Wrote the answer from bed watching tv sorry I'll do up something more detailed tomorrow if you want

In any case trump remains drawing live but certainly need record low turnout or for something to change the narrative for him to be re-elected

America is not winning right now in any form of the word

If you don't mind I would love hearing your opinion. I think your opinion is decently popular among some in the US and I have no idea how anyone can come to that conclusion, but I love hearing the other side of the story.

I do agree that America is not winning right now.

Yeah, RCP does not have an understanding of converting odds to win equity.

Regarding exchanges, they can obviously be manipulated like stocks, even more so if the markets are thin. Betfair has about $5,000 in the current POTUS all comers market, but only $300 in the winning party market.

Needless to say, Trump got a nice boost from Biden racist joke, but he has lost that and plenty more in the past week. Pinnacle had Trump/Biden -117/+104, it is now -101/-115. 5dimes was even more extreme, -150/+110 to +100/-120.

Betfair all comers has Biden -101, Trump +234, and the rest +7500 or higher. Just last week Trump was +104 and Biden +120.

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I created a Predict It Price Conversion Table (linked here) on a Google sheet, to allow for easier translation of PredictIt prices into implied odds, once you figure in their fees. Feedback welcome.

When I brought up the political aspects of the trade war, I meant more in the terms of what it means for Trump and Xi specifically. Xi has basically seized power for life in China at this point and it would take a monumental **** up for him to be removed from power. Trump has re-election coming up this year and yes, the US for the time being at least, has free and fair elections. For the most part, free trade is popular because it leads to economic growth and tariffs lead to well, the opposite of economic growth. Voters like economic growth.

In the long term, China and the US may lose some industry to other countries - Vietnam, Thailand, etc will pick up some of the slack in making cheap stuff for America to import and yes, that will hurt China a bit as they lose cheap manufacturing type jobs to other countries. That said, US exports especially in areas like soybeans are going to get pretty screwed, and aren't going to recover to previous levels because you can't just magically create a new billion people who purchase a ton of soy products out of nowhere and China have started getting their soybeans from Brazil. The US can prop up the industry with bailouts in the short term but in the long term, that business probably isn't coming back, because the Chinese demand for soybeans is now met with supply from another country with cheaper labour in Brazil.

American consumers lose because prices go up so that companies can recoup the cost of tariffs and American workers lose because jobs that rely on exporting their product to China aren't coming back any time soon, it's hard to un-ring that bell once another country with cheaper labor steps up to make whatever the product is that China used to buy from the US

I suppose I can't specifically say that the US will be economically harmed more than China in the long term without doing extensive research on the topic (i've only loosely been following the specifics of the trade war) but it's pretty clear that both countries will be harmed as a result of it on an economic level and the American public has a far lower for economic pain than the Chinese do.

Xi knows that he can hold onto power longer than any individual American president who is willing to put the country through economic pain because Americans can remove that President at the ballot box and American political parties rarely hold onto power for more than 8 years consecutively so he has little incentive to back down as long as the CCP is behind his long game. Sure, you can hurt the Chinese economy a bit if you're the American president at the expense of the American economy, but is America really going to be in a position to do that for decades or however long it would take to break the Chinese economy and make them back down? With absolute political power maybe, but when you're putting swing state farmers out of work and cost of living prices are rising for other swing state voters without seeing equal wage increases at some point you're going to have to back down or be voted out of office because Americans aren't willing to put together long term policy solutions that require short term sacrifice - look at the broad opposition to the Green New Deal and similar measures aimed at tackling global warming. They're the very definition of short term economic pain for long term gain and most Americans are not at all willing to undergo short term pain, which leads to a change in leadership and a change in policy.

China would have to rise to at least peak Soviet Union public enemy #1 status before the average American would be willing to make economic or lifestyle sacrifices just to hurt the Chinese economy and they're not even close. 31% of younger Americans can't even find China on a map (National geographic survey), they're not going to risk their jobs over anything China related and the US is still a huge exporter of goods and that puts tons of jobs at risk - granted a lot of those jobs will be lost to automation in the future but until some form of UBI exists, Americans need those jobs to live. If the Chinese people are dissatisfied their only recourse is revolution and things have to get a LOT worse for there to be a revolution than they do for Americans to decide 'hey I don't like costs of living going up while we have high unemployment maybe it's time for a new President'

Not the most scientific analysis but that's the gist of it without doing substantial research. China can take the economic pain without backing down. America can't, at least, not without the general public hating China a LOT more than they do right now.

While I still agree that both are hurt short-term during this trade skirmish I fail to see why you think China is hurt less than the US during all this and especially if it gets cranked up into a full trade war. China's exports to the US make up a much higher percent of their GDP than the percent of GDP that is made up of US' exports to China. Therefore if both numbers went to zero (the countries both stopped trading with each other) our GDP would contract by less than 1% and China's would contract by more than 4% (these are the export numbers as a % of GDP).

I fail to see how Xi hammerlock on power has anything to do with the economic reality of how this would effect one country more than the other. Yes, politicians would be voted out, but that doesn't matter all that much. Unless your point is that US politicians would act like they have for the past 50 years (with the exception to trump and a couple others) and ignore the harm china is doing to the US.

I do agree with you that higher than the recent average inflation and unemployment could be a new norm (but it has nothing to do with the trade skirmish w/ china) if we continue on the bush, obama and trump way of just throwing money into the economy recklessly. Not to get too political, but bush really disappointment me with this where I expected it from obama & trump. When I heard Bush's say "I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system," I thought this could be a huge problem for the future of the US and could signal the start of the US economy transferring into an economy like Japan has seen for the last 30 years - near 0% interest and GDP growth rates.

Pinnacle now has Trump/Biden +108/-126. I am aware most in this thread are aware of this, I am posting it for later reference.

Biden -103 Trump +134 currently on Betfair with the rest going to field

Betfair is a quite liquid on this market

Yeah recent polls showed a bump for Biden since the riots but I don’t see how they could help him in the long run.

Well, Riots = businesses destroyed (and other property damage) = increased unemployment beyond what covid did, plus general negative memories associated with Trump's 4 years in office continue to build up

Could also energise black and minority voters who werent too keen on Biden to show up to vote against Trump given the way he's responded

I mean it might play no part by November but Trump's 5-10% underwater in some key states he needs to win and every new week of random crisis is one week he isn't improving his position or changing the narrative - if the election was held today he would lose unless turnout was like 40% or something historically low

Remember, Trump only overperformed his polling by about 1% in the popular vote against Hillary and a couple percent in swing states. He'd need to overperform by at least several percent to win today, or he needs to improve his position between now and November which obviously can happen but every week it doesn't the situation gets worse for him

Biden is rightfully a favourite right now, far from a lock obviously because it's so far from the election but he's a fav for a reason, the last few months have not been good for Trump, he botched the Coronavirus response and 100k+ dead (and will likely be 150k-200k+ by election day) PLUS the economic damage from lockdowns, he didn't prevent the economic damage OR the deaths where other countries like New Zealand and Australia are eliminating it or on the verge of eliminating it and countries like Sweden that didn't lockdown did get the deaths but will fade a lot of the economic damage. Somehow, Trump managed to lose on both fronts.

Sport's restarted here and the economy's going to start recovering in Australia over coming months as we can safely come out of lockdown. The American economy isn't going to start its recovery until the Covid threat AND the riots/protests aren't a dominant factor in people's everyday lives and America can't come out of lockdown without seeing a second wave of the virus because there are still too many active cases which either means more deaths or more economic pain, it's a lose/lose situation now because the initial response sucked.

It certainly doesn't help that we're seeing new police brutality cases every day. Did anyone watch the video of the cop pushing over the old man and he hits his head and starts bleeding? Brutal, but Trump is going to stand behind the police and that's going to energise minorities to show up and vote against him and suppressing minority turnout is what Trump needs to win

Remember it's June now, election day is only 5 months away. Yes, that's a long time, but it's not a full year or more anymore and Trump needs to change the narrative to be reelected, how does he do that with unemployment at record highs, riots about police brutality with racial undertones going on, etc

Not to mention stuff like turning Catholics against him with the photo op/priest from that church coming out against him etc and turning some (not many necessarily but some) active duty Military members against him by talking **** about Mattis who is revered in the military. Sure, most conservatives will disavow Mattis, but every time something like that happens even if it only costs him a thousand votes that's a thousand votes he isn't getting back and those incidents that are the breaking point for some conservatives who normally vote Republican keep adding up.

Any one of the scandals Trump subjects himself to daily/weekly with his behaviour would have ended an Obama presidency or Hillary for that matter. People know Trump is an entertaining sideshow and he gets a free pass to some extent from scandal but when it's nonstop it caps the ceiling on his support unless underlying fundamentals are good. 45% or so are going to vote against him no matter what and 40% or so are going to vote for him no matter what, he needs to win the people that dislike both candidates the way he did against Hillary and so far he's losing the voters who disapprove of both Trump and Biden on a personal level. That's not going to change unless he can change the narrative.

The economy isn't good anymore and the 'is the country headed in the right direction' test isn't good anymore either. The latter might improve post riots and corona, but the former isn't going to be fixed by November and Presidents with a low personal approval rating really, really need things to be good economically to be re-elected

The main thing that has fundamentally changed from say January this year is we all expected Trump would be going into the re-election campaign with a good economy but that's not going to be the case with record unemployment. He's not drawing dead but he's certainly an underdog now.

The thing that Trump does best, attacking his opponent, has been taken away from him by the combination of the pandemic, depression-level unemployment, and civil unrest.
If this election is a referendum on Trump, he WILL get destroyed. Bank on it.
Also, Trump-facing dezinformatsiya had been revving up a conversation about Biden's mental capacity by retweeting videos doctored to make him appear incoherent, but that will backfire when Biden appears in a debate and is perfectly clear-headed and attacking Trump. So... you can probably wager on Trump NOT agreeing to debates this fall.

tRuMp wiLL dEsTrOy SLEePy jOe in the debates is a talking point of the right, not sure Trump's ego will allow him to skip the debates and look like the one who backed out especially if Biden starts calling him a pussy on twitter or similar. I'm sure Trump will claim Biden's the one refusing to debate if he goes that route but if Biden just goes on TV + twitter and circulates a clip saying he'll debate Trump any time i'm not sure how he sells that to anyone who wasn't already 100% voting for Trump anyway

Biden's not the sharpest debater out there but he should be serviceable enough, Trump rambles off topic all the time too, neither of them are amazing debaters, but I doubt either will lose any core supporters either.

I don't expect the debates will change anyone's mind unless Biden looks way less coherent than we've ever seen him and that's super unlikely, he's old but not a complete buffoon yet he just misspeaks occasionally and Trump does that all the time too. If Biden laughs in Trump's face the way he did to Paul Ryan in 2012 and attacks him back I don't see how he'll lose any votes there

I'd take Trump to skip the debates if the line was good enough like +500 or better maybe but at evens i'd snap take at least one debate happens at even money

I have bet against the field (i.e. bet on Biden and Trump).

Seems to me that if even someone else becomes a candidate at this late stage they'd find it hard to win anyway in those circumstances as a subsitute candidate? For example could Pence beat Biden? Could Clinton (who Betfair has as second favourite for the Dem nomination on 33-1) beat Trump?

I don't see why a replacement candidate couldn't win plenty of time to get their name recognition up if need be

Clinton's a pretty bad candidate too i'd assume Biden's VP pick more likely to be the replacement if it happens but I mean she won the popular vote so of course if Trump underperforms she could win. Pence could beat Biden if he had a meltdown but would obv be a dog.

I don't think either candidate is getting replaced unless they die though

oh man, i'd be sick to my stomache right now if had the trump side of that 50k -120 2p2 bet

Https://www.prri.org

As soon as you're directed the website, the article about Trumps most recent survey is right there.

Whatever happens in November, and I think it's still a long way off, I don't see how Trump could ever win the popular vote.
And that's not a political statement by me at all.
He lost by over 3 mill to a very weak candidate in HC. last election.
I think betting on Trump not winning the popular vote must be the most slam dunk bet in the history of the world.
My only regret is that I don't have more money to wager.

I think dems control of the media means in the end of trump. They have successful convinced millions of people that trump botched covid and the riots. Anyone claiming they know hillary or biden would have done better on either front is crazy. You don't know what they would have done on either front. I personally think both biden and hillary would be worse on both fronts as they would have left us shut down for longer and let the riots go un-interrupted until every building is burned down and thousands of people who disagree with tearing down the country are hospitalized or killed, but that is all speculation.

In the near future trump has to encourage governs to tell police to enforce laws or he has to send in the military to protect people from the rioters. Although a huge majority of Americans will be better off the sooner he does this he will be vilified because there will be 10 videos that make the rounds where a police officer or military guy will take it a little too far and the media will say trump ordered the guy to do that.

I never claimed Hillary or Biden would have handled the situation better Mickey.
What I personally think is another matter. And it doesn't matter.
I only linked the website for the benefitial use of everyone. That's all I did.

Just the sharing of information. Spreading the wealth so to speak.
Do you have something against socialism?
Don't answer that. Just a joke

My post was more in a response to swope's post about trump losing on the covid & riot fronts than anything you said. However, I disagree with you that what you think doesn't matter (assuming you are an American that can vote). I think what every American's think matters a lot since we all get a vote.

Sure. Didn't take anything in any way as some slight or personally.

What I think, or anybody else think, in this forum, doesn't matter in the context of surveys, polls, and odds and the like.
I'm doing my best to not veer off the track of personal opinions again.

Tell you what. You put a bet that President Trump wins the state of Alabama, and I'll take a bet that VP Biden wins the state of New York, and we both win.
It's a win win. See, that's the beauty of sports betting.

mickey is an awesome poster who is very passionate about his trump

As you likely know I really don't like trump, but I don't vilify him as much as you would like. However, in a betting thread I do think it is important people hear the less told side of the story (those minority of people who don't hate trump). In this case I do agree with the majority that covid and the riots are hurting trump even though we disagree on why they are hurting him.

Mickey, I don't think Swoop or anybody in this thread, ( with possibly the exception of myself?) ever vilified Trump.
Don't get confused with the politics forum.
Not agreeing with the way Trump handled something and telling facts and coming up with reasons of the why and the how is in no way any sort of vilification.

Can we agree to disagree without becoming villains?