if a soccer team will score over or under.
You look at their average, being 2.6, and you put all your money on them.
And then you lose and wonder what went wrong. Well, they have a 2.6 average, because they scored 20 goals against the worst team. But they were shut out by all the other teams. Averages can sometimes be deceiving.
In other words, Trumps overall national approval rating is very low, because it's so low in Blue states.
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Old 06-30-2020, 03:12 PM   #1339
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

According to a Galup I found from 2011, Obama had even worse approval ratings in red states, than Trump has in Blue states. And he won re-election handily.
In other words, everything I just said in the previous post might be wrong, and I should stop posting.
So this will probably be my last post here for a very long time.
Sad face.

Edit: I will go on a text fast of 40 days and 40 nights.
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Old 06-30-2020, 05:03 PM   #1340
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I took a flyer on Biden winning in Missouri at 19%. A new poll has Biden up by 2, though previous polls had Trump up by 4 and 8. In any case, none of them were high quality polls, so there's a lot of uncertainty there.

Obviously if Biden wins MO, it will be a massive rout, but this way offers better odds than the explicit EV markets.
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Old 06-30-2020, 06:24 PM   #1341
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I feel like Biden would flip a quirkier and lower stakes stare like Montana before Missouri
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Old 06-30-2020, 06:59 PM   #1342
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

trump is basically finished unless a huge amount changes. and alot of what needs to change is within trump's control, but he won't do it.

i see georgia just turned BLUE on predictit.org............. and now there are a bunch of states that are where ohio, iowa, georgia, (texas?) were 3 months ago.

looks like missouri, montana, alaska are now opening up for the dem's to have a reasonable chance ....... tennessee? utah? etc. etc.
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Old 06-30-2020, 07:01 PM   #1343
rivercitybirdie
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008 View Post
According to a Galup I found from 2011, Obama had even worse approval ratings in red states, than Trump has in Blue states. And he won re-election handily.
In other words, everything I just said in the previous post might be wrong, and I should stop posting.
So this will probably be my last post here for a very long time.
Sad face.

Edit: I will go on a text fast of 40 days and 40 nights.
obama is well-liked though. trump is not. obama's favorability/unfavorability had alot of swing. trump's doesn't ......

so that 10% of people who aren't sure till they're in the voting room would have been much more likely to vote for someone they liked like obama
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Old 06-30-2020, 07:12 PM   #1344
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Originally Posted by rivercitybirdie View Post
trump is basically finished unless a huge amount changes. and alot of what needs to change is within trump's control, but he won't do it.

i see georgia just turned BLUE on predictit.org............. and now there are a bunch of states that are where ohio, iowa, georgia, (texas?) were 3 months ago.

looks like missouri, montana, alaska are now opening up for the dem's to have a reasonable chance ....... tennessee? utah? etc. etc.
yeah that georgia price is incongruent with biden odds too. thinking about betting trump in FL, NC, GA, OH, IA & biden to win & maybe some longshot Biden states (not Texas).
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Old 06-30-2020, 08:32 PM   #1345
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

too much delusion in this thread lol

i wonder if you guys will end up moving to Canada this time
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Old 06-30-2020, 09:49 PM   #1346
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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too much delusion in this thread lol

i wonder if you guys will end up moving to Canada this time
Ivr coping as hard as ever. Threat to Trump is real.

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Old 07-01-2020, 12:32 AM   #1347
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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too much delusion in this thread lol

i wonder if you guys will end up moving to Canada this time
Put your money where your mouth is and post your 5 figures plus betslip on Trump

You portray yourself as a rich enough and successful sports bettor, if you legit think Trump wins reelection more than half the time you should be jumping all over the +192 right now on Betfair

Once again, Trump is of course live to re-election as he's the incumbent with four months left but he's a clear underdog and if you think otherwise you should be loading up. Nobody can look at the current polling showing red states close and the three midwest swing states Trump needs to win at Biden +9 and think that Trump is a favourite right now
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Old 07-01-2020, 01:41 AM   #1348
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

i see a poster alluding to this situation.

dem's odds of winning florida and winning the entire presidential election are fairly close (low to mid-60s)...

if dems win florida, then trump has to win ALL of north carolina, wisconsin, michigan, arizona, pennsylvania...............

just seems if dem's win florida, they should be 85%+ to win presidency

2 things,

1) not sure on the tiering of states as per dem's chances of winning.. of florida and those 5 other states, i would put florida 5th, with only NC behind it.

2) lots of time to go. polls could be wrong. state outcomes are at least moderately correlated....... BUT, this would have a hedge element anyway.

and in theory, you could bet this for alot of $$$$$.... you could do it on oddsmaker sites, not just p.org.

i've also seen "trump wins a state he didn't win in 2016" and "trump wins NH at about the same price"...but that's p.org, so limited $$$$$..... besides NH, where would trump have any shot at winning D state? maine? nevada? minnesota?.....
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Old 07-01-2020, 01:59 AM   #1349
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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too much delusion in this thread lol

i wonder if you guys will end up moving to Canada this time
delusion...... here's something to think about...

for 2020 endorsements.......

amongst current national senators and representitives, biden 185 (approx.) endorsements, trump 23......... those are ALL the national republicans endorsing trump, NOT CNN'S OPINION OF TRUMP..

same number for retired senators and reps...... biden has 81 endorsements. trump ZERO.
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Old 07-01-2020, 02:55 AM   #1350
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

From overseas, I'm having trouble describing someone who voted Clinton in 2016 (or decided not to vote) and is going to vote Trump this time. Can some of you describe people you know like that and what their reasons are?
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