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Old 03-10-2020, 07:24 AM   #826
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

HIT, 3/4 of those categories are fatal when the ICU are so packed they have patients laying on the floor in the hallway

that's what the problem is, we don't have the volume capacity to handle it so a lot of people who could have been treated will die
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:32 AM   #827
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

do you guys not remember SARS and H1N1 and the swine flu and mad cow disease and ebola and whatever other "pandemic" that was supposed to wipe everyone out? Every time people say 'this time its different!' but then it never is.
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:42 AM   #828
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

poogs, those never infected or killed even a fraction of the amount this one has done and it's still spreading

china never shut down the entire country for sars, they told people to wash their hands and stop spitting

they reacted completely differently and orders of magnitude more seriously with this one - they care about the economy more than anything, they would have not taken those measures lightly

just think for a minute that a landmass larger than all of europe/USA with 1/5th of the world living in it has shut down all schools, offices, etc and put the entire country on paid vacation and instructed to stay at home and not to go out for over 2 months now - they wouldn't do that if this didn't have major pandemic capabilities

a much better comparison is spanish flu of 1918 where close to half the world got sick and a few million died - it's a scary thought, but that's much more in the ballpark than SARs, which didn't last nearly as long or infect/kill even a fraction of what COVID has done

i too was in the "lol whatever" camp for months, I've seen the new data and now am firmly in 1918 2.0 camp
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Old 03-10-2020, 11:10 AM   #829
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

yea and people say something exactly like that every single time.

We'll see whos right though and pretty quickly. We could have a US deaths by coronavirius prop bet for fun
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Old 03-10-2020, 11:14 AM   #830
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Keep in mind a "mild" case just means you don't need to be hospitalized. You could be sweating in bed for a week, and get mild pneumonia, and it would still be classified as a mild case.

Lombardy has 5,000 cases, in a population of 10M. The hospitals are completely overflowing. Very few people are getting the treatment they need, because there aren't enough beds or ventilators. All non-emergency medical care has been postponed. What's going to happen in a week or so when there are 10,000 cases?

That's going to happen in the US, too. People are going to panic, and eventually we'll use severe containment procedures like Italy and China have.
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Old 03-10-2020, 12:16 PM   #831
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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yea and people say something exactly like that every single time.

We'll see whos right though and pretty quickly. We could have a US deaths by coronavirius prop bet for fun
give me some odds and a timeline
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Old 03-10-2020, 01:09 PM   #832
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

the media makes their money by selling advertising and panic is good for ratings. we all know better than to trust the fake news media by now.

wash hands, no touching, no unnecessary trips. stay inside and argue over the internet more. i think we can all agree on that?

china's active cases appeared exponential, then it peaked and has been steadily declining for a month.

if i had to guess i'd take china's numbers and superimpose that on the usa, with adjustments for various factors.

predictit had a market for if WHO will declare it a pandemic that expired NO. hopefully they put up more markets so we can stay inside and gamble on it
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Old 03-10-2020, 01:39 PM   #833
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Ok. Since I said too much already without contributing anything analytical, I'll give my last opinions and stay out of it thereafter.

Is the media causing a panic( I hate that word "fake news".
It applies for Fox News just as much if not more for liberal media.)
Sort of. When CNN talks about corona virus 24/7.
Will it end up killing millions? Probably and hopefully nothing near that.


But I think we're missing the point.
1)It's having a massive impact on business and everyday life.
2) No matter how or if the whole thing is being overblown,( which I was actually in this camp in the beginning), it is still something that has to be taken seriously by the government. Not, instead, the government reaction being that it's some kind of left wing witch hunt! That's just insane.
3) Even if at the end, no serious loss of life comes of this, which I believe is a feeling we all share, it doesn't mean that it isn't a potential threat.
I mean, we haven't had another 9/11 for a reason. Because the government has been vigilant about preventing it.

That's all I'll say on this matter.
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Old 03-10-2020, 01:46 PM   #834
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

Has anyone found a book where we can bet the o/u of deaths coronavirus will cause? If there are people out there thinking there could be a million I may need to sell the house to bet the under.
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Old 03-10-2020, 01:55 PM   #835
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Keep in mind a "mild" case just means you don't need to be hospitalized. You could be sweating in bed for a week, and get mild pneumonia, and it would still be classified as a mild case.
I don't have a medical degree or any remotely relevant training or experience, but I did spend about 30 minutes scanning news articles a few days ago, so, pretty much an expert at this point, and from my understanding, those that you're describing would be in the 14% classified as serious, but not requiring hospitalisation. The 80% classified as mild, as I understood, wouldn't be able to distinguish the Chinese Corona virus from a common cold.

Thus, if hospitals did become overwhelmed, it would just be 5% of the cases that would not be getting the treatment they need and would be at heightened risk of death.

Perhaps another recently accredited medical expert could weigh in on this for us.
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Old 03-10-2020, 02:02 PM   #836
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

fwiw most virii follow a logistic curve and not exponential

due to there not being infinite people and measures being put in place (like quarantine) which slow it down.

Personally, I am torn what to do. I'm set to return to the epicenter of every disease Vegas on Monday. My three options

1) Keep air bnb'ing in the woods
2) Return to Vegas and live a normal life and hope I don't die
3) Return to Vegas, buy a year worth of supplies, and lock myself inside. Basically self-quarantine for a year.

I'm leaning towards 3)
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Old 03-10-2020, 02:24 PM   #837
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Has anyone found a book where we can bet the o/u of deaths coronavirus will cause? If there are people out there thinking there could be a million I may need to sell the house to bet the under.
How long do you reckon it will be before the virus is under control and it doesn't cause disruption to things like work, high schools and sporting events?
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Old 03-10-2020, 03:01 PM   #838
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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That's going to happen in the US, too. People are going to panic, and eventually we'll use severe containment procedures like Italy and China have.
Ding ding ding, and hence you have the real problem. These autocratic measures are prohibited by the Constitution. It's going to be much harder to reel people in in the States. Hence why the outbreak is going to be far worse here. And if the government tries to force its hand things could get very ugly.
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Old 03-10-2020, 03:24 PM   #839
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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3) Return to Vegas, buy a year worth of supplies, and lock myself inside. Basically self-quarantine for a year.

I'm leaning towards 3)
Do you still have the tunnel between two houses in a culdesac?
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Old 03-10-2020, 03:25 PM   #840
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Ding ding ding, and hence you have the real problem. These autocratic measures are prohibited by the Constitution. It's going to be much harder to reel people in in the States. Hence why the outbreak is going to be far worse here. And if the government tries to force its hand things could get very ugly.
The US government has very broad powers to quarantine anyone. https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...nt-quarantine/

We currently lack the will or ability to do it. If we tried it tomorrow, it would probably look a lot more like Italy (confusing, poorly enforced) than China.

Ultimately, I doubt that the response relies on quarantines. More like enforced social distancing -- shutting down movie theaters and malls and restaurants, or at the extreme end shutting offices and factories as well. If panic sets in there's a decent chance air travel is shut down or severely restricted.

Is that sort of thing allowed? Well, the Supreme Court would have to decide. Which means basically the government would do what it wants, and then maybe a year or two later the court might tell it that it shouldn't have done that.
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Old 03-10-2020, 03:26 PM   #841
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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How long do you reckon it will be before the virus is under control and it doesn't cause disruption to things like work, high schools and sporting events?
I have no idea and it depends on how you define disrupting work, school and sporting events, but I'd spitball the o/u would be 149.5 days from today.
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Old 03-10-2020, 03:28 PM   #842
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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The US government has very broad powers to quarantine anyone. https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...nt-quarantine/

We currently lack the will or ability to do it. If we tried it tomorrow, it would probably look a lot more like Italy (confusing, poorly enforced) than China.
What do we think about putting people in cages? From this thread I have gathered that obama built some cages for humans and trump has experimented with them.

Spoiler:
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Old 03-10-2020, 03:29 PM   #843
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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#Michigan #10at10 Projection:

Sanders 46.8%
Biden 44.2%
how do we do it guys.
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Old 03-10-2020, 03:41 PM   #844
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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fwiw most virii follow a logistic curve and not exponential

due to there not being infinite people and measures being put in place (like quarantine) which slow it down.

Personally, I am torn what to do. I'm set to return to the epicenter of every disease Vegas on Monday. My three options

1) Keep air bnb'ing in the woods
2) Return to Vegas and live a normal life and hope I don't die
3) Return to Vegas, buy a year worth of supplies, and lock myself inside. Basically self-quarantine for a year.

I'm leaning towards 3)
Here's my take on it.

For months I was in the lol fear and hype phase with people like to panic over nothing

Then I see China shut entire country down, no big deal, it was about to be a month long holiday anyway

Then they extend it another month. Then they extent it another. Then they say it'll be this way indefinitely.

China has more information than anyone on this disease. China doesn't need to worry about hype and emotions, they make emotionless decisions that their data models and simulatioms recommend.

China values the economy over anything else. They regularly make sacrifices the rest of the world wouldn't because the economy gets absurd priority.

China with that priority and knowledge of the disease, they decided to just shut everything down. No schools, no offices, basically the entire country even works from home or gets paid to not go to work.

They wouldn't make such a Draconian decision lightly.
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Old 03-10-2020, 04:57 PM   #845
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

lets lock it up boys. i trust a random poll from a company i never heard of.

No
+1200
Game - Will Joe Biden Win US Presidential Election 2020 Democratic Primary in Michigan ?
Risk $250.00 Win $3,000.00


after we bet it, down to +841

market movers
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Old 03-10-2020, 05:18 PM   #846
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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Old 03-10-2020, 05:31 PM   #847
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

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I wouldn't make much of it. Universal health care has won in exit polls in 4/4 states so far.

Democratic candidates are routinely more conservative than their voters because [comment withheld].
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Old 03-10-2020, 05:33 PM   #848
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

the way i see it tho if bernie wins we win 3k x 3 + predictit money

if he loses we can say the polls were rigged and unfair and the DNC is rigged and win morally

win win win
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Old 03-10-2020, 05:35 PM   #849
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

I like your jib.

Linguists, please look into the limited usage of "jib"
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Old 03-10-2020, 07:56 PM   #850
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Re: 2020 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

it's the cut of your jib you failed yachtsman
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