PTP, Bloomberg is drawing more live with "the black" than his record might indicate. Old blacks in the south are largely low-info dipshits who do what the TV tells them. My instincts tell me Bernie will get a lot of these former Biden supporters but Bloomberg will get more.

I reiterate: huge value on Bloomberg. He's the one the establishment will rally around in a brokered convention.

Swoop, I was one of the people who "thought I was smart" because I bet on Trump. But it doesn't take a genius to see Trump's potential rust-belt strength in opposition to the democrats who had zero credibility there (Obama crushed Hillary on NAFTA in 2008 and was shilling the TPP as he stumped for Hillary by 2016) and have the good sense to take a shot at 4/1.

Isn't this standard sharp behavior? Have well thought out reasons for taking a position that often contrasts public sentiment and media conditioning.

betonlin and others have SOTU props with $100 limit

i'm on

Trump says Kim Jong-Un +170
Length o82.5 mins +140
Economy said u5.5 times +260
China said u6.5 times +140

Is this sharp? I just needed action to watch this thing

Black voters going Trump. I think you college educated fools who live in gentrified neighborhoods need to get out of your bubble and meet and talk to regular black folks.

And LOL at thinking you guys are better people than them (which is fully layered into the bigoted post made by vafongool). Who's more low-info - a polisci grad or a typical black citizen of the South? Having interacted with many of both, it's the polisci grad.

This post is a bit of a mishmash of 6 months worth of posting. I'm not entirely sure what you're talking about but if you have a specific point then let's go over it.

Economy and China won! Other two lost, but easy 2 hundo

Who knows Bloomberg might buy the nomination due to the weakness of the other establishment candidates but I just don't see it

We'll find out soon enough im still uninvolved from a betting perspective. Not sure a high enough percentage of voters are low info for the democratic primaries and caucuses to nominate Bloomberg on name recognition through ads alone. My gut instinct is to fade him in the 20s and tbh I'd be tempted to fade Bernie too at close to 50 even though he's a very legit shot now I think the dem race is still wide open

Someone's got to win it bro.

I'm honored you think I graduated college. I'm a white-trash **** who barely graduated high school. I could give you a movie quote that explains why low class whites like to look down on blacks. "If you aren't better than a N-word, who are you better than?"

It's a two horse race now: Bernie, Bloomberg. As hated a Bernie is, you'd have to be nuts not to take Bloomberg seriously. He won't win a majority of delegates or anything, but he is the only candidate who will emerge from a likely brokered convention.

Anyone know the probability our Bernie to win Iowa tickets get cancelled since the whole thing is a disaster? Got to be close to 100% at this point

Need to flip Wisconsin, Michigan, and/or Pennsylvania...
Really think they're going to turn to Bloomberg for that? LOLz
Off the board way more likely than an effeminate, billionaire New Yorker if it's a brokered convention. I know he donates a ton but the power brokers aren't prepared to lose the presidency to make Bloomy the short happy

Bernie's chances of getting the nom vs Republican chances of winning the election.

If the establishment cared about winning, super delegates would have flipped to Bernie in 2016 when anyone with two brain cells to rub together could see a Clinton nomination put the entire ****ing rust belt at risk. They don't give a **** about winning. They only care about one thing: keeping the gravy train on the tracks.

Joke of the day: What did socialists have before candles? Electricity.

I'm not even that anti-Sanders. Out of all the Democratic nominees I want him the most at the moment (besides Yang). I will give him some credit for not caving to the Establishment and staying consistent with his values. There is no doubt there are SOME good things he would get done. He said he would deschedule marijuana on day 1, that is clearly a win for the country in my opinion. Hopefully a Republican senate could keep him from doing all the crazy radical stuff he wants and he will just use executive power to get some things done that would actually help the country.

Also Trump v. Sanders is by far the best entertainment value and it's not even close. I think he's going to win the nod at this point, the current narrative is really going in his favor.

It's also kind of weird to me that as he is going up in the polls he is going full communist. There have been some socialist-based policies that have a modicum to a medium amount of success in Europe, so why is talking about national rent control? That is one that is just almost a complete failure across the board. You would think that he would stick with the more moderate talking points of his campaign.

You might want to read some counter points regarding rent control that you probably aren't reading in wall st journal - or whatever the **** rag informs you.
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/11/rent-...ability-supply

That was actually pretty interesting. That being said it didn't place a huge emphasis on the often deteriorating condition of the rent controlled properties which is one of the strongest arguments against the policy.

Cody the 90 day price chart i'm seeing for the republicans chance of winning the white house (at the link below) looks a lot higher than what the chart you posted has on like 11/5...is yours from a different source?

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election

Imagine every nomination being a disaster like this. So what metric is used for winning Iowa.

SDEs? Total Vote? Or just delegates? Bookmaker just says "winner"

SDE looks like Pete
Vote Bernie
Delegates tie

?

Bernie's price is on the left, Republicans price is on the right. It confused me at first too.

I predicted both Buttigieg and Bernie to win so I feel like a genius now.

how much edge would you need to place these long term bets at like 1.1 1.2 lol

if the bet results in 4 weeks and you miss out on on 28 days of betting at 50 bets per day

how much do you lose by placing large chunks of your bankroll on this?

Depends on how you utilize your capital. If you're turning your entire bankroll over often then these bets make little sense. If you have decent cash reserves then getting 15%+ effective yearly return is very good on Predicit, especially considering that it's pretty liquid. Nothing to scoff at for sure.