I still think Biden's the second most likely nominee after Bernie. He's a terrible candidate, but none of the other moderates can attract enough minority support to threaten Bernie

Biden does need to win SC though to appear 'viable' and have other moderates who are scared Bernie will win rally around him on ST or it'll just be too late

SC is the first truly interesting primary since Iowa, since Bernie winning NH/NV was super likely

At this point though i'd take Bernie over the field to be the nominee at close to evens. Was thinking about it yesterday but haven't fired yet. If it paid out when he got enough delegates that'd be nice, but having to tie up money up the the convention would be annoying

I pretty much agree with all of this, polls show Bloomberg support has stalled/started to fade. I think Biden is the only one who can stop Sanders. I think Sanders would be a decent value atm up to -110 to -120 or so right now.

I just put a decent chuck on him to win California last night at -900. Up to -1000 now after two polls today show sanders up by 21 and 17 points there. Should be a free 10+ percent there on ST

I thought Biden looked AWFUL last night. The yelling was so clearly forced and bizarre. It sucks bloomberg has the charisma and personality of a reptile because I actually like a lot of what he had to say. If it comes down to him vs trump Ill have a tough decision personally. He seems just like a rational businessman to me. Id have to look into his platform but overall I liked his answers. When he tries to be tough or funny or do anything besides answer questions he comes off so bad though.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...-carolina-poll

bernies polling behind even tom steyer lol

klobuchar now the fav to win minnesota on predictit

and biden 80% for alabama on predictit

we destroyed them to those. team politics thread

to be fair to this cody kid, I think he knew that post was aids and I dont think hes been back since.

Cody if youre reading this I welcome you back. We all make bad posts now and then. All you can do is accept it and move on. No need to leave altogether, you were a decent poster before this nonsense

I'm still feeling great about SC for one reason: it's an "open primary". These are historically difficult to poll. Word on the street is that Trump morons intend to vote for Bernie under the mistaken impression that a "socialist" will be easier to defeat.

Odds seem 60/40 Biden/Bernie. No one else is winning. IDGAF what the polls say about Steyer. He significantly under performed his polling in NV.

anyone else jumping on this biden texas steam. got some at +280 this morning and now it's almost 50/50

also fading bernie in america samoa at +1000. lets feel the biden

Based off the polls I think its should be about 50/50 maybe mild lean Bernie, but I think +280 is a very nice price.

Also to the guy above talking about open primary repubs going for Bernie, thats happened alot throughout election history where the other party backs the "weaker" candidate, the amount of people who actually do it is very very low, the effect of it is almost always next to negligible.

Trump was considered the 'weakest' candidate in 2016 too and Rubio was supposed to be the 'only Republican who would beat Hillary' for a while there

Pundits aren't always right about what the people who vote actually want, especially in primaries where the average Dem voter is pretty left wing and the average Rep voter is pretty right wing

The pundit 'class' so to speak loves to rant about how everyone wants a moderate during primary season because it's full of 'enlightened centrist' insider types regardless of which party's primary it is and how nominees who are 'too far right/left' are unelectable

The last two Republicans who won were pretty far right even for their party at the time and the last two moderates the Republicans nominated lost

Democrats haven't nominated a hard left candidate in a long time, Bill Clinton won, Obama won, Kerry and Gore and Hillary all lost

It's a new era in American politics though, without compulsory voting, turning out the base is what determines who wins the election there are a ton more non-voters who sometimes vote and sometimes don't than there are true 'moderates' who want to vote for the most centrist candidate possible

Once again it'll come down to turnout. Bernie will energise the liberal activist base, it depends whether he can convince the moderates not to stay home if he's nominated

If turnout exceeds 2016 levels he probably wins, if not he probably loses. Peoples minds are made up about Trump for the most part. His base will never abandon him, but people who didn't vote for him last time aren't going to vote for him this time either for the most part - he'll turn out the hard right base in numbers, some moderate conservatives may stay home etc it's going to come down to whether Democrats come out either to vote for the nominee or to vote against Trump in numbers.

Appreciate the vote of confidence Like. You are right... this is no time to bicker.

Been busy prepping for COVID-19. Making cabin arrangements now. Planning on doing at least 3 months. Stocked up on various cuts of beef, chicken, veal, along with whole grains and non-perishable food items, butter, ammo and water tablets. The guys I am talking to are milling their own bread, but I don't know if that's something I want to take on right now. My survival skills are pretty poor, which I am currently coming to regret. But, at least this place will have Wifi,beer, and a hot tub. I will have plenty of time so hopefully I will be able to learn new skills while I am there. Could be a long couple of months. The place I am looking at sleeps 4. Any credible SB 2+2er with references is welcome, but it has to happen quickly given that the first community outbreak was just reported. North Carolina, USA for anyone who is interested. Make sure to bring extra supplies and food.

I hope you are all stocking up and taking the appropriate measures. If sports betting has taught us anything it should be the power of quick compounding growth. I wouldn't mind taking on a person or 2 but I am fully prepared to go it alone. Get in contact with me if you want to learn more about the virus or need any preparation tips. It's clear to me that China is under-reporting these numbers. Best of luck and stay safe out there. Here are some pics in case anyone is interested.

Gl out there Cody

Been a few cases in Aus but all contained so far. Does look like it may get worse before it gets better in general though. We have a spare freezer of food always here in general so could go a month or so without going outside easily enough but would prob add extra if it looked like a legit outbreak

Mike Pence certainly isn't the dude i'd want in change of overseeing policy to do with containing the virus though. I'm hoping Australia not having land borders with anywhere helps us a lot, they really need to make mandatory screening for everyone at airports and borders until it passes, not just people who are symptomatic, yeah that'll lead to delays and some economic hurt but a full on global pandemic would be a lot worse

Thanks Swoop you too. Shame you are in AUS because I have koozie with your name on it.


Hopefully I am overreacting but the way I look at is this: What exactly is the worst case scenario? I get to stay in some bomb ass cabin for 3 months for a (relatively) small amount of money? And just do the same stuff I always do? It's just an extrapolation of my personal investing strategy:

Heads I win big, Tails I don't lose much.

Not the worst case scenario, but I could see the coronavirus resulting in a tiny percentage of Americans getting infected (well under 1%), and then you getting bitten by a tick and getting Lyme disease in the North Carolina wilderness and having it ruin your life. And more ironic would be you getting bitten by a tick and getting the Lyme disease bullseye rash, so you go to a hospital to get antibiotics, but the hospital is where the very few people with coronavirus are, and you catch it from one of them.

Or your house gets burglarized while you're gone. Or squatters move into your place while you're gone and then Bernie gets elected and says they own it now because of his new Squatters' Rights executive order.

That's an awesome looking little love shack Cody. Enjoy.
And don't fret. Wifi, beer and a hot tub, I think you got the essential survival skills down.

LOL +1

Biden to win SC now 92c on predictit

if only I could get the aoc iq bet lol

Against you? Against Louie Gohmert? I'd lay both you halfwits odds.

Good call. Momentum is less of a factor in a single state than I thought.

Still have ST being a complete blood bath. Entirely possible Biden only wins Alabama with Bernie winning everything else.

Bloomberg is going to hurt Biden badly on Tuesday.

Biden is heavily favored in North Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama

and slightly favored in Virginia, Oklahoma, Arkansas.

Klobuchar is a decent favorite in Minnesota.

It's a tie between Sanders/Biden in Samoa and they're close in Texas.

So that means worst case he only wins 6 of the 14 on ST. 7 or 8 wins seems like a fair number.

If you believe Bernie gonna destroy ST tons of free $ out there. I'm happy with my Bernie loses NC at big + odds, Loses Minn at big +odds, and all my biden to win alabama, and oklahoma at big odds from last week. Wouldn't switch this late. No late poll is really gonna change anything IMO

Best time to make money was post Nevada when everyone went Bernie crazy and drove the Bernie odds to ridiculous numbers. By Wednesday all of that was gone.

Forgot about Tennessee. Doesn't exactly strike me a "Bernie country".

Biden is in trouble on ST for two main reasons: 1) he hasn't had the money to effectively organize on the ground or to run ads in the ST states. This **** must still matter. 2) Bloomberg clearly has done example 1. and as a result looks primed to take a lot of the low-info - do what the TV says - vote away from Biden.

I'm fully confident Bernie will win Minnesota. I doubt people are exactly going to run to vote for some local, yokel, who finished with 3 percent of the vote in two consecutive states. I seriously doubt that's how people voting in a presidential primary are thinking. Her being favored there is the epitome of a square ass market full of establishment wisdom.

There just isn't much data on many of these states either. Which i prefer! Becomes more of an instinct and fundamentals game.

If i were setting an o/u on how many states Biden will win on ST. I'd give O 2.5 plus odds to try and get as much action as possible.

And it's possible i'm fully delusional about Bernie strength in Arkansas, Oklahoma. But i feel better about those states than Virginia and NC, which i feel ok about.

Another, probably more likely scenario could have Biden winning 4 states but Bernie winning way more delegates.

Either way, i happy to finally resolve this ****.

Trump is out and championing for bernie again

He must have something in the tuck

Mayo Pete out of the race. From the 2nd choice I'm seeing for his supporters in recent national polls, it looks fairly split. (some show bernie and biden tied for second choice, some show biden ahead, some show bernie, one showed Klob) Maybe SLIGHT help to Biden, based on the numbers I'm seeing.

Interesting, I know he does better with old people, so I just assumed this helps Biden in a big way. Seems like it could be the difference in Texas, Virginia, NC, and helping him above 15% in California.