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2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

08-15-2019 , 11:55 AM
yea beat it tom
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08-15-2019 , 12:00 PM
Clyde ross was born in 1923, the seventh of 13 children, near Clarksdale, Mississippi, the home of the blues. Ross’s parents owned and farmed a 40-acre tract of land, flush with cows, hogs, and mules. Ross’s mother would drive to Clarksdale to do her shopping in a horse and buggy, in which she invested all the pride one might place in a Cadillac. The family owned another horse, with a red coat, which they gave to Clyde. The Ross family wanted for little, save that which all black families in the Deep South then desperately desired—the protection of the law.

In the 1920s, Jim Crow Mississippi was, in all facets of society, a kleptocracy. The majority of the people in the state were perpetually robbed of the vote—a hijacking engineered through the trickery of the poll tax and the muscle of the lynch mob. Between 1882 and 1968, more black people were lynched in Mississippi than in any other state. “You and I know what’s the best way to keep the ****** from voting,” blustered Theodore Bilbo, a Mississippi senator and a proud Klansman. “You do it the night before the election.”

The state’s regime partnered robbery of the franchise with robbery of the purse. Many of Mississippi’s black farmers lived in debt peonage, under the sway of cotton kings who were at once their landlords, their employers, and their primary merchants. Tools and necessities were advanced against the return on the crop, which was determined by the employer. When farmers were deemed to be in debt—and they often were—the negative balance was then carried over to the next season. A man or woman who protested this arrangement did so at the risk of grave injury or death. Refusing to work meant arrest under vagrancy laws and forced labor under the state’s penal system.

Well into the 20th century, black people spoke of their flight from Mississippi in much the same manner as their runagate ancestors had. In her 2010 book, The Warmth of Other Suns, Isabel Wilkerson tells the story of Eddie Earvin, a spinach picker who fled Mississippi in 1963, after being made to work at gunpoint. “You didn’t talk about it or tell nobody,” Earvin said. “You had to sneak away.”

When Clyde Ross was still a child, Mississippi authorities claimed his father owed $3,000 in back taxes. The elder Ross could not read. He did not have a lawyer. He did not know anyone at the local courthouse. He could not expect the police to be impartial. Effectively, the Ross family had no way to contest the claim and no protection under the law. The authorities seized the land. They seized the buggy. They took the cows, hogs, and mules. And so for the upkeep of separate but equal, the entire Ross family was reduced to sharecropping.

This was hardly unusual. In 2001, the Associated Press published a three-part investigation into the theft of black-owned land stretching back to the antebellum period. The series documented some 406 victims and 24,000 acres of land valued at tens of millions of dollars. The land was taken through means ranging from legal chicanery to terrorism. “Some of the land taken from black families has become a country club in Virginia,” the AP reported, as well as “oil fields in Mississippi” and “a baseball spring training facility in Florida.”

Clyde Ross was a smart child. His teacher thought he should attend a more challenging school. There was very little support for educating black people in Mississippi. But Julius Rosenwald, a part owner of Sears, Roebuck, had begun an ambitious effort to build schools for black children throughout the South. Ross’s teacher believed he should attend the local Rosenwald school. It was too far for Ross to walk and get back in time to work in the fields. Local white children had a school bus. Clyde Ross did not, and thus lost the chance to better his education.

Then, when Ross was 10 years old, a group of white men demanded his only childhood possession—the horse with the red coat. “You can’t have this horse. We want it,” one of the white men said. They gave Ross’s father $17.

“I did everything for that horse,” Ross told me. “Everything. And they took him. Put him on the racetrack. I never did know what happened to him after that, but I know they didn’t bring him back. So that’s just one of my losses.”

The losses mounted. As sharecroppers, the Ross family saw their wages treated as the landlord’s slush fund. Landowners were supposed to split the profits from the cotton fields with sharecroppers. But bales would often disappear during the count, or the split might be altered on a whim. If cotton was selling for 50 cents a pound, the Ross family might get 15 cents, or only five. One year Ross’s mother promised to buy him a $7 suit for a summer program at their church. She ordered the suit by mail. But that year Ross’s family was paid only five cents a pound for cotton. The mailman arrived with the suit. The Rosses could not pay. The suit was sent back. Clyde Ross did not go to the church program.

It was in these early years that Ross began to understand himself as an American—he did not live under the blind decree of justice, but under the heel of a regime that elevated armed robbery to a governing principle. He thought about fighting. “Just be quiet,” his father told him. “Because they’ll come and kill us all.”

Clyde Ross grew. He was drafted into the Army. The draft officials offered him an exemption if he stayed home and worked. He preferred to take his chances with war. He was stationed in California. He found that he could go into stores without being bothered. He could walk the streets without being harassed. He could go into a restaurant and receive service.

Ross was shipped off to Guam. He fought in World War II to save the world from tyranny. But when he returned to Clarksdale, he found that tyranny had followed him home. This was 1947, eight years before Mississippi lynched Emmett Till and tossed his broken body into the Tallahatchie River. The Great Migration, a mass exodus of 6 million African Americans that spanned most of the 20th century, was now in its second wave. The black pilgrims did not journey north simply seeking better wages and work, or bright lights and big adventures. They were fleeing the acquisitive warlords of the South. They were seeking the protection of the law.

Clyde Ross was among them. He came to Chicago in 1947 and took a job as a taster at Campbell’s Soup. He made a stable wage. He married. He had children. His paycheck was his own. No Klansmen stripped him of the vote. When he walked down the street, he did not have to move because a white man was walking past. He did not have to take off his hat or avert his gaze. His journey from peonage to full citizenship seemed near-complete. Only one item was missing—a home, that final badge of entry into the sacred order of the American middle class of the Eisenhower years.

In 1961, Ross and his wife bought a house in North Lawndale, a bustling community on Chicago’s West Side. North Lawndale had long been a predominantly Jewish neighborhood, but a handful of middle-class African Americans had lived there starting in the ’40s. The community was anchored by the sprawling Sears, Roebuck headquarters. North Lawndale’s Jewish People’s Institute actively encouraged blacks to move into the neighborhood, seeking to make it a “pilot community for interracial living.” In the battle for integration then being fought around the country, North Lawndale seemed to offer promising terrain. But out in the tall grass, highwaymen, nefarious as any Clarksdale kleptocrat, were lying in wait.

Three months after Clyde Ross moved into his house, the boiler blew out. This would normally be a homeowner’s responsibility, but in fact, Ross was not really a homeowner. His payments were made to the seller, not the bank. And Ross had not signed a normal mortgage. He’d bought “on contract”: a predatory agreement that combined all the responsibilities of homeownership with all the disadvantages of renting—while offering the benefits of neither. Ross had bought his house for $27,500. The seller, not the previous homeowner but a new kind of middleman, had bought it for only $12,000 six months before selling it to Ross. In a contract sale, the seller kept the deed until the contract was paid in full—and, unlike with a normal mortgage, Ross would acquire no equity in the meantime. If he missed a single payment, he would immediately forfeit his $1,000 down payment, all his monthly payments, and the property itself.

The men who peddled contracts in North Lawndale would sell homes at inflated prices and then evict families who could not pay—taking their down payment and their monthly installments as profit. Then they’d bring in another black family, rinse, and repeat. “He loads them up with payments they can’t meet,” an office secretary told The Chicago Daily News of her boss, the speculator Lou Fushanis, in 1963. “Then he takes the property away from them. He’s sold some of the buildings three or four times.”

Ross had tried to get a legitimate mortgage in another neighborhood, but was told by a loan officer that there was no financing available. The truth was that there was no financing for people like Clyde Ross. From the 1930s through the 1960s, black people across the country were largely cut out of the legitimate home-mortgage market through means both legal and extralegal. Chicago whites employed every measure, from “restrictive covenants” to bombings, to keep their neighborhoods segregated.

Their efforts were buttressed by the federal government. In 1934, Congress created the Federal Housing Administration. The FHA insured private mortgages, causing a drop in interest rates and a decline in the size of the down payment required to buy a house. But an insured mortgage was not a possibility for Clyde Ross. The FHA had adopted a system of maps that rated neighborhoods according to their perceived stability. On the maps, green areas, rated “A,” indicated “in demand” neighborhoods that, as one appraiser put it, lacked “a single foreigner or Negro.” These neighborhoods were considered excellent prospects for insurance. Neighborhoods where black people lived were rated “D” and were usually considered ineligible for FHA backing. They were colored in red. Neither the percentage of black people living there nor their social class mattered. Black people were viewed as a contagion. Redlining went beyond FHA-backed loans and spread to the entire mortgage industry, which was already rife with racism, excluding black people from most legitimate means of obtaining a mortgage.

“A government offering such bounty to builders and lenders could have required compliance with a nondiscrimination policy,” Charles Abrams, the urban-studies expert who helped create the New York City Housing Authority, wrote in 1955. “Instead, the FHA adopted a racial policy that could well have been culled from the Nuremberg laws.”

The devastating effects are cogently outlined by Melvin L. Oliver and Thomas M. Shapiro in their 1995 book, Black Wealth/White Wealth:

Locked out of the greatest mass-based opportunity for wealth accumulation in American history, African Americans who desired and were able to afford home ownership found themselves consigned to central-city communities where their investments were affected by the “self-fulfilling prophecies” of the FHA appraisers: cut off from sources of new investment[,] their homes and communities deteriorated and lost value in comparison to those homes and communities that FHA appraisers deemed desirable.
In Chicago and across the country, whites looking to achieve the American dream could rely on a legitimate credit system backed by the government. Blacks were herded into the sights of unscrupulous lenders who took them for money and for sport. “It was like people who like to go out and shoot lions in Africa. It was the same thrill,” a housing attorney told the historian Beryl Satter in her 2009 book, Family Properties. “The thrill of the chase and the kill.”

The kill was profitable. At the time of his death, Lou Fushanis owned more than 600 properties, many of them in North Lawndale, and his estate was estimated to be worth $3 million. He’d made much of this money by exploiting the frustrated hopes of black migrants like Clyde Ross. During this period, according to one estimate, 85 percent of all black home buyers who bought in Chicago bought on contract. “If anybody who is well established in this business in Chicago doesn’t earn $100,000 a year,” a contract seller told The Saturday Evening Post in 1962, “he is loafing.”

Contract sellers became rich. North Lawndale became a ghetto.

Clyde Ross still lives there. He still owns his home. He is 91, and the emblems of survival are all around him—awards for service in his community, pictures of his children in cap and gown. But when I asked him about his home in North Lawndale, I heard only anarchy.

“We were ashamed. We did not want anyone to know that we were that ignorant,” Ross told me. He was sitting at his dining-room table. His glasses were as thick as his Clarksdale drawl. “I’d come out of Mississippi where there was one mess, and come up here and got in another mess. So how dumb am I? I didn’t want anyone to know how dumb I was.

“When I found myself caught up in it, I said, ‘How? I just left this mess. I just left no laws. And no regard. And then I come here and get cheated wide open.’ I would probably want to do some harm to some people, you know, if I had been violent like some of us. I thought, ‘Man, I got caught up in this stuff. I can’t even take care of my kids.’ I didn’t have enough for my kids. You could fall through the cracks easy fighting these white people. And no law.”

But fight Clyde Ross did. In 1968 he joined the newly formed Contract Buyers League—a collection of black homeowners on Chicago’s South and West Sides, all of whom had been locked into the same system of predation. There was Howell Collins, whose contract called for him to pay $25,500 for a house that a speculator had bought for $14,500. There was Ruth Wells, who’d managed to pay out half her contract, expecting a mortgage, only to suddenly see an insurance bill materialize out of thin air—a requirement the seller had added without Wells’s knowledge. Contract sellers used every tool at their disposal to pilfer from their clients. They scared white residents into selling low. They lied about properties’ compliance with building codes, then left the buyer responsible when city inspectors arrived. They presented themselves as real-estate brokers, when in fact they were the owners. They guided their clients to lawyers who were in on the scheme.

The Contract Buyers League fought back. Members—who would eventually number more than 500—went out to the posh suburbs where the speculators lived and embarrassed them by knocking on their neighbors’ doors and informing them of the details of the contract-lending trade. They refused to pay their installments, instead holding monthly payments in an escrow account. Then they brought a suit against the contract sellers, accusing them of buying properties and reselling in such a manner “to reap from members of the Negro race large and unjust profits.”

In return for the “deprivations of their rights and privileges under the Thirteenth and Fourteenth Amendments,” the league demanded “prayers for relief”—payback of all moneys paid on contracts and all moneys paid for structural improvement of properties, at 6 percent interest minus a “fair, non-discriminatory” rental price for time of occupation. Moreover, the league asked the court to adjudge that the defendants had “acted willfully and maliciously and that malice is the gist of this action.”

Ross and the Contract Buyers League were no longer appealing to the government simply for equality. They were no longer fleeing in hopes of a better deal elsewhere. They were charging society with a crime against their community. They wanted the crime publicly ruled as such. They wanted the crime’s executors declared to be offensive to society. And they wanted restitution for the great injury brought upon them by said offenders. In 1968, Clyde Ross and the Contract Buyers League were no longer simply seeking the protection of the law. They were seeking reparations.
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08-15-2019 , 12:04 PM
Through the power of narrative, notice how individual acts of racism become institutionalized. To reverse racism, we must approach it from a macro level.
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08-15-2019 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parttimepro
Tom, weren't you the one who didn't want this thread getting derailed into personal political beliefs?
thankfully there are 2 threads now so this one is free to be tarded up.

2+2 called Obama in 08, 12 which was ez. adanthar sux and is stupid btw.

2+2 @ss handed to it on Clinton 2016.

the entire internet has caught Trump fever so not shocked that there is a lean towards Trump here now but this forum is nothing if not infested with liberals so i expect plenty of noise from both sides here.
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08-15-2019 , 12:57 PM
The wheels didn't really fall off until I offered to buy Hedgie free Chick-Fil-A
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08-15-2019 , 02:06 PM
sure you had nothing to do with it. i don't mind really it's best this way.
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08-15-2019 , 02:30 PM
Systemic racism is the most obvious to see because of America's legacy of slavery and Jim Crow. Once aware of it you'll begin to see the systems of oppression everywhere.
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08-16-2019 , 03:34 PM
i love the TomG beatdown/meltdown explosion in this thread, well done
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08-16-2019 , 07:00 PM
Dinner at Chick-Fil-A followed by dessert at Ben & Jerry's in the true spirit of bipartisanship
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08-16-2019 , 07:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG
Dinner at Chick-Fil-A followed by dessert at Ben & Jerry's in the true spirit of bipartisanship
Now we're talking.
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08-16-2019 , 11:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BOLplayer
i love the TomG beatdown/meltdown explosion in this thread, well done

he’s a damn national treasure sometimes
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08-17-2019 , 01:34 AM
Williamson has no chance; she might have some niche followers among the new hippie types and those who buy healing crystals and think vacccines are a big pharma conspracy but her views do not play to the D base mainstream her absolute ceiling is something like 10% in a primary

If I was on predictit i'd snap sell Williamson all the way down to 1% to win the nomination she has a zero percent chance at the nomination
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08-17-2019 , 09:41 AM
Hi all,

Not sure if I’m in the right place (let me know what forum to use if not) but I’m wondering if anyone would like to take the field against my Warren+Abrams winning the 2020 presidency. We can negotiate the odds/terms. I can’t find the bet anywhere on online bookmakers so I figured I’d come here.

Thanks
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08-17-2019 , 10:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bcgt178
Hi all,

Not sure if I’m in the right place (let me know what forum to use if not) but I’m wondering if anyone would like to take the field against my Warren+Abrams winning the 2020 presidency. We can negotiate the odds/terms. I can’t find the bet anywhere on online bookmakers so I figured I’d come here.

Thanks
This is an oddly specific bet...you got some inside info you want to share? lol.
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08-17-2019 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
This is an oddly specific bet...you got some inside info you want to share? lol.
Haha nope just looking for some long odds and have a good feeling about that presidential ticket. Any interest?
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08-17-2019 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bcgt178
Haha nope just looking for some long odds and have a good feeling about that presidential ticket. Any interest?
I don't know how long the odds you will get are. Warren to win right now with any VP would be about +500 right now. I'm not sure how much Abrams is worth as VP pick on top of that.
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08-17-2019 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
I don't know how long the odds you will get are. Warren to win right now with any VP would be about +500 right now. I'm not sure how much Abrams is worth as VP pick on top of that.
Agreed warren is +500. There are at least 10 quality VP options for her (including people running like Buttigieg, klobuchar, Harris, Bullock), the odds of guessing the right one have to increase the overall odds quite a bit. Especially since there are governors and senators as potentials, and Abrams isn’t even holding a public office right now. Throw a number at me, what do you think? +2000?
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08-17-2019 , 07:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bcgt178
Agreed warren is +500. There are at least 10 quality VP options for her (including people running like Buttigieg, klobuchar, Harris, Bullock), the odds of guessing the right one have to increase the overall odds quite a bit. Especially since there are governors and senators as potentials, and Abrams isn’t even holding a public office right now. Throw a number at me, what do you think? +2000?
I would counter with something like +1500 and we settle on +1750... I have some interest but what are your thoughts on the escrow. I wouldn't want to take any more than $100 of your action.
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08-17-2019 , 08:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
I would counter with something like +1500 and we settle on +1750... I have some interest but what are your thoughts on the escrow. I wouldn't want to take any more than $100 of your action.
Yea I’d do 100 at +1750 (I’d do more if anyone else is interested also). Good question about the escrow. I’m obviously good for the hundred bucks, do you want to ship the 1750 to someone or how do you want to guarantee it?
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08-17-2019 , 08:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bcgt178
Yea I’d do 100 at +1750 (I’d do more if anyone else is interested also). Good question about the escrow. I’m obviously good for the hundred bucks, do you want to ship the 1750 to someone or how do you want to guarantee it?
I will just sit this one out for now... it is tempting but I don't think the logistics are working in our favor.
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08-17-2019 , 08:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
I will just sit this one out for now... it is tempting but I don't think the logistics are working in our favor.
I’m not opposed to just shipping you the 100 and you can pay me if you lose, assuming you can get some references to vouch that you’re good for it.
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08-17-2019 , 09:19 PM
sitting here with my Warren +900 like
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08-18-2019 , 09:38 AM
What are the chances Biden drops out? Obama has been carefully telling him that it’s ok not to run after these repeated embarrassing misspeaks. It’s pretty clear Joe Biden 2019 is not the same Joe Biden of 2009. Frankly, I’d be quite scared to see what POTUS Biden looks like in 2023.

I think Warren is good value here with the Biden dropout factor.
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08-18-2019 , 12:46 PM
if i were Warren i would totally pick Biden as my VP. "hey we can't have double Obama but we can have the next best thing!" gross
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08-19-2019 , 03:34 AM
Steyer an easy fade at 3 percent who does he think his constituency is lol and does he really think the Dems would nominate a billionaire this cycle?
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