2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread - Page 5 - Sports Betting

I understand the logic behind fading all these 2-10% guys that you think really should be like .1% but arent you tying up a bunch of money or credit for a long time for a relatively small return? Because youre laying like -1000 or worse on these, no?

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08-19-2019 , 02:53 PM

#102

BOLplayer

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 168

anyone who is taking any election bets with bookies is tying up a bunch of money or credit for a long time for a relatively small return. whether you're JP Morgan or Irving the Tailor betting millions or dimes, the only smart way to gamble the election this far out is through an exchange. otherwise there are much better places to put your dollars (i put mine in the toilet)

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08-19-2019 , 04:12 PM

#103

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Multiple-Contract Markets

Quote:

Trading shares in markets with multiple contracts works a bit differently than in those with only one contract. The mechanics of buying and selling are the same, but because the outcomes of the contracts are linked—at most only one contract can resolve to ‘Yes’, all others to ‘No’—PredictIt debits your account based on your risk in the market as a whole. This is often much lower than the face value of your shares.

Here’s a simple example:

Imagine a market with four contracts, each priced at 25 cents for ‘Yes’, 75 cents for ‘No’. If you buy a single ‘No’ share in each contract, the face value of your purchase will be $3 (75 cents for each of four shares). But the risk you incur in this position – the maximum amount of money you could possibly lose – is zero, because three of those four ‘No’ shares will pay $1 each. (Assume, for the moment, no trading fees). You spend $3 to get a guaranteed $3 payout. So, we deduct nothing.

Every time you buy or sell a share in a multiple-contract market, we recalculate your risk and debit or credit your account accordingly. Occasionally, this can lead to unexpected outcomes, where you receive a credit upon buying shares or have money deducted when you sell.

You can see a detailed calculation of your risk by clicking ‘Payouts’ at the top right of every market page and downloading the available file.

Basically, because only one contract listed can resolve YES once you buy a NO contract for one person it costs much less to take a NO position in every other candidate. It doesn't cost $850 for each person in a linked market like this. It's harder to explain the mechanics behind how PI does it than to just try it to see how it works.

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08-20-2019 , 02:32 AM

#104

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Quote:

Originally Posted by Like

I'm just saying Steyer is never going to win, i'm not going to be making my own bets (unless it's on long shot stuff like +1000 that can have a huge roi) until way closer to the election.

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08-20-2019 , 03:28 AM

#105

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Some other stuff that looks like free money atm, Hillary and Comey to face charges no and Michelle Obama to run in 2020 no; crazy that they're 14/21/9 percent

AOC to win NY-14 Primary seems like a super lock at yes at 85% as well, I can't imagine she even gets a serious challenger, it's one of the most liberal districts in the country and she's become a liberal hero and that was after she won there against a senior long term incumbent as a nobody

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08-20-2019 , 03:51 AM

#106

BOLplayer

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 168

concur

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08-20-2019 , 10:26 AM

#107

RhodyGuy

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 1,391

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOLplayer

anyone who is taking any election bets with bookies is tying up a bunch of money or credit for a long time for a relatively small return. whether you're JP Morgan or Irving the Tailor betting millions or dimes, [b]the only smart way to gamble the election this far out is through an exchange. [/b/]otherwise there are much better places to put your dollars (i put mine in the toilet)

Simple fix is to request a credit extension for the purpose of placing a futures wager. I’ve done so a couple times while stating this reason and they are more than willing to extend as opposed to upsetting a customer.

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08-20-2019 , 12:13 PM

#108

BOLplayer

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 168

Quote:

Originally Posted by RhodyGuy

okay, that's smart. i have never placed an IRL bet.

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08-20-2019 , 01:22 PM

#109

banned

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307

Quote:

Originally Posted by RhodyGuy

Ive done this too. Sometimes Id do it for this sole reason if I knew they would say yes. Because at the end of the season if you still have the account and the bets settle they never remember or care to take the credit back, so you get a nice credit bump without having to ask for it.

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08-20-2019 , 01:24 PM

#110

banned

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307

but I was talking about betting at places that dont allow credit which I assumed Swoop uses, for some reason. I think hes talked a lot about regular online offshore books in the past.

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08-21-2019 , 03:38 AM

#111

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

I mostly bet with onshore regulated Aussie books now though I use some of the more reputable offshore books too

And yeah obv no one should be tying up large portions of their roll for a 3 percent return for a year or more even if it's 100 percent to win

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08-23-2019 , 03:36 PM

#112

BOLplayer

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 168

i really do not like Donald Trump or his politics!! though he did once retweet me i think what he is doing is terrible for humankind and i am 1000% confident that he will not win re-election. i am willing to bet one (1) Wendy's Frosty, Large that he will not win re-election. any takers? you must come to Memphis to collect.

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08-23-2019 , 04:29 PM

#113

CodythePATRIOT

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,048

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOLplayer

Don't tempt me.

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08-23-2019 , 08:24 PM

#114

BOLplayer

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 168

Quote:

Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT

Don't tempt me.

Frodo!

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08-23-2019 , 11:43 PM

#115

lvr

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,743

this thread just shows how far ahead of the game trump is tbh

I don't even know why he gets so much hate from the left when he is the most left leaning democrat to date

he would of ran as a republican if they let him

on another note it is really surprising that people who gamble for a living lean so far left

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08-24-2019 , 12:03 AM

#116

BOLplayer

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 168

it will be surprising to you when i remember your post in a year and quote it

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08-25-2019 , 02:32 AM

#117

CodythePATRIOT

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,048

Biden forgets what state he is in... just the latest in a series of troubling gaffes.

https://youtu.be/-1jqVXAbq2Y

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08-25-2019 , 04:44 AM

#118

BOLplayer

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 168

yeah Biden is the gaffe-master for sure, there are some really good ones from 2008 too

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08-25-2019 , 04:45 AM

#119

BOLplayer

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 168

also why did you call them troubling? i know that you are not troubled by them at all. unnecessary adjective from an unnecessary poster.

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08-25-2019 , 02:08 PM

#120

CodythePATRIOT

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,048

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOLplayer

yeah Biden is the gaffe-master for sure, there are some really good ones from 2008 too

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOLplayer

also why did you call them troubling? i know that you are not troubled by them at all. unnecessary adjective from an unnecessary poster.

I don't love Biden's policies in general but I don't wish the guy ill will on a personal level. The nature of his gaffes have changed. It used to be like "oh look an Indian guy in a quickie mart" now it's like "go to my website that doesn't exist" or "what state am I in again?" or at least a half dozen more like that on the campaign trail so far.

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08-25-2019 , 02:55 PM

#121

BOLplayer

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 168

weird, since he is a mass-murderer i wish him ill on a very personal level

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08-25-2019 , 05:09 PM

#122

CodythePATRIOT

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,048

Quote:

Originally Posted by BOLplayer

weird, since he is a mass-murderer i wish him ill on a very personal level

What legislation/policies are you referring to?

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08-25-2019 , 09:59 PM

#123

BOLplayer

banned

Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 168

let's go with Syria

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08-25-2019 , 11:51 PM

#124

lvr

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,743

Quote:

Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT

What legislation/policies are you referring to?

Nobody that is willing to become the president is a good person. All politicians are the same at the end of the day and will use any means necessary to reach their goal.

Do you actually think that Bernie believes the horseshit that comes out of his mouth? the guy that can't even pay his own workers a living wage or pays less % tax than Donald Trump?