Table selection is a huge part of the game.

After further evaluating the numbers, its more bad for Bernie than I initially realized , Bernie is polling at least above 15% (viability threshold) in virtually every state. Bloomberg/Warren/Klob (and to some extent Biden) are not, but are mostly close. Lots of 9-15% in lots of states for that group. Pete dropping out has a very real chance of making some of them viable and stealing 15% of the delegates, especially in states like Cali, that could hurt Bernie's delegate count in a real way. Pete dropping may take someone like Warren into the viability range in Cali.That would hurt Bernie, having to split delegates further.

Although what Warren is doing is really a joke. She has 0 chance at winning the most delegates going into the convention. If her plan is to have some small amount of delegates to bring to a contested convention, and then try to pitch herself as this unity candidate "everyone is okay with me". The chance of that even working is like next to zero. Certainly under 5%, you think Bernie and Biden with way more delegates then you are going to tell their delegates to back you? No ****ing chance. And then on top of that, to make it even more ridiculous, she consistently polls the worst by far against trump. All the other candidates are ahead nationally in like 90% of the polls. Hers are like 50/50. So even if she IS the democratic candidate, she's probably going to lose. (swing states lean more R than overall national polls)

What she's doing is absolutely ****ing ******ed. If she believed in her agenda AT ALL, she would have dropped out and endorsed Bernie two weeks ago. Now the only thing she seems to be doing is running as a spoiler to him. Idk if she went to him asking for VP nod or something for her to drop out and he said no, but what shes doing is very stupid.

I mean Trump ruined her a long time ago and she still decided to run so why quit now? Why would she stop being delusional after all this time?

Down goes Klob, we creep ever closer towards the one path towards Bernie losing the nom.

Thats exactly what I was talking about with cloudbootjar and Minnesota.

These micro stakes betting markets are a ****ing joke.

bernie bros all waking up in moms basement this afternoon are SHOOK.

Did you take time out of supporting criminals and institutional racism to type this?

biden is the favorite to win the nomination on a couple books now

luckily i have FIELD vs Bernie in a lot of these, but Minnesota looking bleak now.

should we bet on HILLARY to be the next president at this point? Deval Patrick?

Democratic Party is completely fractured. Progressives won't come out for Biden, many moderates won't vote for Bernie. I don't see a path forward for the party this election. It seems like the outcome is inevitable.

She is well positioned for a Biden VP nod.

Looks like it comes down to a Bernie vs Biden marathon

Still find it funny Bloomberg got to 30 percent or so briefly

People writing off the Dems this election is way premature sure the candidate will be flawed but it's still a turnout election and there is plenty of time for the base to get riled up about throwing trump out of office. They're not ****ed unless it comes down to a contested convention full of dirty tricks etc

Coronavirus might mean a recession and a real recession means gg trump a pretty decent percent of the time. The economy is the only thing holding his support together with moderates.

Still too soon to get involved in the general. I think it'll be clear one way or the other a few weeks out and I doubt well see worse than -200 either side by then

Great, give voters even more of a reason to not want any part of Biden. Trump might win every state at this rate

Bookmaker has

Tulsi Gabbard no primaries won on Super Tuesday -2500 with a $500 win limit

Seems like a lock? In before we lose $12,500 when she wins American Samoa as she is Samoan

Also new fair line IMO for tomorrow

Bernie 9 ST wins
Biden 6

rip KLobuchar

It's a free 4% on your money, I guess it's fine for a day's return, she has 0 chance in any of the primaries. I would take it.

At least have the balls to post on your main lol

All bernie bros shook

538 now has Biden 31% to win the nomination, Sanders 8%, 61% brokered convention (which DNC will rig for Biden)

so does that mean Biden is 92% to win? I woke up and on most sites he's a big favorite over Bernie now

lol bye bye bernie

Typical overreaction based on one stupid state that doesn't matter.

Does anybody here actually believe Biden will have a delegate lead at the end of the night? If so, i would like to take your money.

You guys are like the stiffs who run to bet on the team that did well last week because some moron on ESPN won't STFU about them.

These micro-stakes "markets" aren't the ****ing NFL.

Despite Biden doing embarrassingly badly in IA and NH, this still came true.

Today I see Bloomberg learning that you can't buy elections, as his support collapses. I expect he'll probably drop out soon and endorse Biden. Most of the people who told pollsters they'd vote Bloomberg will probably stay home (and would have regardless of what was happening in the race), but some will shift to Biden.

Warren will probably drop out after Super Tuesday? She'll want to win her home state, but has no path to the nomination, and staying in would hurt her progressive cred. I'm not at all sure that all her voters will go to Bernie. Maybe more of a 60-40 split between Bernie and Biden.

With all this consolidation, Biden is mostly on track to win a majority. Great bet on PredictIt at even odds that the Dem convention will not be brokered. Hint: you need 3 viable candidates for a brokered convention.

The hardcore Bernie Bros (and Russians pretending to be them) are going to ***** and moan that the nomination was rigged and the DNC cheated. Some will get over it, some will vote for Jill Stein. Since most of them live in deep blue states anyway, it won't have much effect on the election.

Pourin' one out for my homegirl Amy K. She needed everything to go right, and it didn't. Decent shot at a VP or cabinet position, though.

microstakes?



been all over no brokered convention

Democrats won't have brokered convention +370
Democrats won't have brokered convention +350
Democrats won't have brokered convention +390
Democrats won't have brokered convention +250
Democrats won't have brokered convention +275
Democrats won't have brokered convention +200
Democrats won't have brokered convention +220
Democrats won't have brokered convention +225
Democrats won't have brokered convention +170
Democrats won't have brokered convention +150
Democrats won't have brokered convention +120
Democrats won't have brokered convention +100
Democrats won't have brokered convention +150
Democrats won't have brokered convention +155
Democrats won't have brokered convention +175
Democrats won't have brokered convention +180
Democrats won't have brokered convention +220
Democrats won't have brokered convention +110
Democrats won't have brokered convention +110
Democrats won't have brokered convention +175
Democrats won't have brokered convention +160

I agree the strat is to fade recency bias

Bernie's odds tanked in California, Utah (California #2), Colorado (California #3), Vermont (East Coast California) after Pete did good in Iowa, so made sense to buy there.

Fade Bloomberg once he entered (lol @ getting Bloomberg no primaries won at +1000 for $500 limits)

Bernie got ridiculously bad odds in the south (like -200 to win Alabama, -400 to win NC, favorite in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma) after he won NV and everyone thought he was undefeatable, so it made sense to pile on Biden in those states.

But Bernie never really had a chance. Once everyone else dropped out all that support goes to Biden. Only negative is that it happened too fast since the plan was to go big on Biden post Super Tuesday, but what can you do. I did bet a lot of Bernie loses Democrats abroad at > +1000. I think after today Biden will be the favorite there.

Bloomberg now claiming he'll stay in until the convention. I've consistently underestimated his ego. But the race has still consolidated, and he's going to have a very hard time getting to the 15% threshold to get any delegates.

Ironically, he would have done *much* better if the DNC had kept him out of the debates.

btw if your books still have it up I feel fading Bernie in the Democrats abroad primary is a good thing

He's had crazy odds there like -3000 with +1500 on the other side all week. Right now 538 has him at 56% but they're also factoring in 2.5 delegates and 1.7 for warren (out of 13 total). Biden is ~1.8 delegates behind Bernie. If one does drop out could be a nice pick up getting 15/1 on money. I kinda wish I had more bet on it now.