Latest figures from my local's online service:
959401
D Trump elected President
-140
959402
D Trump not elected President
+100
-----------------
959501
D Trump wins Arizona
+100
959502
D Trump wont win Arizona
-140
------------------
959507
D Trump wins Florida
-140
959508
D Trump wont win Florida
+100
------------------
959511
D Trump wins Michigan
+150
959512
D Trump wont win Michigan
-200
----------------
959519
D Trump wins N Carolina
-140
959520
D Trump wont win N Carolina
+100
---------------
959523
D Trump wins Ohio
-200
959524
D Trump wont win Ohio
+150
--------------
959527
D Trump wins Pennsylvania
+160
959528
D Trump wont win Pennsylvania
-220
--------------
959535
D Trump wins Wisconsin
+120
959536
D Trump wont win Wisconsin
-160
-------------
I know there are better lines at Heritage, 5D, and such, but the fact the bets are credit-based make it pretty appealing to get down there. Anyway, I was hoping to get the thread back on track and get some opinions on which lines are worth hitting.

Spreads are enormous. I don't see any lines I like there.

Not Trump is literally an arb against Betfair etc, Trump's 'true price' vs Field is 2.09ish there at the time of this post

Trump to win NC and to win the election being the same price is obv ridiculous; if Trump loses in NC he is beyond toast yet if he wins it he can still lose the election via some combo of MI WI PA FL AZ

I suppose the same applies to Florida to a lesser degree. If Trump loses there he's already lost.

If you give all the states to the fav, the Dems win the election but it has Trump as fav which is somewhat amusing too - if you even give one swing state where Dems are ahead with those markets to Republicans, they still get to 269+ EVs

Yeah, I max-bet on Trump earlier as a "happiness hedge" if you will. When these battleground states opened for betting, I figured I'd toss bets to win $100 in each state where Trump is favored, figuring if he really is going to win, I've pressed up the amount I take down. If he loses, he could easily do so, still winning FL, OH, and NC. If he really does get bombed out and loses THOSE states? I'm going to be happy to pay off my local.

What kind of loser prefers political happiness to money?

What kind of idiot values money in and of itself rather than valuing money for its ability to increase happiness?

Amash drops out?

I will give you guys a stone cold LOCK. This is 99.999 percent. Currently, Kamala Harris has the lowest odds to be Joe Biden's selection for vice president. She is about +150. You can bet against her at -170 or so for reasonably large sums at the major offshore sportsbooks. Spend a half hour of due diligence, reading articles about her lack of black support, her record as a prosecutor, her privileged upbringing, and current lifestyle of privilege. She has zero chance here.

This is free money, as there is a very lazy narrative out there about Biden needing to choose a black women. Kamala Harris has no chance. Stacy Abrams is also mentioned a lot...she is 13 to 1. Stacy Abrams Also has zero chance. Older white women Elizabeth Warren has the best chance, and she is 6 to 1. Just pound the No on Kamala Harris, and take a shot with Warren with part of your guaranteed profit on the No Kamala Harris bet. Thank me in a month. No Harris is a lock, and Elizabeth Warren should be about even money, yet is somehow 6 to 1.

I like this guy^

Interestingly enough I was just thinking about this coincidentally. I feel like the narrative is that Harris is a shoe-in but I am not sure I am seeing it. I think I might have to go Klob as my pick for now.

Be careful with Klobucher too. She has very little chance. It will almost certainly be Warren, with Gretchen Whither having a better chance than Kamala Harris, Stacy Abrams, or Klobucher. The narrative that the pundits spin is almost always wrong. For example, Trump started at 50 to 1, then was 25 to 1 early, then still 3 to 1 up until the day of the election. On the day of election, after votes were being counted, some places had Trump at 15 to 1. And before he chose Pence for VP, there was not a single mention of Pence by anyone. Chris Christie was always either the first or second favorite for VP, yet he had zero chance. Number one, Christie put Jared Kushners father in prison, and equally as important, Trump is never going to put himself into a life situation where Trump can be upstaged by another blowhard or another charismatic person. The Pence choice was perfect if you understand what drives Trump.

Roughly ten weeks ago Bernie Sanders was the runaway winner for the Democratic nomination, and the media gave Biden very little chance. You could bet on Biden at 15 to 25 to 1 to be the Democratic nominee, and 60 to 1 to be President. Within two weeks, Biden's and Sanders odds reversed, with Biden being a lock, and even becoming close to a coin flip to be President. But if you had your own opinion, and could block out the noise of the lazy pundit and media narrative, you would have been able to see that the Democratic machine was putting up the roadblocks to a Sanders nomination. Their public words alone, against Sanders, told the story of what was also happening behind the scenes.

Biden has stated that the absolute most important thing in his VP choice is that the person be ready to be President on Day One. The answer is Warren, or a wild card. You can't chose Klobucher over Warren...ever.

Read this article about Kamala Harris from early December of 2019...just over six months ago. Then replay what has transpired since then. The article provides tremendous insight as to Harris's lack of support, but it provides equally stunning insight into Biden's support in the black community, as well as black voters in general. After reading this, you will fire your gambling roll against Harris, as she simply will not be chosen. People are making way too much out of Biden having to chose a black woman for VP. If it happens, it wont be Harris or Abrams. It will be Rice or Demmings before Harris or Abrams. Biden will choose latina Cortez Matro before he chooses Harris or Stacy Abrahms. Biden has simply floated trial balloons recently with Harris, Abrams and Klobucher...seeing if one would capture the public's imagination. It didn't happen.

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/1...rs-2020-075651

These are high-quality posts. I hope you stick around. I hadn’t been thinking of Warren but your hypothesis may be right. Throw a bone to progressives and Klob has plenty of her own problems.

Currently, those who are pushing VP candidates are pushing out articles in the media touting their candidate, and that is why every article is almost certainly biased. Look at the big picture. For instance, was it really going to be Bernie Sanders versus Trump? Two wild cards, and two extreme positions. Biden had to be the guy, even if he is deeply flawed...mainly, bordering on dementia. He offers steadiness, which is how you defeat Trump, especially now. But you still need someone to deliver knockout blows, and with Elizabeth Warren, that is what you get. Plus, she brings in more Bernie supporters than anyone else.

Black voters are not as important as people think...speaking about the nuances of this election. They overwhelmingly approve of Biden, whom they see as a proxy for Obama. The candidates being talked about for VP now simply don't move the needle, with Harris receiving shockingly low support in the African American community.

Historically, empiricly speaking, the VP does not move the needle in the voting (Dan Quayle got demolished by Lloyd Bentson, Quayle's guy, George Bush, won in a huge comeback against Dukakis). However, it is practically certain that Biden will not seek a second term, and probably more likely than not that he wont finish his first, so his VP choice is the most important in history. So think big picture. You need a candidate in the VP slot who is solid as a rock, with broad support, and as a bonus, with some magic and charisma/firepower.

Ask yourself which of these scenarios are realistic. Former presidents.

Obama, Trump, Biden, Kamala Harris.
Obama, Trump, Biden, Stacy Abrams.
Obama, Trump, Biden, Amy Klobucher.
Obama, Trump, Biden, Elizabeth Warren.

The first three are way out of place. Certainly, Elizabeth Warren is no cinch, but Harris and Abrams have zero chance, with Klobucher having a small chance. A black female in the VP slot needs to bring a ton more to the table than Harris or Abrams because they are likely going to be running for president in four years as the Democrat's default strong frontrunner. You arent going to destroy your party intentionally by going with Harris or Abrams. Harris proved her lack of support, while Abrams has never won statewide contest. Harris essentially called Biden a racist, and Biden's wife Jill has publicly spoken out against Harris, referencing Harris's attack against Biden in a debate in 2019. This criticism was less than two months ago.

One of the all-time locks is No Harris for VP at minus/-170.

Warren absolutely not.
1. Pocahontas
2. Old
3. Brings in no new voters
4. Republican governor in MA picks her replacement

Demings/Rice don't have the national standing.
Any governor is a bad look because then they have to stop managing CV19 to go out and campaign.

Narrows it down quite a bit.

Elizabeth Warren should be the lowest odds by far. She is currently over 6 to 1, while Kamala Harris is +150, Klobucher between 4 and 5 to 1, and Stacy Abrams 10 to 13 to 1. I will give you the roadmap below. An ice cold roadmap that you can take to the bank.

1) Elizabeth Warren is by far the most likely choice, and she should be even money instead of 6 to 1.

2) Kamala Harris and Stacy Abrams each have zero chance. When I say zero, it is legit zero.

3) If it is a black woman it will be Demmings or Rice way before it would be Harris or Abrams.

4) Latina Cortez Mastro would be chosen before either Harris or Abrahms.

5) Klobucher has very little chance. Not zero, but no more than a percent or two.

6) Gretchen Whitmer has a punchers chance, but nowhere near the chance of Elizabeth Warren. Warren at 6 to 1 and Whither at 11. Warren should be even money and Whitmer should be 20 to 1.

7) A total wildcard has a better chance than Harris, Abrams, or Klobucher. There is actually a group bet that you can bet against those specific three that is currently paying over even money...closer to plus 150 at times. That bet is great value, and almost a lock.


This is the roadmap. There is money just sitting there to be scooped up. Read my posts and reasoning, do your own research, and send it in.

https://youtu.be/BEhlNcaDPz8

Warren won't be selected, don't understand why you are so optimistic about her.

Abrams seems intriguing considering she is from GA, where dems are trying to make a swing state for 2020. Demings is from FL, but she seems lesser known and her congressional district is already pretty democratic according to Cook. If Biden decides to go black, what percentage of the time do you guys think it will be Harris?

I'm in the process of reading every post in this thread, and I'm on page 16 right now. Let me just say that there are a handful of powerhouse posters who make this a very stimulating and fun thread. I won't mention by name because I will surely leave someone out. Before the night is over I hope to get to the point in the tread where Bernie made his move, Biden was left for dead, and then it all reversed, essentially within a week or two. I look forward to seeing how that played out with assumptions made here, as well as real time odds being discussed.

Observations so far is that many of you had the most important data and insights that should have allowed you to potentially make a killing, the main example being Biden polling strongly in the south, as well as with blacks. That turning point after Bernie's move, was (hindsight of course) one of the great betting opportunities in election market history. Biden changed the narrative in South Carolina in a defining way, but South Carolina played out exactly how many of you would have predicted months earlier.

It appears that Biden had to climb a wall of worry, quite similar to Trump. People always thought Trump would eventually say something so out there that it would be disqualifying, and that narrative attached itself to Biden in this year's primaries. Gaffe prone, possibly senile, kind of a joke. Trump had a reasonably similar narrative from the media in his journey, but oddly enough, both Trump and Biden were similar in that, truth be told, you know what you are getting. They each offer security to the voter in an interesting way.

Something that really stood out were the conversations about Butigeig (sic?). I mean, this guy really had a zero chance all along, with many here making note that he was polling at legit zero percent with blacks. Just goes to show you how ridiculously unimportant/important Iowa and even New Hampshire is. It allows no chance candidates to take a shot. There is something wrong about those early contests.

I also made note how many of you were dialed in on the flaws of Kamala Harris. As you may realize, my lock of the century is No Harris for VP, at odds of anywhere from -150 to -200. This is found money, and the decision could happen anytime between now and early July, so you don't need to tie your money up. Her chances are a big zero.

One of the driving thought processes in my life is analyzing the thought processes involved in market moves, mainly in publicly traded securities, but I'm beginning to realize that that election narratives, and the changing wagering prices that go along with them, might be the Holy Grail of mispricing on a grand scale, because you have the added daily input from multiple media, plus the biases of those offering opinions to the masses, which essentially dictate the price action that is so wrong at times that it defies belief, and recency bias skews the markets in a huge way.

What I'm saying is that election market wagering, and the discussions that go with it, is where the money is if you really want to challenge yourself intellectually, because there are so many variables involved, many of which are misunderstood by almost all people in the media, as well as guys on the street, whom are talking about it. The Trump election is probably exhibit A as millions of people were studying a certain phenomenon over time who had no clue what they were talking about, and even less clue about math. Even on the day of the election, as votes were being counted, his odds went from 3 to 1 to 15 to 1. That is fascinating in so many ways.If you interviewed a man from Mars who had watched the election process without reading or watching opinion pieces, he would have told you that he would bet Trump would win.

Those whom supposedly knew the most...pundits, etc., ended up knowing the absolute least in all of the world. Many went on record guaranteeing that Trump would not win, but they didnt guarantee that Bob Dole would not beat Bill Clinton. I mean Dole had no chance. Kind of like in stocks...you will often see people shorting companies that are of course overvalued, but they are the exact type of companies that you should not short, because they usually have a cult following, and even if they are frauds, there is some magic there somewhere, whether in a C.E.O. or in the product.

right now there is an option of bet on the election happening as scheduled -309, this seems like free money, they are going along with meaningless primaries during this time don't see any chance of them delaying an actual election

have people factored in reduced turnout among certain groups in their models, should be interesting, i am guessing this could have lower than usual turnouts due to fear

Wow, you are incredibly smart about things that already happened!

If turnout is low because of fear, than I would think it's to Trump's advantage. Don't you think?

Damn Homie, I wasn't expecting that. I reread my my quoted posted before your comment, and I was sure that you were about to pay a huge compliment..haha. You got me good with that dagger. But I do have one rule when it comes to forum posting, and that is that I never make another post in a thread the moment I realize that I have let a poster influence my mental state, or dictate in any way, how I feel about myself. You likely did me a huge favor, so with that, I bid this thread farewell. Rules are rules, and my ego was fishing for a compliment right up until your dagger, so with that, this will be my final post.

Yeah not only because of Swoop theory but how the two parties view the severity of the virus. Republicans are far less likely to give a **** about it.

Election happening as scheduled is a great bet. The states are in charge of the elections, so there will certainly be some voting, even if some places like Georgia try to delay. And if there isn't voting, there's going to be a civil war, so good luck getting paid.

Impossible, you were on the cusp of making this thread great again. Don’t be deterred. The dynamic of this thread is a bit prickly at times, I wouldn’t let it discourage you. Just let it sharpen your resolve and refine your thought processes. Together we can all fade Kamala at -170. If this goes down you instantly certify yourself as a forum legend.

Just because Domer won a few million bucks in politics betting (spoiler, I have no idea), it doesn't mean you should let him get under your skin like that impossible. I was really enjoying your posts.