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Old 05-30-2020, 03:38 AM   #1151
lvr
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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I'll try to answer this briefly because I as much as anyone here, if not more than anyone, I have mixed personal politics where they frankly don't belong.

I guess? I consider myself more a moderate liberal. But what does it matter?
It's all the same thing. At the end of the day we all want more or less the same things. A functional government and a prosperous country. We simply have different ideas of how to go about it.
Competition is good. It is no way possible and in no way preferable for all people to think alike.
Let's all keep in mind also, that where consecutive policies are appropriate in one state, aren't necessarily the best for another. Each state is unique And semi independent of each other. One of the unique differences of America from other countries.
And no, liberals aren't communists just like conservatives aren't Nazis.
I encourage anyone here who hasn't already, to watch the Netflix series "The Family" . It's an eye opener. And scary.
It matters because you talk about indoctrination without realising you have had the same view points your whole life

I can understand a liberal that is young but old liberals blow my mind

How do you experience 50+ years of life and still believe in this nonsense lol
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Old 05-31-2020, 03:07 AM   #1152
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

interesting stuff added

first the line on the election happening as scheduled moved a bit to -282 happening as planned

also the o/u on trump tweets flagged as misleading for month of June is 6.5 with +158 on the over - really unsure about that since he'll certainly tweet enough to hit that mark but whether or not twitter chooses to acquiese or keep hitting him with the misleading tags is the real question
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Old 05-31-2020, 06:16 PM   #1153
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

This is just wild speculation on my part.
Minnesota governor was asked by the Floyd family if he could appoint Minn AG Keith Ellison as a special prosecutor to the case.

If that happens and Ellison comes out looking good, would that put him in VP pick running?

I guess two strikes against this is who knows how long the case will take and he's, yikes, Muslim.

Just giving everyone a heads up.

Roast me!
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:15 AM   #1154
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

There is a zero percent chance democrats nominate a Muslim for president or vp in the next few decades at least until no one alive is old enough to remember 911. The squad will be repped by AOC not Ilhan Omar and Keith Ellison has absolutely no chance

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/30/u...n-monahan.html

Trump can get away with infidelity and allegedly abusing women as a white billionaire but Keith Ellison is a black Muslim so he can't.

It's all a deal breaker for too many people rightly or wrongly probably including myself that he is Muslim.

Hell I'm a super progressive leftist by American standards and I wouldn't be comfortable with a Muslim president since the religion itself isn't particularly compatible with democracy and is a collection of bad ideas (so are Scientology and evangelical Christianity and Mormonism etc but the point stands)

Muslims are weird allies for the left because their religious beliefs are incredibly conservative. Sure their rights to worship as they see fit and not be discriminated against should be protected but they're anti feminist anti LGBT etc and their religious views should be off-putting to progressives for a ton of reasons.

Also Ellison will be busy being special prosecutor and can't campaign due to being busy with it and Biden's publicly committed to picking a woman

Will happily lay 100-1 on Ellison if you want it up to your 100 bucks vs my 10k max
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Old 06-01-2020, 09:55 AM   #1155
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Swoop, I 100 percent agree with all your sentiments.
I'm also pretty liberal but it gets under my skin when I see for example, a Muslim woman with a head scarf. Most Muslims are conservatives but only line up with the Democratic party in America because they know they're not wanted by Republican's.
I was not saying I would like him as vp. Just thought it might be a remote possibility. I guess I was totally wrong.
Shouldn't have brought it up.
Thanks for the roast!
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Old 06-02-2020, 01:33 AM   #1156
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

VP has to be a black women at this point. Optics are just too bad for them to nominate anyone else.
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Old 06-02-2020, 10:41 AM   #1157
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Yeah, I don't see how it can be anyone but Harris at this point. Unless Michelle throws her hat in the ring. Demings, Bottoms, Abrams, etc. just don't have the national profile. You don't want to announce your VP and have people go "...Who?"
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Old 06-02-2020, 10:50 AM   #1158
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Yeah, I don't see how it can be anyone but Harris at this point. Unless Michelle throws her hat in the ring. Demings, Bottoms, Abrams, etc. just don't have the national profile. You don't want to announce your VP and have people go "...Who?"
i could be misrembering but i don't think we've had a nationally known VP candidate since Cheney and even then he was fairly obscure, next is Gore I would guess

could easily be wrong though
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Old 06-02-2020, 10:52 AM   #1159
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Well, this is once again speculation on my part, but if I was any type of advisor or political strategist for Biden, I know who I would recommend.
Fits all the criteria. A good looking African American woman with name recognition. And who's political office would not be in threat of going to a Republican the once left vacant to boot.
The mayor of Atlanta.
What do you guys think of my choice?
Donations to my election fund are welcome.
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Old 06-02-2020, 11:01 AM   #1160
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

hey guys, serious question, what exactly are the rules regarding insider knowledge on political betting

like are campaign managers or their relatives of them barred from betting on this stuff?
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Old 06-02-2020, 11:11 AM   #1161
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

That's a really good question Rick. Never even thought about that.
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Old 06-02-2020, 12:20 PM   #1162
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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hey guys, serious question, what exactly are the rules regarding insider knowledge on political betting

like are campaign managers or their relatives of them barred from betting on this stuff?
Insider trading is alive and well on predictit. You can see it in the inexplicable price moves. Happened in the Amash market recently. I donít even know if itís forbidden and would be very hard to prove. Gives some an edge in some markets but not enough to make me not want to buy and sell shares there.
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Old 06-02-2020, 01:18 PM   #1163
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

From the PredictIt T&C:
iv. The Website is not a stock exchange, and there are no controls on market manipulation or trading on the basis of "inside information". You confirm that you fully understand the risks that this entails, or, if you do not understand these risks, you agree to obtain appropriate independent advice before using the Website.

So yeah, inside trading is explicitly allowed. In theory this makes the prices more accurate, because there's more information being incorporated.

It's also why I don't touch the RCP markets at all. RCP has no standard methodology for how they choose which polls to include in their averages. Whoever knows (or controls) when polls roll on or off could clean up on those markets.
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Old 06-02-2020, 01:35 PM   #1164
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Very interesting stuff, thank you
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Old 06-02-2020, 01:35 PM   #1165
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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i could be misrembering but i don't think we've had a nationally known VP candidate since Cheney and even then he was fairly obscure, next is Gore I would guess

could easily be wrong though
Well, Pence was fairly well known in 2016. Tim Kaine had been Governor and Senator from Virginia for 10+ years, though he didn't have much of a national profile. Paul Ryan was Speaker of the House and ideological leader of the party. Biden was a long-time Senator and had run for President twice before. Palin was definitely a nobody. John Edwards was a one-term Senator but raised his profile in 2004 by running fairly successfully for President. Lieberman was a well-known Senator.

Outside of Palin, I think you have to go all the way back to Geraldine Ferraro for an obscure VP pick, and even then she was a 3-term Congresswoman known for her work on women's issues.

I think with Biden's age, everybody understands it's extremely important that he choose a VP that could take over at a moment's notice. If he chooses someone with mayoral level experience, that would reflect pretty poorly on him. I like Keisha Bottoms, and she could well be Senator or Governor soon. I don't think 3 years' experience being mayor of Atlanta prepares her to strategize against Putin and Xi.

Also, Biden won't announce his pick for 2 months. That's an absolute lifetime in politics. The nation will be on to something completely different by then.
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Old 06-02-2020, 02:32 PM   #1166
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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The nation will be on to something completely different by then.
Good God, I hope so (with regards to the civil unrest, I mean). Hopefully, minds are changed and the needle moves with regards to give non-white people a better sense of safety in the US.
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Old 06-03-2020, 02:10 AM   #1167
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I'm starting to load up on Republicans win popular vote by 6% or fewer. Getting really good odds (averaging about +700 across multiple bets). So many factors will change by November, this really will be a crapshoot IMO.
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Old 06-03-2020, 02:57 AM   #1168
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Trump might win but he's not going to win the popular vote unless turnout is draftically under 50%, down a min of 5-6% from 2016 and probably needs it to be down 10%

Unless it's literally unsafe to go outside in November you're probably lighting your money on fire. There are a lot of votes in big blue states like California and turnout will need to be incredibly low for you to win.

That said if the Rs do win the popular vote it'll be by under 6% and as of a day or so ago Dems to win the popular vote was only -3xx so you might get a decent middle of some sort

My gut is the price is getting closer to correct now but probably still underrating Biden due to Trump's nonstop failure when facing any crisis leads me to believe it's not going to get much better for him, he needs some presidential moments and this one was a gimme (go on TV, try and unite the nation and call for calm) and instead he has the dude from the church he was trying to have a photo op at condemning him for mistreating nonviolent protestors

No president has been reelected in the past century with approval ratings similar to Trump and is the post corona and riots economy really going to be 'going great' by November?

Trump isn't drawing dead yet by any means and will play dirty etc but another couple months of this and we're at the point where voter suppression won't be enough to make it competitive anymore.

@Cody if you want R popular vote feel free to make me offers at about market price if you don't want to tie up funds til election day and we might be able to book each other no vig etc

One of the polls this week has Trump up 3% in Utah. Granted they're a unique type of red state and Trump's attacks on Romney certainly don't help.

Some surprising Senate polls this week too, Bullwock way ahead in Montana and the CO and AZ races are both double digits. Senate is definitely in play this cycle. Lindsey Graham is tied in SC too; would be very shocked if he loses though, might be the one spot to bet red this cycle if the odds start to reflect the polling, if the black turnout in SC is high enough to turf Graham out off office, Trump is losing with way less than 200 electoral votes which while possible would require a bigger landslide than Obama/McCain

I guess if Trump continues to be a nutcase it's possible but he has such a high floor of diehard fans (and low ceiling) that it seems his range is like 185-300ish or so pretty unlikely to fall outside that number

Last edited by SwoopAE; 06-03-2020 at 03:04 AM.
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Old 06-03-2020, 05:21 AM   #1169
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Thanks for the breakdown.
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Old 06-03-2020, 05:22 AM   #1170
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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I don't think 3 years' experience being mayor of Atlanta prepares her to strategize against Putin and Xi.

Also, Biden won't announce his pick for 2 months. That's an absolute lifetime in politics. The nation will be on to something completely different by then.
Do you think Trump > Bottoms in negotiations w/ Putin and Xi?
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Old 06-03-2020, 05:43 AM   #1171
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Trump is very clearly subservient to Putin and is never going to take a hardline stance on Russia if it's required you just have to look at the body language when they're together and look at Trump's refusal to criticize Putin no matter what he does.

On China it's hard to say he's better verbally at taking a stance but he hasn't really accomplished anything except for a trade war that hurts the US more than China, if he was able to get China to stay the **** out of Hong Kong's supposed self-governance i'd give him some respect but that doesn't seem to be going great so far. I feel sad for Hong Kong the world isn't willing to fight for them but China's too powerful for anyone to risk a war with. At least the UK are looking into giving citizenship to any HK citizens who want to leave. Hope Aus do our part too as a regional ally. If I lived in HK i'd be selling up to gtfo as sad as that is for anyone who sees it as their home.

To be honest I think any competent adult who is willing to listen to the experts in the room, Democrat or Republican, would do a better job than Trump of standing up to hostile foreign powers. For that matter I'm pretty sure every single poster here (except lvr obviously) could both do a better job of governing than Trump has simply by listening to the experts and reading speeches written by our speechwriters off a teleprompter and having some common sense.
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:26 AM   #1172
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

How do you figure that the trade skirmish between the US & China is hurting the US more than China?
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Old 06-03-2020, 07:41 AM   #1173
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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How do you figure that the trade skirmish between the US & China is hurting the US more than China?
In addition to having a polisci degree

He seems to have a degree in economics and apparently also psychology since he can read body language as well lol
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Old 06-03-2020, 08:37 AM   #1174
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I do have a double major with one being in economics if you wanna play gotcha

That said you could teach a parrot to say supply and demand and that covers 99 percent of it

Both countries lose the trade war but the CCP has complete control over the media and internet there and they're a one party state so they can ride it out

Americans aren't used to hard times and sacrifice and tend to punish political leaders that lead them to hard economic times

From a political perspective trump is losing his trade war because it hurts the economy which is also being ****ed by covid and the CCP don't have to care because they're not up for reelection.

From an economic perspective both sides lose the trade war
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Old 06-03-2020, 10:20 AM   #1175
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Swoop, saying people can vote out current politicians and vote in other politicians does not mean that is bad for our economy. I think it is odd that this was even brought up. This is a feature of our country and not a bug.

I agree both countries lose DURING a trade war, but it is likely one or both sides could be better off long-term after a trade war.

I am shocked that your answer to my questions had no mention of the trade deficit and the % of GDP is imports/exports from the other country.
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