I hate this post and this person and every post like this. No one knows you. If you want to take issue with something swoop said, then do it. If what hes saying is so crazy that you shot coffee out of your nose (LOL!!!!) then it should be easy for you to pick apart his post. Otherwise GTFO. You flippin pssssy!!!....Dude!!!

What is there to take apart thou? His whole post is just one opinion piece where he says **** like this without any proof to take apart lol

lol this one had to take the cake

especially from someone who models for a living

he would be shocked if a non white women wasn't in the top 20% of IQs lol

where does this place on the bell curve

I'm a US citizen too I just live in Australia

If you think i'm wrong about stuff feel free to offer me prices on various prop bets you think i'd like or whatever, happy to bet at large numbers if I think I have the right side.

I also do have a polsci degree I just obv became a poker player then transitioned to sports bettor instead because there's more money in it. I have a different perspective to Americans who have never lived outside of America obviously, because i've lived in Australia most of my life and only spent a few years in America total in mostly 3-6 month blocks (i've lived in Colorado as a kid, spent a lot of time in Nevada as an adult and a bit of time in FL/HI/CA as well) - yes, obviously I consider myself more Australian than American as I do live here primarily but I have both citizenships and consider myself both Australian and American.

I'm still up a ton lifetime politics betting, and remember half of my bet last cycle was Clinton to win the popular vote so I only lost half or so (in hindsight obv should have loaded pop vote not split it with electoral college)

The people who were on Trump think they're a genius because their AQ beat AK because he won the electoral college while losing the popular vote by 2m+, if you redistribute 100k votes or so you change the result of the election

My uncle, a die hard Trumper in a competitive state, died of old age between 2016 and now. One of my cousins became of voting age and is a Berniecrat. Yeah, anecdotally this is worthless, but the point is demographic changes are real.

Yes, Trump can absolutely win the election still. I'm pretty confident he's not a favourite, because things are more likely to stay the same or get worse for him than improve. The people who don't like him aren't going to change their mind, the people who do like him aren't going to change their mind.

Republicans vote more often, but there are more Democratic leaning people in America. Republicans win low turnout elections, Democrats win high turnout elections. That's not going to change any time soon.

The Democratic candidates all have various liabilities, but at the end of the day this is still going to come down to turnout.

If it's a high turnout election the Democrat will win and if it's a low turnout election Trump will win.

I'm not involved financially yet because there's no reason to tie up my money for most of 2020 when we don't have complete information yet

It's entirely possible I might bet on trump to be reelected in the end if that's what the data is saying. I think that's unlikely but it's not impossible. As of right now my gut instinct is he's about a 40-60 dog, but again, it's way way too far out for analysis to be meaningful, market makes him a tiny fav etc you're free to bet on whoever you want but nobody can say with any certainty what's going to happen this far out

I live in Australia, i've spent time in NZ, various parts of Asia etc in the last few years

I probably have a better feel than most for how America is viewed under Trump compared to Obama when contrasting with someone who lives in America and doesn't travel

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ocasio-cortez-resume/

By all accounts she's pretty strong academically, and disagreeing with her policies doesn't mean she isn't intelligent

I mean, I disagree with people like Shapiro and Peterson about a lot of stuff but clearly they're overwhelmingly likely to be in the top 20% or so IQ wise as well

There is a TON of dead weight in Congress on both the right and left.

I'd pretty happily bet my entire net worth that if all of congress had to take an IQ test, AOC would definitely score in the top half and i'd take her to be in the top quarter at evens for a few units.

Obviously there's no way for us to test this as congress isn't going to sit down and take IQ tests

Re stuff like the public option, Americans are less satisfied with their healthcare than every other western country on average and basically everywhere has a public option, and no country that has implemented a public option has been like 'this doesn't work let's go back to the American system'. Literally none of them. Even conservative parties in Australia/Europe won't touch the public option because it works.

The rest of it is obviously my personal opinion and yeah, people will have different options about things, you're free to vote however you want, bet on whatever you want and hold whatever opinions you want

At the risk of triggering Swoop to write another self-indulgent novel where he tells us more about his polisci degree, the bit about Republicans winning low turnout elections and Democrats high turnout elections is really dumb. Here's the last 30 years of turnout:

1992 (dem win): 55.2%
1996 (dem win): 49%
2000 (rep win): 50.3%
2004 (rep win): 55.7%
2008 (dem win): 58.2%
2012 (dem win): 54.9%
2016 (rep win): 55.7%

This thread is deteriorating into just a politics discussion, and Swoop is most at fault for it recently. (Seriously, Swoop, look over that last post and realize you're just shitting up this thread with your political takes that no one gives a **** about and it has no value with respect to betting on the election.) The one relevant take he made that if voter turnout is high, Dems win, and if it's low, Reps win, I'm not sure how true that is. Obviously there's the data hedgie posted, but I think that may be missing the point a bit. I think Swoop's point is that in this election higher turnout favors Dems because there are way more registered Dems in the country than Reps. It seems plausible that if the electorate is 55-45 that a higher turnout raises the Dems' probability, but I'm sure anyone can think of scenarios where that wouldn't be so. I'm not sure if we're living in a scenario where that is so.

Apologies for the last few posts being a semi derail.

Yes, my point is there are more registered Dems but Republicans turn out to vote more frequently. Higher turnout, in the current era, favours Democrats and lower turnout favours Republicans.

Like in 2018 midterms Dems win via turnout and in the 2014 midterms Republicans won via lack of tutnout

A total of 50.3 percent of eligible voters voted in 2018, compared to a turnout of just 36.7 of eligible voters in 2014.

I think anything pre Obama era is fairly irrelevant to analysing stuff in the current era of hyper polarisation in American politics where Democrat or Republican is a core part of a higher percentage of people's identities and there are less true swing voters

This election will be won or lost for trump by his ability to crater turnout by making it a 'both sides are garbage I'm staying home or voting third party' election for people who lean dem but don't vote every election. That's done by driving up his opponents negatives and trying to suppress the vote in dem leaning areas and trying to prevent Dems from uniting around their nominee. I don't know whether he'll succeed but that's the game plan Republicans should and probably will use.

Yay anecdotes. Good job suggesting literally the same strategy any candidate from either party uses against the opposition. Definitely top 20% (in Congress?) IQ insight there.

Dems will be looking to get voters to the polls/registration drives for young/minority voters likely to vote for them etc, Republicans focus more heavily on suppressing the vote in Democratic leaning areas/purging rolls of voters unlikely to be in their camp etc

If you think i'm wrong i'm happy to try and come to terms on a bet for up to 10k+ on the result being correlated with the turnout, if you're interested lmk and we can come up with something

Market has Trump at -125ish right now with no conditions on turnout. If turnout is below 60% i'm not looking for action, but if you think there is no correlation between turnout and D/R win chances i'm sure we can set terms we both think are +EV for our side.

What odds would you give me on D win if turnout is on the high side?

Like if turnout is 65%+ I would take the Dems to win at -120 all day with the condition that Trump is the Republican nominee and at 63% turnout i'd happily take the Dem wins at evens. Might consider lower turnout numbers at closer to market odds, but not looking for less than 60% turnout if backing D side

Similarly if turnout is super low would back Trump but i'd be shocked if the turnout is that low, like if turnout is sub 50% i'd back Trump at market prices but I think that's super unlikely, I expect turnout to be in the low 60s a lot and if it's an outlier I expect it to be on the high side not the low side. I don't see any universe where turnout is 5%+ lower than Trump/Clinton this time.

Anyway instead of arguing in a meaningless fashion throw some prop bets at me that you like the other side of and we can find an escrow if we can agree to something or let me know if you like anything above - open offer to any reputable poster willing to escrow (i'll do the same)

TL;DR high turnout is correlated with D chances of winning, low turnout is correlated with R chances of winning, anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't understand the political climate in 2020 and i'm willing to put up up to five figures in sidebets along those lines if anyone cares to take me up on it on props along the lines of Low turnout = R win, High turnout = D win with the latter being preferable

Well you just took apart specific things he said.

Im not really defending him and honestly I skim a lot of what he writes as its always way too long and the run on sentences are tough. But hes a good contributor most of the time. I just hate a rando hit and running saying "what you wrote is dumb hee hee." I mean maybe it is. But have an example at least

Don't like the SC bets at all. When Bernie wins Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada - who believes Biden will hang on in SC? I'm heavy on Bernie in SC (latest post and courier have us down a handful) Texas too (more encouraging polling there also). Was a lot of value on Bernie in some of these southern states based on the momentum he'll generate by winning the first 3.

Even if Bernie runs the table in the first 3 states, Biden would still be a favorite in SC. A bad run for Biden would probably give you a better entry point, but definitely still the favorite.

Biden used to lead by 30 points in SC. Bernie is now within striking distance (down only 5 points). When he wins the first 3 states - it shatters Biden's whole argument: electability. Bernie needs to stay on the social security attack to keep cutting into Biden's main constituency: olds.

Biden is cooked and its going to be Bloomberg as the anti-bernie, establishment choice. Probably some value on him as I expect the establishment. to rally around him in a brokered convention if Bernie doesn't have enough to clinch on the first round of voting.

But if Bernie wins the first 4 - he'll win on the first round.

Not tying up money for 9 months without a very high edge but would be willing to look at this closer to the election. Would also just create a market on Fairlay rather than escrowing.

Bernie wins the first group 14-1. They had to vote early so they can go to work.

Is this going to be a landslide?

Here are the polls from SC: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...outh-carolina/
Yeah, Bernie was within 5 on the most recent poll, but it was a C-rated pollster, and they had Bernie behind by 7 in their previous poll from December.

There's only been one high-quality SC poll, which was about a month ago and had Biden up by 21. 538 aggregates everything, accounting for poll age, quality, size, and national polls, and says Biden is up 17.5%. That's a huge lead and as long as Biden doesn't finish embarrassingly badly (distant 3rd in IA), he'll maintain it.


BTW, cherry-picking polls that support your favorite candidate is a very square move. Not very different from believing that your home-town football team's draft picks are going to give them exactly the tools they need to win the Super Bowl next year.

Not sure if I've said it ITT or not, but yes I think if bernie wins trump will win in a landslide like we've never seen in our lives in a US presidential election.

Bernie's message of we need to burn the economy to the ground because it isn't working doesn't work when we are seeing unemployment near 40 year lows, wage growth for the middle class that most of us have never seen in our lives and the middle class has the best asset-to-debt ratio today its ever had (since the ratio started to get recorded).

bookmaker has a 11.4k limit on bernie iowa at -340

seems like free money or a scam

PTP, there is this thing called momentum. If Bernie wins today I feel pretty ****ing good about all of my other bets.

You'd have to be a sucker not to have some action on him in SC just based on the likely scenario of him winning the first 3 and the momentum that's going to generate.

He's gonna win but that seems like an insanely steep price.

Biden is getting BTFO

It's not that steep... especially given that Bernie is a lock.

Do you think Bookmaker funded the app used in Iowa and then hacked it to maximize their profit?

Did anybody bet on "The caucus' app will **** up and no one will know who won"? Gotta admit I didn't see that one coming.

If Biden really did come in 4th, that's the kind of embarrassingly bad result that puts SC in play. Who's next in line for black voter support after Biden? Maybe Bernie? Certainly not Buttigieg or Bloomberg.

Bloomberg's odds looking a lot better, and prescient to get into the race when he did.

At this point I don't see anybody who can individually put together a majority of delegates. Looking like maybe Bernie will get a plurality, but significant shares to Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Bloomberg? Yang, Steyer, Klobuchar will also pick up some scraps depending on individual states' rules for viability.

If it's a brokered convention, it's going to be ugly. The only person I can think of right now who would be acceptable to most of the party is named Michelle Obama.

From another thread a week or so ago:

You, me and bovada know who are next president will be.