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Old 06-20-2020, 11:51 PM   #1276
Nepeeme2008
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

"Crispus Attucks, go back to Africa, or we'll shoot!"

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Old 06-21-2020, 01:01 AM   #1277
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Um the last 3 major wars America was involved in were all started by Republican administrations

The last big military adventure under a dem admin was Vietnam and even there it technically started under Eisenhower although obv it was mostly LBJ

The last major wars abroad America got involved in started by a Democrat would have been ww2 and Korea under FDR and Truman right? I'm not counting Kosovo etc as an all out war, but at the very least the gulf war Afghanistan and Iraq were all started under Republican administrations (bush and bush jr)

Historically stuff that happened pre ww2 isn't relevant as the parties have switched stances on tons of issues since then, democrats were conservatives and Republicans were progressives in the early days

Also Steelers you seem to be a little bit of a racist dickhead since no one else has outright said so yet
yeah this is my point exactly, being a warhawk isn't party related but if you were to look at the grander scale of history you'd see that only recently has being aggro militarily been associated with the right instead of the left

if we remove the last 2 decades then the Democrats are the party of war, if we go back a little further they are the party of the south and segregation as well

things change and it's foolish to try to pin something like war on a specific party as a result
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Old 06-21-2020, 01:55 AM   #1278
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

You can attach hawkishness to conservatives though in general while liberals and libertarians tend to be less hawkish, it's just which party represents conservatives in America has changed over time

Trump isn't particularly hawkish for a right winger, which is one of his only good qualities. He could easily get us involved in a war through ego if reelected but it's more the neocon wing of the Republican party that love to start wars

Steelers you're a ****ing joke lol white genocide unless you live in certain parts of Africa you're a next level joker white people aren't oppressed at all in America or pretty much any first world country and it's ridiculous to suggest otherwise
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Old 06-21-2020, 04:19 PM   #1279
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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As long as you're making money in sports betting, or any other way, that's the most important thing I guess as far as education guess.
So, if you're doing good for yourself, then yeah, the next step should be to expand your knowledge and become a more understanding human being. Because, not to be offensive, but you sound like a school dropout dude.
It's actually embarrassing. Especially for someone who claims to belong to a group with higher IQ.
you don't live around minorities so how would you know?

it's easy to be compassionate with people when you live in a gated community all alone
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Old 06-21-2020, 04:21 PM   #1280
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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yeah this is my point exactly, being a warhawk isn't party related but if you were to look at the grander scale of history you'd see that only recently has being aggro militarily been associated with the right instead of the left

if we remove the last 2 decades then the Democrats are the party of war, if we go back a little further they are the party of the south and segregation as well

things change and it's foolish to try to pin something like war on a specific party as a result
but why are republicans perceived as war mongers then?

What is the difference between Obama , Trump and Bush?

Why is one viewed as God and the others are garbage?
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Old 06-21-2020, 04:32 PM   #1281
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I couldn't sleep last night. How could I have made such a huge omission yesterday.
I hope the gambling gods can forgive me.
Nick"the Greek "Dandalos. The greatest Greek to have ever lived.
RIP oh great one.

A gated community,lol. Well, actually, Ivr, your misconceptions about me are starting to appeal to me. Ye, and I'm a multimillionaire successful sports bettor and a wsop champion.
Ivr, you know what, I am not racist against you. It's not your fault you aren't Greek.

Now back to politics boys.

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Old 06-22-2020, 02:57 AM   #1282
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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but why are republicans perceived as war mongers then?

What is the difference between Obama , Trump and Bush?

Why is one viewed as God and the others are garbage?
i would have thought you of all people should be the first to acknowledge most people are surface level thinking idiots
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Old 06-22-2020, 03:41 AM   #1283
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

lvr is a prime example of the Dunning-Kruger effect

If we want to say what's the difference between the last three presidents, Obama is a fairly flawed moderate who didn't have any real personal scandals and implemented a bad but better than the previous system healthcare plan because the political right and Joe Lieberman tanked the public option which is necessary for a functioning healthcare policy that includes a mandate to have insurance. Did not start any wars, but did not finish Bush's wars either.

Bush was a warmonger who was asleep at the wheel for 9/11 then started two wars one of which was based on a lie which led to assorted war crimes and whose economic policies helped lead to the 2008 recession. On a personal level he didn't have substantial failings but on a policy level I don't think anyone can suggest he did well with either foreign or domestic policy.

Trump is a dumpster fire of a human being whose failed response to the Covid crises managed to somehow both tank the economy and lead to more Covid deaths than any other country in the world and has more personal and policy scandals than I could list in a thousand words.

In a paragraph or so we have speaks highly of dictators while attacking american allies, tried the blackmail Ukraine and got impeached over it, refuses to secure election system from Russian interference, all of his various cabinet members that have been fired or stepped down in disgrace, failed covid response, paid off pornstars (Daniels, McDougal etc) he was having affairs with, locking up kids/family separation, sexual assault allegations and alleged rape case (Carroll), tore up Iran deal meaning countries will be reluctant to trust America to live up to treaties they sign in future, failed to stop additional North Korean nuclear tests despite 'friendship' with Kim, completely subservient to Putin and demanded private meetings etc, Mueller investigation, lies about random easily disprovable stuff all the time and goes on unprofessional twitter rants at 1am including spreading fake news/lying, questionable pardons including the war crimes murderous navy Seal guy, Arpaio etc, banned trans people in the military while claiming to be pro-LGBT during campaign, assorted racism, nominated man accused of sexual assault to supreme court, ordered Michael Cohen to do a ton of illegal stuff which Cohen went to jail for, firing of assorted members of legal profession who are political enemies, all the Michael Flynn stuff ignoring advice not to hire him etc, everything to do with Betsy Devos and putting coal execs in charge of the EPA and all of his other swamp creatures after claiming to want to drain the swamp, close ties to Jeffrey Epstein and his murder or suicide while in custody, all of Bill Barr's various obstruction of justice, attacked his own AG Jeff Sessions for correctly recusing himself due to a conflict of interest, endorsed Roy Moore for Senate AFTER it was known he was a sexual predator, had the 'SS' assault protestors so he could take a photo op with a bible at a church that didn't want him there, the grab them by the pussy tape, tax cuts for the wealthy exploding the deficit while claiming to be a fiscal conservative, central park five stuff which I guess still falls under assorted racism and I guess I could go on for another several paragraphs in the same manner but that's a paragraph or so and i'm sure i've forgotten dozens of Trump scandals that would have ended a Bush or Obama Presidency

Obama has 'oversaw drone strikes same as Bush and Trump', Snowden/NSA spying, moderately unpopular healthcare law, long time in the past went to a church with a radical preacher, Benghazi response where no real wrongdoing was found then stuff like 'tan suit and fancy mustard'

America hasn't had a truly great President in a long time on either side probably since FDR who among other things ended the great depression, created the New Deal and basically won World War 2 and defeated fascism although I guess Truman finished it off.

It feels like Eisenhower was the last 'good' Republican President and while Clinton and Obama were both serviceable, the last top tier Democratic President was FDR. LBJ accomplished a lot, the Civil Rights Act etc, but has Vietnam and foreign policy failures overshadowing his domestic policy achievements. Reagan has 'won the cold war' under his list of top tier accomplishments but his administration was also riddled with scandals and he had a lot of failures too like the AIDS epidemic and the start of trickle down economics and policies which have led to the dismantling of much of the American middle class.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histor..._United_States makes some interesting reading in terms of historical rankings of Presidents. In general since 1900 the consensus seems to be America had a mixture of good (Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson) and bad Presidents in the early 1900s including some disasters that led to the great depression, then a great run from FDR to LBJ then Nixon through Carter were belw average without being a disaster, Reagan ratings are all over the shop but in general decent solely on the Cold War I assume then of the recent Presidents we have, Obama is upper-mid tier as someone who was competent but didn't achieve much, same for Clinton and Bush 1, and then Bush 2 is fairly lowly ranked without being a disaster and Trump is basically considered to be a disaster as a President mired in scandal and corruption who has no major significant domestic or foreign policy accomplishments other than a tax cut that exploded the deficit and some judicial nominations.

I'm growing more and more convinced that Trump is going to lose fairly badly, attacking Fox News on twitter has to be a very very poor sign for his prospects, if Fox abandon Trump (unlikely but possible if he keeps attacking them) he is done - he's also hit us with some new soundbytes for Biden ads on Covid with Trump asking to reduce the number of tests done to reduce the number of confirmed cases and his polling numbers are still just garbage and it's late June now, it's only 134 days until the election and we're mere months away from the polling being very significant and there are a lower than usual number of undecided voters because people either love or hate Trump, he really needs historically low turnout to have a chance.

Trump has drifted from about -145 to +163 on Betfair for reelection over the past couple months with over 70 million matched. I feel like Biden's a steal around -130 but still don't really want to tie up cash for months on end when I think it's highly unlikely Biden will drop to worse than -250 even if the numbers are the same as today a few days before the election and if the numbers were the same as today and voter enthusiasm levels are normal in polling data Biden will be over 90% to win

I'd imagine it tightens between now and then because usually Republican voters come home but this is going to be a pretty unique election that is basically a referendum on the incumbent when his opponent is basically 'low key uncharismatic but qualified moderate democrat'. Biden just needs to shut the **** up and not do anything disqualifying to the Democratic base or moderates and let Trump continue to hang himself

I thought the D side was ~60% to win when Trump was still a fav, i'd say Biden's closer to 70% now if I had to guess and only because it is so far from election day there is time for the narrative to change and it could easily become a coinflip again but it could also easily be 90%+ by election day if Biden is up 10%+ in the polls a week out

I'm still going to wait at least until the conventions to get involved and to know more about where Covid's headed in the US in a month or two

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Old 06-22-2020, 08:58 AM   #1284
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Swoop, I'm going to give you some surface level politics thinking bro.
You're too smart for this stuff.
Just think of our friend steeler. Steelers was the name right? The intelligence level he displayed. Sorry if you're reading this dude, nothing personal.
Most of the stuff Trump does, that we think is crazy and corrupt, like firing the southern district of New York United States Attorney Berman, is seen positively by his base. Because these are Qanon people. They believe that Trump is cleaning "the swamp ". That he's getting rid of the "deep state" . It's bizarre ,I know, but there's a lot of people in this country who have regressed as human beings, instead of progressed. In the whole world. So all these points you're making, although legitimate, just don't resonate with Trump supporters.
I too think he's going to lose. But only because people who didn't vote last election will vote this time around. But not because he's going to lose support from the right. He will, but I don't think it's going to be significant.
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Old 06-22-2020, 10:46 AM   #1285
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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there's a lot of people in this country who have regressed as human beings, instead of progressed. In the whole world. So .
This got me thinking. Regression toward the mean theory by Galton?
Can it be that we are at a phase of mental capacities of regression by last generation offspring? Galton talked about how tall parents tend to produce shorter children, otherwise we'd be all giants by now, right?
I know this is way off topic, but I thought it very interesting.
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Old 06-23-2020, 01:19 PM   #1286
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

KY primary today, centrist and former fighter pilot Amy McGrath vs. progressive state Rep Charles Booker. Only one public poll, commissioned by a progressive org, shows Booker up by 12, but the conventional wisdom is that McGrath is the favorite and her internal polls have her up by 10.

PredictIt has the odds at about 68% for McGrath, which I think is about right or maybe a little low. I have no position.
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Old 06-23-2020, 01:35 PM   #1287
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Also an interesting race in NY-16, Engel vs. Bowman. Engel has represented this district for more than 30 years, but he is quite vulnerable this time around. We could be seeing another AOC-style upset where a white long-time congressman is ousted from his minority-white district. In this case, it's not so much because of Bowman's charisma (he's fine, but no AOC) but because of Engel's awful gaffes. In particular, at a news conference about police brutality, he was caught on a hot mic saying, "If I didn't have a primary, I wouldn't care."

Most recent polls have Bowman up by 10, though Engel's team says his internals have him up by 8. I'm betting on Bowman, average price 69.
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Old 06-23-2020, 09:17 PM   #1288
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

General word of advice when it comes to betting based on polls.

Anyone who says they are with Biden is 95% sure to vote Biden.
Anyone who says they are with Trump are 100% sure to vote Trump.

Anyone who says they are undecided is usually 75% undecided in a typical election but with Donald Trump on the ticket they are called liars. 100% are voting Trump and they are just too ashamed or embarrassed to admit it.
Keep that advice in mind when reading polls.
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Old 06-24-2020, 10:31 AM   #1289
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Finally got involved for a bit, just because Pokershares prices are tons better than betfair today on Not Trump markets etc

Got Field vs Trump at -143 and some Biden -131, former is better relative to Betfair than the latter but market max was 5k euro so decided to just take both, funnily enough Dems winning party was shorter than Field vs Trump which is obv hilarious, idk what happened with Pokershares since Timex sold it or whatever but they're mega slow to move their politics lines these days

Would have taken all Not Trump -143 (given you can back him on betfair at +188) have asked them if they're willing to take more but I doubt it

Obv it's further out from the election than I wanted but getting -143 on the side I want when Betfair is +188 on the other side with respectable limits, I can't say no to that

Trump has said some pretty dumb stuff that will haunt him in attack ads over the past few days, the slow down testing stuff etc is just a disaster for him if Covid continues to ravage the US which it will over the next few months since it's past the point of containment

Obv Trump will try and suppress the vote etc but i'm not confident he's competent enough to outright cheat and barring a major improvement in his numbers that's what he's going to need to win this, the midwest is outside the margin of error at the moment and Biden has multiple paths still. Florida absentee vote requests are D +300k now it was D+9k in 2016 and even if the Midwest falls to Trump somehow Trump also needs Florida to win.

I honestly think Trump is like +300 for reelection atm so gotta take field -143 for a bunch even if it means tying up cash for a few months and i'll have ample time to buy out if the numbers change drastically or the narrative does given the different in price vs elsewhere at the moment

Anyway, got a bit so far, not a ton and while i'd rather be on field than biden since both candidates are old and randomness happens (either could die) it's only 4 months to the election and Biden's in good enough physical health that he makes it to election day 99% of the time or so that's good enough I guess given I got a few cents better and Trump is probably similar at 99% or so to still be alive, but also a slim chance he throws in the towel and has a hissy fit and quits if it becomes apparent he's going to lose so the field bet would then give me the replacement Republican if that happens, not that I think that's more than one percent or so as well but the market thinks it's well over 1% that Trump isn't the R nominee so whatever
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Old 06-24-2020, 03:35 PM   #1290
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Swoop, I agree Trump's actual odds are a lot worse than the betting odds. The nature of political markets is that sure things get priced at like 80%, just because most people bet their own team, and supply/demand prevents the exchange odds from reaching true odds.

That said, I think Trump has had a historically awful month, and his polls will probably improve somewhat in the next month as long as he just reverts to being bad instead of WOAT. Kind of like immediately after the pussy-grabbing tape came out, his polls and odds were awful, but they bounced back. We might be due for a "Trump comeback" media week, which would be a great betting opportunity.

Also, right after the Republican convention, he'll get a bit of a temporary bump and that will offer a good entry point.
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Old 06-25-2020, 12:33 AM   #1291
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2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Swoop sounds like someone who has WaPo and NYT subscriptions, watches all the nightly network news/opinion shows as long as they aren’t on Fox, etc. Just completely regurgitating every media talking point and taking what they say at face value. And then casually drops “Reagan wasn’t a good president” as if this is some sort of objective truth. Good lord.

Also, to support Trump, you have to understand that you’re signing up to see the circus. And he brought it. The only surprising thing to me was that I thought he mostly banged pageant girls and models, not porn stars. But it was worth it in ‘16 and it’s still probably worth it now given that he’s the only major form of resistance to the communist, anti-white direction that the country is headed in. I would like it if a smart career politician with a major profile had these views and wasn’t afraid to express them regularly, because then there’d be no need for Trump. But the other Republicans were going to go soft on immigration in ‘16 and that’s where Trump pounced. And then you have the general disdain for the two major parties that was also expressed by Bernie, Obama and Ron Paul supporters in recent elections that Trump also pounced on. So if y’all want to keep the blinders on and ignore the very justifiable reasons why Trump got to where he is, go ahead.
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Old 06-25-2020, 12:56 AM   #1292
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You believe there is some sort of a white genocide going on in America and nobody should take anything you have to say seriously Steelers because you're a clown and a dumbass and a racist pos among other things

Reagan was a mixed bag, he obviously put in place policies which helped end the cold war which is a huge accomplishment but there was a lot of bad to go with the good ranging from the aids epidemic to trickle down economics and Iran contra among other stuff. The link I posted rated him relatively highly on historic terms while acknowledging he was far from perfect.

I'm quite open about my political biases (left-libertarian in general) and I resisted fading trump for months waiting for the conventions but I think the asking them to slow testing comment is far far worse than grab them by the pussy in terms of political impact. To be honest it's probably worse than an n word tape if one existed because it affects his supporters too and red America is going to suffer badly from covid between now and the election. Obviously if things change I can either sell my position or add more at a later date.

I'm not saying trump is finished yet but the past couple weeks are the first time I legitimately think he is under 30 percent to be re-elected and if his position doesn't start to improve quickly he's in serious trouble. I think that'll be tough with covid rampant and unemployment etc when he's such a polarising figure that nearly half of the voters have made up their minds not to vote for him in the first place. If turnout hits 55 plus percent he's just dead I was thinking about 57 a few months ago but he needs historically low turnout to win
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Old 06-25-2020, 01:08 AM   #1293
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Just look at all this rhetoric we’re getting from the left these days regarding race. All these nonsensical terms like white fragility and what not that are becoming quite mainstream during this time. As was mentioned in the BLM thread, Shaun King called for the destruction of churches because Jesus is supposedly a white supremacist figurehead. None of this is shot down with any real force, it will get worse and will be continued to be justified because of history. This will only result in drastic consequences and not much in the way of “progress” or a better way of life for black people.
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:56 AM   #1294
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

@swoop

bush is a war monger but obama the person who won a nobel piece prize that continued all his wars and added his own is not? the person who ramped up the drones to 10x what bush did then gave it trump is what now? the person who said he would dismantle gitmo but didn't do anything but move the prisoners to other prisoners is what now? obama built the cages and deported more illegals than trump but trumps the racist lol giving syria a nuke lol and pay them for it

obama's only contributions is forced insurance which is useless now lol

obama had no scandals? like he had none or none that were none reported on? you can't be this delusional lol

idk how we can look at the same but come to different conclusions

the only thing obama had going for him was that he was loved because he was black

by most metrics obama was one of the worst presidents in history but since you don't want to seem racist then he is the best

trump has done more with less but people say he is **** because they hate him

it doesn't even matter what you accomplish in this world if you're hated by the media elite lol
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Old 06-25-2020, 03:58 AM   #1295
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Just look at all this rhetoric we’re getting from the left these days regarding race. All these nonsensical terms like white fragility and what not that are becoming quite mainstream during this time. As was mentioned in the BLM thread, Shaun King called for the destruction of churches because Jesus is supposedly a white supremacist figurehead. None of this is shot down with any real force, it will get worse and will be continued to be justified because of history. This will only result in drastic consequences and not much in the way of “progress” or a better way of life for black people.
lol this is all while white people are the majority

just wait a few years until they are not
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Old 06-25-2020, 04:02 AM   #1296
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

my book just offered props on electoral vote win margin, seems pretty juicy given now that dems are up like -170 (super glad i locked in some units on that side when it was like +120)

but if you can predict the win margin within 20-50 electoral votes you can get +700 and greater, big enough odds that you can easily hedge profitably ie if you knew for a fact biden wins with between 1-150 votes you just lock in 3 different bets covering that range

planning on doing some more research once this second wave is fully upon us and seeing how public reacts - don't want to do much now given that things will likely change dramatically in the next few weeks
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Old 06-25-2020, 04:08 AM   #1297
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

You must be so terrified of people of different races it's sad and pathetic and it must be horrible being you.

Obviously the Nobel Peace Prize was ridiculous and undeserved and i'm very much on the record describing Obama as a mid tier average President, he's just sandwiched between two terrible ones so by comparison he looks favorable because he didn't start multiple wars like Dubya and he wasn't a complete dumpster fire like Trump because he could speak coherently and listen to experts on the issues.

And no, there are no major Trump level scandals under the Obama admin on a personal or a policy level, drones is probably his biggest scandal or Snowden and neither would make the top ten under Trump. Sure, he was only an average President although if he'd got a public option into Obamacare which he wanted before Lieberman/Kennedy's death screwed him he might have fixed the healthcare system properly which would have made him above average.

Weird right wingers acting like liberals think Obama was some god who could do no wrong, he was good in some ways average to below average in others, but he compares very very favorably to both Dubya and Trump on a policy level (and on a personal level compared to Trump) so naturally people are going to have a favorable opinion of him. He's a run of the mill moderate who made a small incremental improvement to the healthcare system and otherwise was competent and oversaw a decent economic recovery from the meltdown under Dubya. That's about it.
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Old 06-25-2020, 04:59 AM   #1298
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Any theories on why Trump has moved out to 1.07 on Betfair for the Rep nomination? He has traded as low as 1.03. (i.e. now a 93.5% chance instead of a 97.1% chance).

Tempted to take it as I don't have much to use money for till the end of August anyway.
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Old 06-25-2020, 05:07 AM   #1299
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Any theories on why Trump has moved out to 1.07 on Betfair for the Rep nomination? He has traded as low as 1.03. (i.e. now a 93.5% chance instead of a 97.1% chance).

Tempted to take it as I don't have much to use money for till the end of August anyway.
think you'd make more money with less risk buying SPY puts
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Old 06-25-2020, 07:15 AM   #1300
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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You must be so terrified of people of different races it's sad and pathetic and it must be horrible being you.

Obviously the Nobel Peace Prize was ridiculous and undeserved and i'm very much on the record describing Obama as a mid tier average President, he's just sandwiched between two terrible ones so by comparison he looks favorable because he didn't start multiple wars like Dubya and he wasn't a complete dumpster fire like Trump because he could speak coherently and listen to experts on the issues.

And no, there are no major Trump level scandals under the Obama admin on a personal or a policy level, drones is probably his biggest scandal or Snowden and neither would make the top ten under Trump. Sure, he was only an average President although if he'd got a public option into Obamacare which he wanted before Lieberman/Kennedy's death screwed him he might have fixed the healthcare system properly which would have made him above average.

Weird right wingers acting like liberals think Obama was some god who could do no wrong, he was good in some ways average to below average in others, but he compares very very favorably to both Dubya and Trump on a policy level (and on a personal level compared to Trump) so naturally people are going to have a favorable opinion of him. He's a run of the mill moderate who made a small incremental improvement to the healthcare system and otherwise was competent and oversaw a decent economic recovery from the meltdown under Dubya. That's about it.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/str...den-flynn-case

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/24/o...lon/index.html

lol
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