If you have a crowded field, getting a consistent plurality with 25% of the vote will win you the nomination if it's winner-take-all. If it's proportionate, and your ceiling is 35%, you're not getting a majority of the delegates. And if the party establishment hates you, and there are superdelegates who get to vote starting on the second ballot, you're not going to get the nomination.
They would prefer a second trump term than bernie leading the charge imo and that is why he has no chance i reckon
Very hard to win when the establishment does not back you
What do we think of intra-party H2H polling? Do people like the idea of a Bloomberg more than they actually like him? He's getting bid up big on PredictIt lately so may be time to fade.
I don't get the Bloom hype. I'd rather bet on Biden pulling some Frankenstein **** at the convention. At least he'll have delegates before super tues. Hell, I even like Steyer more who seemingly has a more diverse coalition with regards to age and race and may get a Nevada bump. Oh and he's actually liberal, so that helps too given its a dem primary.
Still, I think Sanders is somewhat undervalued. Voters, like everyone, are dumb, so it's not like those supporting a centrist will automatically support another centrist when their centrist drops out. They have all kinds of weird reasons for supporting candidates other than their positions and electability. I think prediction markets price in too much of that "oh if Warren drops all her voters will go to Bern," but that's not really how it goes. I think the individual matters quite a bit. The markets get caught up in the "progressive vs centrist" narrative imo.
Bloomberg's rise seems utterly absurd to me. Yeah he's rich. Cool. Lots of ads. Wow. Who are all these magical, LIBERAL people just dying to vote for this guy in a month? Is he going to have some killer CNN town hall? Stand out in a 8 person debate? Who's minds will be changed by this milquetoast frisker? He's not exactly an exciting candidate. He's the type who needs party infrastructure behind him, despite the money. Or a grassroots movement. No one has ever sat out these early states and made noise before anyway. It's not happening.
Bloomberg is a massive fade at current prices imo, he's been uncontested on the airwaves and there's probably more negative stuff on him out there than there is on Biden plus when the other candidates go negative on his record on minorities if need be he's in trouble
I'd be shocked if Bloomberg is the nominee he spent millions on re-electing Pat Toomey in PA in... 2016. He endorsed Dubya for reeection. He is the stop and frisk guy. He is not a real Democrat
I'm sure the Dems like the idea of a progressive with infinite campaign funds who is willing to fight dirty etc but Bloomberg is very flawed. Maybe if Steyer had Bloomberg's net worth but he's a regular billionaire not an infinite resources billionaire
I'm actually leaning towards Bernie beating the inevitable moderate now because the moderates are so fractured between 4 candidates and they all have different flaws and bases - especially if Warren drops out after bricking Super Tuesday a lot of her support will go to Bernie and it's hard to see a 1 on 1 contest immediately after ST
What about this new news that Bloomberg is considering running with Hillary? Just a scam to maybe win a primary? Should I back of my Bloomberg no primaries won +700 bet?
He'd be insane to pick Hillary as VP. Not even considering whether it would help him win, just because if he actually won, being a heartbeat away from a Clinton taking the presidency would be an absolute death wish. His helicopter would crash during his first week of office.
Unrelatedly, I just joined bookmaker and tried to deposit, but the cashier window just gives me a spinning wheel forever and never actually loads. I chatted with a rep, but he was some moron who just told me to clear my cookies, which I did but of course it didn't work. I don't care that much about not getting money on the site, but if it's a simple solution any of you guys know of, let me know.
Decided to drop my Bernie Iowa position on predictit. Seems like the only real "move". From what I read, this recount thing is a complete ****ing joke.
I agree with TomG and think shorting Bloomberg is free money. Bernie is a runaway train; he's on track to unite the party and have enough delegates to win on the first ballot.
The establishment with desperately try to rally around Bloomberg after Bernie wins SC - force everyone else out - but it will be too late.
I think sites that haven't paid out both Bernie and Pete will end up canceling the Iowa bet. AP will never call a winner and eventually it won't matter who won.
Too many sites had no rules on what a "win" was and people will complain about vote vs. sde
He leads every dem in head to head polling and his opponent would be trump. Bloomberg would have a way harder time "uniting."
Bloomberg will never win over the progressives, especially with the audio that has been circling around this week. He is DOA in this new iteration of the Democratic party.
Pete and Bloomberg have minority problems, Amy has lack of charisma and throws things at staff problems and Biden has can't stop saying and doing stupid things problems
A non-flawed moderate could and probably would beat Bernie but I just don't see it in this field anymore
I see absolutely no universe in which Hillary is Bloomberg's running mate, partially because he won't get the nomination, partially because why would she want to run for Vice President and partially because at this point she's too toxic to run even among the Democratic base, she adds nothing to the ticket and she won't want to damage her legacy where at least she was a Secretary of State/Senator/First Lady etc, she doesn't get to be President but she had a reasonable career etc not to mention Hillary is an establishment moderate, having two of those on a ticket isn't exactly uniting the base.
There's about a zero percent chance Hillary runs for anything this cycle.
I mean even random posters in the thread are like hurr durr the Clintons have people killed, it's too ingrained in the American consciousness, whether correctly or incorrectly that 'Hillary Clinton=Bad' not to mention she lost to ****ing Trump of all people and Liberals are still mad at that. She's just a uniquely terrible candidate in that she's absolutely hated by the right and the left activist base doesn't like her either.
If Bloomberg wants to play the 'i'm not a racist/misogynist' card he needs a Kamala Harris or a Stacy Abrams to trot out for the token 'look at my black/woman friend' but it's super transparent if he does.
I see no universe in which Bloomberg ever wins, and fading him is the freest money since fading Hillary and Tulsi all cycle whenever they shot up in the prediction markets
I'm still certain this is going to come down to turnout and especially turnout in swing states. Sub 55% and Trump is likely re-elected, 60%+ and the Democrat wins easily, somewhere inbetween those numbers and it could go either way.
I'd imagine we'll have a better idea what the turnout will be around convention time when the campaign is in full swing and we know how energised the D/R bases are to vote. A lot can happen between now and then.
I actually still think Biden is the second favourite for the Dem nomination after Bernie somehow. No moderate's going to beat Bernie without minority support and he's the only one with a chance to get enough of it.
I saw i clip of a Democrat from the CBC - who just endorsed Bloomberg - attacking Bernie on cable news as "not a real Democrat". Do you think the moron host pointed out this glaring hypocrisy?
He doesn't have "black problems". He has an "informed voter problem". Old, low information blacks are flocking to this sack of shits campaign. It's all good though, there isn't enough of them to derail the Bernie train. And we'll pick up our fair share of low info, late-breakers, who just want to back a winner.
Regarding Biden: it all hinges on Nevada and SC. If he finishes 3 or 4 here and loses SC - he's done.
I think sites that haven't paid out both Bernie and Pete will end up canceling the Iowa bet. AP will never call a winner and eventually it won't matter who won.
Too many sites had no rules on what a "win" was and people will complain about vote vs. sde
my book counted my bernie iowa bet as a loss the changed it to no action fwiw
Bloomberg's been both a Republican and an Independent for longer than he's been a Democrat
Most low info voters aren't aware of that or all of his sexual harassment/hostile work environment/stop and frisk/racist statements etc history
Now that he's becoming a top tier candidate a lot of that is going to come out
It feels like all four of the moderates are just too flawed to get the nomination for different reasons. They might at a brokered convention but if Bernie has the most delegates heading in and a moderate gets the nod instead, that's the one scenario where Trump is probably most likely to be reelected due to depressed turnout out of all of the possibilities
To be honest I expected Warren to win the nomination until a month and a bit ago. All she had to do was not **** up the last couple months of the campaign but she did.
I think the only Democrat who is a clear underdog to Trump in the election is Bloomberg because he'd most heavily depress turnout on the left despite his infinity dollars.
And yeah re: Biden he at least needs a close second in South Carolina and a top 3-4 finish in Nevada or he's done
It doesn't really make sense for any of the top 6 candidates to drop out before Super Tuesday though, may as well collect some delegates especially with the chance of a brokered convention and after ST at least some of the top six will no longer have a real path to the nomination
