how much money do you have on Trump winning?

This could be applied to the 2020 cycle though; Dems had 2 candidates but the nominee was clear fairly early in the cycle, Republicans had a pile, but basically Trump and then the not Trump camp was split between Cruz/Rubio/etc etc

The spot Bernie's in now is quite similar to the spot Trump was in last time around, only the Warren camp isn't never Bernie, he has die hard fans, and an unpopular opponent to run against in Trump (Trump had Clinton to run against)

It's way too soon to know anything about who's going to win other than it's not going to be Bloomberg (lol at the people who thought he would win the nomination) and that it's going to come down to turnout (sticking to sub 55% and Trump is re-elected, 60%+ and the Dem wins easily, anything inbetween and it could go either way)

So load the cannons if you think you're right, you can probably get evens if you shop around enough and find someone willing to go the other way, or Trump is only -140 or whatever atm varying by book

But you're not, because it's going to come down to turnout and down to how this year goes politically. For all we know Trump could broker a peace deal with North Korea or pass some significant domestic policy that boosts him or or his tax returns could drop and it turns out he wasn't a billionaire before being President and/or is laundering money for the Russian mob or whatever else or the economy could start to tank and head into a recession and tank his approval rating or whatever else. I mean literally every week it's a new scandal with Trump, he seems to somehow get through them all but something could stick at some point and his approval plummets or obviously if he becomes vastly more popular due to a legislative achievement or whatever that changes things too.

It's quite reasonable to think either side is -200 favourite or something at the moment (i'm partial towards anticipated high turnout being beneficial for the Dems but the current Dem candidates being somewhat flawed so that could change) but describing either side as a lock is ridiculous - I think the D side are small favs because I expect turnout to be high but it's way too far from election day to be able to say that with certainty, like a contested Dem convention where Bernie gets rat****ed despite having the most delegates or whatever could lead to the far left staying home, or Bernie gets the nomination and runs a poor campaign or whatever that turns off the middle class moderates, anything can happen.

10 months is a long time in politics especially in the current news cycle. I don't see any reason to bet now when we can bet with more complete info 6-7 months from now and not tie up the money for most of a year if it's not some long shot prop or whatever with a huge return, just betting a close to even money side this far out seems like poor use of bankroll in general

lol.

See, I'm not for at clueless!!

Yep!


KAG

Swoop, did you not follow the impeachment hearings?
Did you not notice that Republican lawmakers view what Trump does from a different lense? Do you really believe that any scandal can still hurt Trump? Trump is a different phenomena. Democrats, which I'm one, can't seem to recognize that still.
The right might only turn against him if he declares himself king or something so outrageous. And I stress might!

Dems have a chance, only if they are super motivated, no matter who the candidate, and come out in unprecedented numbers.

The right won't turn on him no matter what, I agree

The left despises him even more than Bush and didn't believe that Hillary could lose (I didn't believe it myself, I thought she was at least an 80/20 fav on election day and i'm a fairly typical D voter)

That's why it's coming down to turnout

Trump's base WILL turn out, but it's smaller than the overall number of left-leaning and never Trump moderates who are fired up to get rid of Trump, but the left (and young voters especially) sometimes turn out and sometimes don't and that's what the election will hinge on, turnout

High turnout, Dems will win, low turnout, Trump re-elected. The Democrats base is bigger than the Republican base in sheer numbers, but Republicans benefit from the electoral college giving rural votes more weight and more importantly from Democratic turnout not being as reliable as Republican turnout - if the Dems are fired up and turn out like in 2006/2008 or 2018 they'll win easily. If they are divided/depressed and don't turn up like in 2010/2014 they'll lose.

There's no way i'm betting anything until the Democratic convention at least but my gut instinct is that turnout will be high unless the Dems completely botch things between now and their convention

If turnout was 45% Democrats would never win and if turnout was 75% Republicans would never win in a Presidential election with their current voting bases/sets of policies etc I don't think I can emphasise how strongly correlated high turnout is to victory for the Ds and low turnout is to victory for the Rs

What are the best predictors of turnout in the 12 or so states that will decide the election?

Good thing turnout hasn't been below 49% or above 58% since 1968 (And the year it was 49% the dem won).

Better jump on that Dems +160 right now.

yea swoop if you really think its anyones game then id think you should be getting in on Dems +160. Even if you have to tie up money thats a huge edge

After the Bloomberg implosion last night, Sanders is down to -130 for the D nom. Starting to get into fair territory imo, not much value left, maybe a tiny bit.

The only path I see to him losing is the moderates VERY quickly unite behind 1 candidate, this would have to be like pre super tuesday. AND Warren stays in the whole way. And maybe her performance last night can pull a little bit of Bernies support.

But the moderates mostly hate each other. So I don't think it will happen. Klob and Pete hate each other. Everyone hates bloomberg. Bloomberg hates everyone. MAYBE Biden could get everyone behind, but I think Pete still wrongly thinks he can win and will stick around. And I don't think Bloomberg is going to just drop 500 milly or W.E and then drop out pre ST where he spent all that money in those states. And if Warren really believes her agenda, and she keeps finishing outside the top 2 eveywhere, at some point she needs to drop out and endorse Sanders.

Just too much discord IMO, Sanders has the strongest base. But yeah if like everyone but Warren and Biden dropped out tomorrow and it stayed that way through Super Tuesday, that's the path for Biden.

Every post in this thread made by people like you has given me a good laugh

Talking about trump's behaviour without realising what the dems did to get him impeached lol

Then actually being scared trump might call himself king lol

I bet you toss and turn every night worrying about it

***** lol

This is supposed to be a discussion about betting really, not about our personal political opinions. And I won't derail it.
But no, I sleep very well, thank you.

I'm strongly considering it - I think it's much closer to a pickem atm

As you said the main issue is tying up a bunch of money for 10 months - it feels like even if it's a +30% ROI or whatever the utility of extra cash in the bankroll being turned over dozens of times is probably better, plus there's obviously the possibility that i'm wrong and the market is right etc

I really, really doubt either side is going to be a huge fav as of the conventions (unless it's obvious by then who will win) and i'd rather get the Dems at even money a few weeks from the election if I think fair is -160 or whatever and i'm whacking a decent percentage of the roll then than taking them now if I think fair is -120 or whatever just due to the utility of the situation and of course there's the possibility that things break Trump's way this year and i'm stuck with a bet that's breakeven vs market or even losing vs market that also ties up a ton of the roll for a year for no reason

Again, I will get involved financially closer to the election and I do like the price, and if I could 'lock in' +160 without tying up the money for a year I would obviously since I think it's between a flip and Dems being a small fav but i'd rather just wait and see - I might wind up finding a Dems to win the popular vote line or something at a ridiculous price somewhere that's a lot better if it appears that turnout is going to be high, as there's no scenario where the Dems lose the popular vote but win the electoral college but a ton of scenarios where the Dems win the popular vote but lose the electoral college

There's a high probability the 'Dems win popular vote line' will be better EV wise than Dems to win the Presidency even if it looks like they're going to win a few weeks out or whatever if that turns out to be the correct side

If I had to tie up say half my roll right now on a specific line for the election on a close to pickem line (eg not maxing Dems to win Cali or Republicans to win Alabama or whatever) i'd probably fire Dems to win the popular vote at -130ish or whatever the market has at the moment

Right now I see -250 for dems to win popular vote. It was -400ish when I started checking these out a month or so ago I believe

I just googled and read an article that said Trump had steamed in from +175 to +110 to win the popular vote although it didn't cite which book had Dems popular vote at -130

Granted that article was full of garbage analysis and 'advice' and the only book I checked had -200

Might be able to find some square book that at some point will give me -1xx on Ds to win popular vote if the electoral college is a flip at that point who knows I don't really want to get involved until the Democratic primary is basically done and we see whether they unite around the nominee or not (or at least to a great enough degree that they're not toast in the general)

In any case not getting involved yet there's plenty of times for the market to do stupid things and while I think +160 is +EV on D to win the general, i'm not sure i'll be the *most* plus EV bet available this cycle

This is a weird election in that neither Bloomberg nor Trump fit very well with the typical platforms of their party. Both candidates actually appeal to some of the same people. Bloomberg has a lot more in common with Trump than he has with Sanders.

I'm not sure if he could logistically pull it off without the DNC's funding, but just based on ideologies, it's interesting to think about how Sanders would perform as a third candidate in a race between Bloomberg and Trump. I'd expect Sanders would overwhelmingly win the far left, and turnout on the far left would be huge if the DNC nominated Bloomberg. So much impotent rage and millennials posting Instagram stories of them checking the box next to Bernie's name. I'd also expect that Bloomberg steals a lot of centre-right votes from Trump.

None of them would reach 270 electoral votes. Then the House would vote on the President and Senate would vote on the Vice President. Imagine Bernie as the President and Pence as the VP. Then we could make bets on

WILL BERNIE SANDERS BE ASSASSINATED IN HIS FIRST TERM AS PRESIDENT?
[ ] YES -150
[ ] NO +120

First, it's important to understand how the House votes in that scenario. It's not 1 representative, 1 vote; it's 1 state, 1 vote. If no candidate gets a majority within a state, that state doesn't give a vote for a candidate. They will keep voting until 26 states pick the same candidate. Obviously this process favors Trump as the composition of state votes is much more likely to resemble the Senate composition than the House. Second, it's hard to imagine many scenarios where enough Democrats rebel against their party and vote for an independent over their own party's nominee. Sure, AOC types might, but not your average Democrat congress(wo)man. And even if it started looking like Bernie might be able to peel off enough Democrats because they don't want Trump, there's a decent chance they cut a deal with some centrist Republicans to vote for Bloomberg to prevent a Socialist from getting into the White House.

I wonder if this were to happen crazy/impossible as it is. Would Pence just immediately resign? What would even be the point? VP has like no power. I guess repubs would want the tiebreaker so would probably force him to stick around.

i know bernie is amazing or whatever and is dominating, but what do you political pundits think about these two fades

Field vs. Bernie Minnesota +160 (klobuchar polling good there, her home state)
Biden to win Alabama +140

Klob and Bernie were close last I saw in Minnesota polls, but the Momentum is continuing to pull Bernie's way. Also if she drops out pre minnesota, bernie wins in a landslide, it's a very progressive state. (which she should but idk if she will, but there's certainly a chance it happens) So I don't like that one. If Minnesota were tomorrow I'd say it's an okay bet.

Alabama I like that one more but I'm not sure when they vote. *checks date* Alabama is super tuesday. So that's pretty soon. Yeah deep south is Biden territory (his only territory remaining really) I'm kinda surprised by those odds is Bloomberg polling well there or something? *checks polls* Polls show him crushing but there haven't been any recently. Most recent is from July. I know South carolina has gone from similar number to these really old polls from Alabama, to basically Biden 55/45 against Sanders. But I would suspect Alabama is more pro Biden than SC?

The lack of data would make me want to stay away but my gut reaction is I like the Alabama bet. PredictIt has Biden still as the favorite, with a 45% chance so maybe like +110 to +120 if I'm doing the math right.So according to that you're getting a little edge with +140.


However they don't like your Minnesota bet. They have Bernie at a 70% chance, you'd be better taking your money there to bet on Klob, she's trading at 30% so you would get better than 3 to 1 (+300) to win Minnesota. And she's the only once who has any kinda chance other than Bernie there imo.

Math was off on my predictit payout for Klob. You would get 2.333 to 1 if she wins.

Is predictit generally sharper than Asian sportsbooks for election odds?

Who could say for sure, you'd have to do some serious long term data analysis to be able to answer that. I tend to use it as more of a ballparker.

538 now has Biden 64% to win South Carolina so I'm confused

Do we make fun of Poogs for having Biden at + odds in South Carolina still? Or should we wait to see if he loses