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2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

03-10-2020 , 08:39 PM
i thought we had a shot. if this what it's like to be vafongool everyday
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03-10-2020 , 08:54 PM
Jib -definitions

Shift from one side of the ship to the other"the sail jibbed wildly "
Refuse to comply
A stationary condition; a stands still
One that jibs, or balks; a jibber
Move relatively backward or sideway..a horse
A stand for beer-barrels
The under lip
Many more gems but I'll close with my favorite-
Same as a jibber
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03-10-2020 , 09:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HolidayInTheSun
I don't have a medical degree or any remotely relevant training or experience, but I did spend about 30 minutes scanning news articles a few days ago, so, pretty much an expert at this point, and from my understanding, those that you're describing would be in the 14% classified as serious, but not requiring hospitalisation. The 80% classified as mild, as I understood, wouldn't be able to distinguish the Chinese Corona virus from a common cold.

Thus, if hospitals did become overwhelmed, it would just be 5% of the cases that would not be getting the treatment they need and would be at heightened risk of death.

Perhaps another recently accredited medical expert could weigh in on this for us.
"Mild" is basically not needing hospitalization. You could still get pneumonia and be considered a mild case. Everything other category requires hospitalization because you end up needing breathing assistance.

Quote:
Mild included non-pneumonia and mild pneumonia cases. Severe was characterized by dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/minute, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, PaO2/FiO2 ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% within 24–48 hours. Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure.
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article...b-fea8db1a8f51

So basically 20% of cases would require hospitalization/breathing assistance. In some places in Italy, they've had to ration to the point that they won't intubate you unless you're under 69 because the health care systems have been so overwhelmed.

Israel just required a mandatory 14 day quarantine for anyone entering the country, which will effectively kill their tourism industry for as long as that's in place. Countries with large tourism industries aren't going to kill those industries over something minor.
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03-10-2020 , 10:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hedgie43
they won't intubate you unless you're under 69 because the health care systems have been so overwhelmed.
So if someone who's 70 or older shows up they just tell them to **** off and die? Yeah, I don't believe that.
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03-10-2020 , 10:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brass
So if someone who's 70 or older shows up they just tell them to **** off and die? Yeah, I don't believe that.
So what do you do when you don't have enough breathing machines for patients and they require them to survive?
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03-10-2020 , 11:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brass
So if someone who's 70 or older shows up they just tell them to **** off and die? Yeah, I don't believe that.
that's literally what's happening in lombardy because they don't have enough equipment, beds or even doctors to treat everyone, people are literally dieing in the hallways
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03-10-2020 , 11:24 PM
So what is the death toll then at italy?

With all these hall deaths
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03-10-2020 , 11:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Like
yea and people say something exactly like that every single time.

We'll see whos right though and pretty quickly. We could have a US deaths by coronavirius prop bet for fun
Not deaths, but...

https://twitter.com/pokershares/stat...60646608154624
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03-10-2020 , 11:57 PM
Team Doomburger: Cody,Rickroll,Parttimepro,Sigley,Tomg,Swoop


Team Nothingburger: Ivr,HITS,Like,Nepeeme2008,Bahbahmickey,Brass
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03-11-2020 , 01:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
So what is the death toll then at italy?

With all these hall deaths
don't be an ass, you could have bothered to confirm this in 10 seconds on google

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/k...nk-of-collapse

Quote:
“By now, we’re forced to provide intensive care treatment in the corridor, in the operating rooms, in the recovery rooms,” he said. “We gutted entire hospital wards to make room for the seriously ill. One of the best healthcare systems in the world, the Lombard one, is one step away from collapse.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...breaking-point

Quote:
Some doctors have said that they sometimes make the call on who gets treatment based on the age of the patient. In some areas, hospitals are suspending other treatments to focus personnel on the contagion.

A doctor who asked not to be named because of potential repercussions painted a dire picture of the situation in a hospital in Milan. While the coronavirus is best known for causing severe disease in elderly patients, even some young people are affected, the doctor said, and without sufficient beds and ventilators, some can’t be treated.

The hundreds of patients needing treatment for pneumonia have swamped the supply of available specialists, the Milan doctor said. Physicians such as gastroenterologists, who normally focus on the digestive system, have been conscripted to help out with lung patients, and they’re still not enough, the doctor said.
stats https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

this is just the stuff that journalists are able to be able to verify before printing, the unverified personal accounts paint a far worse picture - which is coincidentally mirrors exactly the reports that were coming out of Wuhan so I believe in the authenticity

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03-11-2020 , 01:51 AM
So how many dearhs? Lol
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03-11-2020 , 02:32 AM
look man, as stated, i was in that "lol" camp as well for a very long time, so much that I remained in the infected zone when most expats fled

personally living in a country on lockdown and reading about what happened in other countries that didn't take drastic steps has changed my mind on the matter

China didn't shut down all the offices and schools indefinitely for SARs or any other situation in the past, this is not by any means standard operations for them and they wouldn't take such a painful economic measure that will have lasting repercussions if they weren't 100% certain it was the only viable solution
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03-11-2020 , 02:52 AM
You still have not answered my question thou nor did the article..
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03-11-2020 , 02:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
You still have not answered my question thou nor did the article..
650 as of now but deaths is not even the metric you need to be most concerned about.
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03-11-2020 , 03:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
You still have not answered my question thou nor did the article..
that number was shared, shockingly found under the link labeled "stats" who'd have thunk

at least have the decency to say you didn't bother reading the information you personally requested

stop being a dick

sorry for the derail guys, i'll stop commenting on this now that it's clear lvr isn't interested in an actual good faith discussion and will go back to my lurking ways
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03-11-2020 , 04:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
sorry for the derail guys, i'll stop commenting on this now that it's clear lvr isn't interested in an actual good faith discussion and will go back to my lurking ways
Why do you lurk this thread but post in other ones?
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03-11-2020 , 05:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
Why do you lurk this thread but post in other ones?
as someone who majored in polisci i'm interested in it when there's reasonable discourse but pretty much exhausted to the point of apathy when it comes to direct contributions to the discussion
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03-11-2020 , 06:50 AM
It's not a society ending we're all doomed thing but a ton of old people are going to die of Coronavirus this year and it's going to cause a recession

I wouldn't put myself in the 'doom' category but I would put myself in the 'it's likely to be the biggest story of 2020 and it's a big deal' category.

Looks like Biden vs Trump now. Biden wins the moderates, it's a matter now of can he make enough of an effort to reconcile with the left that the Bernie/Warren crew don't stay home because he needs some of them to show up for him to win. He does have multiple paths to victory though with Florida back on the table for Dems even if they're small dogs there - Hillary + MI/WI + PA is still the most likely path.

I like Biden on a personal level and while i'm closer to some combo of Warren/Bernie/Yang on policy, i'll vote for him in November. He's not going to be a game changing President, but i'm fine with voting for him to get rid of Trump

The Berniebros are super mad at the moment, I think Biden's going to need to emphasise 'a public option and getting rid of Trump' in his campaign if he's going to win, use the Obamas as surrogates to turn out the black vote, and he needs a young progressive woman of colour on the ticket (A slightly older AOC type would be perfect, but I can't think of a good enough example of a young progressive Hispanic woman to turn out hispanic voters and the left who he'd consider nominating off the top of my head)

I googled young progressive hispanic woman politician and every single article on the front page was about AOC, lol

In the end though I think this election is still going to come down to turnout, it's going to be 'does the left join the centre-left in turning up to throw Trump out of office despite their distaste for Biden'. If yes, Trump loses, if no, he wins.

Trump is trying to divide the Dem base going on about how Bernie is getting robbed, it's a smart tactic. I feel like most of them will begrudgingly vote for Biden to get rid of Trump but it's too far out to tell what's going to happen especially if this Coronavirus outbreak completely cripples the economy and actually starts killing old people - it won't be enough to swing the election but there's a huge difference between 5% of the population knowing an old person who dies from Coronavirus and 50% of the population knowing someone who dies from it.

Unrelated point but lvr makes every thread worse through his 'participation' he has added nothing of value to this forum ever in any thread. Why are you here lvr? What value are your contributions here bringing to your life? They're not bringing value to any of our lives. There are plenty of posters here I disagree with politically or whatever who are adding value to this thread. I've made real friends on twoplustwo over the years and engaged in discussions with people I both agree and disagree with on a range of topics

You've basically called a bunch of people stupid or similar in a bunch of threads and as far as I can tell that's the only thing you do here. Why are you here posting the way that you do? There isn't a single other poster on 2p2 as far as I can tell with posts as pointless as yours. Have you learned anything about sports betting or poker or made any friends here or changed your views about the world in any way or done anything of value?
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03-11-2020 , 09:44 AM
I'm not sure which camp I'm in anymore. I think I have to ashamedly admit, I'm probably in the camp of who are the cool kids this week

As far as our friend Ivr is concerned, I think I know how his brain works.
He's sitting at home watching the news. The weather forecaster says it's pouring rain in Portland Oregon. He's steps out of his Las Vegas home into the blistering heat and says "wtf are they talking about, I don't see no rain" .
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03-11-2020 , 10:38 AM
after becoming a coronavirus expert by listening to the latest episode of joe rogan's podcast and reading about the extents to which china went to contain the outbreak i have decided to switch from #teamunconcerned to #teamepidemic
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03-11-2020 , 10:42 AM
Wouldn't it be cool if they had a prop bet, "who's going to get infected with the virus first, Biden, Bernie or Trump" ?

I know I'd put my money on the president.
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03-11-2020 , 11:02 AM
My takeaway from last night: Wow, people sure hated Hillary in 2016. Bernie's success that year now looks a lot more like her failure. As a friend of mine said back then, "The Democrats nominated the only candidate who could lose to Trump, and the Republicans nominated the only candidate who could lose to Hillary."

re: Biden VP, I had this convo with Cody a few months ago. If you're Joe Biden, and you've won the nomination, you've done it by ignoring all the woke tweets. You don't need a VP who's going to magically energize the young people who didn't even get off their ass to vote for Bernie. You need a VP who's going to reassure 50-to-70-year-olds in Michigan. Your pitch is that the Democrats are the calm, sane party after 4 years of chaos. Your VP shouldn't want to revolutionize anything. It should be someone who could immediately, credibly step in as president. Ideally they should be from the upper Midwest.

That means absolutely not Abrams. But there is a wide field of governors and senators to choose from. Klobuchar, Duckworth, Cortez-Masto, Baldwin, Whitmer, Booker are all credible candidates, along with a bunch I don't have time to look up now.


Agree on lvr. Terrible poster.
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03-11-2020 , 11:24 AM
eager to begin shaming the science deniers on #teamunconcerned
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03-11-2020 , 11:29 AM
I'll never forget how people broke out laughing hysterically 4 years ago at the Bill Maher show when Ann Colter said she thought Trump would win.
But yeah, in retrospect, his victory is definitely overrated.
He could only have won against Hillary. But that doesn't mean that Biden is a sure thing. I put my money on Biden already but that doesn't mean anything. It's money I can easily afford to lose. I did it more to have some clout here
It's going to be a bloodbath of a general but.I do think Biden will edge out Trump.

As far as picking who the vise presidential pick will be, I think that's probably the most difficult thing to predict in all of betting.
It's never who you expect. Am I wrong on that?
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03-11-2020 , 11:51 AM
Lol at saying trump could have only beaten Hillary in 2016. He would have swept the floor with Bernie. Trump vs Bernie in 2020 would be a YUGE landslide but 2016 Bernie vs trump wouldn’t have been too much better for Bernie.
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