Quote:
Originally Posted by Like
yea swoop if you really think its anyones game then id think you should be getting in on Dems +160. Even if you have to tie up money thats a huge edge
I'm strongly considering it - I think it's much closer to a pickem atm
As you said the main issue is tying up a bunch of money for 10 months - it feels like even if it's a +30% ROI or whatever the utility of extra cash in the bankroll being turned over dozens of times is probably better, plus there's obviously the possibility that i'm wrong and the market is right etc
I really, really doubt either side is going to be a huge fav as of the conventions (unless it's obvious by then who will win) and i'd rather get the Dems at even money a few weeks from the election if I think fair is -160 or whatever and i'm whacking a decent percentage of the roll then than taking them now if I think fair is -120 or whatever just due to the utility of the situation and of course there's the possibility that things break Trump's way this year and i'm stuck with a bet that's breakeven vs market or even losing vs market that also ties up a ton of the roll for a year for no reason
Again, I will get involved financially closer to the election and I do like the price, and if I could 'lock in' +160 without tying up the money for a year I would obviously since I think it's between a flip and Dems being a small fav but i'd rather just wait and see - I might wind up finding a Dems to win the popular vote line or something at a ridiculous price somewhere that's a lot better if it appears that turnout is going to be high, as there's no scenario where the Dems lose the popular vote but win the electoral college but a ton of scenarios where the Dems win the popular vote but lose the electoral college
There's a high probability the 'Dems win popular vote line' will be better EV wise than Dems to win the Presidency even if it looks like they're going to win a few weeks out or whatever if that turns out to be the correct side
If I had to tie up say half my roll right now on a specific line for the election on a close to pickem line (eg not maxing Dems to win Cali or Republicans to win Alabama or whatever) i'd probably fire Dems to win the popular vote at -130ish or whatever the market has at the moment
Last edited by SwoopAE; 02-21-2020 at 03:09 AM.